EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXIV
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
After catching up with the latest Mafia (XXIII), I feel like we can do a good job on catching the scums using similar policies. Even with warnings, scums always tend to be passive and go for the safer routes. Let's pay close attention to this. Last game, GK wasn't the most lurky player, it wasn't the sole motive for Hopi's last-minute call. It was his unwillingness to take risks, and going for the most obvious cases, and overall passiveness that led to his demise (and a little bit of bad luck, I'll admit.) I will be using similar rationale to try to locate the scummiest players, and hope you guys do the same. Lurkiness will be a factor, and a very strong one, but not the sole factor, let's keep this in mind. @Shady Sands Lynch all lurkers. That's how town caught scum in XXIII. But don't overly rely on this, scum can fake D1 activity pretty well. Observe, observe, and observe. If someone acts strangely, lynch them. This includes checking everyone's metas from previous games. All players here--please list all the games you have played previously, as well as which roles you played, along with filters for your posts. Here are my links: My XXIII Filter, where I was scum My XXII Filter, where I was Mason with Keirathi Regarding meta. As mentioned in earlier mafias, metas are good to keep in mind, but they are weak to base your arguments on. What we want to look at people's earlier games are their reasoning, their ferocity in detecting and attacking suspicious behavior, and their general ability to detect flaws in arguments. Even with equal roles, one player will most likely not post in the same manner or the same tone as in past games. If someone isn't forthcoming with information ("I have a read but I'm not going to share it because of blah") lynch them. If someone isn't actively pushing new cases with their posts, press them on it. Stop OMGUS wars. They're not productive. If two people are OMGUSing each other, tell them to stop, don't just sit there and let them keep yelling at each other. The only ones who win off mass OMGUSing are scum. Agreed, with a small remark on the bolded part. While I wholeheartedly agree we shouldn't be passive, I don't think we should jump too fast to conclusions. In all the mafias I have read, there were many bad townies (and blues), that were unclear and illogical, and ended up dead because of it. In XXIII, Hapahauli identified this very well. However, we should always strive for clarity and activeness. From my readings, these are the two master traits we must have if we want to win as townies. This being said, I will strike with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy these virtues! | ||
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On August 15 2012 10:55 Solarsail wrote: O WOW IM BEING PAID ATTENTION TO ITS ALL I DREAMED OF Let's go with the meta-meta-analysis of tiny comments without adding anything new, that's sure to help. When Shady Sands stops the 'thing' he has going I'll vote for who you're "paying attention to" because that's an objective measure appreciated by town players everywhere. Solarsail, I do not like this "why is everyone against me" attitude of yours. Initially I thought you were genuinely feeling injustice being attacked so early, most likely due to inexperience, but now I feel your tone is a little too insistent and exaggerated. You are not contributing to finding scum, and are playing the "boohoo" card a little too heavily. I have a feeling this is intentional, as a normal and inexperienced person by now should have realized that this would not be the way to go as a townie. On August 15 2012 10:55 Solarsail wrote: Hey Shady this guy is VERY SUSPICIOUS for saying exactly the same as me and I think you should get right on questioning him into the ground. I feel very strongly about this, and will certainly defend it. You, however, don't seem to do so. Why would you say this: the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. And immediately afterwards fill this thread with: Because I've played one game of Mafia in my life, it was on another forum and that happened. But I forgot that "Newbie" in the title means that everyone is a fucking veteran and doesn't need to be told anything. On August 15 2012 10:20 Solarsail wrote: If you don't stop I will vote you. On August 15 2012 10:36 Solarsail wrote: To get you to stop quoting me. It's NOT HELPING ANYONE. Go post about someone else. And many other posts which I will not bother quoting. Please explain, granted you feel strongly about what I've reiterated, how your posts are "on point" and how they are contributing to finding scum. Scum or townie, this play of yours is horrible, and will not help anyone but scum to achieve their goals. | ||
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Why are you so insistent in people posting their filters? Three clicks and I've found yours in XXIII: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=270373 It makes you seem like you are trying too hard to be pro-town... why would a regular townie bother to be this strict about something so easily obtainable? | ||
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First off, I have to say that Shady Sands seems scummy to me. My main arguments are: 1) The way he tries to appear a pro-town cop + Incoherence + Show Spoiler + a) In his first post, he already starts declaring everyone to post their filters from previous game. He, later, pressures people to put it up, multiple times, as if he is already assuming authority. This gets reiterated in later posts, where he urges people to do something that is clearly helpful for analyzing the town. This also implies that he is willing to read these threads and carefully pin out what everyone's meta is. I'm sure you all can agree on this. Why would he insist on something that he is not willing to use? So after this post, I painted in my mind the image of someone who would be very precise with his research. However, he incoherently fails to address some points and forgets some minor details in his writings. He fails to address my first and third posts entirely, which established some small (and I will concess, not too significant) discrepancies in his policy. He forgets to mention his attempt on JHyut in: I explicitly stated that I'm moving to YH because I find his behavior even scummier than Thrawn's or Solar's When, a couple of posts above, he had just made a direct anti-town accusation over him. This may seem small, but it seems odd to me that someone who gives out the appearance of a pro-active researching townie would miss out on this and send a huge amount of one-liners, point fingers and make accusations against 5 different people and not committing to them, constantly letting go and bringing up new cases. To me, he is simply trying to stir discussion in a very mafia-like way. b) His tone of authority. He immediately urges people to post, with less than two hours