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Yeah sure, it's hard to draw the line. Everyone makes mistakes as mafia, if we didn't the game would just be RNG-fest. Also this:
On May 18 2015 06:38 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2015 06:32 Palmar wrote:On May 17 2015 03:07 justanothertownie wrote: I mean Palmar is probably the only player on this team that is even remotely able to imitate his towngame as scum. Do you know how hard it is to fake my day 1 play as mafia? I guess the later days are easier, but I have one of the most distinctive day 1 style on TL Mafia. Faking the insight, subtle tone reads and productive aggression that I usually play with on day 1 is super hard. If you can tell me how to do it, please do. I can't. I just know that to me your play usually looks very very similar as long as you are not on the chopping block. That's when your alignment becomes really obvious as town.
Is simply a matter of perception
I probably overestimate the difference and you probably underestimate. The correct answer is most likely somewhere in the middle.
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On May 18 2015 05:08 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2015 05:06 Xatalos wrote:It was so much easier to play as a 3P in the Ippo game Way easier to adapt to situations and do whatever felt best. Well, obviously. Because you didn't know the scumteam. The game is prove for why 3ps suck so much. Punishing the better team etc.
Then again, I remember someone saying that the scumteam is defined by their best player while the town is defined by its worse players. I certainly think HF deserves to win after playing so well despite the crushing start. Most would have given up at that point, I think. It goes without saying that a 3P is defined by the individual player
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
Ver - no it doesn't feel like an attack at all, I think we're all aware of our failings :p Just the reasoning is all
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On May 18 2015 06:58 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2015 05:08 justanothertownie wrote:On May 18 2015 05:06 Xatalos wrote:It was so much easier to play as a 3P in the Ippo game Way easier to adapt to situations and do whatever felt best. Well, obviously. Because you didn't know the scumteam. The game is prove for why 3ps suck so much. Punishing the better team etc. Then again, I remember someone saying that the scumteam is defined by their best player while the town is defined by its worse players. I certainly think HF deserves to win after playing so well despite the crushing start. Most would have given up at that point, I think. It goes without saying that a 3P is defined by the individual player Without trying to take credit away from HF - I don't think bussing your 4 inactive scummates and surviving 3 lynches after that is that impressive. He is most likely the best scum player on this site right now but mafia did not deserve to win this game at all. And none of that is a point for 3ps being good anyways.
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11589 Posts
Honestly this game becomes way harder for town if the KP roles miss or just don't shoot. There were a multitude of mistakes from townies that were game losingly bad but town KP roles bailed them out.
mafia played bad enough to get shot, and that's essentially the story of this game.
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On May 18 2015 07:03 yamato77 wrote: Honestly this game becomes way harder for town if the KP roles miss or just don't shoot. There were a multitude of mistakes from townies that were game losingly bad but town KP roles bailed them out.
mafia played bad enough to get shot, and that's essentially the story of this game. Agreed.
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Btw. another thing about this game:
I would rather read a whole page of filter than one of the wallposts that have been produced this game. Seriously. The only one who managed to make them somewhat readable is geript. That's also why I generally do not like posting restrictions. If you want to talk about different subjects then you should use different posts because otherwise it just gets really annoying to read your stuff. If you want to make a wall then at least make sure that there is some kind of structure to it otherwise it is really tempting to skim or just not read it at all. Especially if the person in question is obviously town anyways.
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I would have liked to see a bit more analysis on my play. Admittedly I was in a unique position as traitor, but it would have been nice to seem some points that I could improve on. The one point that Ver brought up about me (ignoring the result of the D1 lynch) though I don't think applies to me generally; I just don't care about the result of a failed lynch and I'd rather look to see what I could find otherwise. There's also the problem that half of the game was played in QT for me which they couldn't really read/analyze.
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11589 Posts
Don't waste your guesses early?
Your goal is to get on the mafia team at any point. Obviously earlier is better but any time is better than not at all.
