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Saving this in my blog for my own reference and also to draw attention a bit more to the numbers within. This is referencing the GSL RO64 game that GuineaPig scouted a hatch first build and decided to not make units until he had to (he chose to go air) I got interested and saw how this lined up with a zerg and noticed some interesting interactions between the races with these builds.
I just tested some stuff out vs comps. and here is a little Description of ZvP 14 hatch vs Guineas build:
Protoss:
Minute-------Probe Count------Able to make units without hurting econ?
1.......................9.......................................no
2......................13......................................no
3......................18......................................no
4......................22......................................no
5......................27......................................yes(600mins per minute)
6......................34......................................yes(1000 mins per minute)
7......................42......................................yes(1400 mins per minute)
8......................50......................................yes
9......................57......................................yes
10....................65......................................yes
Zerg:
Minute-------Drone Count------Able to make units without hurting econ?
1......................10.....................................no
2......................14.....................................no
3......................16.....................................no*
4......................22.....................................no*
5......................31.....................................no**
6......................41.....................................no**
7......................52.....................................yes(1400 mins per minute)
8......................66.....................................yes
9......................79.....................................yes
10....................98.....................................yes
* May spend 1 drone on a spine crawler for each asterisk every minute without hurting econ substantially.
So what this shows us is that playing like guinea nets protoss superiority up until the 7th minute, when both bases are saturated and zerg can put full force into producing units.
Now while this is an unrealistic ideal setting (zerg making no units but 2 queens) it tells you something about the matchup. Zerg cannot make units before 7th minute without sacrificing income. now this does not mean zerg should NOT make units until 7:01. but what it does mean is that Zerg must be concious that every unit made before 7 minutes harms the rate at which you hit maximum 2 base income. and the earlier the unit the worse it becomes. It also shows us that you may make 6 spine crawlers over four minutes without hurting your income substantially
Math based personal opinion: But pretty much it proves that protoss gains an advantage over zerg if played well, because three minutes go by protoss can produce that doesn't harm them that harms zerg, forcing zerg to make units, harming their economy. And that at Exactly the time protoss can produce and zerg must to defend (hurting their economy) protoss and zerg are even. thus zerg is much less likely to outpace protoss' income throughout the next three minutes, and as such protoss gains a big advantage.
As a side note this also shows that if zerg takes a third, then Protoss is more than capable of doing the same all while producing units/cannons
Just some math from someone who stayedup all night and decided to test this because he was bored.
  
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Damn just when I thought this was a nice, cool informative post I start reading really stupid comments.
On November 25 2010 05:59 PrinceXizor wrote:
But pretty much it proves that protoss gains an advantage over zerg if played well
lol..
You do realise that if, lets say, from minute 4-5 if Zerg builds 8 lings, therefore is below the maximum potential only having 27 drones instead of 31.. he's still not behind a protoss who builds 2 zealots without comprimising his max potential by having.. 27 probes?
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On November 25 2010 06:13 7mk wrote:Damn just when I thought this was a nice, cool informative post I start reading really stupid comments. Show nested quote +On November 25 2010 05:59 PrinceXizor wrote:
But pretty much it proves that protoss gains an advantage over zerg if played well
lol.. You do realise that if, lets say, from minute 4-5 if Zerg builds 8 lings, therefore is below the maximum potential only having 27 drones instead of 31.. he's still not behind a protoss who builds 2 zealots without comprimising his max potential by having.. 27 probes?
Thats why the IF PLAYED WELL part exists. protoss has plenty of minerals towards zealots/gates/cannons while every single ling hurts zergs potential and if protoss doesn't lose units then they work like a snowball effect to overwhelm.
Please know i'm not saying that protoss is imbalanced. All i'm saying is that the build that guinea used (in regards to econ management) gives protoss an advantage. and that it's a viable response to a 14 hatch. the size of the advantage depends entirely on the protoss' ability to force more non drones out of the zerg. no extra lings makes the advantage only slight though. It's really up to the protoss to decide their advantage.
Really what i was saying is the equivilent of a 2 gate vs a 16 hatch 15 pool (back in beta times) is proven to give an advantage to the protoss over zerg.
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I'd argue it's up to the Zerg to find the perfect amount of drones to deal with whatever protoss is doing. Which has always been one of, if not the most crucial skill of Zerg play.
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On November 25 2010 06:24 7mk wrote:
I'd argue it's up to the Zerg to find the perfect amount of drones to deal with whatever protoss is doing. Which has always been one of, if not the most crucial skill of Zerg play.
I'd argue it's always a balance between the skills of the two players, but that a totally neutral result favors protoss because of the units. But i agree with your viewpoint also :D i'm going purely off of feel and numbers really. since i've never played against this style.
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I hope we continue to see FE builds from toss in PvZ and that terran starts to do the same thing. It makes the game soooo much more interesting than these stupid rushes or 1A timing attacks.