after the beginning of D1, reminding people to post their introductions. I don't think that is necessary, and is an empty statement which reeks of anxiety. He attempts to tunnel Solar Sail hard, then YH: Great job keeping up the pressure on Solarsail. (...) This is what I want everyone to focus on. Why would Solarsail do this? (...)Current town focus is on YH. He also further channels a sense of security with: Once the whole town has gotten a chance to talk and we have a full day's worth of posts to go off of, then I think we can say for sure who is scum and who isn't. Which is clearly not true, in this game we can never say for sure. 2) His impulse to quickly start being aggressive, and the insistence of this being due to "trying to start some discussion" + Show Spoiler + a) He immediately kicks it off with attacking Solar Sail, with lacking arguments already mentioned by DarthPunk. He dismisses it later as "trying to start some conversation". He also restates this argument numerous times, alongside with his "pro-town approach": + Show Spoiler + (...)If you look near the end of the XXII game, you'll see me doing now what I was doing then--prodding people with questions and keeping the town's posting rhythm extremely high. First, since it's only 12 hours into D1, there's not much material to work off of. That's why most of the posts have consisted of throwing around questions rather than 400 word case posts. Second, evoking responses, at this stage of the game, is critical. Without a solid base of accusations and counter-accusations in the first half of the day to work off of, there's no way to actually mine enough material to reliably identify and tunnel scum on the second half of the day. (...)I stated why I think pushing on Thrawn or Solar when they're not in the thread and can't respond won't generate the sort of discussion that ends up helping the town. (...)But I do want those sorts of filters conveniently laid out, since that does help town. (...)I'm doing this because town benefits when players formally commit to reads and are as explicit as possible. Also, in a few pages, he has already made cases against five different people. This seems too forced, These two points, in addition to DarthPunk's discussion with him, have led me to raise some eyebrows regarding Shady Sands' attitude in this game. He just seems to be trying too hard to look townie, which was one of the first things I caught on, in my third post. My suspicions on Shady Sands is fairly high, and will warrant a FOS should he keep up this boisterous behavior. HOWEVER, he is by far the one who has the most content, and thus the easiest one to find suspicious behavior and inconsistencies. I will not be so quick to judge him as there are many people who are simply not posting, and being very lurky. This is horrible for the town and, in my view, is much more troublesome than my suspicion of Shady Sands. Nevertheless, my biggest scum reading right now is YourHarry. His over-confidence in making bad one-liner posts and his nonsensical argument-lacking statements is truly mafia-like. The only argument he bothers to explain regarding GK's statement on Solar Sail is mediocre at best, since three people were on top of Solar Sail and attacking his emotional and damaging play for most of an entire page, and it is fairly agreeable that this was starting to become non-productive. I also don't like this meta YH's employing. He starts off by acting irreverent and confident, and only when he realizes people are starting to suspect him and attack him is when he starts bothering to add plausible arguments and defenses. He might just not be taking this game seriously, but I certainly sniff scum. ##FOS YourHarry | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. Why would you not share a read you have? And if you aren't willing to share it, why would you even mention that you have a reading you won't share? What could you gain by saying you have a reading that you won't share? I can only speculate that someone else knows what you are referring to, because to me, this make no sense. At all. Please, explain yourself. | ||
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Im referring to the bolded part, where he says (Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). He also makes it a point to mention this earlier on, which seemed to go unnoticed: (...) I feel like the general consensus is that shady was reading too much into Solar's first post, as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak. And along the same lines everyone seems to feel that Solar is now playing a pro-town style be this scummy or not I feel it is something we need to watch for as even if he isn't scum I think it will sidetrack a lot of discussions and hinder the scumhunting in general. On one instance he mentions this when he is talking about YourHarry, and on the other, when he's talking about SolarSail. I took a wild guess in my last post, because I cannot fathom any reasonable explanation of why one would mention "I have a little secret but I'm not telling!" in a mafia game, and not once, but twice. Unless someone can think of a reasonable explanation, I'm calling him out to explain this. | ||
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On August 16 2012 09:04 thrawn2112 wrote: Yes, NH = YH, my bad. So to clarify since you didnt actually answer the question, were you saying that ochrow had a town or a scum read on yourharry? The "as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak" quote is a little ambiguous but I understood it as ochrow being suspicious of shady for shady focusing on solar's first post, but having nothing else to go on he was just leaving it at that, suspicion. What you have accused him of implying is a stretch. I have gone through ochrow's filter and can't a case of him keeping secrets about his read on solar. Could you find/quote/explain that one too? I do not think your case against Ochrow is very convincing and I believe that you are reading too much into his posts. First off, I don't have a case against him. I have inquiries about the contents of both his posts. After reading your reply, however, I understand the room for ambiguity. In his latest post, he uses (ie Oh I have a secret but I won't share). Initially I thought he was misusing the meaning of "ie" and was actually saying he has a secret he won't share. This was my only problem with his post, which is why I called him out. After reading his first post "as to any motives behind that I can't yet speak", I thought he was insisting on saying he knows something he cannot say (which is backed up by my initial though of him saying he had a secret he wouldn't share). However, after reading your post, your interpretation of his ambiguity makes a lot more sense. Thanks for clearing that up. | ||