Also, you should Mason your scumreads to figure out if they are mafia. Don't Mason clear townies like me. Also never claim any part of your role unless forced to because mafia might just kill you.
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On May 18 2015 08:06 yamato77 wrote: Don't waste your guesses early?
Your goal is to get on the mafia team at any point. Obviously earlier is better but any time is better than not at all.
Also, you should Mason your scumreads to figure out if they are mafia. Don't Mason clear townies like me. Also never claim any part of your role unless forced to because mafia might just kill you. Well the reason why I ended up claiming my role was because Marv claimed to me. I'm not sure about wasting guesses. It's a bit of a mix. I expected to remain alive for a while, but I didn't think if 4-5 stayed alive it mattered if I were with the team or not. If the game snowballed heavily in town's favor, I don't think it matters really if I'm on the team or not. Like at some point I have to explain why I'm alive as a role. Plus, I knew that PalmAr, Marv and you (yamato) would recognize most posting pretty early most likely. I probably should've been more interested in trying to isolate scumreads and full claim to them.
To fully explain my strategy, I didn't expect that people wouldn't claim my role for me by the end of day 2. More than that I didn't expect my ability to compartmentalize what people said. IE. if I fake adding only 1 person per day, then I have to either do that exactly or have to remember and not post about what player 1B said in 1A's QT. I also can't talk about what 1B said in 2A's QT either. I run my mouth too much for that. I'd make a huge slip there at some point. In relation, I think I could've chosen my D2 QTs better. Probably should've mixed it up with like xat and jat as 1 of them was likely scum and could get mafia to join. But I was trying to play around my own weakness as a player and then sacrifice myself for the team.
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On May 18 2015 07:37 justanothertownie wrote: Btw. another thing about this game:
I would rather read a whole page of filter than one of the wallposts that have been produced this game. Seriously. The only one who managed to make them somewhat readable is geript. That's also why I generally do not like posting restrictions. If you want to talk about different subjects then you should use different posts because otherwise it just gets really annoying to read your stuff. If you want to make a wall then at least make sure that there is some kind of structure to it otherwise it is really tempting to skim or just not read it at all. Especially if the person in question is obviously town anyways.
This is the ONLY reason I used wallposts towards the upper end of my posting limit and I knew it was going to give people headaches even as I painstakingly altered the format of it.
Generally speaking I prefer casing things but I still tried to have conversations as I could with people without exceeding the limit (and I always count in a restricted game anyhow).
I'm not sure how strict the hosts were with the postcount though, there were what, 2 warnings? I'm guessing if you went more than 10 posts over it was a warning?
Thank goodness I didn't have to post often from mobile D1 though, I would have been in trouble.
I realised there were complaints on Rasputin and a few others' formatted post, hopefully mine weren't too horrible prior to EoN.
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Also I read the whole game but I didn't think the spam was that bad or hard to keep up with. I am used to the style of play though and I didn't feel the game was hard to follow.
I know ver mentioned that about the game some people were more spammy etc and quiet players giving away posts meh but I didn't think it was all that bad
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On May 18 2015 10:56 Damdred wrote: Also I read the whole game but I didn't think the spam was that bad or hard to keep up with. I am used to the style of play though and I didn't feel the game was hard to follow.
I know ver mentioned that about the game some people were more spammy etc and quiet players giving away posts meh but I didn't think it was all that bad I actually thought that the activity level was perfect for me. It allowed enough for a spammy style players without letting them over run the game. Other than a handful of players who should've been policy lynched or shot (Stutters, RoL, etc.), I didn't think that most people were really that inactive. I mean, if RoL plays like that in any other game I'm in, I'm just going to policy lynch him D1 because there's really not a point for him to play. I can't really remember any sort of analysis he gave or any positive addition.
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Blazinghand
United States25546 Posts
thanks for the great analysis!!!!!!
