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Newbie Mini Mafia V
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
/in | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=301748 | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
One question to you Trackdoor, you say "Don't be afraid to accuse anyone", but we really don't know ANYTHING right now. I'd like to try to stick to the facts/logic that are presented. Your post sounds really bold for being a first post. I'm not saying there is anything particularly scummy about that.. just something I noticed! | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
On March 01 2012 12:38 gunman103 wrote: I agree. However, we will lose our number advantage more rapidly if we do lynch someone just for the sake of lynching. If there's no potential for information to be gained by lynching him, then we should not do so. I agree Gunman. I oppose any Random lynching.. I’d rather only do it for a reason. I’m going to touch a bit on this on my other posts… I’m finding some things a bit troubling with some of the other posters. You take this position again later on in the posts- and I like it. Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction…. Sufficiency- your posts REALLY made me think that you’re wanting to random lynch so that scum can get a 2 for 1. You make it sound like we’re in a very urgent situation- and I don’t see it that way. Also- what does FoS stand for? I’m assuming its an indication that you think gunman is scum because he doesn’t want to kill anyone off. I’m not thinking Gunman is being suspicious- but rather doesn’t want to sacrifice a townie. As I discussed a bit above. And wow, Sufficiency, you just keep accusing people with literally nothing to go on…. Tiystus- you’re in the same boat as Sufficiency- and it also makes me suspicious… Lastly friedchicken is also in the bandwagon… So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious…. Just to be clear, I'm against a completely Random Lynch. But I would be up for finding out if any of those 3 are mafia. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Also, if anyone is curious, our current lurkers are Mementoss, Rainmaker, Pablols and Beorn. So I'd be really interested to hear what you guys have to say about our current discussion as well. Lastly, I'd like Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency to explain to me the advantages of a Random Lynch and how doing so would be in the town's best interest. Keeping in mind we have a 75% chance of lynching a townie if we were do it randomly. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Situation Ratio of Mafia:town___ Percent Mafia influence_______ Change in Mafia Percentage Right now 3: 9 ______________ 33% Mafia Best case: 1:4 ______________ 25% Mafia ______________ -8% difference ______________ 25% chance of this Worst Case: 3: 7 ______________43% Mafia _____________+10% difference ______________75% chance of this Nothing 3:8: ______________ 37.5%Mafia ______________+4.5% Difference ______________ Depends. I'm not sure if this is helpful to anyone- but I'm finding this game really interesting!! I agree with your assessment that it will have a big payoff- but in all honesty, if we're thinking that a RL is the best option... not lynching will only result in slight change of the Mafia's influence, as opposed to the drastic choices associated with the other two. I guess I'm not much of a gambler- especially when there are 3 people in this thread who have an alternate agenda!! And we have 9 people still trying to orientate ourselves to 'who's, who'. It would be a lot easier for the mafia to influence our decisions on a random townie- which they KNOW is a random townie, and we wouldn't even know it until they've been lynched, and we're left trying to piece it all together. Not to mention if we randomly lynch someone, its likely that we won't get any information since they wouldn't of posted any information in the first place!! So as much as a big payoff as it is for the Town, it also could potentially be a HUGE pay off for the mafia- even more than for Town. One thing that obviously makes it difficult to go 'by the numbers' - is suspicions about certain people which make we feel like our percentage is a lot better that we'll hit a mafia. I appreciate your response- but can you also let me know why you think it is so urgent to make this decision at this point in the game? | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Friedchicken: This is my biggest concern when it comes to lynching a lurker, and you guys can tell me I'm wrong, or that its stupid. Lets say all 3 mafia are being active right now. Wouldn't it make sense that they would want us to lynch someone who is not being active, since they KNOW that we would be lynching a town? They wouldn't even have to influence this decision, but just stay back and watch us kill someone. And then after we kill them, we would of literally made NO progress, and now be playing from even more behind. Mementoss: Thanks for posting. Concerning Trackd00r: My only thought is that his first post you quoted kinda doesn't imply that he's for a random lynch.. but that he would like to try to lynch someone the first day. I think these are two extremely different perspectives. Right now I'm FoS'ing Sufficiency. Accusatory out of nowhere, almost picking a fight with multiple people who really haven't given any information. And then is suspicious of someone because they don't want to take a huge risk? Just seems like he has a bit of an agenda to push... Not to mention it really didn't sit with me very well that he just accuses someone, yet has LITERALLY no proof/logic besides "he's a compromiser". What say you Sufficiency? Or