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Hi TL,
I'd like not to rehash the whole thread about the Yeonpyeong shelling incident, or post any documentaries about North Korea. Here, I'd like to discuss Korean Reunification because "something" may be around the corner. Whether this is peace talks, war, or reunification efforts - people are talking now and I think that some serious diplomatic changes will be made in the near future.
I personally think that the government in North Korea is so absurd and oppressive (excuse the commu-dictator cliche) that North Koreans with power have no reason, and North Koreans with reason have no power. I know there are high ranking officials in their government that are capable of critical thinking beyond the worship of the Great Leader, but can they do anything? Even with the limited power they have (remember dictatorship), if they tried to exercise reason, logic, and dissent they would be immediately taken care of by colleagues or the Great Leader himself.
I don't mean to put no blame on the South, for they have their own set of diplomatic failures towards the North. However, it's quite obvious that the aggressive, nuclear-equipped(maybe?) neighbors to the North are the real crazies here.
PS
I'm currently writing a paper about the subject, and I started writing well before the shelling incident.
 
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I seriously doubt "something" is around the corner. The border has been super-militarized and one of the tensest places in the world for like 50+ years now. North Korea cannot be reasoned with and has no desire for any kind of unification. They are dirt poor yet talk like they have actual power and influence... they are really just a pain in everyone's ass - the western world is worried they will go psycho and China is pissed about them always acting out. What makes you think they are about to start peace talks after recently torpedoing a SK ship and shelling their territory?
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*shrug* if two super-power carve up a country that was occupied by an imperial power (Japan) the result is bound to be fucked up.
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From an outside view it seems like North Korea is NOT a balanced country with terrible economy and infrastructure, but a powerful military. It seems like South Korea is just hypermodern and developed as well as Japan/USA etc.
I'm not sure how well it would fit.
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The North vs South thing isn't isolated to the two Koreas. Everyone in the world knows that North Korea is completely crazy and absurd. However, it exists as it is largely because China is using it as a buffer against the US and the rest of the world. You can think of it as a remnant of the Cold War.
Further, should war break out again, it would put the economy in that area at serious risk. Considering how important China is, as well as South Korea and Japan, to the world economy, it'd be like shooting yourself in the foot after falling out of a building (considering the current state of the world economy).
North Korea isn't terribly important here. Everyone knows that if the North decides to go to war, they would get steamrolled instantly. The issue is that they would likely take South Korea with them, and possibly a chunk of Japan as well. The North has nothing to lose, everyone else in the region does. China will never allow the North to attack, and truth be told, China is the major player in this whole conflict, not North Korea. They're like an absurd comedy sideshow.
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The big obstacle is: Kim Jong il.
I don't think his son Un going to be so well received if il happens to kick the bucket within the next few years. Before Sung died, il had been around for a decade or more. I think there's going to be a real power struggle if il dies before Un is firmly set to be the new ruler. But I'm not privy to a lot of NK politics, but it seems pretty plausible to me. I'm just waiting to see what happens once Jong Il dies; I bet the shit's going to hit the fan within a year of that guy's death. (I'm not talking about war, but just death to NK by implosion).
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I think NK's just gonna slowly bleed to death unless they let someone in, try to take SK or try some threat bullshit. Their people are starving to death. Eventually they'll be fighting with skeletons. I have a sinking feeling that they may try to go out with a bang, at which point they'll get massacred by everyone else. Hopefully they don't take anyone else with them. There's really no unification until one of these things happen.
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On December 06 2010 09:53 calgar wrote:
I seriously doubt "something" is around the corner. The border has been super-militarized and one of the tensest places in the world for like 50+ years now. North Korea cannot be reasoned with and has no desire for any kind of unification. They are dirt poor yet talk like they have actual power and influence... they are really just a pain in everyone's ass - the western world is worried they will go psycho and China is pissed about them always acting out. What makes you think they are about to start peace talks after recently torpedoing a SK ship and shelling their territory?
The most recent incidents this year have been a little different from those in the 60s. I think after Kim Jong-Il dies something will have to happen. Did you read what I meant by something? Diplomatic talks? You bet your ass they will happen soon.
North Korea wants reunification under their own rule, badly. There could be a German-style reunification, and I'm not sure how much say the DPRK would have in any sort of agreement.
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On December 06 2010 10:00 PH wrote:However, it exists as it is largely because China is using it as a buffer against the US and the rest of the world. You can think of it as a remnant of the Cold War.
