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[Aligulac June 12 list] Your ratings are Bogus!!!!

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-13 08:01:33
June 12 2013 22:09 GMT
#1
Specific feedback and feature requests should go here: Aligulac.com changelog and feedback thread

We have a FAQ here. FAQ means Frequently Asked Questions. Odds are your Question is Frequently Asked.
Visit us aligulac.com


This week I will bring you the write-up, courtesy of TheBB being busy with that PhD of his and my 3 month holiday. However TheBB did bring some of his mathmagics and changed the entire rating system. The new system has 3 overall changes:

  1. No more fake games. Previously if someone went, say, 10-0, we added a fake win and loss to make the score 11-1, so that the performance rating would not be infinite. TheBB changed the algorithm to not depend on performance ratings, so now this isn't needed. This is a technical detail unlikely to make a big impact. You can expect ratings of the infrequently playing players to adjust a bit quicker.

  2. Offline games are weighted heavier. This means they are considered more indicative of a player's skill, and it does NOT imply that people who play mostly offline will be rated higher. (It means that people who WIN more offline than online will be rated higher.) This has sped up the Korean ratings, since they now play almost twice as many "games" as before. So KeSPA players have caught up a bit.

  3. Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.


This also means that the point gains in this write-up can not be directly compared with the points from last write-up, as this change also influences all earlier lists.

Now before we get into this, remember that a difference of around 250 or less means that there is no statistically significant difference between two players, but who am I kidding, you just want to rage and yell at our stats, so here we go.

The list:
  1. kr INnoVation 2008 (+8: Proleague, WCS Final, MLG Qualifiers)
  2. kr Life 1954 (No change)
  3. kr Mvp 1927 (+17: WCS Final)
  4. kr Flash 1878 (+18: Proleague)
  5. kr viOLet 1859 (+14: WCS AM, )
  6. kr sOs 1852 (+54: Proleague, WCS Final)
  7. kr Leenock 1851 (-14: HSC Qualifiers)
  8. kr Polt 1838 (-42: SEANA, Gigabyte, RSL, HSC Qualifiers, go4sc2, ZOTAC)
  9. kr Rain 1819 (-30: Proleague, MLG Qualifiers, )
  10. kr Curious 1803 (+121: WCS, Numericable Cup)


Honorable mentions: ForGG, LucifroN, Yonghwa, Squirtle, Soulkey, PartinG

With this new rating change, many of the top Kespa pros are now significantly better ranked, and especially INnoVation on #1 and sOs and Flash have benefitted from this change. Soulkey is probably the best player not currently in top 10, although with less than 10 points fewer than Curious, it is mostly just coincidental and as previously mentioned, doesn't mean that Soulkey is actually worse than Curious. Life has been inactive for 2 periods now (4 weeks). However with Dreamhack approaching, it will be interesting to see if the young Startale ace can't farm some of those juicy foreigner points. :-D

Moving on to our heroes from the mythical lands known as "Not Korea".

The foreigner list:
  1. es LucifroN 1796 (-2: ATC, RSL gNations, EMS)
  2. tw Sen 1761 (+23: TESL)
  3. [image loading] Happy 1649 (+52: EnerJ, HSC Qualifiers, EMS)
  4. ca Scarlett 1642 (+10: ATC)
  5. es VortiX 1619 (-1: ATC)
  6. cn Jim 1599 (+31: Kungfu Cup, RSL)
  7. dk Bunny 1594 (+61: HSC Qualifiers, WCS EU, DMSL)
  8. no Snute 1593 (-15: ATC, WCS AM, Gigabyte)
  9. ua Kas 1574 (-18: WCS EU, ESET Qualifiers, Gigabyte)
  10. fr Stephano 1563 (-20: WCS Final)
(Russian flag is still bugged. У вас слишком много времени, если вы переводите это!)
(There was a deletion of a match from Kas' history which was a walkover, which had cost him quite some points, so now he is 9th )

Honorable mentions: Welmu, NaNiwa, Nerchio, Socke, Hasuobs, TLO

LucifroN is still regarded by us as the best foreigner, with Sen taking 2nd (not 3rd) place. The foreign scene is still a good bit behind the Korean in points, and LucifroN barely didn't made it into the overall top 10. The list is a good mix of the best the foreign scene has to offer, especially if you also count the honorable mentions.

