EPTI've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game
I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time.Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI
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Xatalos
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I've already played in 3 games, but I think my skill level still fits a newbie game I'm in military service now, though, so I can't (mostly) post around deadlines and generally my activity will be much lower this time. | ||
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On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here. Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion. We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too. And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole. Goodnight and see ya tomorrow. This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Then there's this: On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules. Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch. On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff. The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why? On September 02 2012 17:53 Kreb wrote: First: GLHF everyone! Morning everyone, this thread got started nicely overnight it seems. About D1 lynching, from what I've guessed so far its indeed a good idea to lynch lurkers. Obviously the chance of getting a scum right on the first day is limited, but generally it keeps the discussion going. You're also not necessarily sacrificing someone important if you're lynching an inactive townie either. Overall it seems like the best of all the options. Gonna have a look through some peoples posting histories later on when we get closer to the deadline and more people has posted to see if theres any chance to find hte slightest read on who could be a scum. (Im gonna have to get used to not editing posts too :p Im way too used doing that!) This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Things like that set my Mafia alarms ringing immediately - especially since the rest of that post is just extremely wishy-washy and fluffy non-content... Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why? On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote: Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then. Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any. At first I thought kushm4sta looked suspicious, but in the end, I really doubt Mafia would go on such a rampage of careless posts - they would much rather hide and wait for good opportunities. Then there's this post that he just posted: On September 02 2012 18:45 kushm4sta wrote: ##vote kreb Post is really empty. If no one else comes along in 36ish hours I would be down with lynching him. Really premature vote, I know but I'm going to sleep for like 15 hours so it's going to be a while. Then he uses 3 sentences to explain why lurkers are bad even though they are not necessarily mafia, a completely obvious idea. So his whole lurker policy is "it's a good idea to lynch lurkers." I have news for you kreb, a total lurker will be modkilled since you have to post at least once a day. The most lurkerish person we have to deal with is 1 post a day. Speaking of 1 post a day, You do realize the deadline is very far? A day is 48 hours not 24. Damn guys town is fine. In 30 hours Kreb is going to check SOME filters for a CHANCE to find the SLIGHTEST read. A very proactive post with good reasoning. kushm4sta is looking strongly town to me at the moment. | ||
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On September 02 2012 21:07 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going. Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him. When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill. It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement. (As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.) | ||
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On September 03 2012 00:04 Kreb wrote: + Show Spoiler + Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why? I dont think anyone is mafia at this point. As I said, barring some mafia making a terrible slip-up and revealing themselves, I dont "think" anything yet. At best, I have a very slight read right now, and I dont expect to get much more of a read before D1 is over. Question to Xatalos regarding this: + Show Spoiler + This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Can you please elaborate on how what I said is another way of saying this? To me, its the opposite. Im actually committing to not bandwagoning by posting something like that (and I believe I have now also fullfilled said commitment, hah), as I say I will do other things to find clues. So please, do elaborate. If I had to vote right now, I'd probably just blow my vote on either of the non-posters or single-posters so far. If I had to vote on someone who has been posting, Xatalos would probably be my choice. But no, that doesnt necessarily mean that I think he (or anyone else) is mafia. At least not yet. It's so very easy to say things like "I'll post something useful closer to the deadline". As Mafia, it's the perfect situation: you can observe the thread and then start pushing someone who would have been lynched anyway. You have now started actually posting, so it doesn't look as bad for you, but the original point still stands. Why would a townie feel the need to make such a promise about his future contributions? That just screams inherent guilt and desire to push the attention to other lurkers. Maybe this is going too deep, but that's how I see the situation. kushm4sta's strong accusation of you was maybe too hasty, but it showed that he was ready to share his thought processes without hesitation. That reads town to me. It wasn't such a bad accusation either, even if it jumped to conclusions too fast. kushm4sta's careless and hasty posts look way more townish than your slight reads and careful stances. Anyways, now I have to return to military service. I'll be back tomorrow with more analysis when our evening break begins. | ||