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However, I now have a strong suspicion against you. 1) MAIN ARGUMENT: Why ArchRun? + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On August 16 2012 07:11 thrawn2112 wrote: FOS Archrun Archrun, you have made 3 posts so far and none of them have had anything directly to do with scumhunting. Can you tell us what you think about shady's claims concerning solar, myself, and newharry? You made an FOS on Archrun by saying that he only had made 3 posts and had no scumhunting. However, you completely ignored Golbat, who only has 2 posts with one-dimensional scumhunting claims, being that the FIRST thing he says is that you are the scummiest player, to which you respond with: Is this something I need to defend myself on? I am not sober right now so I don't think I could type a clear response till I wake up. Going to sleep now, I hope to wake up and see some more posts. And you don't mention it again. This seems to me to be a clear, 100% dodge. You give IRL excuses and forget about it, even hinting that you don't feel the need to answer it. You ignore Golbat not once, but twice. A townie thrawn would definitely bother defending himself to a direct attack such as that, and would try to policy-lynch both Golbat and ArchRun. However, you also didn't call JHyut, who also has 2 posts and even worse in quality than both the mentioned posters. Why mention only ArchRun and not Golbat, who called you out or JHyut? Either this is incredibly sloppy play, or you have a scum partner. If we assume the latter, then I can only think of: 1) You are trying to distract people from Golbat by making other accusations, and completely ignored JHyut. 2) You are trying to bus your partner ArchRun so as to draw away suspicion from yourself in case he comes up red. And, you completely ignored JHyut and Golbat. 3) You don't want to call out three people at once for whatever reason and chose someone other than your scum partner. I find this Highly Suspicious. SUPPORTING ARGUMENTS: 2) Your initial posts + Show Spoiler + You keep playing the new card, and adding newbie questions that will show other people that you are not very good at this game: + Show Spoiler + All snippets: seeing as this is my first mafia game, how much should i prepare? i'm already planning on reading as many guides as i can but should i read through completed mafia games as well? from what i've read in the other games your post count is something everyone really pays attention to how long do these generally take to start? in the rules where it says 'pms are not allowed in this game' does that mean we aren't allowed to send a tl pm to any other player? if so are there any other 'allowed' means of communication between 2 or more players outside of this thread? ok thanks. that's what i assumed was true but i just wanted to confirm it so i dont accidentally break any rules or miss out on a part of the game that i was assuming was not allowed. Does anyone have experience playing in a game where a serial killer was a possible role? If there did end up being a serial killer, how big a role did they play and how high would you rate the importance and achieveability of sniffing them out early? In other words, would it be a worthwhile use of the town's time and investigation to try to figure out who, if anyone, is the serial killer? I can see how it would be very important to find out who is SK early on, but I also can see how it might be way more difficult than figuring out who is mafia, and thus not a good use of time. One distinction between the serial killer and the mafia is that the mafia are in communication and will be working together while the serial killer is separated from both town and mafia. Any player who is suspected to be not of town affiliation could either be mafia or SK, so while in either case they are a good target for lynching, having knowledge of their actual role would be way more valuable than just an uninformed hit on a supposed non-town player. If there isn't an SK, then this line of discussion is a complete waste of time and we would be doing the mafia's job for them, which is why I asked if anyone has experience in games with an SK so that we all can get a better idea of what the risk/reward anaylsis should be on determining whether or not and when to focus on a potential SK. Concerning shady sand's post, this is my first game so I have no previous history to reference. I am not really worried, but am trying to learn from other people's experiences if there is any reason to worry. I thought I was pretty clear that I was undecided on the importance of SK, and that if SK is unimportant in D1 it's a complete waste of time to worry about it. My current opinion is that it is something to worry about, but not on D1. Therefore I'm not going to continue posting about it until something happens along the lines of way too many unexplained town deaths. Sorry for the bother, but could you describe what OMGUS means? It's one of the several expressions I see used in the mafia forums of which I have no idea what they mean. This by itself is basically meaningless, but granted that my suspicions in my main argument rely on you "forgetting (or pretending to) people", I can only think that your initial posts were paving the ground for you to not be taken seriously and not have such motives questioned. 3) Your lack of reading + Show Spoiler + I've noticed that you have skipped on a few details due to not reading previous posts. a) First instance, from the OP: If there is any sort of issue, you are unsure about some mechanic, or you are just wondering if your devilish scheme is even allowed, feel free to PM me, or ask in-thread with green text. Don't feel shy; these games are meant to be a place to learn and be open. Yet you ask all your questions normally, so you didn't read this or you pretend you don't know this. b) Second instance, questioning Solar: On August 15 2012 11:09 thrawn2112 wrote: What did you two say that was "exactly the same?" It was fairly clear what he meant, since he quoted the specific bolded part. c) Third instance, your latest discussion with me. Confusing YH with NH, heavily misinterpreting my quote saying that "I had a case", and then making another post once I had already retracted my inquiries on Ochrow (you might have been sniped, I don't know). With these arguments, I can conclude that either your play is very very sloppy, or you are trying to paint a picture of yourself as being completely oblivious to the gameplay of Mafia, so as to divert attention and giving a plausible explanation for these "slips" I mentioned. For now, I stay strongly opposed to having three extremely lurky players, and a fairly lurky one (Stutters695). I am inclined to dismiss you as just being sloppy, because my deepest concern is the very VERY high level of lurkyness in this town. Nevertheless, ##FoS thrawn2112 @Shady Sands Why have you suddenly disappeared? Why haven't you answered my post against you? We should start discussing our lynch candidates. I am inclined to lynch a lurker on day one. This will: 1) Give us a good chance of catching scum. During at least the last 3 newbie games, there was always a lurking scum or more. With 3 lurkers, we have a 1/3 chance of hitting the mark, instead of 1/4 (assuming that the lack of discussion in D1 will give us a random lynch) 2) Make the other lurkers be more active. 3) Give participial players more time to defend themselves. Is this agreeable? | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
