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So this game started with just about the worst possible timing for me to be active right away 
I'm not running for office. I don't see anything that stands out to me as a clue in the day 1 post that hasn't already been brought up. Since the focus of day 1 is on the elected roles though, I think it'd be worth analyzing exactly what the benefits of the roles are.
First the facts, which I am re-typing for convenience in reading my post.
Both roles have bodyguard protection. Both roles are immune to rolechecks.
Mayor gets the day 1 lynch and extra voting.
Sheriff gets 2 incarcerations.
Both roles get an intangible trustworthiness benefit, probably.
Okay. Now let's examine what this means for the town: how would it benefit the town to have a non-red elected, and how would it hurt the town to have a red elected? Since both roles are immune to rolechecks, the only way we can determine the alignment of our elected roles is through behavior analysis or clue analysis (assuming the elected is red, of course)
Bodyguard protection is a huge benefit if we get strong, town-aligned players elected--obviously. Keeps one/two great targets safe from the mafia. In addition, the bodyguard protection is not very beneficial to the mafia (it only protects from Vigi hits, and hopefully the whole town would see the Mayor/Sheriff bleeding red).
The immunity to rolechecks is a minus to the town period, since only the town benefits from rolechecks to begin with. Probably a necessary counterbalance to the bodyguard protection though :p
The mayorial day 1 lynch is largely a wash for the town. Only weak clues, no DT information, not as much time for behavior analysis unless someone blows up (see nemY in Mafia VIII). Not likely to be better than having the town vote on a candidate to lynch. It's a slight benefit to the mafia if they get elected Mayor since they have no risk of a day 1 Mafia lynching. It does potentially give the town information on the Mayor's alignment though.
The extra votes from the Mayor seem less important early on and a potentially huge benefit in the endgame if the game is otherwise fairly even. Mafia can win with a couple extra townies alive if a Mafia mayor is still alive--look at last game and mentally put Qatol back in as mayor and take a look at how hopeless townies ever getting a mafia lynched was at the end if you need evidence. Similar help for the town having a towny Mayor.
Incarcerations are iffy. Incarcerating a blue should be a last-ditch effort from a town-aligned Sheriff since it eliminates the benefits of that blue for the night. No DT checks, no medic protection, no Vigi hits that night (protecting a Vigi is, of course, slightly better than protecting a townie should the Vigi not want to hit that night and not have used his hit yet). Incarcerating a Mafia to lower KP is a great deal. Incarcerating a green can be good in certain circumstances (look at the last game Chuiu ran and Fishball's actions on day 4: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=89338¤tpage=69#1362 , or to protect a strong green player with no drawbacks). I think lowering Mafia KP is the best deal here but not necessarily something we'll have a chance to do.
One other thought--incarcerating a suspected Mafia when the number of Mafia is odd. IF that person is Mafia, it will lower KP that night. Medics know when they block hits, and Veterans know when they take a hit. From this we can essentially get extra rolechecks in these circumstances by just adding up the Mafia kills. (Mafia could stack hits, but that's still a win for the town. We don't get proof that the incarcerated is red, but the Mafia gives up an extra KP so it's still a benefit to the town). If we try this, I think it's best for Vigis to stay cool that night and not hit anyone, since a Mafia could try to claim the Vigi hit to keep their incarcerated ally safe. Clue analysis could fix this, but I think it's best to avoid the potential confusion.
For the mafia, the targets to incarcerate are blues that they think will get medic protection, or (probably ideally) incarcerating suspected medics to avoid getting their hits blocked.
My initial thoughts here are that the role of Sheriff is more beneficial to the town and Mayor is more beneficial to the Mafia.
Following from my above discussion of Sheriff and KP, if a medic blocks a hit we have a nearly-confirmed towny since the Mafia cannot hit themselves (not that I'd think they'd want to anyway). Having a confirmed townie to act as a leader is very powerful. Similarly, a Vigi hit can confirm a towny if that Vigi hits Mafia and can prove the clues point to himself.
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I'm going to hold off on voting in the election right now until I get more information, especially considering the subject of my post.
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er, slight problem in my last post.
Now that JeeJee brings it up, the GF is apparently not counted in the 6 mafia
Mafia killing power is:
6-7 mafia = 3 KP 3-5 mafia = 2 KP 1-2 mafia = 1 KP
So we'd have to incarcerate a suspected mafia when 6 or 3 mafia remain to get the "extra rolecheck."
Yay misreading the OP when you skim it!
And I guess Millers count as towny, so that'd be 31 total players.