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I also don't think drazak is Mafia. The typical reaction for pressured Mafia is to get angry, aggressive or desperate, but in my eyes, he has tried to be genuinely helpful - giving away a lot of unnecessary information in case he actually was Mafia. The somewhat frustrated tone in his posts also points more to town than Mafia. Sonic Death Monkey and Kreb looked pretty suspicious based on their first (really fluffy) posts, but their later posts have been much better. I'm willing to wait and see some more from them before I can make a judgement. The ones I'm willing to lynch right now are Cubu, WeeTee and Stutters695. Cubu has posted only fluff, a slight suspicion of drazak and several suggestions to lynch a lurker. All very easy and careful things to say - things that Mafia would like to say in order to blend in and avoid unnecessary attention. WeeTee's first post is pure fluff and the next one is pretty wishy-washy and non-committing. The filter of Stutters695 is full of fluff and non-committing stances. I'm in bit of a hurry already, so I'm going to vote for Cubu. I might be able to come back online a bit later, but not anymore closer to the deadline :/ ##Vote Cubu | ||
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My next vote would go to WeeTee. He has played too carefully and neutrally for it to be inexperienced town play - I'd expect inexperienced town to play recklessly or somehow stupidly, but not trying to avoid attention. That's exactly what WeeTee has achieved so far. He made a wishy-washy "could be Mafia, could be town" statement about Cubu, then proceeded to vote for him anyway (pure bandwagoning). All his other reads are extremely neutral and weak as well. Everything points to him being an inexperienced Mafia player rather than an inexperienced town player. He was just replaced, though, so let's see if imcasey can bring something new to the table... I don't think kville is Mafia, but he is a serious distraction for anything constructive. If there is a Vigilante, kville would make for a good shot. | ||
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Farewell thrawn2112, you will be missed :/ Can't say I'm too surprised about the night kill, though. kushm4sta, you're severely underestimating my contributions. At the moment I have a pretty good case against Sonic Death Monkey and WeeTee (imcasey), and although the case against Sonic Death Monkey is a bit outdated, the case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. I agree that I could have been more active so far, but when I look at my own filter, I've scumhunted and/or pushed the discussion forward in every post. Much more than can be said about most players so far. Now I have to leave, but I'll be able to post again later today. My vote is going for imcasey, as I previously reasoned. I'll be looking at each player's filters later today, though. ##Vote imcasey (Btw, my vote for Cubu was in real hurry as well, so I indeed should have reasoned it better, but I just had no time. I'll get back to it later!) | ||
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I had given up the hope that kville would start contributing, but now he appears with a somewhat sensible post. The problem is, the tone of that post is very different from before. Earlier he was reckless and random, but now he's suddenly very careful and subtle. He calls me "a bit suspicious" based on my streaks of activity (totally out of my control) and asking for him to be Vigi shot (which still seems like the best course of action). It's certainly better than nothing, but a very slight suspicion - and adding nothing else to the discussion - this late in the game made me rethink my read on him. Especially this inconsistency between his old and current posting style makes him a big Mafia suspect in my eyes. Stutters695 has kind of flied under the radar all game. He's been willing to "consolidate" (=bandwagon) on both Cubu and kville, both weak players - no danger of getting into a dangerous argument and thus getting too much attention. Definitely a suspicious lurker. He's a good lynch, but so are imcasey and kville. I'm willing to lynch any of these three players, and I don't have a real favorite right now. I'll have to decide if imcasey actually is the best lynch among them, since they are all almost equally suspicious and imcasey just feels a bit more suspect (based on WeeTee's seriously suspicious approach of giving only neutral and slight town reads behind fluffy walls of text). I don't think I've ever said that WeeTee was much more likely Mafia than Stutters695? They've seemed somewhat equally scummy all this time, in my opinion. Where did this misunderstanding come from? KillingTime has played a pretty solid game so far, I think. I don't see any scummy posts in his filter, expect maybe the slightly fluffy first posts... But that's hardly worth mentioning at this point. Did that satisfy you, Jacob? I'll be reading filters and hopefully coming to some new findings before morning. | ||