anyone else about my assessment so far? | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Agreed, my other two reads (Fried and Tiystus) I'm not as confident in. So I am open to reconsidering. OtoshimonoU is a good read on your part- I'll keep my eye on it. I like your reasoning on it with the "follows what is the trend". I'll be interested to see how that pans out. @RainMaker- Thats a good point- but I guess thats an issue of do we want to lynch someone because they're not playing the game well? I think its important to remember that our goal is to get mafia. But I do see your point. @Trackd00r- haha, the calculations were a bit much, I agree. I'm trying to prevent a random lynch. I see a lynch as an opportunity to actually use the information we have to see if its accurate- not as chance to get 'lucky'.... How much time do we have before a vote? I'm thinking that we may get some information from that? | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
@Mementoss- Good reads. I also want to hear more from sufficiency!!! I know you guys are looking at OtoshimonoU and Pablols, but I didn't get a good a read off them intially... however based on that last post, I will agree that these are my main 3 suspects. Also I specifically asked a couple questions to some people, and I'm curious to see if they're sidestepped or if they confront the question.. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
But Mementoss has a good argument for OtoshimonU and Pablols as well... obviously they all can't be mafia.. but those are the people that are sticking out suspiciously at this moment.. I'm hoping that my 'suspicions' are well explained and logical, I don't want to appear bloodthirsty, but I also think its important to apply some pressure and see what pans out. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had. I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead. 1.) gunman103 – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. . 2.) Mementoss – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True? 3.) Rainmaker5 + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death. 4.) Pablols – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction. 5.) Tiystus – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him. 6.) DimmuKlok – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though. 7.) Sufficiency –. + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU 8.) friedchicken – + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors: 9.) Maverick32x 10.) trackd00r – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence. 11.) OtoshimonoU- + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him. 12.) Beorn1 + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: Longest Lurker by far. First post has 0 content. Town Behaviors: | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
As for the 'bloodthirsty' comment.. I was reading through my filters and I seriously /facepalmed when I saw that I had written it twice.... I KNEW someone would mention it! I don't really have much else to say about it- I want to keep people pressured, but I don't want to be seen as reckless, emotional and illogical- because I don't make decisions that way. Anyways, I'll follow through with your plan shortly. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
#1: Sufficiency: This guy gets accused HARD. Never responds and keeps lurking. His only response so far has been to accuse others. I didn't like how he just jumped out at people for seemingly no reason. #2: Tiystus: Just a ton of back and forth. Never makes a decision. Really seems to be trying to stay out of the spot light. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
I just want to stress this last point. I admit that my posts are gigantic. As for not analyzing myself- feel free to!! The spot is left blank for anyone to put in information about me. I did that on purpose, and even pointed it out. So I encourage anyone to challenge what I'm saying. I posted that to get feedback- not to assert control over everyone. If you read through my spoilers Oto, I specifically point out that Mementoss is shifting the focus off himself and onto you consistently. I enjoy his style of analysis, and I'm liking how thorough he is with his analysis, and in that way we are both similar. Do I agree with everything he says? No. Do I like to have someone to bounce ideas around with? Yes. Maverick, you might sound very strong in your arguments, but to me it already shows your strange behavior. @Oto: I would really be interested to know what it is that you mean by that? Its strange that I'm forming logical arguments? I'm trying to accomplish a goal. If you want to punch holes in my reads, by all means go ahead, but just blanket statements to create doubt doesn't seem like its very helpful. I want to get discussions going based off these reads so we can go into Day 1 Lynch with some suspicions and the ability to make an informed decision (as I've stated numerous times) | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Heading to work, I'll post more when I get there. Lurkers are really barely contributing also.... makes me wonder what is going on with them. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
One thing that I was thinking about on my drive over to work is, "What information will we get if we lynch Sufficiency?" My answer to that is "Not very much". He doesn't appear to be very involved with the game, so even his 'FoS's' aren't of THAT much use... That being said, he doesn't contribute much of anything to the game, and his tone is kind of destructive which I don't really want. What if we lynch Oto? Well, if he's town we are going to have some issues- due to the ferocity that a lot of people have been targetting him. If he's Mafia: That will go a very long way in narrowing down our list of suspects... Would still like to hear more before a decision!!! I'll post my vote at 4:00CST since I won't be around to vote after that. | ||
