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Hi TL,
I'd like not to rehash the whole thread about the Yeonpyeong shelling incident, or post any documentaries about North Korea. Here, I'd like to discuss Korean Reunification because "something" may be around the corner. Whether this is peace talks, war, or reunification efforts - people are talking now and I think that some serious diplomatic changes will be made in the near future.
I personally think that the government in North Korea is so absurd and oppressive (excuse the commu-dictator cliche) that North Koreans with power have no reason, and North Koreans with reason have no power. I know there are high ranking officials in their government that are capable of critical thinking beyond the worship of the Great Leader, but can they do anything? Even with the limited power they have (remember dictatorship), if they tried to exercise reason, logic, and dissent they would be immediately taken care of by colleagues or the Great Leader himself.
I don't mean to put no blame on the South, for they have their own set of diplomatic failures towards the North. However, it's quite obvious that the aggressive, nuclear-equipped(maybe?) neighbors to the North are the real crazies here.
PS
I'm currently writing a paper about the subject, and I started writing well before the shelling incident.
 
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I seriously doubt "something" is around the corner. The border has been super-militarized and one of the tensest places in the world for like 50+ years now. North Korea cannot be reasoned with and has no desire for any kind of unification. They are dirt poor yet talk like they have actual power and influence... they are really just a pain in everyone's ass - the western world is worried they will go psycho and China is pissed about them always acting out. What makes you think they are about to start peace talks after recently torpedoing a SK ship and shelling their territory?
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*shrug* if two super-power carve up a country that was occupied by an imperial power (Japan) the result is bound to be fucked up.
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From an outside view it seems like North Korea is NOT a balanced country with terrible economy and infrastructure, but a powerful military. It seems like South Korea is just hypermodern and developed as well as Japan/USA etc.
I'm not sure how well it would fit.
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The North vs South thing isn't isolated to the two Koreas. Everyone in the world knows that North Korea is completely crazy and absurd. However, it exists as it is largely because China is using it as a buffer against the US and the rest of the world. You can think of it as a remnant of the Cold War.
Further, should war break out again, it would put the economy in that area at serious risk. Considering how important China is, as well as South Korea and Japan, to the world economy, it'd be like shooting yourself in the foot after falling out of a building (considering the current state of the world economy).
North Korea isn't terribly important here. Everyone knows that if the North decides to go to war, they would get steamrolled instantly. The issue is that they would likely take South Korea with them, and possibly a chunk of Japan as well. The North has nothing to lose, everyone else in the region does. China will never allow the North to attack, and truth be told, China is the major player in this whole conflict, not North Korea. They're like an absurd comedy sideshow.
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The big obstacle is: Kim Jong il.
I don't think his son Un going to be so well received if il happens to kick the bucket within the next few years. Before Sung died, il had been around for a decade or more. I think there's going to be a real power struggle if il dies before Un is firmly set to be the new ruler. But I'm not privy to a lot of NK politics, but it seems pretty plausible to me. I'm just waiting to see what happens once Jong Il dies; I bet the shit's going to hit the fan within a year of that guy's death. (I'm not talking about war, but just death to NK by implosion).
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I think NK's just gonna slowly bleed to death unless they let someone in, try to take SK or try some threat bullshit. Their people are starving to death. Eventually they'll be fighting with skeletons. I have a sinking feeling that they may try to go out with a bang, at which point they'll get massacred by everyone else. Hopefully they don't take anyone else with them. There's really no unification until one of these things happen.
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On December 06 2010 09:53 calgar wrote:
I seriously doubt "something" is around the corner. The border has been super-militarized and one of the tensest places in the world for like 50+ years now. North Korea cannot be reasoned with and has no desire for any kind of unification. They are dirt poor yet talk like they have actual power and influence... they are really just a pain in everyone's ass - the western world is worried they will go psycho and China is pissed about them always acting out. What makes you think they are about to start peace talks after recently torpedoing a SK ship and shelling their territory?
The most recent incidents this year have been a little different from those in the 60s. I think after Kim Jong-Il dies something will have to happen. Did you read what I meant by something? Diplomatic talks? You bet your ass they will happen soon.