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It looks like imcasey started an all-out push against me suddenly. I'm not sure if that's a sign of cornered Mafia or overzealous town, but since it looks like an imcasey lynch isn't going to happen anyway, I'll let this development slide for the moment. Stutters has been making okay-looking posts recently as well. That leaves kville. He's been lurking hardcore and when he has rarely posted, his posts have been unhelpful and weak. Not just weak in terms of quality, but suspiciously motivated: full of useless fluff/spam and careful questioning, but no actual statements or hard (if any) stances towards... anything. As if he's hidden behind a wall of useless text. With that, I leave my vote: ##Unvote ##Vote kville Not sure if I can post anymore in the next hours, but hopefully I'll be able to at least check back at the thread. | ||
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On September 05 2012 06:29 Kreb wrote: My biggest mafia-read on the remaining players would be Xatalos. I think he came Into the thread posting with descent activity initially. But eventually it his activity kinda went down, his vote on Cubu didnt convince me of anything, and I still havent forgotten how he commended Kush on Kushs initial jump on me (Which was largely agreed on was not justified). IM not sure why someone would consider such a post to be "very proactive post with good reasoning". The key word here is "proactive", not "good". kushm4sta's accusation of you wasn't the highest quality post in the thread (although it had the reasonable point of your apparently intentional delaying of contributions), but if you look at the motivation behind kushm4sta's post, it doesn't look like something Mafia would say at all. It was a bold and attention-grabbing move, which leads me to believe that kushm4sta was just going with his gut feeling and not manipulating the thread more subtly (like Mafia tend to do). Combined with his overall reckless style, I put him as probably my best town read at that time. I agree that my low activity and hasty vote for Cubu haven't been helpful, but unfortunately, I just haven't had the time to play properly. As you can see, this lack of proper activity has nearly got me lynched so far... While if I had just pretended to be busy, I could have easily just been slightly more active and so avoided all these cumulative suspicions. Why take such a stupid risk as Mafia? At worst it's a null tell in my opinion. Then kushm4sta... On September 06 2012 08:53 kushm4sta wrote: Someone else I WanT to get people'S thoughts on are drazzak. He is a semi-lurker and all around Bad poster. So losing him would not mean losing good town, unlike a lynch on xatalos. His aTtacK on me seems scummy for various reasons.. possibly defending his scumbuddy by attacking his scumbuddy'S attacker. Also I would like to make a post about the drazzak xatalos connection. If you read the filter xatalos has a HistOry of defending drazzak and calling his posts good when they Really aren't. When i read this i was like ...huh? Drazak'S defense of thrawn'S vote Actually made him seeM more suspicious to me. I would not call him genuinely helpful at all. It seems very out of place reading xatalos' filter that he would be that accepting of drazak. drazak didn't really seem afraid or pressured there. Instead, it looked like he was genuinely trying to help (of course everything can be faked, but I just went with my gut feeling in that situation). Maybe I also felt like he deserved another chance due to his real life circumstances... Some sort of a kindred spirit for me, haha. In more seriousness, drazak's later crusade against you looks townish in my opinion. Again, why make such a bold and risky move as Mafia? It just doesn't make sense. Mafia wants to avoid the "heat" at all costs, not purposefully get into the spotlight with something unusual/unexpected. I really have to get sleeping now, so I'm going to continue tomorrow. Luckily there's still a lot of time until the next deadline (I don't really think I'm going to get night killed with this kind of activity level....). The suspects are now more limited in number, so there's a good chance of finally hitting a Mafia and still turning this game around. | ||
