EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXV
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Spaghetticus
Australia451 Posts
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Spaghetticus
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At this moment in time I am swamped catching up on the thread. I had not preciously payed any attention to it and am completely lost as a result. It is night, so this timing is optimal for me to catch up. I'm taking notes on everyone (as always), and on completion of reading the thread I'll have the working parts of a sound analysis if not a pertinent case. I'll be working around the clock to bring this shit in, until then you only have my apology for my lack of real activity. | ||
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Spaghetticus
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Lurker: (stage whispers) Lets lurk the lynchers! Spag: *lynches townie that was lurking for no reason* The input so far for a lot of people is insufficient. I am one of those pro-LAL thugs, so if you lurk and you are town YOU WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING TOWN. If you are lurking you are wasting opportunities to both scum hunt and prove your innocence as town. IMO there is no scummier behaviour than lurking, I'm half way through the thread and the number of lurkers is spectacular. I even see cannibal lurkers calling each other into the lime-light when all they have up until that point is three or so posts. I trust the man that whispers naught but scummy temptation in my ear more than he who says nothing. If you feel you are in the bottom three most active people, and you are town, you are ACTIVELY handing the game over to scum. I hope for all of our sake you have picked up your activity since page [15]. I'm so sick of games being determined not by good players, but lurker filth. //back to catching up. | ||
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Omni you seem to have taken something on board from my defense of Corazon in XXXIII, and Zare you seem to be sheeping the sentiment. (1) - On day one there was no resistance to a lynch on Laguerta. (2) - If Laguerta were scum, his scum buddies would be worried and try and make another bandwagon (C) - Laguerta is not scum. This mirrors my argument in defense of Corazon precisely, though this may not have been causal. I was wrong in making that argument because Corazon was scum and he was being bussed day one. I wasn't incorrect in thinking that at this skill level people are too thick to bus day one, but I did make a massive error which my good friend DP (he is actually my friend in RL and the reason I started play mafia, he is not my good friend because he coaches scum) was so nice as to point out. DP told me: "I was coaching scum and told them to bus Corazon" You see how my theorycrafting failed to take into account that there was a certain level of organisation created by a scum coach being an active participant in both the scum QT, and exerting control via personal messages? If a scum is being bandwagoned hardcore day one, the coach will tell the other scum to let natural selection take its course. I am not going to make a case or vote yet, as I have only read up to [22], but I don't want you thinking for a second that just because Laguerta had seven votes that he is not scum. | ||
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Spaghetticus
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Things may have changed since I read this, but I thought I should post immediately because I don't want to be vegi'd, and a good way to stop that happening is by starting a pattern of contribution before he makes his night action (if he exists). I don't want to be vege'd, and I ask that if you do exist, know that I will be among the most active members (last time I even outgunned Mocsta). There will be no lack of information available on me, so I suggest you hit one of the lurkers or demi-lurkers instead. | ||
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Mocsta – 4.8 pages with good contribution Oatsmaster – 4.2 pages with good contribution OmniEulogy – 2.7 pages with good contribution Mandalor – 2 pages with decent contribution Shz – 2 pages with average contribution Acid – 1 page with high contribution Zebezt – 1.5 pages with decent contibution Trotske – 1.1 pages with low contribution Zarepath – 1.1 pages with low contribution Laguerta – 8 posts with no content except defence Sno_man – 8 posts with no content except attacking Mocsta Glutio – 6 posts with no content but voting for LaGuerta While this took me 10min to scratch so some of the descriptions may not be entirely accurate, it gives a good indication of why town is fucking confused right now. Mandalor has far more content posted than most of you and he's been dead a while... In fact I've arguably got more actual contribution already than the bottom 3-5 posters, and I've been here like 12 hours or something. I am voting someone from Zebezt down. So one of: - Zebezt - Trotske - Zarepath - Laguerta - Sn0_man - Glutio This is not set in stone, but honestly I know better than to hope that each and everyone of you will participate. You have the option to take yourself off my list simply by lifting your activity. Once I feel that you are actually participating in the game I will not vote you as a result of policy. | ||