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I've read this over again and it's really good analysis despite the game being so short and sort of easy to figure out. I'm particularly impressed with incog's analysis of xatalos regarding the bm post. Very objective, detailed and pretty much proves the guy is mafia. I wish you guys would play some games in the future. Great job as always.
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I had not enough time
Oh well
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Does RoL normally lurk like this every game he plays or has this only been more recently? If this is how he plays all the time, I would vigi shoot him every time.
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On May 19 2015 07:10 Half the Sky wrote: Does RoL normally lurk like this every game he plays or has this only been more recently? If this is how he plays all the time, I would vigi shoot him every time. He doesn't like a spammy thread.
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On May 17 2015 22:09 justanothertownie wrote: I am highly amused that someone made the effort to analyse my day2 play like I actually tried to win at that point. I am also highly irritated that someone said I should have pushed BH harder night1 when I was not only completely out of posts but also doing so to some degree. Preventing Palmar from getting shot is Palmars job, his team cannot make up for his stupid pushes. And a BM flip would certainly not have incriminated me because after the second nuke I pushed noone but him - I did not defend him or try to avoid his lynch at all. I mean you guys can claim you would have caught the whole mafia team day1 or close to that but before I believe that I want to see you actually do that in a game nowadays without loads of additional information. Let's say I have my doubts.
Still an interesting read. Thanks for all this effort.
My point in mentioning the day 2 play was not so much to suggest that you are trying to win, but to generally point out how mafia should use KP roles. Like Ver mentioned in his post on reactivity, I think a lot of mafias play their KP roles reactively and don't formulate a posting plan around using this KP. Which means that KP ends up getting used defensively only as a last ditch effort ("screw it I might as well take someone with me") rather than offensively to actively hinder the town.
For a case study on how to set up your shot before hand, see Ace in PYP Insane here.
Now forget the fact that at this point in the game, Ace has already given away the fact that he is mafia and was caught in the posts here and here. Ace has been a powerhouse in the thread, attacking both Radfield and me. So most people actually think I'm mafia, including Radfield. Ace has been pushing the idea that both of us are mafia so hard that by the time he shoots me, he can post this in the thread:
On May 23 2011 02:59 Ace wrote: Anyway I shot Incognito last night. I said I was going to do it like 10 times in the thread. Welp, shit happens :D
...
4.) Back to Incognito
If you think I'm scum because Incognito died scrub your brain. I've already explained that he was playing Scummy from the beginning but we're not going to rehash that. Read the thread if you want.
...and totally get away with it. It doesn't matter that if you look at the case closely this is an obvious mis-shoot. What matters is that Ace's action of shooting me is consistent with the persona he set up in the thread. So Ace claims the shot and gets away with it because nothing about it is unusual. Given the posting in the thread, it wouldn't be a stretch to think that I'm scummy. And if you believe that I was scummy, then it is totally plausible that Ace is simply town and decided he had a good chance killing a mafia by shooting me. End of story.
In my experience though, mafia very rarely use KP roles (especially public ones like nukes/day vigs) optimally. Anyone who doubted that you were mafia would certainly be convinced after your shot. Also keep in mind that sometimes as mafia you think you are more obvious than you actually are. In the PYP Insane game, Kurumi decided to use his suicide bomber powers in a panic when he was slightly suspected even though his lynch was far from a sure thing. And if you can clean up your in thread posting and get people to lay off even for a while (people tend to have short memories around here), you might be able to save yourself for a time when a credible shot can actually be fired.
I'm not sure who said you should have pushed BH because that was definitely not me. Attacking BH is ok, but not entirely necessary given that the vote ends up being between 2 townies.
On May 17 2015 22:40 justanothertownie wrote: Essentially I am a little annoyed at how much flak I get here. I did not play a good game - that is for sure. But almost noone was really scumreading me anymore by the end of night1. Palmar on the other hand is not only doing nothing to push scumagenda but also being scumread by most of the important people which leads to him being shot as our most important role. Still people say he played well and I didn't and that it is my fault he got shot. Yeah, right.
