EPTMuch appreciated to all analyzers, your work is appreciated.
Salem post game analysis thread
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
Much appreciated to all analyzers, your work is appreciated. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
I was trying to accentuate what I felt I did well in Insane Mafia which was keep town on track and organized, what I failed to take into account was that I didn't organize the town toward a specific goal or into any sort of productive action which is the real purpose of a town leader (making sure the town doesn't get overrun with bullshit) It was an eye opening game though and by immediately recognising Radfield and JimboSilvers as well as having a lot of correct gut feelings about the game I've gained more confidence in my ability to scumhunt and hopefully this will pay off for towns I play with in the future. My goal is to post less, focus my posts more toward finding and lynching scum, and keep the town away from unimportant/irrelevant tangents. and please don't roleclaim to me on day 1 in the future it wasn't until night 2 that I bothered to go through and read the posts of everyone I wasn't sure about and immediately I realised then and there that jimbosilvers and radfield were scum i was thrown way off by youngminii's play and it caused me to suspect node as well, so his play threw me off the wrong track. i guess its my fault for not recognizing it but I can't lie and say it wasn't partly his fault for playing so badly | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Part 1 There is a marked difference between a town playing poorly on its own, and a town playing poorly due to mafia interference. This is why in a game such as TL Mafia XXVIII, it is not fair to simply condemn and say 'bad town' because the mafia were actively disrupting, misleading, and keeping things uncertain. Games like that are harder to analyze as a whole because it is a struggle by both sides to make the other one do worse, not just do well in itself. On the contrary, an extremely passive game like [BC and RoL: Salem Mafia] is easy to discover what not to do as town. [Although some information is not apparent through the thread, there are some clues that should pop out to you right away]. I'll be analyzing this for both sides in a chronological basis. For the most part I will Concepts Overview Town play has suffered for far too long by relying too much on the crutch of - end section shamelessly plagiarized (with some changes) from Ver - By the way, if you read Ver’s XXX thread, I won’t have to repeat myself as often here. The most basic point from there that I would like to emphasize here is: keep the town on a need to know basis. You don’t need to know everyone’s roles. And everyone doesn’t need to know yours. You don’t need to know what everyone thinks about every other player. You don’t need 10 suspects. You need ONE. After all, you only get to kill ONE person per day. Town needs to be focused and set an agenda. Town doesn’t need to know all your suspects. Most likely, one of them will be wrong, which allows mafia to come in and pick on that wrong suspect. Give your suspect no room for escape. Now I’m not saying that you shouldn’t discuss suspects with other people. Obviously, this can be an effective way to gather information. But you need to limit the size and scope of these discussions. Like BC said in the end of the actual game thread, pick 2-3 people from the game roster and start an information circle with them. Use that as your core analyzing group, as a sort of base of operations. That is your area for brainstorming. Outside that, however, make sure you aren’t flailing aimlessly. Make a strong thread presence and make the mafia know that when you pin them, they won’t be able to escape. Now of course, this all revolves around having good analysis. But since Ver already talked about analysis in his other thread I won’t focus on it too much here. All I will say is that pretty much everyone in this game needs to up their analysis. A note on DH and the Jimbo/Radfield issue: This was a good analysis that came too late. Overall though, you were all over the place. Your early game analysis was weak, wishy-washy, and unfocused. I feel like you were unable to handle PMs very well early game, and the analysis that came from them was therefore weak. I think you suffered from information overload. You were trying to do too many things at once, thus violating the “need to know” concept. Your play was bold and overly-ambitious from the start. Your analysis skills couldn’t keep up with the large amount of info you had to receive and process. The DTA lynch was a terrible lynch based on shoddy reasoning and carried out at the last minute, which is terrible for the town. If you wanted to lynch DTA, you should’ve built a case from the ground up, started sooner, and provided better reasoning. Instead, town basically bandwagoned DTA to death and got no information in the process. Side note: NEVER use polls to help you decide whether you should vote switch. That was just a terrible idea. You have no way of holding people accountable, and you don’t know where the