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Specific feedback and feature requests should go here: Aligulac.com changelog and feedback thread
We have a FAQ here. FAQ means Frequently Asked Questions. Odds are your Question is Frequently Asked.
Visit us aligulac.com
This week I will bring you the write-up, courtesy of TheBB being busy with that PhD of his and my 3 month holiday. However TheBB did bring some of his mathmagics and changed the entire rating system. The new system has 3 overall changes:
- No more fake games. Previously if someone went, say, 10-0, we added a fake win and loss to make the score 11-1, so that the performance rating would not be infinite. TheBB changed the algorithm to not depend on performance ratings, so now this isn't needed. This is a technical detail unlikely to make a big impact. You can expect ratings of the infrequently playing players to adjust a bit quicker.
- Offline games are weighted heavier. This means they are considered more indicative of a player's skill, and it does NOT imply that people who play mostly offline will be rated higher. (It means that people who WIN more offline than online will be rated higher.) This has sped up the Korean ratings, since they now play almost twice as many "games" as before. So KeSPA players have caught up a bit.
- Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
This also means that the point gains in this write-up can not be directly compared with the points from last write-up, as this change also influences all earlier lists.
Now before we get into this, remember that a difference of around 250 or less means that there is no statistically significant difference between two players, but who am I kidding, you just want to rage and yell at our stats, so here we go.
The list:
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  INnoVation 2008 (+8: Proleague, WCS Final, MLG Qualifiers)
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 Life 1954 (No change)
- Mvp 1927 (+17: WCS Final)
- Flash 1878 (+18: Proleague)
- viOLet 1859 (+14: WCS AM, )
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 sOs 1852 (+54: Proleague, WCS Final)
- Leenock 1851 (-14: HSC Qualifiers)
- Polt 1838 (-42: SEANA, Gigabyte, RSL, HSC Qualifiers, go4sc2, ZOTAC)
- Rain 1819 (-30: Proleague, MLG Qualifiers, )
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 Curious 1803 (+121: WCS, Numericable Cup)
Honorable mentions: ForGG, LucifroN, Yonghwa, Squirtle, Soulkey, PartinG
With this new rating change, many of the top Kespa pros are now significantly better ranked, and especially INnoVation on #1 and sOs and Flash have benefitted from this change. Soulkey is probably the best player not currently in top 10, although with less than 10 points fewer than Curious, it is mostly just coincidental and as previously mentioned, doesn't mean that Soulkey is actually worse than Curious. Life has been inactive for 2 periods now (4 weeks). However with Dreamhack approaching, it will be interesting to see if the young Startale ace can't farm some of those juicy foreigner points. :-D
Moving on to our heroes from the mythical lands known as "Not Korea".
The foreigner list:
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 LucifroN 1796 (-2: ATC, RSL gNations, EMS)
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 Sen 1761 (+23: TESL)
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![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/images/flags2/ru.png) Happy 1649 (+52: EnerJ, HSC Qualifiers, EMS)
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 Scarlett 1642 (+10: ATC)
- VortiX 1619 (-1: ATC)
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 Jim 1599 (+31: Kungfu Cup, RSL)
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 Bunny 1594 (+61: HSC Qualifiers, WCS EU, DMSL)
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 Snute 1593 (-15: ATC, WCS AM, Gigabyte)
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 Kas 1574 (-18: WCS EU, ESET Qualifiers, Gigabyte)
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 Stephano 1563 (-20: WCS Final)
(Russian flag is still bugged. У вас слишком много времени, если вы переводите это!)
(There was a deletion of a match from Kas' history which was a walkover, which had cost him quite some points, so now he is 9th  )
Honorable mentions: Welmu, NaNiwa, Nerchio, Socke, Hasuobs, TLO
LucifroN is still regarded by us as the best foreigner, with Sen taking 2nd (not 3rd) place. The foreign scene is still a good bit behind the Korean in points, and LucifroN barely didn't made it into the overall top 10. The list is a good mix of the best the foreign scene has to offer, especially if you also count the honorable mentions.
Balance report
With the end of May, our monthly balance report was also calculated.