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Looks like Kreb never got the chance to write an answer to my previous post :/ You're here though, kushm4sta. Don't you have anything to say about my reply to your (now obviously false) drazak/Xatalos connection theories? If you want to know something more, just ask. When considering today's lynch, I'm going to just flat-out ignore kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey as lynch candidates. You three have been the most active and contributive posters so far, which also makes you the most likely townies. I'm not saying there can't be Mafia among you, but if we somehow managed to get 4 votes on one of you, the chance of hitting Mafia wouldn't be good. Certainly one of you flipping Mafia would make it much easier to find the remaining two Mafia, but as I just explained, we can't risk an immediate loss for future benefits. That leaves imcasey, Stutters695 and KillingTime. All three have been somewhat lurky or semi-active, but definitely not actively invested in the discussion like kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey have. Since the overall chance of hitting Mafia is 43% at this point, lynching one of you three would give us maybe a 60-90% chance of hitting Mafia and the road to victory (after getting one Mafia, it becomes infinitely easier to find the rest). imcasey Has strong opinions and a careless posting style (which is townish), but doesn't really explain much. It could be that he's just trying to look like a careless newbie town, but not actually putting in the effort to make fake reasonings for his opinions. He also has posts like this: On September 06 2012 20:50 imcasey wrote: Seriously ? I feel i have a solid case here, and not a single one of you have replied to anything of what i wrote. I encourage everyone to read my post again, is it only me that think iv got a pretty solid case here ? I am sure Xatalos is mafia and he will be my vote. What the heck? He is totally sure I'm Mafia after a short and lackluster case against me? This gives me the impression of overdoing the newbie act and trying to look aggressive without backing it up. The situation looks worse for imcasey if we also look at WeeTee's filter. Considering WeeTee's extremely fluffy posting and empty walls of text, imcasey's strong opinions might be an attempt to make people forget about WeeTee's neutral opinions and flip-flopping by acting in a very different way from WeeTee. Stutters695 Day 1 was very non-committing and fluffy for him. Even his vote for Cubu was extremely non-committing: On September 04 2012 05:15 Stutters695 wrote: Anyway unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing. He's skirted issues and essentially said he shouldn't be lynched because other people post less (even though if you tally his posts since the initial first few on policy and the like he's said absolutely nothing of value). By the same token I'd support a lynch on Kville if we can consolidate enough votes on him. There is at least one person who said they probably won't be back before lynch who is on Cubu and we can't trust Kville's vote on himself. Because of that I have to go with Cubu but I'm open to switching if there is support. ##Vote Cubu It looks like his reason for voting Cubu was that there was already a bandwagon going against Cubu, not because Cubu was suspicious. The worst Stutters695 could say about Cubu is "he's provided nothing". Okay, that's anti-town, but not necessarily a Mafia trait. Mafia would want to have at least something in their filter to avoid immediate death. Stutters695's decision to vote for Cubu was so non-committing and weakly reasoned that it looks unlikely he even actually cared about which player would get lynched. Who doesn't care about the lynch target? That's right: Mafia. After that Stutters695 makes a good analysis of some suspicious traits in KillingTime's filter. Even so, he votes for kville (for being useless) and puts KillingTime as his #2. Sometime later I'm suddenly his #2 suspect (up from #4 / #5) without any explanations for this change of opinion: On September 07 2012 09:32 Stutters695 wrote: A little late in the day but if Kville can keep up his more recent posting I'd be willing to switch to Xatalos over him. What? No reasoning, just plainly stating that he'd maybe want to lynch me instead of kville? Same as with the Cubu lynch, Stutters695 doesn't look like he wants to commit to anything. It's as if he's afraid to be linked with any particular lynch. Again, who would have such a motivation: Mafia. KillingTime Looking at KillingTime's filter more closely, I think I've made a mistake. Earlier I thought he's probably town, because he has shared his reads very openly and self-imposedly. However, it's not unusual for Mafia to make big lists about their "reads" (actually just small pieces of opinion) to look like they're contributing - while actually not contributing much at all. KillingTime has shared his reads on other players regularly, but he hasn't actually scumhunted or pushed the discussion forward. Basically, he has been flying under the radar by posting pseudo-contributions to look like he's doing something. That's a strong Mafia motivation. - - - I think it's almost certain that 2-3 of these players are Mafia. The question is, who of them is the most likely Mafia? We must guess correctly or we lose instantly. We also must get 4 votes on one player or we lose instantly. I want to hear your thoughts: kushm4sta, JacobStrangelove and Sonic Death Monkey. 