bah, 1/4 ~ 3/13 =p | ||
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1) thrawn2112 2) YourHarry 3) Shady Sands Due to all of my previous reasoning, and the fact that none of them have given me reason to retract my suspicions. However, I am very firm on my decision to execute lynchers. Day one is filled with circumstantial evidence and is very easy to make wrong conclusions, and the probability of a miss-lynch is very high. What we DO know for CERTAIN is that lurkers are way more prejudicial to the town, because we cannot have decent reads on them. This is a game of reasoning and deduction, but for that, we need DATA, INFORMATION, which lurkers fail to provide. For this first day, since I don't think any of the suspicions so far are conclusive, I will vote for a lurker. We have Golbat , Stutters, and JHuyt who have been balls-out lurkers. I say we should lynch one of those. Now, speaking for myself, how will I choose? Let's take a brief look at their history: Golbat Has said nothing. Has two posts. He is lurker number one. He briefly accused thrawn with little evidence, threw some dirt on Shady, YourHarry and Solar. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, we will not have any new leads from that information, but will be down a useless townie. If we lynch him and he turns out scum, that will be great for us, but we will still have no leads. His accusations could just as easily be his scum buddies due to the fact that he hasn't done any sort of analysis on anybody. I would go even so far as to think that he will be mod-killed, due to not voting. If he suddenly posts now, we will have VERY strong reason to lynch him the next day, because posting some crap early on and disappearing until close to the deadline is a Strong Strong indicator of SCUM. Onward. Stutters He begins by agreeing that the discussion regarding SK is a waste of time he doesn't raise suspicion, doesn't do any investigative move, just says that and goes on to tell Solar to post better. Then he makes a longer post, telling Solar once again to stop with the trolling (which is fine, he was getting annoying), and making a small, non-compromising case against Shady. States some facts, then moves on, without taking an aggressive stance. Asks why getting filters is necessary (I had already mentioned this...). And just like that, he's gone. Basically he is on the same boat as Golbat. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, we will have lynched a semi-useless townie. If we lynch him and he turns out scum, great! But still no real info. So that leaves... JHyut Who begins with similar obvious cases against Solar, Shady, and YourHarry. Escapes having to post anything else saying "I'm sorry, but I don't think I can be of any more use until new evidence is posted.". Then goes on to FOS thrawn, not using any original evidence. Without explaining anything, says that Archrun was not scum, says that thrawn is not scum, then votes for Shady Sands, without explaining, and just like that he's gone. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, then thrawn will have some weight off his shoulders. He would have ignored accusing a greenie based on his lack of observation. Golbat will look about the same, because he was ignored alongside an innocent and we may figure something out on ArchRun as well (I still have to read more carefully his posts). If we lynch him and he turns out scum, Archrun and thrawn2112 will not look so good. He INSTANTLY dropped his suspicion of both these players, and this is resonated by my case against Thrawn, where I note a fishy situation between thrawn and either golbat,archrun and/or jhuyt. Here is a snippet so you guys don't have to go all the way back: + Show Spoiler + You made an FOS on Archrun by saying that he only had made 3 posts and had no scumhunting. However, you completely ignored Golbat, who only has 2 posts with one-dimensional scumhunting claims, being that the FIRST thing he says is that you are the scummiest player, to which you respond with: Is this something I need to defend myself on? I am not sober right now so I don't think I could type a clear response till I wake up. Going to sleep now, I hope to wake up and see some more posts. And you don't mention it again. This seems to me to be a clear, 100% dodge. You give IRL excuses and forget about it, even hinting that you don't feel the need to answer it. You ignore Golbat not once, but twice. A townie thrawn would definitely bother defending himself to a direct attack such as that, and would try to policy-lynch both Golbat and ArchRun. However, you also didn't call JHyut, who also has 2 posts and even worse in quality than both the mentioned posters. Why mention only ArchRun and not Golbat, who called you out or JHyut? Either this is incredibly sloppy play, or you have a scum partner. If we assume the latter, then I can only think of: 1) You are trying to distract people from Golbat by making other accusations, and completely ignored JHyut. 2) You are trying to bus your partner ArchRun so as to draw away suspicion from yourself in case he comes up red. And, you completely ignored JHyut and Golbat. 3) You don't want to call out three people at once for whatever reason and chose someone other than your scum partner. I find this Highly Suspicious. That being said, I think right now the general lurkyness of JHuyt + the lack of quality of his posts + this weird switch of votes + his affiliation with Golbat and the amount of information we can make out if he is lynched, I will go with ##Vote JHuyt PS: I noticed I got sniped. Dangerous timing there, Stutters. I will not bother changing my post, because I have to head out, but I think I will be able to log on near the deadline. Hope I sounded reasonable enough. Great job increasing the discussion in this eery end of D1! | ||
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**eerie | ||
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Your death will not be in vain! I will make sure your death will catch some mudblood scum! Thank you for your attempt, Shady Sands! May you rest in peace. I will think hard on the situation, and see what we can learn from his lynch. | ||
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Am catching up atm, should be hearing from me soon. I already read the whole thread, and now will start going more carefully through the filters, especially thrawn's, who was already my top suspect before Shady's lynch and now just seems to be in an even worse spot. I don't think I'll bother with shady's filter because he was just attacking everyone left and right, with few good points. However, Archrun's filter and especially mkfuba's filter should provide more information. Assuming that the vigi shot Archrun (doesn't make sense for vigi to shoot mkf), why did mkfuba get shot? This topic is generally overlooked, but I don't think we should ignore the reasoning behind mafia's NK. I'll see what I can find out, one sec guys! | ||