TvZ: 54.4%
PvZ: 49.6 %
PvT: 47 %
The above numbers indicate a slight terran dominance, albeit with such a small difference, nothing can be said for certain and the difference doesn't significantly show that T>Z>P.
Before ending this with some shoutouts, I want to remind everyone, especially those asking for predictions on groups/matches/brackets on twitter that we have a predict feature which isn't that hard to use. We also have a really nice search function that can show head-to-head records, finally each player have a match history complete with filters for: Time, Opponents race, nationality, format, on/offline and game version.
Shoutouts this week to MasterOfPuppets and Shellshock who have worked hard on adding a lot of matches these last two weeks, aiding kiekaboe so he also has time to actually do other stuff. Shoutout to our new programmer xaviermarchegay who has contributed a lot already and is working on some functions to make the site more friendly to casters. As always we appreciate all the good suggestions and the nice feedback provided by this community and we hope to keep improving both the site and the overall rankings.
If you want to get in contact with us or have suggestion feel free to use:
- This thread.
- Twitter @Sc2Aligulac.
- PM. Me or TheBB.
- IRC: #aligulac on quakenet.
- E-mail to evfonn(at)gmail(dot)com.
- Issue list on GitHub.
- Pilgrimage to Zürich. TheBB will find you.
We will as always answer questions regarding the write-up in this thread. See you in two weeks.
+ Show Spoiler [Random aligulac trivia] +- Our member Sabre used to be a trackmania star and even has a few youtube compilation videos.
- Despite having used IRC for a few months, Grovbolle still have a less than 10% "Don't press enter because it fucks up the twitter bots in #Liquipedia formatting" hitrate.
- If you say #ForGGeddon three times while staring into a mirror, ForGG appears behind you, dressed like Biggie Smalls.
- Our FAQ includes a "How to pronounce aligulac".
- MasterOfPuppets biggest wish is for someone to invent a "Punch people via the internet" application.
+ Show Spoiler [The foreigner list by popular demand] +
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Not sure about the Korean adjustment factor. Seems a little bit too much of a fudge.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Just amazing work as always. Bears repeating!
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On June 13 2013 07:16 _SpiRaL_ wrote:
Not sure about the Korean adjustment factor. Seems a little bit too much of a fudge.
If they're not worth their boost, they'll soon trend downwards back towards where they're supposed to be.
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yay! love aligulac
good work!
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So if <250 indicates no statistical difference, is that to imply there is no statistical difference between any of the top ten players on each respective list? This seems kind of pointless?
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On June 13 2013 07:31 J.E.G. wrote:
So if <250 indicates no statistical difference, is that to imply there is no statistical difference between any of the top ten players on each respective list? This seems kind of pointless?
Basically yes.
You can't for sure say that anyone is better than anyone else in general unless there is a >250 difference approximately.
This is of course only if you do a statistical test on it.
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I don't really like either fudge factor, especially the offline one. Yes, we may attribute more prestige to offline games, but a rating system shouldn't have anything to do with that... that's not that far from weighting by tournament prestige...
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On June 13 2013 07:39 bduddy wrote:
I don't really like either fudge factor, especially the offline one. Yes, we may attribute more prestige to offline games, but a rating system shouldn't have anything to do with that... that's not that far from weighting by tournament prestige...
Please recall that we do test this versus the predictabillity of the overall model
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i do hope kespa players get the rep they deserve, seeing as they kick one another's asses (read: highest level of competition) rather than milk wins from foreigners
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I think green for Welmu is "bugged" because you forgot the closed green from Flash. Since Welmu is the last in the list it´s passed over until him. Thanks for the stats always ^^
[*] :T: [url=http://aligulac.com/players/55-Flash/]Flash[/url] 1878 [small]([green]+18: Proleague)[/small]
[*] :Z: [url=http://aligulac.com/players/8-viOLet/]viOLet[/url] 1859 [small]([green]+14: WCS AM, [/green])[/small]
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Not only aligulac is an awesome site, but I always enjoy the humour and spirit you put in your thread 
(Poor SeleCT btw :p )
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I really like the top 10 of both Koreans and foreigners now, feels extremely accurate. At least in my books.