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Spaghetticus
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(1) - The most pertinent factor to our current position is that there are SO MANY LURKERS. I have never seen a game this infested with them. A 50% split of lurkers is absolutely pathetic, and you town lurkers (see how there are so many lurkers I can deduce that at least half of them are town) should be ashamed. Your non-involvement in the game is costing the active town by introducing variables that compound their uncertainty. You are a burden and you are losing the game for town. Any activity at all is better than no activity, at least give the other town the opportunity to read and subsequently ignore you before lurking into a coma. (2) - Who is mayor and should there even be one? Mocsta is usually Mayor, and I am delighted to actually see other people stand up to him in this respect. I don't like there being a mayor that is not me, and even then I don't like people that just let me traipse up and take the crown. Mayor is a role that should be reserved for actually confirmed town, otherwise their power as an organising force is significantly depleted by the doubt in the minds of their townie followers. They are also subject to the pitfalls of being human, the same as the rest of us. I've seen more than enough chest-beating to make me think I should keep both Oats and Mocsta on the lynch-later list. If they both continue to contribute at this rate they will burn out and slip if they are scum. I will actively defend both of these people from a lynch day two. (3) - OmniEulogy is confirmed town. He has changed his meta from scummy to actual pro-town. This is a read from a more complex dialogue outside of the game, but put simply: - he has played deliberately scummy in previous games in order to give himself room to work with when he actually rolls scum - I warned him that while I have been avoiding him in game I had decided to tunnel him as I could no longer take the bullshit, along as communicating several reasons for why a better player would play to the best of their ability every game - He improved his style when he did not need to. I was not in the game to tunnel him, and if he rolled scum he would have had three games worth of established scummy play to work with, all but guaranteeing him a scum victory if he rolled scum. If he rolled scum he would be under zero pressure to change his style and we would be looking at a clusterfuck of WIFOM and OMGUS instead of the rational play he is demonstrating. (4) - The lynch was pure chaos. I am yet to go through the exact process of it, and it is unlikely I'll do it tonight (it's 4:00am here), but a lot of emphasis has been put on the part where Oats yells at Mocsta, and Mocsta changes his vote last minute. I don't get a scum-read off either, but this was part of the stuff I skimmed. Mocsta has been known to change his vote last minute in his town games, but has never really justified this action properly. We all need to comb both the events surrounding the lynch, and the upcoming night actions accordingly. (5) - This point is related to some of the others. The active members have been showing cannibal tendencies, and while every one is laughing and brushing the dust off, these things often resurface. Out of the active players, there is likely only one mafia at most, the other two are among the lurkers. Scum will NK one active member per night, if you add to this mislynched active players you are looking at LURKERS vs SCUM for end-game. I don't need to tell you that this will end badly. We need to LAL, and LAL hard. I have no problem keeping the pressure on active members getting them to justify their continued existence, but when it comes to vote time you need to preserve the people that are actually generating discussion. Swallow your hatred and look to the scummiest lurker. (6) - Laguerta. I've already dismantled one reasoning used by Omni and Zare as to why he has to be town. This should put him back to a NULL read. Everyone needs to understand his lie and make their own decisions as to whether it was scummy. I personally find it to be a mildly-scummy read due to a scum in a previous game wanting a no-lynch on day one. The lie does not really affect my read on him, as it's a mistake regardless of whether he is town or scum. On top of his complete lack of contribution, this makes him a strong candidate for a day two lynch in my eyes. I am going to bed, I will likely arise in 8 hours at 12noon, and then have 6 hours before I need to go to badminton which will last until approximately 11:00pm my time. If people have questions for me please bald my name at the top. I don't see the need (/don't have the motive) to write a will like Mocsta's, as it is unlikely I will be killed by scum. I do appreciate his efforts though. I hope you took the time to read my points as I believe there to be at least one of great importance. I look forward to your questions when I wake up. Goodnight. | ||