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Keep in mind we are electing two people here. Even if you think Shikyo is the best candidate that doesn't mean the best move is to vote for him.
To the candidates: I'd like to see you step it up. The town needs to come up with some sort of plan for the future days. If you're serious about the town winning, then regardless of who's voting for you it's in your best interest to help brainstorm ideas for possible scenarios. None of the four candidates have convinced me they're enough of an asset to ensure the bodyguard protection is worth spending on them. Shikyo probably has the best platform, but it's only talking about himself. What about the rest of your town, guys? This game isn't about winning the election; it's about finding and outing the reds.
Here's a start, pulled from my own Mafia experiences in the past and from reading games on this site:
I think getting a confirmed towny is a great situation; it lets us roleclaim to that person (who can then compare with the role counts we know) and organizes a mouth for DTs to speak through to give us their information while leaving the fewest number of town-aligned players exposed. Whoever our confirmed towny is should keep everyone on a need-to-know basis so that we can check inconsistencies better--if a mafia roleclaims DT, for instance....
Having an incarceration available for the confirmed towny is also great. This exact scenario happened in Chuiu's Mafia 5 as I suggested earlier.
The problem is getting a confirmed towny. I see two possible ways which I already talked about. The best is a successful Vigi hit on a mafia if we can strongly connect the clue analysis to the Vigi. The other is getting a blocked medic hit on anyone, in which case the medic can confirm the innocence of the person who was hit.
Hm... This post is obviously unfinished (how can the mafia try to muddle this plan? how can we as a town get around that? what if we don't get a confirmed towny?). I'll leave it this way for now--I have stuff to do--and see what other people can fill in on it/add to it. When I get a chance I'll come back to my thoughts and see if I can think of other plans should we not be able to confirm a towny.
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On May 19 2009 10:42 JeeJee wrote:
Also keep in mind, if a medic successfully protects X, this doesn't say anything about X's innocence. Sure, it's likely that X is a townie-aligned role that was hit by mafia, but it's also possible that it was a mafia hit by a vigi.
If Vigis do PM out their hits when they hit someone then we avoid that possible pitfall, so that sounds good.
The downside is that mafia can try to hide behind a PM wall here by PM'ing different people each night. This removes some suspicion from them and might make the entire game more difficult, particularly if we don't actually get the medic save that we're banking on for this plan to make sense.
I'm not sure what the best answer to this is. Perhaps it might work out best if Vigis just claim their own hits in this thread if this situation arises (Vigi hit blocked by medic)? We can lynch the player claiming Vigi that night to confirm his role.... We lose a lynch and a town-aligned player but it saves the plan, and this situation shouldn't happen in the first place so maybe this is ok. On the other hand, if it does arise, we're left pretty screwed in my analysis (town loses an entire lynch and a Vigi for essentially nothing; we can't afford to throw that away if the mafia plays well).
Both plans have merits, I think. I'm leaning toward the second since it makes the game easier if we don't get a medic save leading to a confirmed towny. The penalty for blocking a Vigi hit is giant but the chance of that happening should be small.
Leaving aside that situation for now--we only need a solution for Night 2 anyway since Vigis can't hit Night 1--let's assume we get a medic blocking a non-Vigi hit. Here's my proposed plan, with events in order (important!):
Player A takes a hit, protected by Medic B.
A claims the hit publicly.
We figure out it's not a Vigi hit (however we plan to do that)
B confirms the save.
Sheriff incarcerates A (we need to protect him for the night)
Now the town has to confirm B's role. I suggest lynching B to do that since it's quick and time is of the essence. We lose a medic and a lynch but we confirm A's innocence and get our mouth. My guess is this is worth it.
(In this scenario, A will only speak up if he is towny and did take a hit or if he is mafia. If A is mafia, B will only speak up if he is also mafia. If B flips red, we lynch A the day after).
We do for sure want B to speak up only after we confirm the hit was not a Vigi hit--otherwise, if it does end up being a Vigi hit, we've just had a medic roleclaim to the mafia and that's not good. I don't see any benefits to having B speak up before we determine it's not a Vigi hit that got blocked.
Hm.
One other thing I thought of: what if multiple players claim to have saved A? Either all of those players claiming to have saved are mafia and A is also mafia (way to throw the game, reds!), or A is town, one of the players claiming medic is a medic, and the rest are mafia. In this case, I guess we lynch all the players claiming to have saved A. Sheriff does not incarcerate A, and we probably end up losing A (to a mafia hit ... unless medics save him again?) and a medic (to being lynched), but we do lynch at least one mafia. Still looks good to me on paper.