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I want to try that ForGGedon thing
I am kinda scared though
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The changes have made a really positive impact, I believe that list is much closer to accurate than it ever has been.
There are still some anomalies (I wish older results depreciated faster, Violet is a great player but hasn't shown a lot in HotS yet) but it's pretty good.
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Who's flashpoint at 84th rank ?_?
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Wow, 54% TvZ and 47% PvT. I would have thought PvT would have been 50/50. Not too surprised by the TvZ win rate, considering Terrans love dropping me into a base and I'm always expected to get damage done pretty easily.
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On June 13 2013 08:07 Emzeeshady wrote:
Balance looks real good. TvZ seems to be stabilizing at 55% which isn't too bad. I wouldn't risk a change to it seing how it is the best matchup right now.
I can't believe Luci is still NO1, he has had middling results recently.
He is 0-2 vs Ryung, 1-1 vs HerO and 1-0 vs Hyun since the last list was posted. You don't lose thaaat many points if you lose to good Koreans.
Happy, Bunny and Dayshi are the only foreigners who did really, really well recently and they are/were too far down in points to be a threat so quickly.
Every foreigner who isn't Happy should be glad that not even all the online cups he plays are included.
Btw, aligulac if someone has time, please add Palit Cup from June 8th! They do have race buttons and all, everything you need.
http://palit.cyberarena.tv/tournament/16258/
Palit Cups in general are listed here with dates and all.
http://palit.cyberarena.tv/tournaments/
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As cool as Aligulac is, I feel that any thread heralding its improvements is incomplete without some reference to a cool graph, which (to my mind) is integral to the Aligulac experience.
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This is the first time that I'd say this could be taken at least a bit seriously.
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It's "это", not "эту". The translator has failed you, my friend.
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A much better and more realistic rating system.
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On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real?
that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist
Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia?
good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
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United States33432 Posts
time decay makes more sense than an arbitrary 200 point boost to koreanas D:
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Bisutopia19267 Posts
Strong showing for protoss in the top 10!
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On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
Is just a math fix to fit real life results.
I study chemistry and we do this kind of dishonest shit all the time to match real life, from the most beloved atomic theory to the simplest lab test, all do this kind of stuff.
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On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
What makes you arbitrarily declare that foreigners are equal in skill to Koreans when it has been proven for years that Koreans are simply better?
Yes, giving Koreans 1,200 rating is a big assumption, but it actually matches the current state of StarCraft II better than the assumption that all players start on equal footing. The problem is compounded by how the foreign and Korean scenes were isolated for a long time. This meant that the top foreigners and the top Koreans had similar ratings. Later, when the scenes blended together, the top Koreans dominated the top foreigners so much that, in hindsight, giving Koreans an extra 200 points made a great deal of sense.
Subjectively, I love this change because Mvp is #2 on the list. Now the creators simply have to find a way to make him #1... then the list would be perfect.
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The list looks great now.
Edit: Wait no Soulkey? But Curious? lul.
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Bisutopia19267 Posts
On June 13 2013 12:06 ZenithM wrote:
The list looks great now.
Edit: Wait no Soulkey? But Curious? lul.
Yeah I don't trust aligulac. I earned 500+ spots in LB from near perfect WCS predictions that were my own in the past month.
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On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
It isn't "racist" because Koreans are favored somewhat in points. When you think about it, the Korean scene is the most competitive in every aspect, from the tournaments, the players and ladder. Now when Koreans are developing into the best players overall, it only makes sense for the country to be generally better at the game than most foreigners. And when you look at the ratings now, it is far more accurate in terms of tournament results and recent results of players because the Koreans received a 200 point boost.
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On June 13 2013 11:38 Belha wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid Is just a math fix to fit real life results. I study chemistry and we do this kind of dishonest shit all the time to match real life, from the most beloved atomic theory to the simplest lab test, all do this kind of stuff.
More applicable to this situation that chemistry, data scientists who design recommender systems, algorithms, ad-targeting systems, or even spam filters do this shit all the time.
It's like giving an automatic score boost to someone with a girly username to get a shoe ad. Or spam filters being likelier to filter out people saying they're from Nigeria.
