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The Avalon MSL Round of 32 Groups E-H
I'll save the in depth analysis and detailed game reports for the "real" MSL, aka the Round of 16, when it will be much easier to follow and write about. Keep in mind that each Ro32 group plays its first two matches and the winners match, with the final two matches played out on a later date.
In case you missed the first day of Groups A-D, you can catch up with my recap of the games or just get the results in motbob's MSL Results & Standings thread.
If you are still unfamiliar with the format: + Show Spoiler [Show Format Explanation] +
1. Four players in each group, two matches (let's call them Match A and Match B).
2. Winners of Match A and Match B play each other. Let's call this Match C.
3. Winner of Match C advances to MSL Round of 16.
...
4. Losers of Match A and B play each other. Let's call this Match D.
5. Winner of Match D plays the loser of Match C. Let's call this Match E.
6. Winner of this match advances to MSL Ro16.
Right now, every group plays out Matches A, B, and C (Steps 1-3). Match D and E (Steps 4-6) are saved for a later date. So do not be scared that your favorite player lost at first, it doesn't mean he is out of the MSL. He still has a chance, it's just going to be harder for him.
2. Winners of Match A and Match B play each other. Let's call this Match C.
3. Winner of Match C advances to MSL Round of 16.
...
4. Losers of Match A and B play each other. Let's call this Match D.
5. Winner of Match D plays the loser of Match C. Let's call this Match E.
6. Winner of this match advances to MSL Ro16.
Right now, every group plays out Matches A, B, and C (Steps 1-3). Match D and E (Steps 4-6) are saved for a later date. So do not be scared that your favorite player lost at first, it doesn't mean he is out of the MSL. He still has a chance, it's just going to be harder for him.
The highlight of Groups E-H is clearly the Jaedong, Leta, Fantasy, and Movie Group F, where fanboys were salivating over the possibility of a winners match between Jaedong and Leta on outsider. But professional StarCraft rarely plays out the way the fans want. The most recent example was last OSL, where Fantasy robbed us of what would have been a ridiculously awesome Bisu versus Jaedong finals. In Bo1 group formats, all bets are off.
I'm sure all of you know by now that Jaedong picked Effort for his OSL group, which in addition to the two best ZvZ players, features the best TvZ player (Flash) against the three best ZvT players (JD, Effort, Yarnc). Fans were pissed that it meant only two of Jaedong, Effort, and Flash would be making it to the Round of 8. But in reality, it was very likely one or even two of them would be upset in a different group anyway, so we should really be kind of happy that we're guaranteed that one of them (probably two) make it through.
One more thing about the OSL Group Selection before we get to the MSL games. Was it a good choice to pick Effort? I'd say no. While this isn't as stupid as Midas picking Savior back in Shinhan 3 (where you picked someone to Bo3 against, not just play in groups), it's still stupid because anything can happen in one game, something Jaedong should know first hand after playing Movie. This is true especially for ZvZ, and especially against CJ players, who seem to have Jaedong's number when it comes to single game sets. Did you know Jaedong is 1-4 in his last five single-set games against CJ players?
Group E
Live Report Thread
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
It's difficult to recap a 25+ minute TvT in one paragraph, so forgive me if I miss some details. Iris opens factory expand while Nada 2-facs, but fails to deal much damage other than a marginally effective vulture runby. Iris has more tanks and threatens Nada's natural, eventually settling for good position on Nada's third. Nada does a nice wraith switch which catches Iris off guard, but superior macro due to faster expansions wins it for Iris. The final attack on Nada's third shows some nice Berserker-style TvT tank line break.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Horang opens 1-gate range expo into DT drop, while Up opens 1-fac expo. For these two, these are remarkably standard openings. Up skips turrets, gets two scanners, uses mines to stop ground DTs and moves out with two tanks a handful of vultures before Horang could drop. The attack deals a ton of damage, plowing through Horang's natural easily, as Horang was relying on DTs to defend. Intelligent and well-executed game from Up, who correctly guessed Horang's build and countered perfectly.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Iris opens fac-port-expand while Up goes fac-expand-port. The fast port allows Iris to use his first wraith and dropship to do some damage to Up's expansion, killing a few SCVs before the drop is cleaned up by Up's wraiths. Iris's next army of tank goliath forces Up's natural to lift. Up counters but is stopped by defending goliaths and SCVs. Iris loses a lot of SCVs but holds his expansion. Meanwhile, Up uses his first dropship to break out of the contain at his natural. But Iris has two tanks and two goliaths already in position to siege Up's natural gas from the adjacent cliff. Up counterattacks by dropping tanks on the cliff behind Iris's natural, which delays mining for a bit. Iris slow pushes into Up's main from the outside cliff. Both players take their third base. Iris at this point has been mining two gas for a longer time than Up, and uses his superior dropship count to kill Up's third, and eventually Up's main from above.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Iris has been missing from CJ's proleague roster recently in favor of the younger Skyhigh, but his TvT clearly hasn't slipped. This group was rather weak relative to the others, but I am happy that another CJ player makes it through. Iris is old school, and one of the few Terrans who is genuinely exciting to watch. People forget, this guy was one timing attack away from an OSL title a few seasons back. Also, he was super nice at Blizzcon 2007. As for the remaining three players, I'm sure everyone is hoping Nada makes it. It's certainly not impossible, as neither Horang2 nor UpMagic are upper tier players. But if Nada is just going to flame out at the Round of 16 again, I'd much rather see one of the other two play a series given their unique styles.