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I don't want to take the focus too much off the election, by the way--the election is important. I'm trying mainly to spark discussion from the candidates (and the rest of the players--more talk usually only helps the town) to let the useful ones show the town they're useful and to give us more information about all of them regardless.
If I post in this topic again tonight it'll be right before I go to bed, but I might not post any more tonight. In the morning I will cast my initial vote in the election. If I were to vote right now I would vote either JeeJee or Jimtudor.
As I looked at the topic just before posting I notice that Zeks has posted his candidacy. I haven't had time to read it much, so no comments on it from me yet.
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One other quick comment (brought up by iLoveKTF): a medic protection list might make sense; I'm assuming here that the mafia as a whole is better at determining who the dangerous players in the game are than individual medics are. Couple this with the inactivity we've seen from a lot of players so far and we'll be able to at least lessen the chance of our admittedly few good contributors biting the dust right away. We have three medics, so somewhere around six players seems the right number to put on a potential list: few enough that the players on the list get some protection that the mafia has to take into account, but not so few that the mafia will just ignore the list entirely and hit only players not on the list.
If people start coming out of the woodwork tomorrow this might change. I'll think about who should go on the list tomorrow, and if we agree that the list is a good idea then I'll post my ideas.
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Shikyo wrote:
About multiple people claiming to have saved A, we don't necessarily have to kill all those people.
Yes, we do. Read my posts again. Same reason that if a Vigi claims a hit we have to lynch the Vigi afterward if we want to believe him.
Pawsom wrote:
Just a thought, if we get a succesful towny identification through a medic save, could the medic saving him go ahead and role claim, and then call for another medic to protect him, while he continues to protect the player he saved?
No. We need to confirm the role of the medic, so we have to lynch the medic.
In general public roleclaiming is not helpful for the town since we gain nothing from it until we confirm whether you're being truthful. The only surefire way to do that (unless we have a confirmed towny ... and in this case public roleclaiming is just giving the mafia extra information we don't want them to have anyway) is to have the player roleclaiming die. The mafia, on the other hand, benefit from public roleclaiming immediately.
Anyway I think for the remainder of the day we should focus on the candidates. Whoever gets elected can start planning tonight in case we end up with a successful save.
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I like JeeJee's post giving advice. Nothing in it (I skimmed most of it, admittedly) seems off-base to me. I'm trusting on his experience and his activity and going to vote for him. His advice for the mafia is particularly strong and I advise all the reds to follow it 
One thing I would add--DO NOT ROLECLAIM TO ANYONE unless you have a very good reason for doing so. Most especially, do not just roleclaim to an elected role because they got elected. This very much includes the bodyguards--see what happened on night 1 in Mafia VIII for why.
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On May 20 2009 05:46 teks wrote:Really? If the Vigi hits a red we know it's a vigi hit, and if he told 3-4 people via PM before he did the hit they can confirm his story. We would have a confirmed townie then.
I wasn't talking about the scenario you are talking about here at all.
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Lynching Jimtudor so quickly seems a bad idea to me. If he's not red, we lose an active towny who's definitely contributing. Sure, if he is red, we win by lynching him--but if he stays active we'll get a better feel for him; if he goes inactive, that's putting up a big suspicious flag too.
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I said last night I'd give input on a medic list. Here are my choices
iLoveKTF
vx70GTOJudgexv
Zeks
Jimtudor
...and me (take this as you will)
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It's not possible to double lynch on day 2 -_-
Killing 2 mafia by the end of day 2 requires a vigi hit at this point. Unlikely, but possible.
If we vote for double lynch on day 2, we get it on day 3.
I don't see any point discussing it just yet since we clearly don't have much information. We definitely want to use both of them, but whether we should use the first on day 3 or on day 4 I'm not sure. Waiting longer than that seems suicidal though.
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I'm hoping Jimtudor wasn't stupid enough to PM his Bodyguard role to either JeeJee or Shikyo (other BG don't you be stupid either); my guess is the mafia just wanted to get rid of him based on his day 1 posts and they got lucky when he flipped blue. Seems curious to me that they would go after him so quickly if we were going to check up on him anyway, but then he was on the medic lists for a reason.
Only two kills is excellent though regardless.
I don't have the time to look through the posts too much right now, but I'll probably try my hand at clue analysis when I can since we don't have much behavior to go on from half the town and we need to start the mafia bleeding ASAP.
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Also, since there are so many inactives/people who haven't contributed much, my hunch is that most of the mafia are hiding amongst those players.
If you're green or blue and have been quiet so far I suggest you start speaking up. Nothing to be nervous about as long as you have nothing to hide
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@zeks:
c) Our 1 Veteran got hit
Other possibility, looks about as likely as a save to me.