It sounds silly and racist/sexist or whatever but it optimizes performance.
To be frank, I used to think Aligulac's rankings are crap and part of me still thinks they're silly sometimes. But I do know the work and genius that goes into designing these kinds of systems so while it is flawed I acknowledge the creator (theBB) as a brilliant genius who's probably smarter than most if not all of his critics on the forums. It just so happens the ranking still sucks compared to the knowledge of avid followers of starcraft (LOL).
And this isn't really much of a feedback since I haven't looked into the actual code/math of it. But has theBB ever ran his prediction system against historical matches or even liquibet system?
Maybe you have a 1 and subtract it by whoever won's pre-game chances. Rinse and repeat 1000 or so times. Then you have a relative benchmark that you can run as a test for future improvements as actually being improvements.
Sort of like RMSE and trying to decrease it as much as possible, but in this case we don't really need to square and sqrt.
That way we might be able to have a way of measuring how good the system is currently and a way to check the continuing progress and instead of giving 200 points randomly, we can give points that would go to optimizing the RMSE.
Once again, I haven't actually looked in depth into this, so feel free to ignore my suggestion.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
Aligulac vs liquibets vs Fionn, go!
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TheBB made a blog detailing the accuracy of the Aligulac predictions compared to the best Liquibetters.
TheBB's Blog
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Bisutopia19267 Posts
On June 13 2013 13:22 PhoenixVoid wrote:TheBB made a blog detailing the accuracy of the Aligulac predictions compared to the best Liquibetters. TheBB's Blog
Yes but he made a huge mistake in his blog by forgetting point value. As in I unlike the machine can take risks on Soulkey and gain 7 points while the machine has to now get 7 1 point votes correct to catch up. So while I'm at 60% I'm still doing really well with the high value votes
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No Soulkey? Or is the list not updated? o_O
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Soulkey is around 14 I think, less than 10 points behind Curious, which is based more on happenstance than skill.
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United States97276 Posts
It's probably because when Soulkey goes 3-2 or 4-3 in all his matches he gains points but not as fast of a rate as if he had won in more dominating fashion, so while he's moving up the list, he's moving slowly. He'll probably be in the top 10 soon. His map score was 15-11 last rating period and he still gained points and the period before that he went 5-5.
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On June 13 2013 13:27 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 13:22 PhoenixVoid wrote:TheBB made a blog detailing the accuracy of the Aligulac predictions compared to the best Liquibetters. TheBB's Blog Yes but he made a huge mistake in his blog by forgetting point value. As in I unlike the machine can take risks on Soulkey and gain 7 points while the machine has to now get 7 1 point votes correct to catch up. So while I'm at 60% I'm still doing really well with the high value votes
That is so wrong 'take risks on Soulkey and gain 7 points...' that completely doesn't make sense, point value has no relation to how likely you are to be correct because whether it's worth 7 points or 1 it's still a 50-50 bet.
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innovation over 2000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
Dreamhack/MLG/OSL will give Life back the #1 in no time (or actually 4 weeks, but yeah)
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On June 13 2013 08:08 Emzeeshady wrote:
Lol, the GSL champion and WCS world finals semi finalist isn't in the top ten...
He is only 10 points from top 10 though
On June 13 2013 08:09 Serimek wrote:
Who's flashpoint at 84th rank ?_?
A statistical anomaly.
On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
Who do you fear more?
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The Koreans in our DB were on average more than 200 points higher rated than foreigners, so we sped up the point transfer a bit
On June 13 2013 13:05 wklbishop wrote:
And this isn't really much of a feedback since I haven't looked into the actual code/math of it. But has theBB ever ran his prediction system against historical matches or even liquibet system?
Maybe you have a 1 and subtract it by whoever won's pre-game chances. Rinse and repeat 1000 or so times. Then you have a relative benchmark that you can run as a test for future improvements as actually being improvements.
Sort of like RMSE and trying to decrease it as much as possible, but in this case we don't really need to square and sqrt.
That way we might be able to have a way of measuring how good the system is currently and a way to check the continuing progress and instead of giving 200 points randomly, we can give points that would go to optimizing the RMSE.