Group F
Live Report Thread
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
After the epic TvT Leta had with Flash on Medusa in Proleague, everyone expected him to advance here. Both players open very standard, Fantasy going fac-port-cc and Leta opting for a later starport after expanding. After some vulture drops and harass on both sides, the map is split in half and both players have ground armies with dropships as well. Leta seems to have more dropships, but foolishly loses several to turrets, wraiths, and goliaths when he unsuccessfully attempts to drop Fantasy's main. After that, Fantasy is in the lead and slowly grinds his way to the win, wearing Leta down after each successive attack and drop. So we'll have to settle for Fantasy versus Jaedong in the winners match, because there's no way Movie can beat Lee Jae Dong, right? Right!?!?
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Jaedong does the standard three hatch spire into more hatcheries and hydra, but Movie has a nasty surprise for him. Instead of doing the standard corsair and templar tech, Movie does a timing attack with several ranged goons, constantly rallying from five gates. Jaedong is caught with his pants down, and while his slow, non-ranged hydras would have been fine against a speedzeal attack due to nice building placement and sunkens, his army sucks against ranged goons. Movie proceeds to pick him apart, microing his goons well and constantly reinforcing the attack. Jaedong can never achieve a critical mass of upgraded hydras or zerglings, and eventually loses his natural. Jaedong finally masses enough speedlings to kill the goon group, but at this point Movie is too far ahead and wins with the next attack wave of archons.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Movie opens proxy DT cheese, pushing a probe all the way around the back to make a gate, citadel, and archives behind Fantasy's back natural. Fantasy opens standard fac-cc, and Movie brilliantly lets him scout a probe about to make a nexus, and then doesn't make it after the SCV dies. The plan looks like its going to work, as Movie sends one DT to the front and pushes one through the back, but Fantasy's early academy and quick reflexes allow him to defend both fronts simultaneously. Fantasy mines his back entrance and expands to his front natural after clearing it of DTs. Mines (a particularly crazy one) stop more DT shenanigans and Fantasy harasses with dropships while taking his other back natural. Movie unsuccessfully attempts to shuttle goon break the front, and is now on three bases (fourth warping) and close to arbiter.
Fantasy does a few successful vulture raids, running Movie's army all around the map and into a ton of mines. Movie recalls, kills a ton of SCVs and Fantasy is down to 1.5 mining bases versus Movie's 3.5. Movie recalls again, killing a lot of scvs and the CC at Fantasy's other back natural. Fantasy's economy is in shambles, but he still has a large army. Movie makes a big mistake by attacking at that moment right into Fantasy's front (his arbiter who was going to stasis gets EMP'd), losing most of his army. This allows Fantasy to unsiege and take another base while rolling over Movie's natural, throwing up a few nice EMPs so Movie couldn't stasis.
Instead of going into the main, Fantasy decides to turn around and take out Movie's outlying expos. Fantasy shuts down Movie's final two mining bases. Movie's remaining army comes out of his main and there's another huge clash. This time Movie comes out on top, and almost breaks into Fantasy's main, but the attack stalls. Fantasy is still mining from a single mineral base, but Movie has no more income and concedes. Ridiculous game. Fantasy is one tenacious player, and his ability to constantly lay mines everywhere won it for him .
Fantasy does a few successful vulture raids, running Movie's army all around the map and into a ton of mines. Movie recalls, kills a ton of SCVs and Fantasy is down to 1.5 mining bases versus Movie's 3.5. Movie recalls again, killing a lot of scvs and the CC at Fantasy's other back natural. Fantasy's economy is in shambles, but he still has a large army. Movie makes a big mistake by attacking at that moment right into Fantasy's front (his arbiter who was going to stasis gets EMP'd), losing most of his army. This allows Fantasy to unsiege and take another base while rolling over Movie's natural, throwing up a few nice EMPs so Movie couldn't stasis.