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On September 08 2012 23:33 kushm4sta wrote: @sonic kreb was a vanilla townie it said so when he was killed. I think we should focus on 1 person. We have no certain mafia yet, so relying of associative cases, looking for the scumteam before the scum adds too much complexity, too many variables to our search. I think kiLLing is the most scumlike person and the best lynch. Do people agree or not? I'm not yet completely decided between KillingTime and Stutters695 (looks like an imcasey lynch isn't happening, so I'd narrow it down to these two currently). However, it looks like KillingTime is the general strongest scumread (especially by you and JacobStrangelove, who are the most active and townish posters around), so it would be easiest to consolidate every town vote on KillingTime instead of Stutters695. That doesn't mean we should just all vote for KillingTime and forget about it. There's still the small chance of him being town, and if that's the case, there are only two ways for us to win at this point: A) KillingTime must start posting and convince everyone of his innocence B) we must pressure other players to find Mafia slips, holes in logic... something that would indicate an even better Mafia read than KillingTime at the moment If KillingTime is in fact town, option A is our best bet. Option B isn't looking very easy to achieve, but it's better than just voting for KillingTime and hoping for the best. Mainly I'm thinking about pressuring imcasey and Stutters695 to post more and help us determine the strongest Mafia read. | ||
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KillingTime, unless something changes, you're going to be lynched. If you're actually town, it's crucial that you convince everyone of your own innocence. If you're Mafia, don't bother! Sonic Death Monkey, are you on board with lynching KillingTime? Why / why not? In your latest post you were hesitant because lynching KillingTime would give "limited info", but please forget factors like that. Everything is decided with this lynch, so it has to hit Mafia. Besides, if we lynch KillingTime and he flips Mafia, it would give more info than with imcasey or Stutters695 flipping Mafia (at least KillingTime has been more active than imcasey or Stutters695...). | ||
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On September 09 2012 02:49 KillingTime wrote: Unsurprisingly I think stutters is mafia and he is my best read)- he has made his case against me but if you look at things from my perspective he has actually contributed very little. Before that point he was high on several other people's suspicions and had contributed very little. I think everyone agrees his day one play is awful - but going back I am amazed just how bad it was: + Show Spoiler + His schtick to start is that a low post count is not a sign of a mafia and that: If I was a scum I wouldn't put myself in a position to be lynched by posting once or twice than bouncing for a day when you guys make it so easy to hide without committing to anything. All I'd have to do is post a list of everyone and sheep on townish people and say well he hasn't posted a lot so I'm not sure (which is later exactly how he will accuse me of playing)Then he switches and low post counts and bouncing for the day is exactly what scum would be doing. why has no one called KVille out on the fact that all he's done is avoided a modkill two days ago and posted zip since then? At the very least step up and say that if he doesn't step up his game he's going to die D2 or something in case he really has been busy. Golbat lived til D4 like this last game as a scum doing the exact same thing. He's managed to drop 6 posts in his other game of mafia but he can't spend 5 minutes here? unless Cubu comes back and posts some content I think he's our best lynch today.He's provided nothing. Then there is essentially nothing until my case, at which point he posts a case about me being non-committal and weak - Before this point he has added nothing to the game until he is accused of being mafia. At this point he becomes hyper defensive and answers a lot of questions with what look like good answers - but if you are me at this point in the game and know he is almost certainly scum - they don't look that great to me they explain some of his reasoning as if he was a townie -so what- they don't seriously attempt to atone for his play d1 and I know that his "top 2" scum reads are both town and one of them (kville) he has almost no work to do on it because of how terrible his play was. So after I gave him an easy out he can re-enter the thread and go back to not contributing anything except super obvious stuff about kville and a meaningless conversation w the late appearing kville when most euro players have gone to bed. That's a good point about Stutters695's inconsistency. He started by claiming that Mafia wouldn't take the risk of hardcore lurking, but then proceeds to vote for both Cubu and kville based on their hardcore lurking... Weird holes in logic like that usually point to one direction: Mafia. Do you have anything to say about this, Stutters695? I'm heavily considering lynching Stutters695 instead of KillingTime right now - although that would naturally require everyone to agree. What's also bothering me about Stutters695 is that even though he looks like a skilled player (constantly referencing metagames, guides, player histories etc.) he has basically only bandwagoned on Cubu and kville so far. He hasn't actually pushed the thread into any direction, only followed the flow and remained somewhat under the radar. He made a case against KillingTime but never committed to it in the