North Korea wants reunification under their own rule, badly. There could be a German-style reunification, and I'm not sure how much say the DPRK would have in any sort of agreement.
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On December 06 2010 10:00 PH wrote:However, it exists as it is largely because China is using it as a buffer against the US and the rest of the world. You can think of it as a remnant of the Cold War.
Further, should war break out again, it would put the economy in that area at serious risk. Considering how important China is, as well as South Korea and Japan, to the world economy, it'd be like shooting yourself in the foot after falling out of a building (considering the current state of the world economy).
North Korea isn't terribly important here. Everyone knows that if the North decides to go to war, they would get steamrolled instantly. The issue is that they would likely take South Korea with them, and possibly a chunk of Japan as well. The North has nothing to lose, everyone else in the region does. China will never allow the North to attack, and truth be told, China is the major player in this whole conflict, not North Korea. They're like an absurd comedy sideshow.
Wikileaks cables indicate that the so-called buffer is less important to Chinese politicians than it was some 40 years ago. I'm not suggesting that war would be good, so I'm not sure what you mean to say by talking about the world economy.
You're really just spouting anti-war sentiments, anything about reunification?
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On December 06 2010 09:53 Romantic wrote:
*shrug* if two super-power carve up a country that was occupied by an imperial power (Japan) the result is bound to be fucked up.
it's happening all around the world :/ except it really only takes 1 superpower to carve up any small state
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On December 06 2010 10:16 Shigy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 09:53 calgar wrote:
I seriously doubt "something" is around the corner. The border has been super-militarized and one of the tensest places in the world for like 50+ years now. North Korea cannot be reasoned with and has no desire for any kind of unification. They are dirt poor yet talk like they have actual power and influence... they are really just a pain in everyone's ass - the western world is worried they will go psycho and China is pissed about them always acting out. What makes you think they are about to start peace talks after recently torpedoing a SK ship and shelling their territory? The most recent incidents this year have been a little different from those in the 60s. I think after Kim Jong-Il dies something will have to happen. Did you read what I meant by something? Diplomatic talks? You bet your ass they will happen soon. North Korea wants reunification under their own rule, badly. There could be a German-style reunification, and I'm not sure how much say the DPRK would have in any sort of agreement. How are these violent attacks any different from earlier ones? Seems like the same old blame game 'wasn't us', 'you have no proof', 'give in to our demands or we'll flip out and nuke the world'.
The economic disparity is a huge barrier to any thoughts of reconciliation. Meaning any comparison to a german reunification is completely moot because the cases are totally different. You say things are about to happen soon but everything I read says its a long way off if at all. Reuters says "There are no signs that North and South Korea are anywhere near close to reconciliation" and "By some estimates it would cost more than $1 trillion to absorb the North. That could wreak havoc on South Korea's economy... Opinion polls, however, show more than 60 percent of South Koreans want unification, but they would prefer it happen later rather than sooner because of the cost." Later as in, "yeah I like the idea but I'm not going to be the one that pays for it".
Everyone is always trying to get NK to talk and there have been talks on and off for ages. What exactly has been accomplished towards the goal of reunification? Sure hes's old and not very healthy but he could very well chug on for another 10+ years.
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I think you're overstating my "something". I wasn't very specific by what that meant, but I don't think that reunification is around the corner either. I do however believe that, if nothing else, the DPRK will be having formal talks. Maybe a 6-party summit, or maybe just China, maybe the US - I don't know.
These attacks were different because of the timing and use of sophisticated weapons like subs and artillery as opposed to smaller arms in skirmishes along the DMZ and other things like that. The are not denying the Yeonpyeong shelling and you have to ask why now? They say that they're retaliating to military exercises near their maritime borders, but those exercises have been happening regularly for years. The power transfer to Kim Jong-Un is a popular theory as motives behind the attacks. Why would they be preparing to transfer power? Maybe because the Dear Leader is about to eat it?
I don't see reunification in the near future either. I just want to know what people think about the long term, or if they have any short-term theories/ideas.