Instead of going into the main, Fantasy decides to turn around and take out Movie's outlying expos. Fantasy shuts down Movie's final two mining bases. Movie's remaining army comes out of his main and there's another huge clash. This time Movie comes out on top, and almost breaks into Fantasy's main, but the attack stalls. Fantasy is still mining from a single mineral base, but Movie has no more income and concedes. Ridiculous game. Fantasy is one tenacious player, and his ability to constantly lay mines everywhere won it for him .
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Fantasy the bracket buster. How many times does this guy have to "upset" people before he is regarded as the favorite? He's weird looking, he does weird builds, and he sometimes fails spectacularly. But when he's on, he's got the highest ceiling out of anyone. Yes, higher than Bisu and Jaedong, because the SK Telecom Terran mystique cannot be denied. After this group, fanboys cried themselves to sleep, because either Leta or Jaedong will be eliminated from the MSL in a few weeks.
The build Movie used against Jaedong was not new. Much actually used it twice, once against GoRush in the Shinhan 3 OSL and once against Keke in the 10th MSL Survivor Tournament. Movie's build was slightly different, skipping corsair. Jaedong should have realized that no stargate meant something was wrong. Despite this win and his better qualifying position, Movie should pray that Leta takes out Jaedong, because while he has the PvT ability to beat Leta, he is still an underdog against Jaedong. The goon rush build was a one-trick pony that will not work a second time.
I know most people were hoping for Nada and Jaedong to come out of these groups, but Iris and Fantasy are two Terrans who have the ability and flair to both go deep in the bracket and produce entertaining games as well.
Group G
Live Report Thread
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Savior opens two hatch muta, taking his third gas along with his spire. Canata goes bio, makes 0 comsats, and moves out early with a group of mm. Savior's overlord at Canata's natural doesn't see this, and his four zerglings don't either. The result is Canata waltzing into Savior's undefended, sunkenless natural. It's a mistake that's understandable, but its also one that the old Savior would never, ever make. Now Savior is massively behind, and Canata can do what he does best: turtle and macro.
Savior actually plays well enough to get to hive off three gas, successfully flanking Canata's first ball. But the early disadvantage proves too much, and Savior cannot hold his gas bases, eventually succumbing to huge numbers of Terran units despite hive tech. For those that watched Savior painfully struggle through his ridiculous hive-rushing post-Bisu/FBH ZvT, this game was like opening an old wound, because it felt exactly like that, even though it wasn't Savior's choice to go low-eco hive rush.
Savior actually plays well enough to get to hive off three gas, successfully flanking Canata's first ball. But the early disadvantage proves too much, and Savior cannot hold his gas bases, eventually succumbing to huge numbers of Terran units despite hive tech. For those that watched Savior painfully struggle through his ridiculous hive-rushing post-Bisu/FBH ZvT, this game was like opening an old wound, because it felt exactly like that, even though it wasn't Savior's choice to go low-eco hive rush.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Gogo 14cc's while Flash opens fac-port and expanding himself. Flash does marginal damage with his wraiths, and gets to dropship earlier due to his fast starport. Gogo breaks Flash's natural and sets up a contain, but fortunately the map is Outsider, so Flash simply lifts and expands out through his back natural, using his dropships to secure better tank positioning at the third main. Both players trade a few bases, but Flash using his superior dropship count to secure a better gas income, eventually clawing his way into the lead. Gogo can't break Flash's gas base at the third main with vulture tank, and taps out. Great game from Flash despite the early disadvantage. His decision making was just always a step ahead of Gogo. Flash has now won his last eight TvTs.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Both players open fac-cc. Canata almost breaks Flash's nat with a quick vulture tank attack, but is pushed back. Both players posture and macro, taking their third and fourth bases. Flash shuts down Canata's third with a drop, saving most of his dropships on the way back. Flash pushes his slight advantage, using his dropships and scans to continually frustrate Canata's attempts at attacking, ferrying units to advantageous positions and trading with Canata while building up a larger army off more bases. Its a slow, methodical destruction, and suddenly Flash has twice the bases and units, and Canata is left sitting is his booth wondering what just hit him.
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Two of the big three (Bisu and Jaedong) already failed to advance to the Ro16 as the top seed in their group, but Flash reverses the trend and delivers. It was scary for him in the Gogo game, but TvT is often very forgiving, allowing the better player to slowly wear his opponent down through hundreds of tiny better plays. For this reason, it's no surprise Flash has the best TvT. Still, Canata has to feel good about his chances. He either gets a TvT (his best matchup) or he plays Savior again. Despite all the 2009 hype, it's a dark time to be a Savior fan. Gogo is no slouch at TvZ (especially mech), so we'll see in a few weeks if the Maestro can pull off another run into the MSL. Now though, it doesn't look good.