I'm not trying to attack you (and the mafia), so sorry about that. I essentially did my analysis from the townie perspective, which means that mafia will get more scrutiny just because I'm trying to find what makes them mafia. Plenty of townies had bad posts (or got distracted even if they got the right analysis, which is equivalent to firing a shotgun and being excited that one out of the many pellets hit your target). It is just easier to comment on these bad posts generally in the abstract since pointing these out don't give insight into how dig deep into telling mafia posts. Perhaps next time we will try splitting the analysis and having one of us do it solely from the mafia perspective.
Not sure who thinks its your fault for Palmar getting shot, but I don't really see a connection there. Palmar got shot because he started a game of chicken and lost. Someone saw through his scheme and called his bluff. That's pretty much it. Not much to do with you at all...
On the same note, mafia did not punish GB hard enough for his two big mistakes: pardoning BM and executing blazinghand. Palmar attempts to push hard on people’s tame reactions after GB pardons BM, but this doesn’t go nearly far enough. There is totally room for chaos/panic/a well placed day vig shot, especially after the BH execution.
This shows a clear lack of knowledge about the gamestate. There is NO way anyone gets away with pushing GB here because of how obviously town he is.
Sure, by Day 2 GB is obviously town (partly because mafia let him gain that status unchallenged). And his Day 1 posting (besides the pardon) is fairly decent, so many people think he's town. But GB's pardon is certainly anti-town. Unless the town is ripping itself to shreds, you can't expect as mafia to just be able to coast along without challenging people's bad behavior. Ace does this all the time. Someone makes an anti-town move? Attack them and put on the heat. Make them slip up in their attempts to defend their actions and nit pick at their mistakes. Of course, their guilt is fabricated, but that's what makes you the mafia!
As mafia, you already know who's town and who's not, so it might be "obvious" that all the town thinks that way. This might make you too conservative because you think that "obviously no mafia could be so bad as to..." Wait a second...thats exactly what happened to BM and GB!! "Those moves are so bad...could they be town?" GB happened to be town, but BM mafia. It's easy to trap yourself into a corner since you know you're guilty (of murdering townspeople in cold blood). To play well as mafia, you need to be able to step outside of the mafia shoes and picture what a townie knows and what information could cause them to second-guess themselves. As mafia, you have to be willing to pick some fights to make people trip up - especially if they're actually starting to piece things together. And of course, even if it turns out that you're wrong and nobody is really willing to change their mind on GB being scummy, its not like this dooms you to being lynched. Townies go into tunnelmode all the time. You won't really look that out of place by attacking GB. I mean, look at how GB got away scot-free by pardoning a mafia AND lynching a townie!!!
On May 18 2015 01:55 GlowingBear wrote:This is the first time I see good players advocating against constant reads post. I've alway advocate the "post what you see", because it generates discussion. Generating discussion will have people dropping information in thread. Information in thread means you have instruments to work with. If you take a game like Avogadro's Mini Mafia, for example. A lot of townies lurked and it was impossible to figure out their alignment because there simply wasn't enough information in thread. That is why I posted the flawed reads case early on. It's based on weak arguments, but of course it got people talking. I don't see why that it is bad. Can someone clarify it for me? Also, regarding this: Show nested quote +
Key here is that they all felt they had to address BM but didn’t want to push him hardcore, so they have this awkward situation where they try to not get BM pushed but not look like they’re ignoring it
I got marv doing this with Onegu. He was Mafia. But I also got oats doing this with other people he raised suspicions and never revisited. How do you differ when a townie do and a Mafia do?
"Post what you see" in the beginning of the game (before any information is out) is alright if you can steer the conversation well and actually find mafia. But most people don't do it right, and "post what you see" ends up with you "going down a rabbit hole", leading to spammy threads and reactive thinking. It's just as easy to get useless information in a discussion and be lynching into townies with that rather than finding the mafia. Unless you actually hit a mafia nerve, they are free to just nitpick at townies with you without having to force their hand.