least. I'd expect much, much more from a town Stutters695 after all those references to past games and such. I'm going to sleep now. Hopefully Stutters695 has responded by tomorrow (that goes for imcasey and Sonic Death Monkey as well). | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On September 09 2012 09:52 Stutters695 wrote: Sorry guys I've been out of town. Posting from my phone again since I have a free moment. I'm be back in full.tomorrow around 5 est. Anyway I'm the one shot big who took the terrible shot on Drazak. It was either mylo or lylo so I figured shooting to confirm myself and Drazak most recent posts before the end of night made me feel like he was the best shot. I'll try to check in before then but I'm pretty busy. The shot claim is in my post two before this (can't quote because I'm on my phone. You'll notice how I have sentences that are like this "word.2ndword" if you look at the post the first letter of each word before the . It spells I shot then the next time it occurs is Drazak. The ones after that were just, me trying to sell it (my phone does do this though which is where I got the idea) I guess everyone agrees that Stutters695 is confirmed town now. That breadcrumb is practically impossible to fake - and he wouldn't even gain almost anything by fakeclaiming at this point, especially compared to the risks. On September 09 2012 06:18 kushm4sta wrote: So the last 2 posts are by killing and xatalos. Both prime suspects. They both attack stutters, who is right now the safest target not including themselves. That seems pretty fishy to me. Stutters does not even try to defend himself. He talks about the current game situation then proceeds to attack stutters. Then xatalos comes in and says now he suspects stutters and not killing. @xatalos why don't you suspect killing now? Not why do you suspect stutters, but why don't you suspect killing? What part of his nonexistent defense convinced you? My suspicions against Stutters695 are obviously obsolete now. However, there are some things in KillingTime's latest posts that make me unsure if he actually is such a strong Mafia read... At least compared to how Stutters695 looked like before his Vigi claim. KillingTime's response to being accused so heavily wasn't really defensive or scared at all, more like honestly trying to help the thread forward. That's the feeling I got from it, anyway... He didn't seem afraid of being lynched at all, but instead trying to avoid the town's loss. Then there's this he posted after Stutters695's Vigi claim: On September 09 2012 17:11 KillingTime wrote: Xatalos's recent posts this weekend have been quite balanced and they read to me like someone who doesn't know who the scum is trying to work it out - rather than scum trying to ensure that the lynch on me (which still looks pretty likley to happen) goes ahead. What motivation would scum KillingTime have to post something like this? Maybe I'm biased, but unless we are both Mafia (which I know not to be true), it's dangerous to limit your options by giving town reads at this stage. On September 09 2012 16:45 JacobStrangelove wrote: Sonic is in both scum team variations. I actually think a lynch on him would be good. It's a can't miss scenario. Think about it. Killing has been sure on his lynchs in a way. While not badwagoning or voting people he doesn't think is scum. While I am still super suspicious of him because he has gone for people the crowd hasn’t and as I see it we can’t miss with a sonic lynch... maybe I am just doubting myself but look at it that way. can we miss with a sonic lynch? No what scum team could there be without sonic? killing xatalos and imcasey. Kush thinks imcasey is townish at least so do I. (like I said reasonings coming later) What do you guys think killing, stutters kush, and xatalos. Sonic and imcasey feel free to chip in as well. I don't really like complicated connection theories. There's no telling what Mafia might think or do, so it all comes down to WIFOM. One big mistake in my previous game as town was to rely on theories about possible Mafia teams... It's much, much harder to figure out a whole Mafia team than to figure out a single Mafia player. Once one Mafia has been found, it's a good time to start thinking about connections, but not now. Mafia could have planned everything to look like they're not connected at all or just partly connected - there's no end to the WIFOM! Lynching someone should be based on their own filter (at least until no other Mafia have been found), not somene else's filter. With that said, I think KillingTime and imcasey are the only decent lynch candidates we have for today. Sonic Death Monkey has been very active and nothing about him screams Mafia to me. Lynching him because of a WIFOMy connection theory just feels stupid, and I'm sure we'd be facepalming hard if he flipped town. It doesn't look like lynching imcasey would gather enough support, so I have to go with KillingTime. ##Vote KillingTime I'm returning to the military today, so I can't be online at the deadline. However, I should still be online for some hours at least. I think looking through imcasey's and Sonic Death Monkey's filters would be the best use of our of time at the moment. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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