Group H
Live Report Thread
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Both players open standard, Much going two gate range expand and Forgg going fac-cc. Forgg stays on one factory and decides to do a 4-rax mm+tank timing attack. Forgg barely misses killing Much's first shuttle+reaver, and moves out with four tanks and two groups of mm. Much seems to have enough zealot goon reaver to flank, but executes it horribly, allowing his reaver to die without firing a shot. Forgg moves into Much's main as slow zealots and goons melt to his mm army. Horrible control by Much.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Pure opens super safe two gate obs before expo, while FBH opens standard FD, attacking with a tank, marines, and rallied vultures with mines. FBH trades his tank and marines for a zealot and a goon and also fails to set up a mine contain due to Pure's fast obs. As a result, Pure is able to pressure FBH's expansion heavily, forcing a bunker and several SCVs to pull and repair. After some insignificant reaver and vulture harass, both players take their third. Pure techs to arbiters and takes a fourth, and his first two stasis get eight tanks, allowing him to easily break FBH's third. FBH eventually holds and slowly takes back his third and another base, but cannot hold them against Pure's next attack. In the meantime Pure has taken two more bases himself and is humming along smoothly off a huge eco and gate count. A recall and another stasis attack seal the victory for Pure.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
+ Show Spoiler [VOD] +
Pure opens 14-nex, and mind reader Forgg blind counters with 2-rax scv rush. When the SCVs and marines arrive, Pure only has two goons and one zealot. Forgg gets a bunker up at Pure's gates but Pure's range upgrade completes, and he uses four dragoons to successfully defend. Anticlimactic ending, but recently that's how Forgg's games tend to go.
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
Group H was routine and boring relative to the other ones, but at least the best player advanced. Pure played solid, capitalizing on his opponents' mistakes. The real question is can he get past the Round of 16? Also, when this group concludes, we'll get to see Much versus FBH. More pylon hearts? I can't wait.
Next Week:
Group A Conclusion
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Winner < Byzantium 3 >
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
Winner < Round of 16 >
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Hiya is the stronger TvT player right now, but Hwasin has a better shot against Luxury and also has wily old MSL veteran experience. There's no way to predict how Luxury will play. He'll show up, split his workers, make mutalisks, and his play will be somewhere between lights-out S-class or horrible B-teamer. Iris awaits in the Round of 16, hoping for TvT.
Group B Conclusion
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
Winner < Heartbreak Ridge >
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
Winner < Round of 16 >
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
There's a 200% chance free does some sort of all-in game one. If Bisu survives that, he'll have to play Jangbi again, and hopefully he'll choose a better strategy than one base 4-gate goon. The winner of that goes on to face Fantasy in the Round of 16, which would be an insanely exciting series.
Group C Conclusion
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
Winner < Carthage 3 >
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Winner < Round of 16 >
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Stork will have problems with Kwanro. Whoever wins that match will probably beat Shine, but then the winner of that has to face Flash in the Round of 16. Stork has the best chance against Flash, but is still a heavy underdog. Personally, I'd like to see Kwanro in a series versus Flash.
Group D Conclusion
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Winner < Heartbreak Ridge >
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
Winner < Round of 16 >
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
No huge names in this group. Skyhigh really screwed himself with that bad decision against Zero, because now he has to play a TvT to stay alive in the MSL, and his TvT isn't that great. The TvZ against Zero (whichever Terran wins) should be fun to watch either way. The second qualifier from this group goes on to face Pure in the Round of 16.
The Korean bracket (not English version yet) has Effort, Iris, Kal, and Fantasy on one side, and Piano, Flash, Kwanro, Calm, and Pure on the other (all of these players qualified first in their groups). Here is one half of the Round of 16, if it was "perfect" aka what the fans probably want:
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
Remember, that's only one half of the bracket. Yes, it's ridiculously loaded. This means an Effort vs Iris and Bisu vs Jaedong quarterfinals, and an Effort vs Bisu or Effort vs Jaedong semifinals. The other side of the bracket is Flash and a bunch of second tier or slumping players, and while I can dream about the possibility of Savior making it through, you can almost pencil Flash into the finals (knock on wood). Who would Flash play? Let's hope for Effort, Jaedong, or Bisu, and we can settle the debate over who is better right now with a best of five.
But as we all know, this is an extremely optimistic projection, because the brackets rarely ever turn out the way the fans want.