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First of all, I will assume that in case Korean War reignites, SK will win. We all know in modern warfare, having a lot of fanatic soldiers fighting for you does not win you the war. The SK and US air force can destroy NK's supplyline in less than 24 hours and NK will be screwed.
The problem with SK is not only to bear with the cost of the war itself, but post-war issues. Imagine a medium-sized country with a well-educated population with high standard of living suddenly have to take in the population of a nation of comparable size. The socioeconomic consequences are unimaginable. I read it somewhere that it may cost SK 50 trillion dollars over 50 years to incorporate NK's population.
So yea, it's a lose-lose situation for SK. In fact, I am *pretty* sure SK does not actually want to unite. It's just not worth it. NK's leaders don't have to unite either, because that would mean they would lose their power.
The ones who can actually receive benefits from a united Korea is probably the citizens of NK.
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On December 06 2010 12:03 Sufficiency wrote:
First of all, I will assume that in case Korean War reignites, SK will win. We all know in modern warfare, having a lot of fanatic soldiers fighting for you does not win you the war. The SK and US air force can destroy NK's supplyline in less than 24 hours and NK will be screwed.
The problem with SK is not only to bear with the cost of the war itself, but post-war issues. Imagine a medium-sized country with a well-educated population with high standard of living suddenly have to take in the population of a nation of comparable size. The socioeconomic consequences are unimaginable. I read it somewhere that it may cost SK 50 trillion dollars over 50 years to incorporate NK's population.
So yea, it's a lose-lose situation for SK. In fact, I am *pretty* sure SK does not actually want to unite. It's just not worth it. NK's leaders don't have to unite either, because that would mean they would lose their power.
The ones who can actually receive benefits from a united Korea is probably the citizens of NK.
I agree that a second Korean War would not leave the North victorious, but this is not Starcraft (lol). It's not like destroy supply-line ---> gg. A lot of people would die in South Korea too. The economic consequences to the South are also a good point against reunification, but if the South was able to develop to where it is today in 50 years, why not again?
I don't mean to oversimplify the costs vs. benefits of incorporating North Korea, but don't you think the population and land of the North could be a valuable asset to Korea in the long term?
Did I mention the fact that many South Koreans support reunification on the basis of shared history, culture, and blood? A chunk of South Korean GDP may be a small price to pay to restore the peninsula and bring peace back and eliminate the tension and animosity that all Koreans (especially North) have lived with for so many years.
I talked to a Korean classmate about this just yesterday, and he was a smart and articulate (despite his limited English) guy. I really enjoyed his passion on the subject and he appreciated that I'd read up on the subject (having been writing this paper). He told me that there are a lot of South Koreans that oppose reunification because of the cost, but also made the case that I outlined above based on humanitarian issues and long term benefits.
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South Koreans support reunification on the basis of shared history, culture, and blood. On the same basis, North Koreans support reunification.
However, nowadays, even with 'reunification' in mind, the two nations are going at it against each other.
Now back to the title... key obstacles to reunification?
1. Government. If two countries are unified, both sides will not be happy. Why? The government would be run differently. Two countries will have to adapt to the other's government in order for this to work out. However, given their temper issues as well as current events, this is not going to happen easily (or not going to happen at all).
2. Cultures. Holy fuck these two countries are lightyears apart.
Lets take this from both country's Arcades (If you think I'm making a stupid discussion off video games, go ahead and call me on that. Chances are, many people will easily grasp the differences between two countries).
Typical South Koren arcade: http://www.wingrex.wo.to/jgclite.htm
Typical North Korean arcade: http://www.ukresistance.co.uk/2008/09/inside-north-korean-arcade.html
'WAIT YOU CAN SOLVE THESE PROBLEM AFTER REUNIFICATION DUMBASS'
I'm only stating out few things that will worry either one or both countries from reunification. These should be carefully looked over and solved before reunification; else the economy will be fucked and the citizens won't be happy.
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On December 08 2010 12:33 kaisen wrote:I highly recommend people watch this video. This professor knows his stuffs and tells why korean unification isn't going to happen any time soon. http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
Thanks for posting this, I heard about the book. I have watched numerous documentaries and I've seen the propaganda and education system.