Balance report
With the end of May, our monthly balance report was also calculated.
TvZ: 54.4%
PvZ: 49.6 %
PvT: 47 %
The above numbers indicate a slight terran dominance, albeit with such a small difference, nothing can be said for certain and the difference doesn't significantly show that T>Z>P.

Before ending this with some shoutouts, I want to remind everyone, especially those asking for predictions on groups/matches/brackets on twitter that we have a predict feature which isn't that hard to use. We also have a really nice search function that can show head-to-head records, finally each player have a match history complete with filters for: Time, Opponents race, nationality, format, on/offline and game version.

Shoutouts this week to MasterOfPuppets and Shellshock who have worked hard on adding a lot of matches these last two weeks, aiding kiekaboe so he also has time to actually do other stuff. Shoutout to our new programmer xaviermarchegay who has contributed a lot already and is working on some functions to make the site more friendly to casters. As always we appreciate all the good suggestions and the nice feedback provided by this community and we hope to keep improving both the site and the overall rankings.

If you want to get in contact with us or have suggestion feel free to use:
  • This thread.
  • Twitter @Sc2Aligulac.
  • PM. Me or TheBB.
  • IRC: #aligulac on quakenet.
  • E-mail to evfonn(at)gmail(dot)com.
  • Issue list on GitHub.
  • Pilgrimage to Zürich. TheBB will find you.


We will as always answer questions regarding the write-up in this thread. See you in two weeks.

+ Show Spoiler [Random aligulac trivia] +

  • Our member Sabre used to be a trackmania star and even has a few youtube compilation videos.

  • Despite having used IRC for a few months, Grovbolle still have a less than 10% "Don't press enter because it fucks up the twitter bots in #Liquipedia formatting" hitrate.
  • If you say #ForGGeddon three times while staring into a mirror, ForGG appears behind you, dressed like Biggie Smalls.
  • Our FAQ includes a "How to pronounce aligulac".
  • MasterOfPuppets biggest wish is for someone to invent a "Punch people via the internet" application.


+ Show Spoiler [The foreigner list by popular demand] +
On May 16 2013 23:42 StarVe wrote:
The real foreigner list, by popular demand.

  1. de TLO
  2. se Naniwa
  3. ca Scarlett
  4. nl Grubby
  5. ca HuK
  6. ua White-Ra
  7. se ThorZaIN
  8. uk Demuslim
  9. us IdrA
  10. de TLO
  11. kr Dragon


Trust me, guys, it's totally based on some numbers.

Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
_SpiRaL_
Profile Joined December 2012
Afghanistan1636 Posts
June 12 2013 22:16 GMT
#2
Not sure about the Korean adjustment factor. Seems a little bit too much of a fudge.
Red and yellow are all I see
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
June 12 2013 22:18 GMT
#3
Just amazing work as always. Bears repeating!
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
marvellosity
Profile Joined January 2011
United Kingdom36161 Posts
June 12 2013 22:19 GMT
#4
On June 13 2013 07:16 _SpiRaL_ wrote:
Not sure about the Korean adjustment factor. Seems a little bit too much of a fudge.


If they're not worth their boost, they'll soon trend downwards back towards where they're supposed to be.
[15:15] <Palmar> and yes marv, you're a total hottie
iMrising
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
United States1099 Posts
June 12 2013 22:21 GMT
#5
yay! love aligulac
good work!
$O$ | soO
J.E.G.
Profile Joined May 2010
United States389 Posts
June 12 2013 22:31 GMT
#6
So if <250 indicates no statistical difference, is that to imply there is no statistical difference between any of the top ten players on each respective list? This seems kind of pointless?
Do or do not; there is no try.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
June 12 2013 22:35 GMT
#7
On June 13 2013 07:31 J.E.G. wrote:
So if <250 indicates no statistical difference, is that to imply there is no statistical difference between any of the top ten players on each respective list? This seems kind of pointless?