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Maverick32x
United States311 Posts
Good posts!! I'm really glad to hear from you!! That being said, I truly am suspecting the following people as the most likely to be mafia at this point- Sufficiency- Its not so much the things you said, but the reactions that I've been gathering from the bottom two. Obviously I suspected you from the start due to your poor posting. But it seems like a lot of the other people were eager to let you get by as "poor town", and you weren't confronted at all. Then all of a sudden you post that you want to get rid of the lurker, and Dim hopes right on board. You've established zero credability in this thread, if anything you were seen as a non-helpful, yet for some reason you're getting bandwagon support..... Dim- You've spent a lot of time defending Mementoss, and bandwagoned with Sufficiency. On March 02 2012 19:25 DimmuKlok wrote: My thoughts regarding Mementoss and Pablols, I think we have a case of 2 townies accusing each other. Yes Mementoss did misquote Pablols but his posts thus far have given me a town vibe, and a misquote is no reason to lynch someone. Pablols doesn't really have a solid case on him since Mementoss's case was addressed by Pablols, and in my opinion truth except for accusation of Mementoss. Normally I wouldn't be posting who I think is town, but I don't want to see the discussion of who to lynch on these two, since I think it's a waste of time at the moment. On March 03 2012 03:24 DimmuKlok wrote: I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today. On March 02 2012 07:59 DimmuKlok wrote: Because some of you are starting to look at Mementoss, I'm going to post my opinion on him quickly and post my scum reads a bit later. Mementoss's posts thus far seem pro town to me. He's been either giving his opinion on the topic at hand, pointing out inactives, and posting his scum reads. Even if all his scum picks were wrong, it's still pro town to put it out there. It forces responses from the accused, which brings more information to the table. I think this is highly suspicous behavior. Both players have bounced off each other and defended each other's actions to establish credability. Mementos: On March 02 2012 05:46 Mementoss wrote: Sufficiency (although trackd00r brings up a point about his sloppy posts) Not counting Beorn cause I think it might be cause hes a noob and just forgot about the game starting to be honest. But he is in my mind too. Creating excuses for Sufficiency. On March 02 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick - I would also like to hear more from Sufficiency, I still have a decently scummy read on him based on his low amount of posting. Content related posters (includes at least 1 post unique opinion with logic and evidence to back it up.) Mementoss trackd00r maverick dimmuklok --> interested in your opinion of scum. No unique opinion (bandwagoners) - Little content posts/one liners /derails gunman rainman friedchicken tiystus otoshimoU beornt Quick to judge - Quick fos, multiple FoS, no evidence to back it up Pablos FoS ->(trackd00r, mementoss) Suffiency FoS ->(gunman, OtU) I honestly was shocked when I saw Dimm in this list. I looked through his filter and did not see a whole lot of "Meaningful posts".. but I guess the bar was set kind of low for this... I think he kept Sufficiency in the bottom since obviously I have been making a scene about him. You later make a huge post about how scummy Sufficiency is, and how you think he is the worst townie ever, or mafia. On March 03 2012 02:57 Mementoss wrote: @Maverick, I still don't see the read on Tiystus personally, but would lvoe to hear more from him. I consider him more of a lurker than anything. If we lynch Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU I think there is a damn good chance one of them is scum, and they are both pretty worthless (so far ) as town. Don't forget OtoshimonoU not responding to you as well Not only ignores you but ignores trackd00r. Not only ignores you and trackd00rs question but also mine. About Sufficiency, I think he is town. No newbie mafia would try to catch up so much attention in that way. They'd rather stay more quiet and apparently contribute, which it's kinda working for them now. Beorn1 hasn't posted anything yet. The player I would worry right now is OtoshimonoU. He has been the least contributor (excluding beorn) so far. This is his only post with actual content. Right now the lack of posting is really hurting us seeing different point of views, and to get more of a read on where some people stand. Both sufficiency and OtoshimonoU are good lynches imo, and I just want to make sure we get the majority to get one out and gain some information. My vote right now is committed to [red]OtoshimonoU.[red] Yet you've flipped to Oto, and are actively trying to make me consider Oto, and point to his lack of answering to both myself and Trackd00r- trying to get us to sway our votes. All this being said!!!! I won't vote for mementoss or Dim. They do talk a lot, which would be useful later on if they do end up being Mafia... So I guess that leads me to who I should vote for... I have about 2 hours left!! So I'm going to keep reading through and seeing what people come up with!!! Feel free to respond Sufficiency, Dim and Mementoss- I'd like to hear a counter to what I've posted, since I'm trying to stay open-minded. | ||
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