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In short, most of koreans who have visited north korea do not want reunification at the moment because the state of north korea is 50-60 years behind south korea in economically. But at the same time, they feel guilty about it.
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I really think the first step is the reunification of mainland China and Taiwan, have some type of political reform in China first, THEN there will be hope for the reunification of Korea.
Let's face it, SK alone cannot handle all the refugees from NK; however, a democratic China may be able to. At least they manage to go from a situation like NK into the world second largest economy in just 30 years. That know-how is of utmost importance in reforming the smaller communist state (in a peaceful way).
However, I also do not know when Taiwan and mainland will reunify; but it certainly seems earlier and easier to do.
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On December 08 2010 12:33 kaisen wrote:I highly recommend people watch this video. This professor knows his stuffs and tells why korean unification isn't going to happen any time soon. http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
VERY good link!
Needs more attention!
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http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/27/2010122701106.html
More on reunification efforts escalating. Although I don't really know if this means anything.
I do think that in January when Hu Jintao visits the US, that this story will develop and we'll get a better idea of what is to come with the Koreas. Peaceful reunification? hahaaaaa that would be something eh.
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Well, if Koreans want a reunification, they will have to take it with their own hands. China and USA will not risk a war and this status quot will go on unless opportunities present themselves.
I think the succession of North Korean leaders is a very good opportunity.
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On December 08 2010 12:33 kaisen wrote:I highly recommend people watch this video. This professor knows his stuffs and tells why korean unification isn't going to happen any time soon. http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
Thanks, that was really eye-opening. I know I used to think that just realizing how much better off the rest of the world is would undermine any authoritarian regime. Apparently that's not how things work in many situations.
edit: On the economic side, I'm not sure reunification needs to be as costly as it was for Germany. For Germany there was a very real issue of now or never. No European power really wanted to see a unified Germany, which would immediately become the number one power in the region. But they could not really openly oppose it either at that moment as it was universally seen as a victory of freedom and self-determination over tyranny.
If the North Korean regime collapsed for any reason there would be no such rush. Unification could happen immediately, in 10 years or 20 years. If anything, unification would improve China's strategic position because it would take away the reason for keeping US troops in Korea. There would be no urgency to "seize the moment" and North Korea could exist as a separate country with heavy economic assistance from the South until living standards were close enough to justify full unification.
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No countries really want to see the two Koreas unite: China, Japan, Russia, heck even USA I think. Everybody would prefer to have two Koreas separate, just North Korea to calm down and stop acting crazy. In that sense, I think everybody had enough of Kim jong Il, even China.
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On December 27 2010 23:51 don_kyuhote wrote:
No countries really want to see the two Koreas unite: China, Japan, Russia, heck even USA I think. Everybody would prefer to have two Koreas separate, just North Korea to calm down and stop acting crazy. In that sense, I think everybody had enough of Kim jong Il, even China.
I don't know about China/Russia (although I don't think Russia is very relevant on the world stage anymore, however hard they try). But I do know that US, especially now, is a huge trading partner with SK and common sense leads me to believe that the US would benefit from a stronger South Korea due to economic and political reasons.
We, just like the rest of the western world don't really like dictators and communism. North Korea does very little to contribute to the well-being of the human race (woah, deep bro) because their government disallows freedom to produce, learn, work efficiently, etc.
But you're right, maybe we just need NK to cool off and start being a good neighbor. Unfortunately, I don't see this possible because of the stubborn regime. So in turn, the only way for NK to be a reasonable state for the Kim dynasty to end. When that happens... I think reunification is one of the few outcomes to the collapse of NK government.
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Korea (South)1897 Posts
From a south Korean perspective, life is so competitive and difficult, there is no time to think about reunification; as long as they don't shell us, the status quo is fine.
While many overseas Koreans have time to wonder why there is no real progress towards reunification and be critical of the status quo, but don't ever question, reunification for what end?
Personally, I do feel the same way as randomKo_Orean, and I do feel that there would be a long term economic and political benefit (with stability and greater market); the transition period or what will even push there to be reunification is a complete mystery.
I did watch the video of that professor Myers, his view really isn't that helpful towards reunification and while he has some fantastic points that give a lot of clarity to the current regime; its a bit lacking in insight.