Further, should war break out again, it would put the economy in that area at serious risk. Considering how important China is, as well as South Korea and Japan, to the world economy, it'd be like shooting yourself in the foot after falling out of a building (considering the current state of the world economy).
North Korea isn't terribly important here. Everyone knows that if the North decides to go to war, they would get steamrolled instantly. The issue is that they would likely take South Korea with them, and possibly a chunk of Japan as well. The North has nothing to lose, everyone else in the region does. China will never allow the North to attack, and truth be told, China is the major player in this whole conflict, not North Korea. They're like an absurd comedy sideshow.
Wikileaks cables indicate that the so-called buffer is less important to Chinese politicians than it was some 40 years ago. I'm not suggesting that war would be good, so I'm not sure what you mean to say by talking about the world economy.
You're really just spouting anti-war sentiments, anything about reunification?
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On December 06 2010 09:53 Romantic wrote:
*shrug* if two super-power carve up a country that was occupied by an imperial power (Japan) the result is bound to be fucked up.
it's happening all around the world :/ except it really only takes 1 superpower to carve up any small state
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On December 06 2010 10:16 Shigy wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 09:53 calgar wrote:
I seriously doubt "something" is around the corner. The border has been super-militarized and one of the tensest places in the world for like 50+ years now. North Korea cannot be reasoned with and has no desire for any kind of unification. They are dirt poor yet talk like they have actual power and influence... they are really just a pain in everyone's ass - the western world is worried they will go psycho and China is pissed about them always acting out. What makes you think they are about to start peace talks after recently torpedoing a SK ship and shelling their territory? The most recent incidents this year have been a little different from those in the 60s. I think after Kim Jong-Il dies something will have to happen. Did you read what I meant by something? Diplomatic talks? You bet your ass they will happen soon. North Korea wants reunification under their own rule, badly. There could be a German-style reunification, and I'm not sure how much say the DPRK would have in any sort of agreement. How are these violent attacks any different from earlier ones? Seems like the same old blame game 'wasn't us', 'you have no proof', 'give in to our demands or we'll flip out and nuke the world'.
The economic disparity is a huge barrier to any thoughts of reconciliation. Meaning any comparison to a german reunification is completely moot because the cases are totally different. You say things are about to happen soon but everything I read says its a long way off if at all. Reuters says "There are no signs that North and South Korea are anywhere near close to reconciliation" and "By some estimates it would cost more than $1 trillion to absorb the North. That could wreak havoc on South Korea's economy... Opinion polls, however, show more than 60 percent of South Koreans want unification, but they would prefer it happen later rather than sooner because of the cost." Later as in, "yeah I like the idea but I'm not going to be the one that pays for it".
Everyone is always trying to get NK to talk and there have been talks on and off for ages. What exactly has been accomplished towards the goal of reunification? Sure hes's old and not very healthy but he could very well chug on for another 10+ years.
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I think you're overstating my "something". I wasn't very specific by what that meant, but I don't think that reunification is around the corner either. I do however believe that, if nothing else, the DPRK will be having formal talks. Maybe a 6-party summit, or maybe just China, maybe the US - I don't know.
These attacks were different because of the timing and use of sophisticated weapons like subs and artillery as opposed to smaller arms in skirmishes along the DMZ and other things like that. The are not denying the Yeonpyeong shelling and you have to ask why now? They say that they're retaliating to military exercises near their maritime borders, but those exercises have been happening regularly for years. The power transfer to Kim Jong-Un is a popular theory as motives behind the attacks. Why would they be preparing to transfer power? Maybe because the Dear Leader is about to eat it?
I don't see reunification in the near future either. I just want to know what people think about the long term, or if they have any short-term theories/ideas.
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First of all, I will assume that in case Korean War reignites, SK will win. We all know in modern warfare, having a lot of fanatic soldiers fighting for you does not win you the war. The SK and US air force can destroy NK's supplyline in less than 24 hours and NK will be screwed.
The problem with SK is not only to bear with the cost of the war itself, but post-war issues. Imagine a medium-sized country with a well-educated population with high standard of living suddenly have to take in the population of a nation of comparable size. The socioeconomic consequences are unimaginable. I read it somewhere that it may cost SK 50 trillion dollars over 50 years to incorporate NK's population.