You don't want to lead into a discussion where people nitpick at small points and don't zoom out to see what the town atmosphere looks like and where the mafia might be hiding. Notice both Ver's and my analysis focus on figuring out what the critical issue is, assessing the thread atmosphere, and noting whether the mafia is forced to react or not. Does the mafia feel comfortable letting town carry on the discussion? Or are they panicking in response to a member being outed? Is the mafia in control of the conversation or is it just townies blowing hot air?
After you get a big issue on the table for discussion, "post what you see" is essentially useless. Sure, there might be some lurkers in your midst (RoL, Stutters, VE and a few others with relatively few posts come to mind), but inevitably if a mafia gets caught on the hot seat, something will happen. Sure, it might be the case that one mafia is just completely MIA, but usually you have time to either figure that out, or cull them out with Vig shots anyway. Remember that you can generally only kill 1 mafia per day (absent vig shots and double lynches), so trying to figure out everyone at once is unnecessary and quite frankly distracting. Unfortunately sometimes inactive players will just make the game more frustrating for everyone. Trying to hunt everyone down with "post what you see" probably isn't the best way to deal with it though.
If you take a look at this previous analysis by Ver right in the top section, you might find a more detailed answer.
Here's the relevant section:
On May 22 2014 20:30 Ver wrote:
Why is everyone constantly asking questions, getting mad when others don’t answer their questions, and always wanting to have a conversation.
Winning as town isn’t about playing 20 questions, it’s about identifying people who are trying their hardest not to let you figure them out. Sometimes I feel people mistake this whole “lets have a conversation” or “answer my questions!!” as an ends whereas it is just a means, and usually not a very effective one. I haven’t asked a single question or looked at anyone’s responses to questions when analyzing whether someone is mafia yet. All of my intuition/analysis has come from looking at reactions to situations, and congruence of words/actions/persona. That’s it, just those two factors.
To be precise, I don’t feel it is very useful to put potential mafia on their guard, and it’s just distracting to townies to bombard them with questions (unless you are using questions as a subtle means of directing their focus onto something you want. This is great). I believe the best ways of figuring out mafia lie one step beyond their words. I don’t care about what they say, I care about the context, the framework. Because mafia pay all their attention to what they are saying, and not in the box in which they say it.. Focus on what others don’t.
Create an event or force them to react to a circumstance; this disarms them (as they don’t feel threatened). Ask Ace a question and he’ll give very townie sounding answers. Let Ace do what he wants, force thread development, and he reveals himself by seeing the right things and not taking any action on it. Ask Vayne a question and he’ll say whatever, but ignore him and he’ll tell on himself by complaining about scum trashing the thread then spam it up himself and only focus on irrelevancies.
Of course, some may have gotten good mileage out of this method in games I haven’t read. But if you are a big proponent of conversations and question answering I want you to carefully look at your best mafia reads and figure out exactly how you drew those conclusions. How much does question answering factor in? I feel questions have much, much more power in live games; in forum mafia there’s an inevitable filter (no matter if it is a “real time conversation”) that really detracts from its usefulness.
In fact, I feel questions/conversations best serve mafia actually because proper mafia play relies on planting an idea in the mind of a townie, then letting them push their idea, fail, and take the blame for it while you sit on the sidelines and laugh. Questions are the best way to subtly implant that kind of idea (whereas mafia tend to react to questions more defensively inside their head and get more prepared, making it tricky to read into their answers). Ace does this very well for example.
For the future, try making provocative statements and thread situations instead of relying on sissy questions to create useful reactions and disjoint mafia personas.