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Does that mean that you shouldnt 14 hatch in pvz ? i mean yea cannon cheese, probe blocks etc. But this is very different. This is like the race mechanics of protoss vs zerg when both are playing at its greediest.
Tnx for the math man.
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On November 25 2010 06:50 PrinceXizor wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2010 06:24 7mk wrote:
I'd argue it's up to the Zerg to find the perfect amount of drones to deal with whatever protoss is doing. Which has always been one of, if not the most crucial skill of Zerg play. I'd argue it's always a balance between the skills of the two players, but that a totally neutral result favors protoss because of the units.
Well I'd still disagree with that because of the example I've given since in that one both players have an army equal in strength as well as an eco that is exactly equal.
Didn't mean to sound so harsh though, I'm just quite oversensitive for obvious reasons concerning current forum trends.
On November 25 2010 07:40 happyness wrote:
I hope we continue to see FE builds from toss in PvZ and that terran starts to do the same thing. It makes the game soooo much more interesting than these stupid rushes or 1A timing attacks.
I actually dont even remember the last time I saw a one base build in a high lvl PvZ except for Nazgul's blink stalkers.
I agree that that's generally a good thing though.
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On November 25 2010 06:50 PrinceXizor wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2010 06:24 7mk wrote:
I'd argue it's up to the Zerg to find the perfect amount of drones to deal with whatever protoss is doing. Which has always been one of, if not the most crucial skill of Zerg play. I'd argue it's always a balance between the skills of the two players, but that a totally neutral result favors protoss because of the units. But i agree with your viewpoint also :D i'm going purely off of feel and numbers really. since i've never played against this style.
I 100% disagree with this, in my eyes if the zerg plays _PERFECTLY_ and always produces the BARE MINIMUM to defend just before he needs it whenever the protoss attacks, he will end up with an econ advantage that slowly snowballs until he is way ahead.
The difference is, obviously, it's incredibly difficult for zerg to find this line.
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On November 25 2010 08:42 Ftrunkz wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2010 06:50 PrinceXizor wrote:On November 25 2010 06:24 7mk wrote:
I'd argue it's up to the Zerg to find the perfect amount of drones to deal with whatever protoss is doing. Which has always been one of, if not the most crucial skill of Zerg play. I'd argue it's always a balance between the skills of the two players, but that a totally neutral result favors protoss because of the units. But i agree with your viewpoint also :D i'm going purely off of feel and numbers really. since i've never played against this style. I 100% disagree with this, in my eyes if the zerg plays _PERFECTLY_ and always produces the BARE MINIMUM to defend just before he needs it whenever the protoss attacks, he will end up with an econ advantage that slowly snowballs until he is way ahead. The difference is, obviously, it's incredibly difficult for zerg to find this line.
100% disagree with which part? that the winner of the game is decided mostly by skill or that in the guinea pig vs 14 hatch scenerio that a neutral result benefits protoss (IE no change from the chart, protoss starts at minute 5 with army production and zerg at minute 7)
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On November 25 2010 08:42 Ftrunkz wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2010 06:50 PrinceXizor wrote:On November 25 2010 06:24 7mk wrote:
I'd argue it's up to the Zerg to find the perfect amount of drones to deal with whatever protoss is doing. Which has always been one of, if not the most crucial skill of Zerg play. I'd argue it's always a balance between the skills of the two players, but that a totally neutral result favors protoss because of the units. But i agree with your viewpoint also :D i'm going purely off of feel and numbers really. since i've never played against this style. I 100% disagree with this, in my eyes if the zerg plays _PERFECTLY_ and always produces the BARE MINIMUM to defend just before he needs it whenever the protoss attacks, he will end up with an econ advantage that slowly snowballs until he is way ahead. The difference is, obviously, it's incredibly difficult for zerg to find this line.
the entire op is telling you that if zerg plays perfectly he is still going to be behind 
does the data mean 14 hatching in this matchup should cease? or does it mean there is something else you can do to get ahead while hatching early?
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On November 25 2010 19:26 Inori wrote:
OP doesn't take into account that it's much deadlier for P not to make any units than for Z.
if Z spots agression he can use up all larvae to make units, which means 5+ units at a time, while for P it's usually 1 unit at a time. So in that scenario, yes, greedy zerg should be punished because Z lets P just sit there and spam E. Same as it is with P that lets Z just sit around and drone whore.
Also the ending conclusion shows OP bias, which makes all his calculation results questionable.
mathematics do not lie. ;/
as for agression in relation to zerg vs protoss, once that wallin is there and a couple of cannons any greedy zerg would be hard pressed to attack with anything because if it fails they are even FURTHER BEHIND.
It would be easier to take the third earlier as for protoss making 1 unit at the time. MANY GATEWAYS, only cost 150 mineralzzz ok?
in the end you are the biased one.
