|
United States33493 Posts
Credit to Elky for the theory and Naz for the odds. Thanks to 4.aiur and explosive for pointing out stuff I missed.
Nada played Yellow on OGN today and lost. Nada played very strange, so poor that you might think that Nada gave Yellow a free win. Nada and Yellow are on the same team KTF, for those of you who don't know!
Anyway, here was the situation in Group C before the game.
Nal_rA: 2-0 (defeated yellow and chojja)
Nada: 1-0 (defeated Chojja)
Yellow: 0-1 (lost to nal_ra)
Chojja 0-2 (lost to nada and nal_ra)
If Yellow had lost to Nada, Nada would have gotten into the second round without a doubt. However, Yellow would have been eliminated.
KTF's optimal scenario is both their players going to the next round. The situation after the game!
Nal_rA: 2-0 (defeated yellow and chojja)
Nada: 1-1 (defeated Chojja, lost to Yellow)
Yellow: 1-1 (defeated Nada, lost to nal_ra)
Chojja 0-2 (lost to nada and nal_ra)
Two players qualify for the next round. The only way both Nada and Yellow to go on is for Nada to defeat Nal_rA, while Yellow beats Chojja. Then ra, nada, and yellow will be tied on top at 2-1. A series of tie-breakers will be played, where the format is each of the 3 players playing a game a piece against each other. The top two players would go on to the next round.
To manage that, both nada and yellow would have to defeat Nal_ra, making him 0-2. Then Nada and Yellow would be 1st and 2nd by default, regardless of which player is 2-0 and which player is 1-1.
If the two KTF players played last, they could force another tie (and another tiebreaker) in the case that one of them defeated Nal_ra and the other failed to (nal_ra 1-1, KTF players 0-1 and 1-0).
Anyway, it would be hard to achieve that scenario. Nada > Nal_ra, then Yellow > Chojja for atie, then nada > nal_ra and yellow > nal_ra in the tiebreakers. But at worst, at least one of the KTF players would enter the next round if they manage to get a tie.
As for the other cases! Nada plays nal_ra next week. If he wins as KTF wants, but Yellow loses to Chojja the week after, they still get at least nada in the next round.
If Nada loses to nal_ra next week, and Yellow defeats Chojja, then Yellow would be in the next round. It's fine for KTF since one of their players qualifies. It's also possible that the original plan was for Nada to throw the game with Yellow to give them both a chance to qualify. In the case Nada was in danger of being eliminated, Yellow would kindly throw a game for him in return. So if Nada lost to rA, Yellow might lose vs Chojja as well to force the below scenario.
If Nada loses to ra next week, and Yellow loses to Chojja the week after, we get a 3 way tie again. But this time, it would be at the bottom, at 1-2. In the case of a 3 way tie at the bottom, KTF's chances at getting at least one player in are good, even without free wins. Chojja would have to pull 2-0 vs both players, which would be very hard. In the case Chojja goes 0-2, KTF even gets to pick which player they want in the next round (who will take the fall).
So instead of one assured slot in the next round, KTF might be going for the small chance that both of their players could make the next round. And in case they fail at that scenario, the chance that at least one of them will go to the next round is still quite good!
Ok, nitpick and perhaps someone who has too much time calculate exact odds ^_^.
|
Hey I already posted this 
(Well, at least the possible scenarios hehe)
|
Heh. I would probobly do that if my teammate and me would go on to the next round. 
|
United States33493 Posts
no rule that says "you must do your best" :O
|
Nada also sucked vs Nal_Ra earlier in that whatever league that was. The result for that was "also" decided before the game?
|
It would be funny if Nada really lost in purpose; and then Ra > Nada and Yellow > Chojja. Nada would be 3rd with no tie and would get mad 
|
United States33493 Posts
if nada lost on purpose, it was for the good of the entire team. The chance that both he and Yellow will get in is very small. If he lost to yellow, he's accepting that he might not qualify but Yellow will in his place
|
if this is true, then nada is an very mannered guy :O.
