Haha, figure it was a win, win. Either I get to be right or Moore loses.
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GreenHorizons
United States22117 Posts
Haha, figure it was a win, win. Either I get to be right or Moore loses. | ||
Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On December 13 2017 20:48 GreenHorizons wrote: Haha, figure it was a win, win. Either I get to be right or Moore loses. I almost reported this post. Almost. | ||
brian
United States9562 Posts
oh apparently they’re aiming to have the bill finished next week. i don’t think they’ll be confirming Jones quite so quickly. sad. was still nice to wake up to good news this morning. | ||
zlefin
United States7689 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Nebuchad
Switzerland11589 Posts
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KOFgokuon
United States14886 Posts
On December 13 2017 22:16 brian wrote: I wonder if any lone R in the senate wants to suddenly defect from this tax bill as the one person that brings it all down now? will be interesting to watch go down. part of me hopes Trump lashes out at someone like a McCain and we get a no vote out of spite. Because i’m sure this won’t be the only L he takes between now and then. oh apparently they’re aiming to have the bill finished next week. i don’t think they’ll be confirming Jones quite so quickly. sad. was still nice to wake up to good news this morning. He won't be seated until late December or early January so this changes nothing if the senate and house can vote by end of year | ||
ahswtini
Northern Ireland22203 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States42980 Posts
On December 13 2017 22:54 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Roy meet Bus. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/940904649728708609 The deck was stacked against Roy Moore, even with Trump and other Republicans' support during the general election, in a super red state? | ||
ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
On December 13 2017 13:55 Plansix wrote: Identity politics works, it turns out. the rate at which african americans voted for jones, plus their turnout, was absolutely ridiculous. as heinous, illegal and straight up wrong as voter suppression is, you kinda see why the republicans do it, or try to. | ||
Mohdoo
United States15249 Posts
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
In deep-red Texas, Republicans will have to fight for every seat in Congress during next year's midterm elections. For the first time in 25 years, Democrats are running in all of Texas' 36 congressional districts, according to documents filed with the Texas Secretary of State's office. Those filings set a record for the number of Democratic challengers in an era of Republican dominance, says Mark Jones, political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute. They are a departure from 2016, he says, when eight Republican-held congressional seats went uncontested by Democrats. "We are seeing a groundswell of unusually high support and mobilization among progressive Democrats who are really angered by the Trump administration," Jones said. Even though Democrats are more motivated than they've been in years, Texas remains a mostly Republican state. The GOP swept all the statewide races in 2016 and Donald Trump won the state by nine percentage points. While the margin was closer than many years before, it's still a big gap for Texas Democrats to close. Democrats aren't just gunning for congressional seats. According to preliminary numbers from the Texas Democratic Party, Democrats are running in 89 percent of the seats in the Texas House and 88 percent of the seats in the Texas Senate. Both are the highest percentages the party has mustered since at least 1992. "We are seeing Democrats come out to run not only for the goal of challenging and doing something to voice their opposition to President Trump," Jones said. "But we are seeing Democrats come out in several districts where, in the past, Democrats had no chance whatsoever and had difficult time recruiting top-quality candidates." Historically, the opposition party can make big gains in Congress during the first midterm election following a presidential election. For example, Republicans won back the U.S. House in 2010 after the election of President Barack Obama in 2008. Jones says resistance to President Trump's policies has led to "enthusiasm and mobilization," particularly among more left-leaning Democrats. But he says that doesn't mean that Democrats can expect huge gains in dependably Republican Texas. "Outside of [congressional district] 23, held by Will Hurd, all of the Republican-held districts today, more likely than not, will stay Republican-held districts," Jones said. "But they are not locks, and certainly we can't consider them to be sure-things." Jones says it will take a perfect storm for Texas Democrats to make significant gains in Congress. He says Trump's approval ratings will have to continue to decline, Democrats will have to continue to out-fundraise their Republican opponents, and Republican candidates will have to make a lot of mistakes. Tariq Thowfeek, a spokesperson with the Texas Democratic Party, says he's optimistic Texas Democrats could help the party take control of the U.S. House. "Democrats need 24 seats to take back the House," he says. "I think four of those seats can come from Texas." But Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Austin, says flipping four Republican-held seats in Texas won't be easy. "This has the potential to be more competitive statewide," says Steinhauser. "Although, I would think most Republicans would say that we are still probably not going to lose any incumbents this cycle." Texas' congressional map doesn't favor Democrats. Federal courts have ruled the congressional map drawn by the GOP-led Texas Legislature intentionally discriminates against minority voters, which tends to hurt Democratic candidates. However, the U.S. Supreme Court has put a hold on the effects of those rulings as it weighs a gerrymandering case from Wisconsin. Source | ||
Gahlo
United States35046 Posts
On December 13 2017 22:58 Nebuchad wrote: Obviously we shouldn't take this tweet seriously since it was written by a child but if we were to do that it would betray either a prior knowledge of the accusations against Moore or a comical lack of knowledge of Alabama. To actually think Moore would lose the general election at the time he beat Strange... Results based analysis on full display. | ||
kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
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farvacola
United States18803 Posts
On December 13 2017 23:50 kollin wrote: Is it common for either party to give up contesting seats if they don't think they have a chance? Do Republicans commonly not contest firmly blue seats? Depends on the district in question, but Democrats tend to give up on difficult races moreso than Republicans. | ||
kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
On December 13 2017 23:51 farvacola wrote: Depends on the district in question, but Democrats tend to give up on difficult races moreso than Republicans. Are resources so limited for Democrats that they feel they need to do this? It seems absolutely insane to me not to just run someone, and I can't help but feel that it's no wonder the general 'message' of the Democrats isn't penetrating particular areas if they literally abandon the democratic process like that. | ||
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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farvacola
United States18803 Posts
On December 13 2017 23:55 kollin wrote: Are resources so limited for Democrats that they feel they need to do this? It seems absolutely insane to me not to just run someone, and I can't help but feel that it's no wonder the general 'message' of the Democrats isn't penetrating particular areas if they literally abandon the democratic process like that. Chalk it up to how impotent the DNC has become, though the across the board weakening of unions is also at fault here. Hopefully, Jones' win will shake up establishment attitudes towards ostensibly long shot races. | ||
Nebuchad
Switzerland11589 Posts
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zlefin
United States7689 Posts
On December 13 2017 23:55 kollin wrote: Are resources so limited for Democrats that they feel they need to do this? It seems absolutely insane to me not to just run someone, and I can't help but feel that it's no wonder the general 'message' of the Democrats isn't penetrating particular areas if they literally abandon the democratic process like that. they'll often run "someone", but they're a nobody and aren't given national support, because they often have no real chance. the quality of the candidates is often quite poor when they do that (in part because quality people have better options/things to do than run a race that will lose, and losing can taint your career a bit, especially if you have a bad showing) in areas where a typical vote outcome is say 65/35, it kinda makes sense to not put resources into it unless the circumstances are unusual. it's hard to get people to donate money for somethin that has no chance of winning. | ||
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