Do we want the potential player who took the third hit (assuming there was a save or the Vet got hit) to speak up?
Will look around for clues before I go to bed, I promise. I just had to watch the other game play out for a bit though.
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I went through both days posts. Forgive me if I repeat phrases here from day 1; I only skimmed the analysis people had already done.
From day 1:
red feathers/gray cardinal
likely a reference to Pyrrhuloxia himself since a Pyrrhuloxia is a type of cardinal and the picture on Wikipedia fits
eerily crepuscular
Already been mentioned as a likely clue.
Possible links:
chaoser--Pokemon quote, some Pokemon are crepuscular (and you might call ninjas crepuscular as well)
Pawsome--empty profile, some crepuscular animals have paws
Jayme--fucking huge cat picture
teks (weak) -- Darkwing Duck pic at night
sixth [floor ledge]
Possibly not a clue.
Only link I can find is clazziquai, and that's simply him being #6 on the list of players.
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. [bAs he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. [/b]
Suggesting something very fast
Possible links:
chaoser--ninja reference in his profile (sneaking across a whole archery range? maybe a ninja could do it)
sugiuramidor--"run and run" in profile
teks (weak) -- Darkwing Duck
JeeJee--Franz Stampfl (athletics connection)
If this is a clue I'm pinning it on chaoser above the rest.
the shattering windshield
My question is how it shattered. It shattering inward is not that strange ... except that we're not given any hint of something hitting it from outside.
My first thought was to check icons for ghosts in particular (psychic powers?). No luck. Maybe links to bleeding to death? (Strange that LTT would bleed out so quickly too imo) Couldn't find those either.
I do have in my profile a quote about cars (did anyone catch this day 1?). I'm not red though :p
Possible links:
crate--the car
phelix (weak) -- "spray and pray"--possibly windshield shattered by a bullet? Not likely correct.
Day 2:
Jimtudor had no hard feelings about the election. With love for his town in his heart, he prepared to defend the people chosen to lead in this time of crisis. His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died.
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life.
love for his town in his heart
Possible links:
iLoveKTF -- possibly too easy to link
Ra.Xor.2 -- google the quote in his profile, find the book it's from: A Return to Love
flashy tie
Possible links:
clazziquai (somewhat weak)--google his name, go to images. You do get a pic of a guy with a tie. Also the band has an album called "Color Your Soul" and could be color = flashy
swiftly jammed a metal bar
Might be a red herring. Can't find any links
hid in the bushes
Possible links:
chaoser (weak) -- quote from Rekrul in his profile, and of course Rekrul => Lurker
bolt toward the park's exit
Key here is the use of the word "bolt"
Possible links:
bwdero -- look at that picture!
Might not be a clue though
whipped forcefully in the back
Possible links:
wurm (weak) -- towel ... but I don't think "whipped forcefully" matches with a towel too well
stomps to the back of the neck
Possible links:
epicdoom -- neck = sexy?
I have tried here to link clues to people instead of people to clues. I used iLoveKTF's topic for profiles since it's so much easier that way.
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I am not going to comment on who I think we should vote out just yet.... Inactivity is, like I said, a big red flag for me right now.
Also I apologize for my veritable eyesore of a post above.
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On May 21 2009 14:57 Phelix wrote:
Possibility of a Veteran being hit is unlikely, since Pyrr would post who would got hit.
Where do you pull this from? The rules do not say that at all. The veteran himself would be notified but I don't think there would be a public announcement of the hit.
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lol I guess #1 Flash Fan (gj me missing that) could link to "flashy tie" though I think that's too obvious to be a real clue
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I know Koopie outside of TL (I told her to come sign up for the game).
Originally her profile was blank (as you can see in iLoveKTF's profile compilation).
I don't think it's out of an effort to cheat.
Anyone who wants to make me look suspicious, have a field day since I realize this post is probably a mistake but I'm making it anyway.
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Guess I might as well not really hide this (yay another mistake post; have fun, mafia!)
I will be very, very surprised if Koopie flips red. Trust me for now, I will have a defense tomorrow. I've been talking to her on MSN a lot.
I have some other names I'm looking at harder than Koopie and I will post those sometime tomorrow as well. The timing right now is bad for me to discuss them since I'll be going to sleep right after this post. Rest assured you'll see stuff from me tomorrow.
Look through the thread, see who's been stupid or the like, write down those names. Look through the clues, see who you match up to them (and what clue analysis from others you buy). If you get the same names from both methods start thinking hard about those people.
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EPT
