EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eoZmZ.jpg)
Round of 8 Review and Analysis
Group A
![[image loading]](http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/1463/kokro8leenockvstop1.jpg)
This was about the only time in all of his games that Leenock’s ultralisks did anything useful
If there’s one thing you should learn from Group A, it’s that ultralisks are still pretty terrible. Okay, I’m kidding, but only partially. Leenock did a rather poor job of showing why zergs should use ultras, as every time he decided to use them they cost him crucial games that he could have won. Overall though, ultras alone did not bring down Leenock, as there were numerous other factors that contributed to his inglorious exit out of Group A.
While TOP and MarineKing did an excellent job making sure that Leenock never really got the chance to really show off his signature muta-ling-bling tempo-based ZvT style, Leenock also shot himself in the foot with poor execution in both of his roach-baneling busts. He also got punished severely for poorly timing out his lair tech, and whether he was unlucky or just timed his builds poorly, Leenock looked downright foolish in the games that he lost.
![[image loading]](http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/3457/kokro8mkpvslosira2.jpg)
Don’t worry, I’m sure one marine on an empty ramp can prevent eight zerglings from running by.
As for MarineKing, I have never seen sloppier play from him. His decision not to wall off his base and letting Losira scout his hellion semi-all in in his second game versus Losira was perhaps the most egregious sloppy decision that he made. Indeed, MarineKing’s decisions to commit two games to using the highly risky two-proxy barracks into expansion play against two of the best zergs in the world made MarineKing look downright foolish, considering that he has proven in that past that he is fully capable of being deadly with safer strategies.
Out of all the players in Group A, TOP deserves the most praise for how much effort he put into his games. Even though he didn’t make it out of group, he showed some brilliant pre-planned strategies against Leenock. In games two and three, he showed how he tailored builds against Leenock that would help him secure an economic advantage so that he could use his spectacular macro abilities to bludgeon Leenock into submission.
TOP was also never complacent in his games against Leenock, always making sure slight advantages would grow into major advantages by multi-tasking with constant drops and harass to keep Leenock reeling. After his first series against Leenock however, TOP fell apart, getting absolutely steamrolled by Losira and MarineKing. Maybe he was still in shock in his win over Leenock (I sure was), but regardless his losses proved that he still has a lot to improve on in terms of game awareness and decision making.
![[image loading]](http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/3963/kokro8topvslosira1.jpg)
Losira’s zerglings enjoying TOP’s free un-microed hellions for dinner. TOP really doesn’t like hellion drivers apparently.
Losira seemed to have the easy road in Group A, first walking over MarineKing’s sloppy play in two games, then taking advantage of TOP’s lack of map awareness and poor tactical decision making to easily take a undefeated record in the group. He didn’t play brilliantly, but he played solidly by using the safest strategies, and he was rewarded in a group where all his opponents were taking unnecessary risks.
Group B
![[image loading]](http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/2562/kokro8incavsjuly.jpg)
InCa’s curse of not being able to wall off his natural continues from the GSL Dec. Up-Down to the King of Kong Ro8.
Is it just me, or is it sad that two of the players that have given us the worst GSLs in history have showed us the most entertaining games in the entire Ro8? It wasn’t surprising that second place in the group had to be decided between July and InCa, and in both of their bo3s versus each other they were pretty evenly matched whenever July decided to play longer macro games.
Unfortunately for InCa, July doesn’t like longer macro games.
While July’s aggression dominated InCa time and time again, with July taking advantage of InCa’s mistakes in walling off his naturals or InCa’s greediness, InCa did show us some improved play. In his worst matchup (37.50% win percentage versus zerg in Korea per TLPD), he managed to give July several headaches and looked absolutely solid in his victories. InCa only has to refine his early game play to become a real contender in the GSL, as his mid-game pressures looked very solid versus July and Rainbow.
![[image loading]](http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4326/kokro8drgvsrainbow.jpg)
If it was IdrA playing at this moment instead of DRG, I’m sure IdrA would have said something nice about how balanced terran mech is.