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Please take some time to read this post as it took quite a while to write and has many ideas in it. Reasoning behind mkfuba07's NK + Show Spoiler + Only major things that mkfuba did were defend solar, and defend thrawn2112. His mostly significant point about his defense of thrawn was: I don't see any real evidence of Thrawn and Ochrow coordinating their posts. The entire thing feels contrived to me. This makes me feel that this bandwagon that's started on Thrawn is at least partially supported by scums. This, in turn, gives me an even stronger townie read on Thrawn. However, the date of this post is August 17, at 3:30. Ochrows "lie", came at August 17, at 5:54. Then, later, at 8:58 of the same day, he says: I still believe that Thrawn would be a mislynch. Too much of his play has a townie feel to me. As for Shady... so much of his evidence against Thrawn feels so inadequate and contrived to me... Unfortunately, I'm now at a point where I have to decide between switching to someone I've made it clear I feel is town, and keeping my vote on someone who has tunneled that person for most of the game. Perhaps he didn't read in too much into Ochrow's post, granted that he was townie. So this gives me two options on the NK: 1) Some scum leading the thrawn2112 bandwagon wanted him dead so as to successfully lynch thrawn, who is indeed innocent. This is kinda weird, because there are many innocents, and blue's are not the most talkative ones, they don't like to stick out. No reason to think thrawn was a blue, in my opinion. I don't find this very likely, unless the whole scum team had some weirdass reason to think thrawn was blue, which I just don't find plausible. 2) Scum thrawn, thinking that this would be a possibility, killed mkfuba to relieve some pressure off of him. For this to happen however, he would have to be a very unobservant player and not note how weird this would be. But what's great about this is that thrawn ADMITS he is a blue player. So, according to him, he is a blue player that sticks his neck out and draws suspicion to himself. I find this much more likely. (option two, not the fact that he's vigi) 3) Random blue-sniping attempt. I don't think mkfuba showed some display of being blue though. He stick his neck out to resist the horde attempting to bandwagon thrawn, and sticks with it. A blue would just not want to draw that kind of attention. I don't find this likely. Reasoning behind ArchRun's NK + Show Spoiler + This here is what irks me. Either we have a serial killer, who wanted ArchRun dead, which I don't buy... I can't think of a reason for a SK to go after him. So, for me, it's either a vigi kill or a Mafia kill. 1) vigi kill? If thrawn is indeed vigi, it would make sense for him to make a vigi kill on Archrun. Being that the whole town is now onto him, killing someone he was sure was scum would make sense. What doesn't make sense, however, is how he could have been so sure that arch is scum, and WHY would he waste his ONLY vigi shot based on lame D1 speculations. I find this unlikely 2) mafia kill? If thrawn were mafia here, killing archrun would be outright stupid. The real mafia, imo, would also have no reason I can fathom to kill Archrun. He does not fit the profile of a blue, and he had some fire on him. He was in the thrawn bandwagon, so this just doesn't make sense. I find this VERY unlikely goodkarma's major post + Show Spoiler + He connects Thrawn and Ochrow with evidence on a shared QT. First, I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention the evidence that both Thrawn and Ochrow are sharing a QT. Shady has brought this up before, and so have I, but I don’t feel everyone has looked back on their filters to determine how obvious this is. Listed below, for your reference are the two posts that show this most clearly. Notice the timestamps, as they are identical. There is zero chance that one came in and later “copied” the other: SO WHAT? This is a horrible argument. You should know how long it takes to write posts, and mafia have nothing to gain by posting two equal ideas at the same time. You are thinking they both decided at the same time to post the same things so people would follow them? Now look also at the nature of the posts. What is discussed is almost identical. Both talk about Solarsail, and both conclude that he is not currently suspicious. Both also conclude that YourHarry is town. This point should bring up red flags on everyone’s radars, as this is simply not the prevailing viewpoint of the thread at the time, and they both give pretty weak reasoning for their conclusion. Both also discuss policy lurker lynching. Here, Ochrow FoS’s Archrun (in the same post), and thrawn FoS’s Archrun about two hours later. What are the odds that that many different topics were discussed by two people randomly at the exact same time without the help of a QT? I’d say pretty much none. I partially agree. SolarSail's defense seems reasonable, as does policy lynching. But the bit on YourHarry is just ridiculous. suddenly, out of the blue, YourHarry gives off a "town feel"? Their argument is based that YH's theory on gk and solar being masons makes sense, which, as I've stated earlier, I disagree, I think it's a stupid point which does not help (GK also agrees on this weakness later on in the post). The FOS on ArchRun is also equally suspicious. As I've stated before, there were equally suspicious lurkers, and Thrawn's arguments that "ArchRun's text was too suspicious" is even worse. ArchRun had three posts until that time, let's see what they were: + Show Spoiler + This is my first time playing, but I did read XXIII in preparation for this game and the policy seemed effective, because even if the scum is being active everyone has a a good sample of posts to analyze and hopefully make more accurate reads. As a Townee, I promote any policy that helps us catch scum, but we must back accusation up with evidence (which this policy should provided) and reason. On August 15 2012 10:20 Archrun wrote: To follow that point up, I feel like the scum threat is a lot stronger than SK because they are organized and know who to attack. A SK in my eyes is like a scum with only one person in it that can attack other scums independently. So if any exist in this game they shouldn't become an issue until later in the game. On August 15 2012 10:44 Archrun wrote: I think that the loss of articulation is inherent with any emotionally charged post, because it is harder to be swayed by emotional appeals when arguments are in written format and there is sufficient time to think about them. I don't think this point by thrawn has anything to do with knowing Solarsails meta. All he does is talk sillyness and make useless posts. Like I've