Once again, I haven't actually looked in depth into this, so feel free to ignore my suggestion.
Using the data in the DB to compare actual results with predicted results.
After period 1, the model try to predict all the results entered in period 2.
After period 2, the model try to predict all the results entered in period 3, using the results from period 1 & 2.
Rinse and repeat.
The models parameters are being optimized trying to raise the predictabillity.
On June 13 2013 16:47 Zealously wrote:
Dreamhack/MLG/OSL will give Life back the #1 in no time (or actually 4 weeks, but yeah)
Most likely after this weekend.
On June 13 2013 Grovbolle wrote:
Now before we get into this, remember that a difference of around 250 or less means that there is no statistically significant difference between two players, but who am I kidding, you just want to rage and yell at our stats, so here we go.
Most people seems to miss this in the OP
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On June 13 2013 16:55 Grovbolle wrote:A statistical anomaly.
That, I understood 
But what I meant is who is he in real life ? Just a random master player who get to later stages of an online cup by sheer luck ? Or maybe an up-and-coming player no one noticed before ?
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On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia?
I was loathe to try it for a good while, but I've warmed up to the idea.
In the old system, it had taken the Koreans 3 years to gain a mean rating advantage on the foreign scene of about 140 points. When Koreans went abroad and participated in foreign tournaments, they consistently overperformed by several hundred points. When ForGG went to France he gained almost 500 points in only 3-4 months. Assuming his real skill didn't change too much over that time, that means he was underrated compared to the Europeans by at least 300 points.
If I had left the system untouched, it would have taken something like 5 or 6 years until the ratings of Koreans had caught up to their actual level. That is unacceptable. It's a problem that you don't have in chess and other places where such ratings exist. I didn't have any papers to draw on, so I just came up with the best idea I could.
It's definitely not racism. I don't subscribe to the idea that a higher Aligulac rating makes someone a more valuable human being.
As for the offline weighing, I was also not willing to try it for a long time, but it also helps the Korean scene. You see, Koreans consistently play fewer games than foreigners do. This means that while the foreign ranking shows an accurate picture of today, the Korean ranking shows an accurate picture of two months back. That's also not acceptable. However, while Koreans do not play very often, when they do, they almost always play offline.
So I consider the offline boost a way to speed up the inter-Korean adjustments, and the Korean boost a way to speed up the Korean-foreigner adjustments.
There are two ways you can view ratings. You can consider it as a way to quantify actual real skill, or you can consider it a competition unto itself. I like both, but in Starcraft 2 I don't think it's possible to accommodate both viewpoints. If I make it fair like a competition, it will be a poor indicator of skill (it will claim Koreans are poorer than they actually are). With this change, I have decided to move more in the former direction. It's a better indicator of actual skill, but it cannot any longer be considered a "competition" since the rules are no longer fair. Well, so be it.
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lol how much will innovation lose after shine 6 pooled him ?
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By the way, feature requests will have to be deprioritized for a while as I finish my Ph.D. I still have a team of people who do some work, but of course they don't know their way around the code as I do. So feel free to request, but don't expect any huge leaps forward until, say, October.
On June 13 2013 19:28 Tsubbi wrote:
lol how much will innovation lose after shine 6 pooled him ?
Ha, just for you I made an extraordinary rating update. The answer is 15 points. 
http://aligulac.com/players/48-INnoVation/period/87/
Edit: The shoutout to MasterOfPuppets and Shellshock is well deserved!
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thanks man, so life is on top again good to see xD
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No more ForGGeddon haha, the crisis is over.
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More than 1/2 the time when I try to use the search function the page doesn't load (I get an Oops Chrome couldn't connect message) wonder if that is just me.
EDIT: It has actually gotten worse. Now it is struggling to load the page at all.
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Bisutopia19267 Posts
On June 13 2013 16:34 gobbledydook wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 13:27 BisuDagger wrote:On June 13 2013 13:22 PhoenixVoid wrote:TheBB made a blog detailing the accuracy of the Aligulac predictions compared to the best Liquibetters. TheBB's Blog Yes but he made a huge mistake in his blog by forgetting point value. As in I unlike the machine can take risks on Soulkey and gain 7 points while the machine has to now get 7 1 point votes correct to catch up. So while I'm at 60% I'm still doing really well with the high value votes That is so wrong 'take risks on Soulkey and gain 7 points...' that completely doesn't make sense, point value has no relation to how likely you are to be correct because whether it's worth 7 points or 1 it's still a 50-50 bet.