As to the second part of your question, I'd have to look at the specific posts involved to be able to tell if you were on the right track or not. There's also a pretty big difference softening the memorability of your non-opinion post and making cases and never revisiting them. It's totally possible that a hyperactive townie could bounce from lead to lead without having mafia motivations. Town, on the other hand, generally don't try to appear like they are addressing an issue without actually addressing it. On the other hand, sometimes you're just wrong, as this method isn't 100% foolproof. For example, I was pretty sure Vivax was mafia in this game, but it turns out he wasn't.
On May 18 2015 02:03 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2015 01:04 Xatalos wrote:All in all, a lot of miscommunication and lackluster plays from our team. marv at least managed to stay somewhat unsuspected during all that But that's hardly enough when the rest are dead... This is what made me laugh about the analysis about mafia planning. I played pretty ok most of d1, but I cannot allow for BM shooting nukes off without warning, and I can't allow for Xata (and jat to an extent, especially early) just being very suspicious by playing not very strongly. And I cannot count for Palmar making this terrible, terrible push on sandroba (and then me) that basically only comes from mafia. Most of you are too young (lol) to remember Bureaucracy mafia (another Ver game), but in that game mafia-Palmar made a nonsensical push on obviously town syllogism. Just history repeating itself. Which obviously puts me (who is supposed to know Palmar better than anyone) in an extraordinarily difficult position. Because town-me strings up Palmar immediately. My point being, it was never a failure of planning etc on our part - we didn't need janitor, even in hindsight with the analysis going "omg why not pick janitor" - no, we did not need janitor at all. What we needed was scumteam members not to do random terrible shit on their own accord, not to place other members in terrible positions for no reason, just solid play. Another funny aside is that both days the game lasted, we lynched a townie. I managed to make the d1 wagons from mafia-town to town-town. What we lacked was playing a solid game, people not doing terrible shit for no reason.
As for the mafia strategy section, that was written before knowing what happened behind the scenes in the mafia QT (aka, with no knowledge of the fact that BM went rogue), so the thoughts on whether the BM stuff was planned or not was simply speculation given imperfect information. Rogue BM was a cause for most of your misfortunes and the ensuing events outed all the mafia. Picking Janitor obviously wouldn't have saved you in this situation. But strictly speaking, Janitor is a very strong choice for the reasons stated previously and would have been a role I would have instantly picked without hesitation. So it was more of a surprise that it wasn't picked rather than a "pick janitor autowin!"
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United Kingdom35817 Posts
Sure, by Day 2 GB is obviously town (partly because mafia let him gain that status unchallenged). And his Day 1 posting (besides the pardon) is fairly decent, so many people think he's town. But GB's pardon is certainly anti-town. Unless the town is ripping itself to shreds, you can't expect as mafia to just be able to coast along without challenging people's bad behavior. Ace does this all the time. Someone makes an anti-town move? Attack them and put on the heat. Make them slip up in their attempts to defend their actions and nit pick at their mistakes. Of course, their guilt is fabricated, but that's what makes you the mafia!
As mafia, you already know who's town and who's not, so it might be "obvious" that all the town thinks that way. This might make you too conservative because you think that "obviously no mafia could be so bad as to..." Wait a second...thats exactly what happened to BM and GB!! "Those moves are so bad...could they be town?" GB happened to be town, but BM mafia. It's easy to trap yourself into a corner since you know you're guilty (of murdering townspeople in cold blood). To play well as mafia, you need to be able to step outside of the mafia shoes and picture what a townie knows and what information could cause them to second-guess themselves. As mafia, you have to be willing to pick some fights to make people trip up - especially if they're actually starting to piece things together. And of course, even if it turns out that you're wrong and nobody is really willing to change their mind on GB being scummy, its not like this dooms you to being lynched. Townies go into tunnelmode all the time. You won't really look that out of place by attacking GB. I mean, look at how GB got away scot-free by pardoning a mafia AND lynching a townie!!!
This is all deeply and fundamentally wrong.
The game isn't played like it was 5 years ago.
If I just shat on GB, strong players would lynch me for it. Even worse when you're nitpicking, just makes you look even worse.
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