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On June 13 2013 08:07 Emzeeshady wrote:
Balance looks real good. TvZ seems to be stabilizing at 55% which isn't too bad. I wouldn't risk a change to it seing how it is the best matchup right now.
I can't believe Luci is still NO1, he has had middling results recently.
He is 0-2 vs Ryung, 1-1 vs HerO and 1-0 vs Hyun since the last list was posted. You don't lose thaaat many points if you lose to good Koreans.
Happy, Bunny and Dayshi are the only foreigners who did really, really well recently and they are/were too far down in points to be a threat so quickly.
Every foreigner who isn't Happy should be glad that not even all the online cups he plays are included.
Btw, aligulac if someone has time, please add Palit Cup from June 8th! They do have race buttons and all, everything you need. 
http://palit.cyberarena.tv/tournament/16258/
Palit Cups in general are listed here with dates and all.
http://palit.cyberarena.tv/tournaments/
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As cool as Aligulac is, I feel that any thread heralding its improvements is incomplete without some reference to a cool graph, which (to my mind) is integral to the Aligulac experience.
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This is the first time that I'd say this could be taken at least a bit seriously.
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It's "это", not "эту". The translator has failed you, my friend.
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A much better and more realistic rating system.
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On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real?
that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist
Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia?
good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
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United States33707 Posts
time decay makes more sense than an arbitrary 200 point boost to koreanas D:
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Bisutopia19392 Posts
Strong showing for protoss in the top 10!
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On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
Is just a math fix to fit real life results.
I study chemistry and we do this kind of dishonest shit all the time to match real life, from the most beloved atomic theory to the simplest lab test, all do this kind of stuff.
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On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
What makes you arbitrarily declare that foreigners are equal in skill to Koreans when it has been proven for years that Koreans are simply better?
Yes, giving Koreans 1,200 rating is a big assumption, but it actually matches the current state of StarCraft II better than the assumption that all players start on equal footing. The problem is compounded by how the foreign and Korean scenes were isolated for a long time. This meant that the top foreigners and the top Koreans had similar ratings. Later, when the scenes blended together, the top Koreans dominated the top foreigners so much that, in hindsight, giving Koreans an extra 200 points made a great deal of sense.
Subjectively, I love this change because Mvp is #2 on the list. Now the creators simply have to find a way to make him #1... then the list would be perfect.
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The list looks great now.
Edit: Wait no Soulkey? But Curious? lul.
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Bisutopia19392 Posts
On June 13 2013 12:06 ZenithM wrote:
The list looks great now.
Edit: Wait no Soulkey? But Curious? lul.
Yeah I don't trust aligulac. I earned 500+ spots in LB from near perfect WCS predictions that were my own in the past month.
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On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid
It isn't "racist" because Koreans are favored somewhat in points. When you think about it, the Korean scene is the most competitive in every aspect, from the tournaments, the players and ladder. Now when Koreans are developing into the best players overall, it only makes sense for the country to be generally better at the game than most foreigners. And when you look at the ratings now, it is far more accurate in terms of tournament results and recent results of players because the Koreans received a 200 point boost.
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On June 13 2013 11:38 Belha wrote:Show nested quote +On June 13 2013 11:16 leova wrote:On June 13 2013 07:09 Grovbolle wrote:Koreans are given a boosted initial rating of 1200. This is the biggest change by far. We've seen some people claim that effects due to this are actually due to #2. This is incorrect. Anyway, Koreans ARE on average rated at LEAST 200 points higher than foreigners (probably even more), so this is perfectly justified. The boost is given to any player with a Korean nationality. This also means people like Select, but that's fine. Their head start over foreigners is nulllified almost instantly since they play mostly foreigners. This is more about giving the Korean pool a head start over the foreign pool that is more in tune with reality.
wow....for real? that's, um....kinda silly, to be honest, and borderline racist Why is someone automatically a better Video Game Player simply based on where they were born? Being born in Korea makes you 1% cyborg, so you're auto-better than a guy from Brazil or France or Ethiopia? good lord, no wonder these ratings are stupid Is just a math fix to fit real life results. I study chemistry and we do this kind of dishonest shit all the time to match real life, from the most beloved atomic theory to the simplest lab test, all do this kind of stuff.
More applicable to this situation that chemistry, data scientists who design recommender systems, algorithms, ad-targeting systems, or even spam filters do this shit all the time.
It's like giving an automatic score boost to someone with a girly username to get a shoe ad. Or spam filters being likelier to filter out people saying they're from Nigeria.
It sounds silly and racist/sexist or whatever but it optimizes performance.
To be frank, I used to think Aligulac's rankings are crap and part of me still thinks they're silly sometimes. But I do know the work and genius that goes into designing these kinds of systems so while it is flawed I acknowledge the creator (theBB) as a brilliant genius who's probably smarter than most if not all of his critics on the forums. It just so happens the ranking still sucks compared to the knowledge of avid followers of starcraft (LOL).
And this isn't really much of a feedback since I haven't looked into the actual code/math of it. But has theBB ever ran his prediction system against historical matches or even liquibet system?
Maybe you have a 1 and subtract it by whoever won's pre-game chances. Rinse and repeat 1000 or so times. Then you have a relative benchmark that you can run as a test for future improvements as actually being improvements.
Sort of like RMSE and trying to decrease it as much as possible, but in this case we don't really need to square and sqrt.
That way we might be able to have a way of measuring how good the system is currently and a way to check the continuing progress and instead of giving 200 points randomly, we can give points that would go to optimizing the RMSE.
Once again, I haven't actually looked in depth into this, so feel free to ignore my suggestion.
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
Aligulac vs liquibets vs Fionn, go!
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TheBB made a blog detailing the accuracy of the Aligulac predictions compared to the best Liquibetters.
TheBB's Blog
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Bisutopia19392 Posts
On June 13 2013 13:22 PhoenixVoid wrote:TheBB made a blog detailing the accuracy of the Aligulac predictions compared to the best Liquibetters. TheBB's Blog
Yes but he made a huge mistake in his blog by forgetting point value. As in I unlike the machine can take risks on Soulkey and gain 7 points while the machine has to now get 7 1 point votes correct to catch up. So while I'm at 60% I'm still doing really well with the high value votes
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No Soulkey? Or is the list not updated? o_O
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Soulkey is around 14 I think, less than 10 points behind Curious, which is based more on happenstance than skill.
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EPT