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@Sn0 While I have a deep appreciation for your contribution, please refrain from making association cases until someone has flipped scum. It's just not efficient to go through the ramifications of every possibility until you actually have something to go on, and this method is incredibly prone to confirmation bias. This is the general consensus of experienced town players, and while I usually have a hard time swallowing the shit they spit out, I really do agree with this bit of wisdom. I look forward to your continued contribution :D gnight | ||
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@Mocsta. I am certain that Oats killed Glurio. He asked several probing question to town about whether they were suspicious of Glurio. It looks to me as if he wanted to hit the lurker that was garnering the lest attention, and I think he was right in doing so. Do not talk about SK, we have enough newbies here with wild imaginations, let's keep the focus on scum. An SK is probably scarier for scum since they can't control him, it's really a wast of time thinking about SK until we have evidence of his existence. I'm going to go and address some of the questions/suspicions placed on me. | ||
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I do not want my LAL to hobby interfere with contributing to the cause. While I vote for lurkers the first two days (no, Mandalore would not have been my choice), I like to set up for day three by pressuring the active members. This pressure is not backed up by a day two vote, but will set the stage for a strong day three. | ||
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This is not a town read of petty scale. I will defend this read, and I want people to know that it is pointless attacking Omni while I am around. I am not someone known for my confidence in my reads, this one I am dead certain of. There is no way that Omni would throw away three compromised town games in order to appear town to someone that he did not know would be in the game. Meta-reads in newbies are generally garbage, but this has mitigating circumstances. I don’t care if you decide not to treat him as confirmed town, I just don’t want anyone wasting their time attacking him. @Zebezt in response to this quote: Did ANYONE think bringaniga was useful the way he was playing? I dont think so. I did. He was trying to foster a town atmosphere by asking people to contribute. Granted, his trolling persona was inexcusable, but he was still doing more for town than 70% of players in the game at that time. @Mocsta I know you’ve come under fire from a lot of vets outside the game for your controlling methods (I also criticised you). At this moment in time, I think the energy you give town is invaluable, so please stop being so damn defensive about every upstart resistance and contribute the best way you know how. Up until now you’ve been so involved in positive self-evaluation and crushing dissenters that you are derailing town and filling the thread with whiny victimised bullshit. While I do have a meta-read on the causal reasons for your butthurtedness, that shit can just as easily be used as a cover for scumming the thread up deliberately. @Sn0 For those curious, I quite simply ignored the mafia game except for 5 mins to read the latest page and toss in my vote. I wasn't "lurking" or "couldn't take the heat". I'm happy to answer direct questions you may have. WTFWTF Want a direct question? What the fuck is this? Am I interpreting this correctly? You just casually ignore the game with no excuse, not because you are lurking but because you DGAF? You’re off my day two LAL list, but you better be able to explain this or you’re a candidate for day three. @Trotske Have you not heard? I am a pretty big deal. LAL is what I live and breathe day 1&2, but I understand your point that my contributions on other fronts have been limited. It may or may not be due to HAVING STARTED 50 HOURS AFTER EVERYONE ELSE. I am aware that I did ask you to contribute and that by going Ad-Hom I would be an enormous hypocrite. That you ask for contribution from someone who has been losing sleep catching up on the thread while you are sitting on a two-page filter after night one is not lost on me. You are contributing now however. If you want to pursue me further you need to post a case stating more than I haven’t done anything other than X. X is more than I see most people doing. Make a case or focus your efforts elsewhere please. | ||