|
Well lemme tell you this - now that Nada lost to Yellow, just the way KTF "made a way for their both players to proceed to the next stage", even though the odds you're talking about (nada beating ra, yellow beating chojja, then both of them beating ra) are quite unlikely, they also risked even ONE of them going to the next stage - and this is just as theoretical:
if Nada loses to nal_ra, as many people believe he would, Chojja would be able to go to the next stage if he beats yellow (not such an impossible task -_-) and then Yellow\Nada\Chojja would be tied with 1\3, and would play a series of tiebreaks, in which Chojja might win and then go to the next stage with Nal_rA.
|
lol i didnt read the article all the way thru sorry ~
|
United States33493 Posts
On August 22 2003 18:59 Cresfy wrote:
Well lemme tell you this - now that Nada lost to Yellow, just the way KTF "made a way for their both players to proceed to the next stage", even though the odds you're talking about (nada beating ra, yellow beating chojja, then both of them beating ra) are quite unlikely, they also risked even ONE of them going to the next stage - and this is just as theoretical:
if Nada loses to nal_ra, as many people believe he would, Chojja would be able to go to the next stage if he beats yellow (not such an impossible task -_-) and then Yellow\Nada\Chojja would be tied with 1\3, and would play a series of tiebreaks, in which Chojja might win and then go to the next stage with Nal_rA.
covered the tie at the bottom :O. Said KTF has a very good chance at sending at least of their players. That's as unlikely as both nada and yellow going on.
|
Dealer
Sweden1368 Posts
"risking"
The odds that Chojja would beat Yellow twice and Nada once in a row is FAR more unlikely than that yellow > chojja, nada > nalra, yellow > nalra, nada > nalra =]
|
On August 22 2003 18:48 NpG)Explosive wrote: It would be funny if Nada really lost in purpose; and then Ra > Nada and Yellow > Chojja. Nada would be 3rd with no tie and would get mad In exchange for "throwing" this game, perhaps Yellow agrees to throw the match to Chojja if rA beats Nada. That way Nada cannot be eliminated. The favor is returned and both of them would still be alive for a tiebreaker for the last spot.
This actually all makes sense to me. I'm almost convinced that it's true. I'm turning into a KTF hater.
|
United States33493 Posts
haha I should post this on some korean site^_^
|
Well, Chojja is in SouL...I don't think he'd get in on all this scheming business. He's probably pissed about losing twice and would like to salvage at least a little bit of self confidence...
|
United States33493 Posts
On August 22 2003 19:21 GundamVX wrote:
Well, Chojja is in SouL...I don't think he'd get in on all this scheming business. He's probably pissed about losing twice and would like to salvage at least a little bit of self confidence...
never said he was involved :O
|
On August 22 2003 19:10 4.Aiur wrote: Show nested quote +On August 22 2003 18:48 NpG)Explosive wrote: It would be funny if Nada really lost in purpose; and then Ra > Nada and Yellow > Chojja. Nada would be 3rd with no tie and would get mad In exchange for "throwing" this game, perhaps Yellow agrees to throw the match to Chojja if rA beats Nada. That way Nada cannot be eliminated. The favor is returned and both of them would still be alive for a tiebreaker for the last spot. This actually all makes sense to me. I'm almost convinced that it's true. I'm turning into a KTF hater.
Agree witht the whole thing.
On a side note I don't think Nada has much of a chance vs Nal_Ra. Nal_Ra is just kicking so much ass, and it's Paradoxxx.
|
u left out the government conspiracy part wax ;p. This sort of shenadigans has happened in formula 1 b4 so y not BW i ask!
:7
|
ejai63
United States2101 Posts
did nada really play that poorly??
|
Sweden33719 Posts
No~ He wasn't playing good but yellow could just as well have died when he broke down the sunks AND float *edit* facted :0
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