What are you talking about? First off if one person has an 80% chance to win a game then even if it is between two people it doesn't mean it's 50/50, it's 80/20. People are not coins. It's not black and white/heads or tails otherwise the average person would have a 50% LB ratio. And a lot of the time it's predicting two people to make it through a group so that's an added variable to take into consideration. If you truly believe that MVP vs Idra is a 50/50 vote then don't reply because we will never see eye to eye on this.
But your other statement that points don't make a difference in how right I am is true. But that wasn't my point so pay attention. The blog was about using the computer to make all your LB choices for you and that you can stay at the top using Aligulac. So if Innovation was favored in the computer then you lost 7 points by trusting the computer. I took a risk and went with Soulkey and it paid off. So my point is I can actually having a lower correct voting % then Aligulac but still have more points because I can take into all factors when choosing high point value votes.
example:
If Aligulac gets 7/10 votes correct and I got 6/10 correct. Does this mean I'm losing? No, not if my point total is higher then Aligulac.
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On June 14 2013 01:12 FCReverie wrote:
More than 1/2 the time when I try to use the search function the page doesn't load (I get an Oops Chrome couldn't connect message) wonder if that is just me.
EDIT: It has actually gotten worse. Now it is struggling to load the page at all.
Looks like it's down right now, I'd wait to see if it gets better.
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On June 14 2013 01:29 slowbacontron wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2013 01:12 FCReverie wrote:
More than 1/2 the time when I try to use the search function the page doesn't load (I get an Oops Chrome couldn't connect message) wonder if that is just me.
EDIT: It has actually gotten worse. Now it is struggling to load the page at all. Looks like it's down right now, I'd wait to see if it gets better.
I don't know shit about running a web server. I just made a site... not my fault people are using it. xD
I ordered a reboot, let's see what happens.
Update 19:13 CEST: No news so far, the VPS dashboard is bugged too. I've submitted a ticket to the host, so that's all for the moment.
Update 19:37 CEST: The host's websites are also not responding, now.
Update 20:26 CEST: Service appears back to normal.
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Life will return to number 1 np
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On June 14 2013 03:55 mnck wrote:
Life will return to number 1 np
Yeah, he's going to Europe for a point farming fest.
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On June 13 2013 13:05 wklbishop wrote:
But I do know the work and genius that goes into designing these kinds of systems so while it is flawed I acknowledge the creator (theBB) as a brilliant genius who's probably smarter than most if not all of his critics on the forums.
Almost PhD in math.... Math
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Giving Koreans extra points is....odd.
You don't give Spain an extra 3 points in their World Cup Soccer/Football group because they're better than the other teams.
If anything you give them LESS points because they're better...but I'm not condoning that because I don't agree with artificially adjusting peoples ratings based on technicalities.
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On June 15 2013 01:11 Nekovivie wrote:
Giving Koreans extra points is....odd.
You don't give Spain an extra 3 points in their World Cup Soccer/Football group because they're better than the other teams.
If anything you give them LESS points because they're better...but I'm not condoning that because I don't agree with artificially adjusting peoples ratings based on technicalities.
This is not a system you "win" anything from , not sure what you are talking about.
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Why are some matches listed as "unrated"? I can't find anything about that in the FAQ.
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On June 19 2013 02:59 Stijn wrote:
Why are some matches listed as "unrated"? I can't find anything about that in the FAQ.
That just means that those are matches that have been added to the database recently. They have not yet been rated, as the rating process is not instantaneous. It shouldn't take very long for the matches to be added to the ratings, however.
Also: http://aligulac.com/players/185-StarDust/period/87/ That's one hell of a rating adjustment. +250 points!
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That explains things, thanks!
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The updates are 0:00, 6:00, 12:00, 18:00 UTC +2
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EPT