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@Zare and Shz This is not a town read of petty scale. I will defend this read, and I want people to know that it is pointless attacking Omni while I am around. I am not someone known for my confidence in my reads, this one I am dead certain of. There is no way that Omni would throw away three compromised town games in order to appear town to someone that he did not know would be in the game. Meta-reads in newbies are generally garbage, but this has mitigating circumstances. I don’t care if you decide not to treat him as confirmed town, I just don’t want anyone wasting their time attacking him. @Zebezt in response to this quote: Did ANYONE think bringaniga was useful the way he was playing? I dont think so. I did. He was trying to foster a town atmosphere by asking people to contribute. Granted, his trolling persona was inexcusable, but he was still doing more for town than 70% of players in the game at that time. @Mocsta I know you’ve come under fire from a lot of vets outside the game for your controlling methods (I also criticised you). At this moment in time, I think the energy you give town is invaluable, so please stop being so damn defensive about every upstart resistance and contribute the best way you know how. Up until now you’ve been so involved in positive self-evaluation and crushing dissenters that you are derailing town and filling the thread with whiny victimised bullshit. While I do have a meta-read on the causal reasons for your butthurtedness, that shit can just as easily be used as a cover for scumming the thread up deliberately. @Sn0 For those curious, I quite simply ignored the mafia game except for 5 mins to read the latest page and toss in my vote. I wasn't "lurking" or "couldn't take the heat". I'm happy to answer direct questions you may have. WTFWTF Want a direct question? What the fuck is this? Am I interpreting this correctly? You just casually ignore the game with no excuse, not because you are lurking but because you DGAF? You’re off my day two LAL list, but you better be able to explain this or you’re a candidate for day three. @Trotske Have you not heard? I am a pretty big deal. LAL is what I live and breathe day 1&2, but I understand your point that my contributions on other fronts have been limited. It may or may not be due to HAVING STARTED 50 HOURS AFTER EVERYONE ELSE. I am aware that I did ask you to contribute and that by going Ad-Hom I would be an enormous hypocrite. That you ask for contribution from someone who has been losing sleep catching up on the thread while you are sitting on a two-page filter after night one is not lost on me. You are contributing now however. If you want to pursue me further you need to post a case stating more than I haven’t done anything other than X. X is more than I see most people doing. Make a case or focus your efforts elsewhere please. | ||
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I have some opinions on your case on Zarepath, but I'll allow him to answer for himself before I post. | ||
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How does At this moment in time, I think the energy you give town is invaluable, so please stop being so damn defensive about every upstart resistance and contribute the best way you know how elicit a response like In the meantime, I am going to take a step back from trying to lead discussion, I hope this will give others the incentive to step up and contribute more. I want you to be active, but cut the crap. Are you so certain that the entirety of your contribution is crap that in order to cut said crap you must stop posting? I want you there on day three because you are active, and if you are scum you will slip as a result. If you downgrade your activity I will shit on you for motivated lurking. It is clear that I want you to stop wasting time being a victim, and I am not the only person with these thoughts. You are not responsible for other people lurking, but you are responsible for hiding their posts with tirades of self-pitying crap. | ||
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See that you do. That was one of the single worst explanations for lurking I've ever seen. | ||
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Feel free to suspect me, but please stop looking to solve the game in one glorious glance of insight before a single red-flip. Such a feat speaks more of phenomenal luck than talent, and the pursuit of such an objective inhibits useful scum-hunting methods and clogs up the thread. | ||
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That sounds more reasonable. I apologise for over-reacting. | ||
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I had assumed that when you did start posting, you would be continuing that pattern from now on. The Stuff you posted was seemed good, but you still have the smallest filter. I know this is a backflip since you weren't on my list of people under pressure, but your complete lack of activity is giving you the smallest filter, and a town shouldn't feel that he needs to be pressed into doing town activity. I want to see more from you, so while this is a vote that does have intention to lynch, it is conditional in that I will remove it the second you start contributing properly again. ##Vote: Acid | ||
