[Girl Blog] Sorry 親愛的, I'm in love with eSports. - Page 2

On September 12 2012 12:19 Enders116 wrote:

Don't tell me you're going in the direction with this post that I think you are...

If Taiwan actually reunites with the mainland, I'm gonna be pissed. I wanted to stay there for the rest of my life. The only other place I'd consider is SG, and it already suffers from overpopulation / overimmigration issues.

Back on topic: I'm a pretty bitchy guy sometimes, just like Lu Xun (魯迅), whom I've learned hated basically everything about the traditional culture of China and hated everything about most uneducated Chinese people, and would probably hate modern day Mainland China...

On September 12 2012 13:48 Funnytoss wrote:


I'm not sure where you think I'm going with this, haha. I much prefer Taiwan the way it is, and I think life would be much worse under CCP rule. What I was trying to say is that Taiwan is pretty much its own thing, and is better off being an independent country, rather than claiming to represent all of China like it used to. That claim is partly to blame for the mess Taiwan finds itself in with China, though of course Chinese nationalism is the primary cause of conflict here.

Lemme know if you end up coming to Taiwan. I'm more of a BW guy, but I'd cheer you on regardless.

On September 13 2012 07:17 Shady Sands wrote:

Heh. Interestingly the CCP's internal view is that they just want military basing rights on the island. Actually having to take responsibility for the lives of 23 million Taiwanese is something they feel would be a headache, as they are already getting a lot of heat from 7 million HKers even though they don't actually have any direct influence there.

The CCP's actual view is that since 50% of China's GDP is concentrated along its coastal strip, having a Taiwan with tons of cruise missiles and airbases within striking range of all that economic productivity is unacceptable. (Taiwan in the PLA is not referred to not as a country or even an island--just as a "pao tai" or "cannon platform".)

While the emotional impetus for taking back Taiwan is Chinese pride; there are real national security concerns that drive China's policy towards the island.

What I've always thought interesting though is why Taiwan can't just give China the basing rights while getting everything else it wants--indefinite de facto independence; advantageous trade terms; hell, even becoming an offshore gambling mecca like Cuba was for the US in the 1950s. But then again, I have no insight into the mind of the Taiwanese electorate--maybe other TLers can help?

On September 13 2012 10:56 Funnytoss wrote:


I don't presume to speak with utmost confidence about the preferences of the Taiwanese electorate, but I'll share what I can regarding what I've found out both through personal experience and some academic research.

It goes without saying that the PRC worries about Taiwan from a strategic perspective, and the U.S. pretty much acquiesced to China's terms on arms sales. It has been fairly consistent about refusing to provide Taiwan with offensive weapons such as Harpoons and SLAMs that could be used against ground targets, choosing instead to sell primarily air superiority fighters and surface-to-air-missile units. It also shut down the Taiwan nuclear weapon plans, so it's clear that it wants to retain the status quo.

From Taiwan's strategic perspective, it knows that China's military advantage is only going to keep growing. Back in the 80s and 90s, Taiwan would have actually held the upper hand in a potential maritime invasion. China had limited amphibious assault capability, and its air force consisted mostly of 2nd gen fighters with limited range like the J-7 and J-8. But now, with improved ballistic missile technology that threatens to take many of Taiwan's airfields out of commission within minutes (and Taiwan lacking a comprehensive missile defense technology that would be able to take down enough of the incoming missiles), plus the improved composition of China's Air Force (J-10s and J-11s/Su-27s taking up the frontlines) makes playing defense impossible. Taiwan never had the ability to hold off a determined invasion indefinitely, as it is extremely vulnerable to supply interdiction. As such, its goal was originally to hold off for roughly 2 weeks, giving enough time for the U.S. and possibly Japan to intervene. Now it's doubtful Taiwan could hold for even that long, and so there's been more interest in producing weapons of deterrence, which is why Taiwan decided to develop its own cruise missile programs in lieu of U.S. refusal to sell.

Honestly, I feel the CCP doesn't really give a shit about the Taiwanese people, it's all about their own national security and international dickwaving. To be fair, the U.S. does this as well.

There is no way in hell Taiwan will "give" China basing rights, because essentially there's nothing to stop China from taking everything else it wants. Taiwan has absolutely no reason to trust China's word - it's clear from China's international bullying of Taiwan and reducing of space and status that it's a one-sided negotiation. China can't have an independent Taiwan, especially if it will be stationing weapons there, and so the democratic government (and to a certain extent, society and education) would have to go. Trade terms could certainly be arranged.

Fuck gambling. That would just turn Taiwan into a total shithole. It's not like we don't have our own economy and lifestyle - Vegas is an interesting place to visit, but it totally transforms the character and nature of the country.

Taiwan's feelings towards China are somewhat complex. On one hand, there are many who have been taught to feel an emotional connection to "China" - but it should be very clear that this "China" doesn't mean the "People's Republic of China" - rather, the land and the cultural heritage. When the KMT got its ass kicked and had to retreat to Taiwan, it created a conflict between Taiwan and China (part of the Cold War, really) and taught animosity towards the CCP and the "Communist Bandits". Of course, times have changed. China's government is as brutal and intolerant of dissent as ever, but its economic prowess and potential have proved quite alluring to many Taiwanese businesses, and in that realm it's quite clear that many benefit from trade with China.

But the Taiwanese have gone through a lot of shit to get where they are today. The democracy you see now was pretty much forced out of the KMT, which arguably lifted martial law and re-implemented elections due to lack of other viable options. Freedom of speech, free elections (to the extent that money corrupts like it does everywhere else)... many died for these rights, and Taiwan's not going to give them up for nothing. There's no reason to believe that China would just take basing rights, while giving Taiwan everything else. As such, you may as well sell out the entire country and just unify and get it all over with. The current ruling party (KMT) favors closer business relations with China, but it understands that economic integration and political integration do not receive the same amount of support, and that if they directly advocated for unification, it might create a large enough backlash to put the opposition DPP back in power.

My thoughts are that like it or not, Taiwan will probably unify (I really dislike the term "re-unify" because I feel it's historically inaccurate. The PRC has never ruled Taiwan, and the two countries have developed in their own way. Not that one is necessarily better or worse than the other, but there's no reason to lump them together except for nationalist purposes and framing) on China's terms. It won't happen anytime soon, because Taiwan still has enough leverage, but as Taiwan becomes (comparatively) weaker compared to China, it will receive less and less international support, and when even the United States decides that good business relations with China are more important than other things such as human rights and free speech... then Taiwan will be forced to the table to see what it can salvage.

One hopes that China will be a more open and democratic society at that point.