I mean to say this in that his audience is westerners; so its not hard to impress them with some new facts or some cultural insights that create some 'ah ha' moments, but for me, as a Korean, I know there are a lot more different levels to it; like when 50% of people defects back to North Korea from the Chinese boarder, its not that going back is so great, but if you are constantly in fear of being captured and sent back by force and you're basically being taken advantage of sexually or via forced labour by Chinese Koreans or the underworld and you weren't from a privileged background in the first place, going back to North Korea would be a better alternative in that case.
Also in terms of being more anti Japanese, well I think his experience is very limited, especially if he was living most of his time in Busan. 100% we are not as anti-Japanese as we were before, I grew up thinking that the Japanese should all be killed on sight, while we may be some distaste and we definately don't trust Japanese, the majority of the population don't think we should shoot them on site, but at one point, the majority of the population felt that strongly about it, and I'm talking up to the 1988 Olympics. But as our own international pride increased, so did our chip on our shoulder and feeling of injustice and hurt pride also diminish.
But yes, the youth nowadays, may still have some minor distrust, but they don't have the outright hatred that those in their 35+ grew up with.
Another thing is that Koreans understand our community via our blood, now, no matter what new terminology the Japanese brought in, I can agree that via the exposure of the Japanese we did use their methodology to express ourselves with, how could we not, most middle class and educated Koreans never thought we would be free from colonial rule by 1945, but, what makes Koreans Korean including the ones in the North is this idea of our blood ties and our level of homogeneity, which may have been expressed through the forms we learned from the Japanese, but this has always been true, it is this kind of thinking which many academics fall into of not realizing that any society, with the exposure we had to such new foreign ways, would of course use those influences in how we express ourselves, but just because we expressed it using the methods we learned from the japanese, didn't mean that we still weren't expressing what was in our hearts and minds as Koreans.
It's just like to say that Park Jung Hee, because he was Japanese educated, did things in a Japanese way, and of course, he used Japanese forms and was influenced by it, but the actual content of his expression was Korean (not to pass judgement good or bad).
You know, there was a provisional gov't during the occupation, my family was part of it; there was a movement for independence from the Korean Christians and so on, and so there is another part of this entire story and situation which does not get any focus and is simply ignored, but not all south Koreans are hyper mad competitive brand conscious (not to say the majority aren't) and not all north Koreans will be brain washed still and there are a group of Korean people who were not influenced by the Japanese occupation as they were still fighting or in exile and came back to settle in South Korea hoping one day for reunification. And I think, as I am starting to ramble here, it is something out of our hands, but something inevitable as well, as we know we are Korean. Not south, not north, not overseas, but simply by blood Korean. I think that is why both Seoul and Pyongyang are both so geographically vulnerable, we as a people never expected this division to go out for so long...
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
Here's the reason reunification is nigh impossible... think about this hypothetical idea:
Lets's say thatt omorrow, the entire North Korean head government submits to South Korea, handing over complete control. South Korea has the right to restructure, integrate, and basically run North Korea however it wants. North Korea has a huge, uneducated labor force that's starving due to generations of mismanagement. Its physical infrastructure is in disarray, and it lacks the capital to quickly industrialize. But that's the lesser problem.
The real problem is running the country. Who do you put as mayors, governors, and prefects in the various cities? Your options are basically: use someone from the area, or use someone from a different country (probably south korea). If you bring in foreigners or south koreans, they don't know the locals and bringing in foreign governors rarely works well, even when there's cultural similarities.
Using locals, though, could also be out of the question. For the past several generations, any person in North Korea with any sort of leadership talent-- basically, any go-getters or intelligent people-- have joined the Communist Party, since it's the only way for a young person with talent to get anything close to success in that country. The number of talented leaders who aren't communists in North Korea is frighteningly small.
So the question is: import foreign leadership, excuse low-ranking communists, or try to find North Korean non-party member leadership quality individuals? After half a century of brutal oppression, it will be a hard country to run.
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Most of South Koreans who've been to North Korea and saw the economic situation of North Korea, they do not want unification with North, but they feel guilty about it.
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EPT