said, Golbat and JHuyt ALSO makes useless posts. The only difference, is that Golbat and JHuyt bother making slight accusations, sheeping the lame and obvious arguments other people, especially Shady Sands, were also using (i.e. Solar Sail is not helping, YourHarry posts weird, yata yata). To me, however, those are equally useless posts, and you have to indeed be very very biased (or very very bad) to think the margin between what ArchRun was posting and what the other lurkers were posting would suffice to tunnel Archrun and not the other two. As you can see, he claims that Thrawn “copies him.” This is literally impossible as their post that was similar was posted at the exact same time. In other words, Ochrow is lying. He also makes a few interesting points here about how YourHarry is still not scum, and also some wishy-washy stuff (that I have snipped out for clarity… I meant to put it back in but I have 8 mins to post this look at time stamp you can find the rest sorry guys…) about how he doesn’t think Shady is scum but wouldn’t mind voting him anyway. He also comments on a few lurkers, which is a pretty value-less thing that is easy for scum to do. In other words, he is not actively involved in the scum hunting. But let me say this again, as it’s the most damning evidence against Ochrow: OCHROW LIED TO US!!!!!!!!! Another very good point. I've read before to see if there was any indication of Ochrow's point of view before that 5:27 post, and there wasn't. He either quickly dismissed saying the most obvious thing that came to mind, or this was a scumslip. I'd like to hear what he has to say, regarding this careless mistake. A townie Ochrow might have also made that mistake, by being careless, but like you said, the coincidence between him and thrawn is just too much. There is no doubt in my mind at this point that both Ochrow and Thrawn are scum. They associated with each other far too closely to not have shared a QT. On top of that instead of coming clean about it (or just not saying anything), as I’d suspect masons would, they turn around and lie about it to try to cover it up! f before now you were to tell me I could get all three scum pegged in one day like this, I would never have believed you. With this evidence, I am confident thrawn, Ochrow, and YourHarry are all but “confirmed scum.” GG. Watch out buddy. This could very easily be considered a scumslip. Since I agree that your evidence is pretty strong, I will just interpret this as an use of expression. But only scum can say something like that for certain. Be careful when saying stuff like this... My take on thrawn2112's situation My certain conclusion, based on the rest of this post is this: By golly, thrawn is a very very VERY bad player. If you read my analysis on the NK's and on GK's post, you'll see that no matter if he is scum or vigi or just regular townie, he is playing this very badly. I just can't pinpoint with extreme certainty whether he is a very bad scum or a very bad townie. I have a very strong inclination on a bad scum, because a scum thrawn who would kill mkfuba to try to escape in some WIFOM manner would seem to me less stupid than a Vigi thrawn, who with already so much pressure on him (before the nk i mean), would waste his ONLY bullet on such a CRAPPY hunch with so LITTLE evidence. What I'm going to do now is read more carefully the DarthPunk x Thrawn exchange, which seemed to me a little edgy, and will see what sort of conclusions can come from this with a thrawn lynch. I haven't gone through DarthPunk's filter yet and I try to see if his conviction on thrawn is as clear as goodkarma's. First, however, I will update my D1 suspicions on YourHarry, because his posting, however more frequent and more detailed, still seems to be filled with trashy talk and crappy arguments. Anyways, due to what I have stated earlier, I think the best option right now is: ##Vote thrawn2112 | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
When I say: Watch out buddy. This could very easily be considered a scumslip. Since I agree that your evidence is pretty strong, I will just interpret this as an use of expression. But only scum can say something like that for certain. Be careful when saying stuff like this... Understand, of course, that when I say "something like that", I mean saying that only scum can have so much conviction in a making a remark on peoples allegiances. Not that they are true, but I refer more to the tone in which it is said. | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
This part (which I quoted from goodkarma's case against you... if you want to even begin to defend yourself, at LEAST read the main accusations against you carefully...): As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. He said you copied what he said, when your post was simultaneous to his. Unless Ochrow, before 3:57, mentioned or hinted at your ideas, that statement is completely unjustified and untrue. How would you have copied him if there was nothing to copy from? | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
@Goodkarma What? From this: (...)I'd be happy to see any of them lynched as I'm certain they're all scum. This: (...)With this evidence, I am confident thrawn, Ochrow, and YourHarry are all but “confirmed scum.” GG. and this: (...)A cornered scum would have no problem lying about his role to get out of a lynch, and that's what I see is the case with Thrawn. You go to this: On August 19 2012 07:45 goodkarma wrote: Regarding Thrawn: I know that now about half of us have voted for him, but consider this: as of now he has provided both a reasonable defense and his own scum reads. While some may feel he has made "scumslips" in his choice of words, remember that Shady was guilty of the same thing and he was town. What I'm looking for is a town motivation, which speaks far louder than any one "scumslip." "Scumlips," quite honestly, can be made by town or scum. When I look at Thrawn's most recent play today, he started off quite poorly. He made some WIFOM argument about why he would never kill Mkfuba as scum, and used Mkfuba's defense of him in place of any real defense of his own. However, since then, he has made a post that directly addresses everything I brought up about him in my case post. He claims that the post timing for both him and Ochrow I pointed out is merely coincidence. While I still find that a little hard to believe, I'm looking at his actions too. He has made constructive, pro-town posts even when facing the strong possibility of a lynch. He has presented his own case against YourHarry, and has encouraged others to present their own reasonings behind their posts and not sheep behind a lynch bandwaggon. And then there's the matter of the vigi claim. While I stand by what I've said about a vigi claim being just as plausible for a scum to make, and that there's no certain way of knowing if his claim is true outside of a lynch, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here. It is plausible he vigi killed Archrun. It would be