So yea, it's a lose-lose situation for SK. In fact, I am *pretty* sure SK does not actually want to unite. It's just not worth it. NK's leaders don't have to unite either, because that would mean they would lose their power.
The ones who can actually receive benefits from a united Korea is probably the citizens of NK.
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On December 06 2010 12:03 Sufficiency wrote:
First of all, I will assume that in case Korean War reignites, SK will win. We all know in modern warfare, having a lot of fanatic soldiers fighting for you does not win you the war. The SK and US air force can destroy NK's supplyline in less than 24 hours and NK will be screwed.
The problem with SK is not only to bear with the cost of the war itself, but post-war issues. Imagine a medium-sized country with a well-educated population with high standard of living suddenly have to take in the population of a nation of comparable size. The socioeconomic consequences are unimaginable. I read it somewhere that it may cost SK 50 trillion dollars over 50 years to incorporate NK's population.
So yea, it's a lose-lose situation for SK. In fact, I am *pretty* sure SK does not actually want to unite. It's just not worth it. NK's leaders don't have to unite either, because that would mean they would lose their power.
The ones who can actually receive benefits from a united Korea is probably the citizens of NK.
I agree that a second Korean War would not leave the North victorious, but this is not Starcraft (lol). It's not like destroy supply-line ---> gg. A lot of people would die in South Korea too. The economic consequences to the South are also a good point against reunification, but if the South was able to develop to where it is today in 50 years, why not again?
I don't mean to oversimplify the costs vs. benefits of incorporating North Korea, but don't you think the population and land of the North could be a valuable asset to Korea in the long term?
Did I mention the fact that many South Koreans support reunification on the basis of shared history, culture, and blood? A chunk of South Korean GDP may be a small price to pay to restore the peninsula and bring peace back and eliminate the tension and animosity that all Koreans (especially North) have lived with for so many years.
I talked to a Korean classmate about this just yesterday, and he was a smart and articulate (despite his limited English) guy. I really enjoyed his passion on the subject and he appreciated that I'd read up on the subject (having been writing this paper). He told me that there are a lot of South Koreans that oppose reunification because of the cost, but also made the case that I outlined above based on humanitarian issues and long term benefits.
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South Koreans support reunification on the basis of shared history, culture, and blood. On the same basis, North Koreans support reunification.
However, nowadays, even with 'reunification' in mind, the two nations are going at it against each other.
Now back to the title... key obstacles to reunification?
1. Government. If two countries are unified, both sides will not be happy. Why? The government would be run differently. Two countries will have to adapt to the other's government in order for this to work out. However, given their temper issues as well as current events, this is not going to happen easily (or not going to happen at all).
2. Cultures. Holy fuck these two countries are lightyears apart.
Lets take this from both country's Arcades (If you think I'm making a stupid discussion off video games, go ahead and call me on that. Chances are, many people will easily grasp the differences between two countries).
Typical South Koren arcade: http://www.wingrex.wo.to/jgclite.htm
Typical North Korean arcade: http://www.ukresistance.co.uk/2008/09/inside-north-korean-arcade.html
'WAIT YOU CAN SOLVE THESE PROBLEM AFTER REUNIFICATION DUMBASS'
I'm only stating out few things that will worry either one or both countries from reunification. These should be carefully looked over and solved before reunification; else the economy will be fucked and the citizens won't be happy.
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On December 08 2010 12:33 kaisen wrote:I highly recommend people watch this video. This professor knows his stuffs and tells why korean unification isn't going to happen any time soon. http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
Thanks for posting this, I heard about the book. I have watched numerous documentaries and I've seen the propaganda and education system.
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In short, most of koreans who have visited north korea do not want reunification at the moment because the state of north korea is 50-60 years behind south korea in economically. But at the same time, they feel guilty about it.
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I really think the first step is the reunification of mainland China and Taiwan, have some type of political reform in China first, THEN there will be hope for the reunification of Korea.
Let's face it, SK alone cannot handle all the refugees from NK; however, a democratic China may be able to. At least they manage to go from a situation like NK into the world second largest economy in just 30 years. That know-how is of utmost importance in reforming the smaller communist state (in a peaceful way).
However, I also do not know when Taiwan and mainland will reunify; but it certainly seems earlier and easier to do.
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On December 08 2010 12:33 kaisen wrote:I highly recommend people watch this video. This professor knows his stuffs and tells why korean unification isn't going to happen any time soon. http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
VERY good link!
Needs more attention!
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EPT