Speaking of Rainbow, he was clearly out of place in the tournament. He never looked very solid in any of his games, almost giving Wolf an aneurism by inexplicably going for three non-cloaked banshees after scouting mass queens in his second game versus DRG. As I predicted, he looked more comfortable agasint InCa, but InCa’s superior understanding of the matchup left Rainbow utterly defeated and eliminated.
Much like everyone expected DRG crushed his way to victory. In every single game he showed solid and smart play, whether it was abusing the immobility of Rainbow’s mech play or abusing July’s greedy fast expands. DRG was ruthless, playing styles that punished his opponents. DRG was never complacent in his group even though he had relatively easy opponents, and it’s safe to say he is on fire going into the Ro4.
Round of 4 Preview
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/117.jpg)
vs.![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/688.jpg)
Hmmm. I guess I have to say something about this match.
Seeing how dominant DRG was in his games against July, and looking at July’s terrible ZvZ record (29.41%) it is hard to see July making it past Losira. And it probably won’t happen, since Losira has been playing solidly so far and has
Nestea to practice ZvZ with on a regular basis. If there was one main overarching theme about July’s ZvZ play, it would July’s lack of understanding of the matchup. ZvZ is a matchup that is entirely dependent on understanding the metagame, and unfortunately July has consistently has shown how far behind he is in the ZvZ metagame, choosing poor builds or not recognizing good times to transition out of aggression.
His game against
YuGiOh in the GSL Dec. Up-Down is perhaps the best and most recent example of this, as July failed to take advantage of the map control that his mutas gave him and tried to attack into YuGiOh’s infestor-supported armies without any tech of his own. July was able to take out oGsLuvsic in the same day, but his victory was rather narrow as July made the mistake of allowing Luvsic’s spinecrawler to complete. I haven’t talked at all about Losira’s ZvZ because the outcome of this series depends solely on July being able to defend any aggression and keep up with Losira’s strategies. Losira has the clear advantage here, not to mention solid overall ZvZ, so it is unlikely July will make it out of the group.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/2627.jpg)
vs.![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/images/players/959.jpg)
DRG is the clear favorite going into this series. Even though MarineKing took out DRG 4-1 in the first AoL tournament, there is no denying that MarineKing is looking really mediocre at this moment. As his losses agasinst Leenock and Losira in Group A proved, MarineKing is favoring highly risky early-game aggression, and DRG undoubtedly will be preparing to shut them down just like Leenock and Losira did.
If DRG can get into the mid-game and allow his famous mutalisk control to dictate the tempo of the games, MarineKing will be hard-pressed to win. To add to MarineKing’s woes, he also has to worry about DRG’s roach-ling timings. DRG proved that his roaches were just as deadly as his mutas in his victories over MMA in the Blizzard Cup, and I’m sure DRG will bust them out a couple of times during his Bo5 series against MarineKing to keep him honest.
Face with such diverse and solid playstyles, MarineKing has two options; use unusual or highly-risky builds to catch DRG off-guard, or play the safe and smothering macro terran style. With DRG preparing for the former, MarineKing will need to secure victories with the latter, and those will be the crucial games that decide the series. MarineKing won’t be able to get all of his pressure builds to work, so he needs to guarantee victories in the games that he plays safely in order to advance to the finals.
Even if MarineKing decides to play a mech style or the macro marine-tank style, DRG still has the advantage as longer games favor his intelligent and reactive playstyle. Another factor working in DRG’s favor is that MarineKing plays a similar high-octane TvZ style that is reminiscent of MMA’s TvZ, and by now it is safe to assume that DRG is well acquainted with what he needs to do to defuse such an explosive-but-risky style.
If MarineKing continues the mediocre and risky play that he showed against Losira and Leenock, DRG will easily take the series. The outcome of this series depends on how much MarineKing prepares for his games, and it will be his to lose. Given DRG’s momentum into this series though, I think DRG will be able to avenge his loss to MarineKing in the first AoL and make it to the finals.
Image credits: GOMTV