consistent with his actions. An important component of my case against him is that I believe him and Ochrow have a shared QT, and that their views are eerily similar as though aligned via said QT. If either Ochrow or Thrawn flips red, it gives my "shared QT" case point that much more validity, but I'm not willing to send one possibly innocent player to death just to see if my case is right. First and foremost, we hunt scum, and thrawn's most recent actions feel significantly pro-town to me. As it is, they're both unflipped, and, imho this makes this case point much weaker, and my case in general not the "sure-fire thing" I claimed it to be at the time. I was super-excited with my findings at the time, as putting everything together you get a very neat theory going where everything seems to nicely fit together. But players often will post on similar things at the same time, and that's plausibly the case with Thrawn and Ochrow. However, I do still feel that Ochrow and Thrawn posted so much that was similar at the exact same time my case can't be completely disregarded, and these two individuals should be looked at with extra suspicion. I definitely got a little ahead of myself, but going forward, as always, I'm going to vote for the player who I feel has the strongest scum read. If my shared QT case is to be true, Ochrow is just as important a component. He is my focus for the time being. While Thrawn still could be scum, I can't help but feel that we could be losing a strong town presence if he is telling the truth with his vigi claim. With Ochrow, on the other hand, we would lose pretty much nothing (as I will be discussing shortly). For now: ##Unvote Thrawn Regarding Ochrow: I've already presented much of my case against him, and I'm still waiting for his response. But let's look past that for now, and assume he's just another player that we need to get a read on. Looking through his filter, the first thing you'll see is that it's rather sparse. The second thing you'll see is he hasn't really had a firm stance on anyone. He even tries to defend this.: Even if my shared QT case point doesn't hold water, looking at Ochrow's actions, he is distinctly scummy. He is pretty lurky, and hasn't stuck his neck out on any case argument, spending much of his efforts on a safe "policy lurker vote" against Archrun. His favorite stance on others is pretty much a wishy-washy "I don't know." My read on him is he's a lurky scum with no interest in actively participating in scum-hunting. This alone is enough merit to earn my vote. That his flip will provide valuable information on my shared QT case point is an added bonus. ##Vote: Ochrow So I wonder, you say that thrawn has made great pro-town posts, made cases against YourHarry, and encourage everyone to be good little townies? Can you be more specific as to what made you make this HUGE leap of faith? Because, as far as I read, thrawn barely read MY attack on him, didn't respond to any of my major points and just seems elusive with his posting. Perhaps you wanted to bus your scum partner just a little bit, then changed your mind as soon as you saw it was going to get him lynched? Also, wasn't your "certainty" based on the fact that thrawn and ochrwo were scum? If you deem it unjustified, it seems very very weird that you still consider ochrow (now obvious) scum. Now your main line is that thrawn has proved himself town, obvious hasn't, and even though in your theory they were intrinsically connected, one of the is all good, and the other isn't? This is a typical inconsistency found in scums, and to me it can't be so simply ignored. @thrawn2112 Oh. Great. The first part was to explain why I voted for shady. Look at that bolded part in context with the rest of the sentence and it makes sense. The second part was based on the true statement that archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. It isn't good for town to limit investigations to only two people, and because I accidentally mislynched a green player (shady) I realized that I was being too focused on my reads and not bothering to give a hard enough look at other players. So now you come with: First I want to point out that Jhyut only has 9 posts, and has not posted in the last 24 hours. That's not damming evidence but it is pretty shady. I'm going to quote his posts and bold the parts I want to talk about. I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks of how I'm interpreting his posts because I may just be biased against him because of his low post count. Remember this? We should start discussing our lynch candidates. I am inclined to lynch a lurker on day one. This will: 1) Give us a good chance of catching scum. During at least the last 3 newbie games, there was always a lurking scum or more. With 3 lurkers, we have a 1/3 chance of hitting the mark, instead of 1/4 (assuming that the lack of discussion in D1 will give us a random lynch) 2) Make the other lurkers be more active. 3) Give participial players more time to defend themselves. Is this agreeable? And this: On August 17 2012 05:14 Z-BosoN wrote: My current lists of suspects stands as: 1) thrawn2112 2) YourHarry 3) Shady Sands Due to all of my previous reasoning, and the fact that none of them have given me reason to retract my suspicions. However, I am very firm on my decision to execute lynchers. Day one is filled with circumstantial evidence and is very easy to make wrong conclusions, and the probability of a miss-lynch is very high. What we DO know for CERTAIN is that lurkers are way more prejudicial to the town, because we cannot have decent reads on them. This is a game of reasoning and deduction, but for that, we need DATA, INFORMATION, which lurkers fail to provide. For this first day, since I don't think any of the suspicions so far are conclusive, I will vote for a lurker. We have Golbat , Stutters, and JHuyt who have been balls-out lurkers. I say we should lynch one of those. Now, speaking for myself, how will I choose? Let's take a brief look at their history: Golbat Has said nothing. Has two posts. He is lurker number one. He briefly accused thrawn with little evidence, threw some dirt on Shady, YourHarry and Solar. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, we will not have any new leads from that information, but will be down a useless townie. If we lynch him and he turns out scum, that will be great for us, but we will still have no leads. His accusations could just as easily be his scum buddies due to the fact that he hasn't done any sort of analysis on anybody. I would go even so far as to think that he will be mod-killed, due to not voting. If he suddenly posts now, we will have VERY strong reason to lynch him the next day, because posting some crap early on and disappearing until close to the deadline is a Strong Strong indicator of SCUM. Onward. Stutters He begins by agreeing that the discussion regarding SK is a waste of time he doesn't raise suspicion, doesn't do any investigative move, just says that and goes on to tell Solar to post better. Then he makes a longer post, telling Solar once again to stop with the trolling (which is fine, he was getting annoying), and making a small, non-compromising case against Shady. States some facts, then moves on, without taking an aggressive stance. Asks why getting filters is necessary (I had already mentioned this...). And just like that, he's gone. Basically he is on the same boat as Golbat. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, we will have lynched a semi-useless townie. If we lynch him and he turns out scum, great! But still no real info. So that leaves... JHyut Who begins with similar obvious cases against Solar, Shady, and YourHarry. Escapes having to post anything else saying "I'm sorry, but I don't think I can be of any more use until new evidence is posted.". Then goes on to FOS thrawn, not using any original evidence. Without explaining anything, says that Archrun was not scum, says that thrawn is not scum, then votes for Shady Sands, without explaining, and just like that he's gone. If we lynch him and he turns out townie, then thrawn will have some weight off his shoulders. He would have ignored accusing a greenie based on his lack of observation. Golbat will look about the same, because he was ignored alongside an innocent and we may figure something out on ArchRun as well (I still have to read more carefully his posts). If we lynch him and he turns out scum, Archrun and thrawn2112 will not look so good. He INSTANTLY dropped his suspicion of both these players, and this is resonated by my case against Thrawn, where I note a fishy situation between thrawn and either golbat,archrun and/or jhuyt. Here is a snippet so you guys don't have to go all the way back: + Show Spoiler + You made an FOS on Archrun by saying that he only had made 3 posts and had no scumhunting. However, you completely ignored Golbat, who only has 2 posts with one-dimensional scumhunting claims, being that the FIRST thing he says is that you are the scummiest player, to which you respond with: Is this something I need to defend myself on? I am not sober right now so I don't think I could type a clear response till I wake up. Going to sleep now, I hope to wake up and see some more posts. And you don't mention it again. This seems to me to be a clear, 100% dodge. You give IRL excuses and forget about it, even hinting that you don't feel the need to answer it. You ignore Golbat not once, but twice. A townie thrawn would definitely bother defending himself to a direct attack such as that, and would try to policy-lynch both Golbat and ArchRun. However, you also didn't call JHyut, who also has 2 posts and even worse in quality than both the mentioned posters. Why mention only ArchRun and not Golbat, who called you out or JHyut? Either this is incredibly sloppy play, or you have a scum partner. If we assume the latter, then I can only think of: 1) You are trying to distract people from Golbat by making other accusations, and completely ignored JHyut. 2) You are trying to bus your partner ArchRun so as to draw away suspicion from yourself in case he comes up red. And, you completely ignored JHyut and Golbat. 3) You don't want to call out three people at once for whatever reason and chose someone other than your scum partner. I find this Highly Suspicious. That being said, I think right now the general lurkyness of JHuyt + the lack of quality of his posts + this weird switch of votes + his affiliation with Golbat and the amount of information we can make out if he is lynched, I will go with ##Vote JHuyt PS: I noticed I got sniped. Dangerous timing there, Stutters. I will not bother changing my post, because I have to head out, but I think I will be able to log on near the deadline. Hope I sounded reasonable enough. Great job increasing the discussion in this eery end of D1! Of course, NOW that you have a boulder on your shoulders, you suddenly start playing the pro-townie let's lynch lurkers role, because you can't find any other active townie to go ahead and try to lynch. As you have been doing, you completely IGNORED my reasoning as to why a Jhuyt lynch would have been best for town. When there was shady sands, who was a completely active player who was even less suspicious than you are now, you didn't even hesitate to join his bandwagon, with weakass arguments: On August 17 2012 00:00 thrawn2112 wrote: Just to show you how absurd of an argument this is, I'd like to point something out. You said that you saw both ochrow and I, within 30 minutes of each other were "trying to get a train on archrun going." Well, you and Archrun both voted against me within 3 minutes. If I use the reasoning you used to link me with ochrow as both scum, I must also link you with Archrun as scum. Really shady, your arguments against me have been quite a stretch, and over and over you have ignored my responses to your accusations. I do not think that if you are thoroughly reading my posts that you would still have the belief that I am scum. I will go over our conversation and try to figure out if I have been unclear in my responses to you, and I urge you to go through the conversation to see if you might have missed out on what I was trying to say. If we can't figure this out, then my only options are to think that you are scum and trying to set me up, or that you are town and making weak reads and terrible arguments. I think it is the former so I am going to vote for you. If it is the latter, I won't feel TOO bad about lynching a town player who makes bad arguments. Whatever happened to your campaign to get everyone posting their previous game filters? Based on what you have done since demanding filters from everyone, I don't see a pro-town motive for your request. Your reasoning in asking for them was that having filters can be very useful in getting reads on people's posts that are made in specific circumstances, such as what a player usually acts like when accused of being scum. After asking for everyone's filters, you haven't even brought the subject back up. What was the point of asking in the first place if you are not going to follow through with analysis? If you wanted to view the filters for your own sole benefit, it would have been way easier for you to just find the filters yourself. If you wanted the group to view the filters so that the town can make better reads, then why haven't you provided any analysis of a player's posting within this game to their posting within previous games? I can't figure out why you asked from them in the first place, which leads me to the conclusion that your filter requests were fluff. ##Vote Shady Sands Which is in DIRECT contradition to your so called stance on policy: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. My conclusion is this, thrawn is mafia, he's shown so much evidence on and on, and he's simply trying to squirm his way out. And until goodkarma can better convince me of why he suddenly had a enourmous change of heart, ##FOS goodkarma | ||
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