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A quick post on my analysis of the hurricane headed for the east coast.
The storm is massive and could become a category 4 storm for a brief period of time on Thursday (tomorrow) that much is certain. No matter which track it takes there will most likely be weather impacts in Raleigh Saturday through Sunday morning. The storm is still 4 days out and there's always a huge deal of uncertainty with exact tracks of storms like this... Clouds will start rolling in Friday early, it should not impact flights in or out of Raleigh for most people that are flying on Thursday or Monday.
Raleigh is ~100 miles inland. Even if the storm tracks on its extreme most western projected path, only shore and locations within 15-20 miles will experience the extreme effects of this storm. That's IF the storm tracks west, indications recently continue to point to it not even making a landfall in the continental US at the moment. Majority of weather outlets and meteorologists at the moment are not going to downplay this storm at all though, mainly so they cover themselves in the unlikely chance it does end up having a major impact. Looking at most recent GFS models the storm passes just to the east of the outer banks in N.C. North western portions of storms like this are almost never the most severe as tropical cyclone rotation moves in a counterclockwise direction. That means the absolute most extreme and life threatening part of these storm will (AT THIS TIME) stay well offshore to the east.
Now you can continue to listen to the doom and gloom weather guys on TV but more often than not they talk big until it's 100% going to miss.
Now we do have to keep in mind this is all before the storm has even begun taking its northern turn. As it moves north its going to lose intensity somewhat (if it does make landfall it would be as a Cat3) but still be a major storm.
I hope I didn't get too technical with this brief update but I've been tracking storms like this for a while and while there hasn't been a significant east coast event in quite a while, this is looking like it's going to be a very close brush, possibly too close for comfort...the absolute worst we will see in my opinion at this point are clouds on Friday,winds ~25 and rain for part of the day on Saturday with it moving further north Sunday. I don't know about you but that's nothing to panic about. I will continue to update this as I track the storm which I am doing pretty closely considering I am planning on being in Raleigh at this time tomorrow night through Sunday night...
 
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What is your profession. You seem all qualified and stuff.
Good to know the sat trucks should work though :D
My tvz is good now >.>
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mlg raleigh getting hit by earthquake,hurricane,tornado still wont stop the terran koreans from winning =[
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Cool cool I'll see you there ;D
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Basically I agree, I lived through like 10 hurricanes in Florida...learned that the Weather Channel likes to get REALLY excited about stuff. Most of the damaging hurricanes throughout history were so strong due to hitting the right location at the right time (see ee han timing)
Raleigh should be totally alright from this hurricane, may experience power outages, but probably not much.
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17082 Posts
I doubt Raleigh will experience power outages. I'm going to guess heavy rainfall and occasional wind gusts. Hurricane Floyd in 2000 was much more severe than Irene is right now, and all that happened in Raleigh was some flash flooding.
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This just in from weatherman rob
.. (;
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On August 25 2011 10:27 Froadac wrote:
What is your profession. You seem all qualified and stuff.
Good to know the sat trucks should work though :D
My tvz is good now >.>
I work in IT but I've always done meteorology on the side.
On August 25 2011 12:03 Empyrean wrote:
I doubt Raleigh will experience power outages. I'm going to guess heavy rainfall and occasional wind gusts. Hurricane Floyd in 2000 was much more severe than Irene is right now, and all that happened in Raleigh was some flash flooding.
I was in Charleston SC for hurricane Floyd and it was pretty big, I think it ended up hitting NC harder though.
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Korea (South)17174 Posts
Nice.
i'd trust a TL user with 5k posts over a weatherman on TV anyday too
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17082 Posts
On August 25 2011 12:06 LuckyFool wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 10:27 Froadac wrote:
What is your profession. You seem all qualified and stuff.
Good to know the sat trucks should work though :D
My tvz is good now >.> I work in IT but I've always done meteorology on the side. Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 12:03 Empyrean wrote:
I doubt Raleigh will experience power outages. I'm going to guess heavy rainfall and occasional wind gusts. Hurricane Floyd in 2000 was much more severe than Irene is right now, and all that happened in Raleigh was some flash flooding. I was in Charleston SC for hurricane Floyd and it was pretty big, I think it ended up hitting NC harder though.
It hit NC very hard, but generally in the coastal plain/outer banks. There was widespread flooding and billions of damage, just not in Raleigh.
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Hmm it looks like it's taken a slightly west shift which is actually quite bad. A landfall is looking more likely in the outer banks area, NC/VA declaring state of emergancys already as well.
I'm still leaving for Raleigh in a couple hours...Hoping it doesn't shift any more to the west or things could start getting dangrous even in Raleigh.
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On August 25 2011 14:21 Rekrul wrote:
Nice.
i'd trust a TL user with 5k posts over a weatherman on TV anyday too
I cannot tell if this is sarcasm.
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I originally was going to travel between Greenville, NC and Raleigh for MLG Sat/Sun, but there's definitely no way now. Gonna bunker up and maybe see you up in DC LF. Stay safe.
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On August 26 2011 04:07 travis wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 14:21 Rekrul wrote:
Nice.
i'd trust a TL user with 5k posts over a weatherman on TV anyday too I cannot tell if this is sarcasm.
lol
Weathermen are known to be wrong D: That's why I usually use weather.com and the weather network for live updates.
I think we can both agree that Dan is usually very snide, but there is a ounce of truth there 
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On August 26 2011 09:59 BachHo wrote:
I originally was going to travel between Greenville, NC and Raleigh for MLG Sat/Sun, but there's definitely no way now. Gonna bunker up and maybe see you up in DC LF. Stay safe.
Consider driving on Sunday, it should be pretty nice weather and the storm will be moved through. Only tomorrow is going to be pretty bad in the Raleigh area and by pretty bad it's gonna be mainly rain with some decent winds here and there throughout the day.
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On August 26 2011 04:07 travis wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 14:21 Rekrul wrote:
Nice.
i'd trust a TL user with 5k posts over a weatherman on TV anyday too I cannot tell if this is sarcasm.
You're due for a calibration.
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D: BarCraft NYC and Boston canceled. I place the blame for it solely on you, LuckyFool.
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United States10328 Posts
On August 25 2011 16:56 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 12:06 LuckyFool wrote:On August 25 2011 10:27 Froadac wrote:
What is your profession. You seem all qualified and stuff.
Good to know the sat trucks should work though :D
My tvz is good now >.> I work in IT but I've always done meteorology on the side. On August 25 2011 12:03 Empyrean wrote:
I doubt Raleigh will experience power outages. I'm going to guess heavy rainfall and occasional wind gusts. Hurricane Floyd in 2000 was much more severe than Irene is right now, and all that happened in Raleigh was some flash flooding. I was in Charleston SC for hurricane Floyd and it was pretty big, I think it ended up hitting NC harder though. It hit NC very hard, but generally in the coastal plain/outer banks. There was widespread flooding and billions of damage, just not in Raleigh.
The one that actually hit the Raleigh/Durham area hard was Fran (wasn't that category 4-5?), in like 1995 or 1994... we haven't gotten much other than heavy rain and lots of wind otherwise. I guess power outages are possible if trees fall on the power lines, but since MLG is being held in the city (I think?), there shouldn't really be huge? problems on site. [Streaming might be another story, but probably should be ok too?]
(of course I can say all this lightly because I'm on the other side of the planet right now lol)
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EPT