Basically yes.

You can't for sure say that anyone is better than anyone else in general unless there is a >250 difference approximately.
This is of course only if you do a statistical test on it.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
bduddy
Profile Joined May 2012
United States1326 Posts
June 12 2013 22:39 GMT
#8
I don't really like either fudge factor, especially the offline one. Yes, we may attribute more prestige to offline games, but a rating system shouldn't have anything to do with that... that's not that far from weighting by tournament prestige...
>Liquid'Nazgul: Of course you are completely right
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
June 12 2013 22:40 GMT
#9
On June 13 2013 07:39 bduddy wrote:
I don't really like either fudge factor, especially the offline one. Yes, we may attribute more prestige to offline games, but a rating system shouldn't have anything to do with that... that's not that far from weighting by tournament prestige...

Please recall that we do test this versus the predictabillity of the overall model
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
rift
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
1819 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-12 22:56:41
June 12 2013 22:55 GMT
#10
i do hope kespa players get the rep they deserve, seeing as they kick one another's asses (read: highest level of competition) rather than milk wins from foreigners
Hondelul
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
1999 Posts
June 12 2013 22:56 GMT
#11
I think green for Welmu is "bugged" because you forgot the closed green from Flash. Since Welmu is the last in the list it´s passed over until him. Thanks for the stats always ^^

[*] kr :T: [url=http://aligulac.com/players/55-Flash/]Flash[/url] 1878 [small]([green]+18: Proleague)[/small]
[*] kr :Z: [url=http://aligulac.com/players/8-viOLet/]viOLet[/url] 1859 [small]([green]+14: WCS AM, [/green])[/small]
Serimek
Profile Joined August 2011
France2274 Posts
June 12 2013 23:04 GMT
#12
Not only aligulac is an awesome site, but I always enjoy the humour and spirit you put in your thread

(Poor SeleCT btw :p )
SC2 is the best game to watch and was the best to play before I grew old and slow...
Gladiator6
Profile Joined June 2010
Sweden7024 Posts
June 12 2013 23:05 GMT
#13
I really like the top 10 of both Koreans and foreigners now, feels extremely accurate. At least in my books.
Flying, sOs, free, Light, Soulkey & ZerO
Badfatpanda
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States9719 Posts
June 12 2013 23:06 GMT
#14
This list is fucking bogus.

+ Show Spoiler +
Wouldn't have it any other way.
Music is a higher revelation than all wisdom and philosophy. -Beethoven | Mech isn't a build, it's a way of life. -MajOr | Charlie.Sheen: "What is sarcastic, kids who have no courage to fight?" | #TerranPride #yolo #swag -Naama after 2-0'ing MC at HSC VI
Emzeeshady
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Canada4203 Posts
June 12 2013 23:07 GMT
#15
--- Nuked ---
Flossy
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States870 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-06-12 23:11:56
June 12 2013 23:08 GMT
#16
I want to try that ForGGedon thing
I am kinda scared though
etternaonline.com
Emzeeshady
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Canada4203 Posts
June 12 2013 23:08 GMT
#17
--- Nuked ---
Fenneth
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
Australia354 Posts
June 12 2013 23:09 GMT
#18
The changes have made a really positive impact, I believe that list is much closer to accurate than it ever has been.

There are still some anomalies (I wish older results depreciated faster, Violet is a great player but hasn't shown a lot in HotS yet) but it's pretty good.
Serimek
Profile Joined August 2011
France2274 Posts
June 12 2013 23:09 GMT
#19
Who's flashpoint at 84th rank ?_?
SC2 is the best game to watch and was the best to play before I grew old and slow...
Hellbat
Profile Joined June 2013
223 Posts
June 12 2013 23:12 GMT
#20
Wow, 54% TvZ and 47% PvT. I would have thought PvT would have been 50/50. Not too surprised by the TvZ win rate, considering Terrans love dropping me into a base and I'm always expected to get damage done pretty easily.
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