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On November 25 2010 20:01 Inori wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2010 19:47 Madkipz wrote:On November 25 2010 19:26 Inori wrote:
OP doesn't take into account that it's much deadlier for P not to make any units than for Z.
if Z spots agression he can use up all larvae to make units, which means 5+ units at a time, while for P it's usually 1 unit at a time. So in that scenario, yes, greedy zerg should be punished because Z lets P just sit there and spam E. Same as it is with P that lets Z just sit around and drone whore.
Also the ending conclusion shows OP bias, which makes all his calculation results questionable. mathematics do not lie. ;/ as for agression in relation to zerg vs protoss, once that wallin is there and a couple of cannons any greedy zerg would be hard pressed to attack with anything because if it fails they are even FURTHER BEHIND. It would be easier to take the third earlier as for protoss making 1 unit at the time. MANY GATEWAYS, only cost 150 mineralzzz ok? in the end you are the biased one. Statistics are easily manipulated. That and OP didn't say how these "mathematics" were done. Given his bias, he could, even unintentionally, forget some numbers here and there. A proper wall in with cannons costs a lot of money. And breaking it with roaches isn't really that hard with 4 range and some proper positioning. Wait, are we talking about pre-5-7 minute game? MANY GATEWAYS + proper wall in + a lot of cannons? Maybe throw in 12 carriers and a mothership in there as well? Sure, I'm biased because I disagree with OP. Lol ok.
Yea lets break his wall with roaches, we saw how well that went in the gsl uhuh......
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On November 25 2010 20:01 Inori wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2010 19:47 Madkipz wrote:On November 25 2010 19:26 Inori wrote:
OP doesn't take into account that it's much deadlier for P not to make any units than for Z.
if Z spots agression he can use up all larvae to make units, which means 5+ units at a time, while for P it's usually 1 unit at a time. So in that scenario, yes, greedy zerg should be punished because Z lets P just sit there and spam E. Same as it is with P that lets Z just sit around and drone whore.
Also the ending conclusion shows OP bias, which makes all his calculation results questionable. mathematics do not lie. ;/ as for agression in relation to zerg vs protoss, once that wallin is there and a couple of cannons any greedy zerg would be hard pressed to attack with anything because if it fails they are even FURTHER BEHIND. It would be easier to take the third earlier as for protoss making 1 unit at the time. MANY GATEWAYS, only cost 150 mineralzzz ok? in the end you are the biased one. Statistics are easily manipulated. That and OP didn't say how these "mathematics" were done. Given his bias, he could, even unintentionally, forget some numbers here and there. A proper wall in with cannons costs a lot of money. And breaking it with roaches isn't really that hard with 4 range and some proper positioning. Wait, are we talking about pre-5-7 minute game? MANY GATEWAYS + proper wall in + a lot of cannons? Maybe throw in 12 carriers and a mothership in there as well? Sure, I'm biased because I disagree with OP. Lol ok.
Okay guys relax. xD i got the data by playing through once as protoss focusing on perfect probe macro (which i would redo if i hit a supply block or forgot a drone/probe) and then went through the replays and noted when income outpaced spending (to note where protoss may begin spending on army without digging into probe spending) and note when larva spending ceases to increase income.
You can disagree with my conclusions that are opinionated easily and thats all okay. but my data and the observations from the data is not biased. and it explains WHY the build that Guineapig did worked so well at outmacroing the zerg. because he was able to keep the zerg from producing too many drones past 5 minutes.
it's okay for you to disagree with me though ^^
EDIT: i went into this not knowing if Guinea pig was maknig the right decision or not. though i suspected that protoss' economy would be decent (as is obvious if you know starcraft at all that making alot of workers = good economy).
also I'd be highly surprised if you can manage breaking a cannon wall with roaches before 5 minutes without hurting yourself severely as you may want to use that BO vs the 2 rax all in vs terran as their attack with scvs happens at 5 minutes into the game.
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The most surprising finding for me is that you can build 6 spine crawlers in 4 minutes without hurting your rate at which you saturate 2 bases O_o
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On November 26 2010 02:25 sooch wrote:
The most surprising finding for me is that you can build 6 spine crawlers in 4 minutes without hurting your rate at which you saturate 2 bases O_o
It's 1 per minute at minute 3 and 4 and 2 per minute after that. it's not 6 before minute 4.
But it does mean the 2 rax pressure will have to fight through 2-3 spines without havign too much worry. and that might be the edge Z needs to fight that off.
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Yeah my bad, typoed...but still, that is many spine crawlers, yes?
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On November 25 2010 05:59 PrinceXizor wrote:
As a side note this also shows that if zerg takes a third, then Protoss is more than capable of doing the same all while producing units/cannons
if the zerg takes a 3rd, greater production capabilities come with it
if protoss takes a 3rd all it can make with it are probes
just pointing it out because your post seems biased 
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EPT