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I know this isn’t the most important topic to comment on, but I feel I’ve got some things to say here. By reviewing a review I effectively get to appraise two people with one post. I will make up for it soon with some OC I promise. + Show Spoiler + On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote: I am posting all of my reads right now because I'd like to do so before the end of N1 and I'm not confident that I'll be around/have the time to do so closer to the deadline. These are reads, not full claims, and so I welcome any argument/discussion about them. But they're all based on me reading through the entire thread, and the entire filter for each person. Hi guys I've contributed nothing but I'm totally worried about being NK'd for no reason that I can think of. Probably worried about being Vigi'd? Dunno but this post seems a bit weird. Not seriously off though, I can see townie zare writing this A will is always a good thing to post. While I can’t begin to imagine why he would be night-killed, I don’t see any scum motive behind this decision so it is irrelevant. Laguerta + Show Spoiler + He just seems very rough, and very inactive, but not in a tone that seems to imply intended inactivity, but one of pure laziness. It's clear he did not work very hard at his contributions Day 1, and that, combined with the ease of the Laguerta Lynch, suggests to me that he is TOWN. I'm still unsure that lag is town. He is/was merely a terrible player (see TeMil last game) Laguerta was a smurf. I can’t see a reason why a smurf would come into a thread and be as lazy as he was unless it was calculated. This calculation could have been prior to rolling his alignment, but I doubt he was as shit as he seemed. Are we allowed to know who the smurf was owned by If we can find out who the smurf was, we can make an informed decision as to whether they would lurk in game. It could be Threesr coming back for more, but I think it’s more likely it’s some vet that wanted to fuck with us. + Show Spoiler + Sn0_Man His inactivity immediately puts him on the side of scum, then he has a full "review post" of the chaotic final hour of the lynch. His cases have not been rigorous, his biggest case (against Troske) involves a lot of association and hypothetical scenarios. But he's the only one really pushing Troske and it does seem like he's trying to figure things out. I don't see enough to put him firmly in one camp or the other, so I consider him someone to watch. Wheee its me. I'm not gonna comment on other's reads except that "inactivity puts him on the side of scum" isn't right. Lurkers aren't helping town, but that doesn't necessarily make them scum (just bad town). Zarepath is right in thinking that lurking = scummy. It’s not 100% chance (the game would be too easy), but lurkers are more likely to be scum than active town. There is little reason for a scum team to have more than one active member, and it’s worse to mislynch an active townie than it is to mislynch a lurker. On top of this, Zare’s post soft-pressures people not to lurk, which is more townish than not doing so. Zare was right to note your lurkiness, but fortunately for all involved, you have reversed this trend so it is no longer a factor. + Show Spoiler + Oats I voted for him yesterday, but after going through his filter today, he oddly seems to be the most valuable townie we have right now. He has pressured more people than anyone else, which HAS led to discussion. I don't see scum motivations for his behavior other than the free use of his voting power, and erratically switching it around until he finally liked where it rested. That seems to fit with his play style, however, so I don't think that is enough for a scum read, even along with the fact that he was immediately aggressive towards Mocsta -- that seems to be a trend in this game, and it's not necessarily unwarranted. Feels like TOWN In light of the NK, its clear what Oats had been doing all along. I too feel like this 180 by zare *could* be a case of "oh we are NK'ing him? time to get buddy buddy" but it certainly isn't proof. We now interrupt our regular programming to bring you his previous vote for Oats: + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2013 12:35 zarepath wrote: ##Vote Oatsmaster Has not been helpful towards town, was an active scum player in another game (so not necessarily a lurker scum), has unvoted FOUR times, most recently very late in the day when it was almost assured that Laguerta would be lynched regardless. His reasoning? "He's scummy but he's not here to defend himself. I'm gonna go vote for someone that nobody else is voting for and will definitely not get lynched, so when Laguerta flips town, I look good." (Okay, so not his literal read, but a possible motivation was thrown in there.) His timing and his lack of reasoning worry me, and I find him to be far more likely to be scum than Laguerta. This is a massive backflip and should garner attention. I’m not sure if Zarepath has responded to this as I have not read past the post I am responding to yet, but if he hasn’t he bloody well should. I can see both a town and scum explanation for this, just as you have outlined Sn0, but this does increase my read on Zare somewhat. + Show Spoiler + On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote: Mocsta Has been as active as I would expect based on his meta, but he is a lot more defensive this time around. After reading filters, I would suggest that's because there are people here deliberately pushing his buttons. It's frustrating how his various defenses clutter the thread and half the time are filled with re-quotes of himself or others, and then there's also the fact that his vote sealed Mandalor's doom. However, I don't find it likely that mafia would switch their vote so that the FINAL vote for a lynch is one of their own. That does not seem like good scum play -- although as I noted earlier, if he were scum and resting his vote on Laguerta even after Oats yelled at him, that may look more suspicious. Perhaps he HAD to vote for Mandalor. However, he'd already suspected Mandalor earlier in the day. So I would not call him a confirmed town, but I still have an overall TOWN read on him. Seems like an honest assessment. If I'm scum though, I'm calling Mocsta town 10/10 because again I think he is kidna making their lives easier. I think you (Sn0) overestimate how much Mocsta by himself damages town. It may be true that he threw one game away, but the forward trajectory he lends town is valuable. He might be in a bit of a rut ATM due to harsh assessment, but as town I will always decide to keep him around until at least day 3 or 4 (not a soft-claim, when I am town I always keep Mocsta around despite our in-fighting). I actually like Zare’s initial post more than your response to it. Nobody called anyone 10/10 town, and Zare’s post is actually a very clear analysis that I can’t find anything to add to. + Show Spoiler + OmniEulogy OE has largely been a voice of reason this game when the last game he seemed a lot more emotional. Part of me worries that he was intending to be reasonable as soon as he becomes mafia, but his contributions have all been town-motivated from my perspective. He has pressured people, defended others fairly well, and done some thorough analysis. I have a slight TOWN read on him. I'd love to see examples etc here but I suppose the post has to be a human length. I can't find real fault in this analysis I would like to see Omni do more for town, as while I read him as 9.5/10 town, he is not pressing anyone particularly strongly. He knows he has some town credit, he shouldn’t just leave it in the bank. + Show Spoiler + Well, being first on Mandalor is a BAD thing, given that mandalor was a mislynch. He also defended laguerta wayyyy hard which seems dubious to me. His voting logic was horrible and he was clearly taking the easy lynch on kush at the start. I'm not sure how this feels town but I suppose "noob" excuses everything? You guys already know I think Trotske is scummy I haven’t checked Trotske as I didn’t see it as a valuable use of my time. Anything I said would be seen as WIFOM, and I couldn’t really see much on his filter to talk about. If there is a wagon forming I will need to go trawl his filter and get informed *grumble*. Sn0 finishes up his analysis with a look at Zare’s voting history, all of which I agree with. I’ll finish with some responses to some of the things Sn0 has said relating to myself: + Show Spoiler + I'm somewhat worried about Spag's LAL drive today actually. As much as I'd like everybody to contribute a serious amount (rofl just 2 pages overnight o.O), I'm not sure we have the time. If there are 3 mafia (or 2 mafia 1 SK), which seems reasonable for a 13 player game, we have exactly 1 free mislynch before GG (unless we have a JK/Doc who has sick reads on mafia/targets). DO you want me to go over my reasons for LAL day two? I don’t want to repeat them, but I have good reasons. I don’t want to further clutter the thread with them, but I honestly think killing lurkers is better scum-hunting for day one and two than going and lynching an active player. It’s meeting more resistance this game, but I think that is because I did not have the opportunity to establish my intentions early on day one. Also, I would like to note that it is unlikely that scum have any number of members but three. The traditional ratio of scum/town is 1/3, which would mean an SK would come out of the town numbers IMO. Taking away one scum also means taking a large percentage of their numbers, but taking one town wouldn't change too quite as much. + Show Spoiler + I mean, I'd love for everybody to be active, but I'm not sure that is gonna work. And spag, I know you are experienced, but that is the most WIFOM argument for Omni being town... My argument for Omni being town is not WIFOM. It is a calculated insight into his motives. I’m not sure exactly how you think it is WIFOM, but I’m not terribly interested. So long as you understand that you’ll meet resistance if you target Omni for a lynch, I don’t care what you think of my reasoning. Omni is currently under no pressure, so let’s not talk about this again until he is. I'm also only on my fourth game, so I'm probably not as experienced as you've assumed. | ||
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