information is coming from. You don’t know if mafia is tampering with the results. And this happened twice. Which makes me very sad. Anyhow, looking at Ver’s list of town goals here: 1) Get useful information (often achieved via point 2) 2) Create an ideal atmosphere (will go over this in detail in town guide) 3) Figure out your plans/direction I’m going to add 4) Bully the town to your way of thinking. This is absolutely critical, especially if you are a high impact player. Mafia is a game that splits people up into camps. If you’re doing your job right, this should result in a lot of opposition to your cause. One of the principles of mafia is divide and conquer. On one hand, its town v. mafia. But when you look at the game closely and see how the mafia optimally want to act, you’ll notice that you need to shift the game’s balance and make mafia react and pick sides. If you look at the game as town v mafia, you will basically see one lump of players, because mafia want to look like town. As long as everyone acts the same, its hard to find much. So your goal is to give people weighted options and bully people to your point of view. For one, as a strong town analyst, you are worthless unless you have the political support necessary to carry out your agenda. On the other hand, sharply differentiating the game into distinct factions makes the mafia caught in a tough place. Nobody should be allowed to remain neutral. Everyone needs to pick a side and face the consequences. So what do mafia do? Do they oppose you and hope to evade your wrath? Or do they join you in order to hide while giving up their influence over the lynch and the game flow? Of course, this doesn’t work if you are a weak analyst. Weak analysis in conjunction with strong willpower just leads the town to destruction. If you have weak analysis and you can discern who has strong analysis, then by all means, join them. Know your reasoning however and don’t sheep someone based on appearance alone. The bottom line though, is that nobody should remain neutral. Keep this concept firmly in mind. So rough recap of town’s goals: 1) Get useful information. Provide an accusation with reasoning. Generate discussion by pointing out interesting details and irregularities in people’s posts and find out why players feel that way. Don’t let people off the hook for bizarre statements. You want to know what they’re thinking and why. 2) Create an ideal atmosphere. You don’t want an atmosphere of confusion, mistrust, and doubt. You want an atmosphere of clarity, direction, and focus. 3) Figure out your plans/direction. Mafia don’t give themselves up that easily. Town needs to establish methods of finding and systematically destroying mafia. This ties into the next point: 4) Bully the town to your way of thinking. Coupled with strong analysis, you need to ensure that the mafia fear you and that you can command influence. Make sure nobody can stay neutral, so that you can increase your influence while weeding out scum. If we grade town on each of these factors, how did they do? 1) Most everyone did a poor job. We get jokes, spam, generic advice, and little game-specific content. All game-specific content comes from DH, but even that is hardly useful for finding scum. Pretty much all the PMs DH posts are inconclusive. Town is too passive and focused on #3. Town takes blues too seriously and scramble at the end on lynch targets. There is virtually no decent scumhunting at this point even though it certainly is possible at this point: (Protact, Radfield, and Jimbo are all obvious before the end of the day). Only one person picks up on Protact, but doesn’t push the idea like it should be. 2) The game atmosphere on day is not ideal, but its not terrible. DH’s fragile circle stands, although he is under quite a bit of attack from both townies and mafia. DH’s leadership starts to emerge, his control is tenuous, and the only reason he really is able to lead the town is because nobody else steps up to the plate. The town has some direction (momentum) building up around the town circle, but there is still confusion, mistrust, and doubt in the thread. In PMs, it seems like it’s a different story, but in the thread, the town atmosphere is mediocre. 3) Town has a plan. It’s a bad plan, but it does make mafia react. Virtually the entire mafia opposes the town circle plan because they know DH is town. However, town plan is terrible from the uninformed townie point of view. Theres no way to check DH’s alignment, and people are still claiming to him. People tacitly accept DH’s command of the thread, when there are plenty of reasonable objections to be made. Fortunately for town, mafia don’t capitalize on this weakness and passively watch while DH assembles the town together. From a town perspective, even though DH is clearly not mafia, it probably would have benefitted the town to kill DH so that town could get rid of this bothersome and powerful yet misguided force in order to get town on the right track. Of course, nobody stepped up to the plate. 4) DH does a good job positioning himself so that he gets the claims he wants and his influence allows him to dominate the town discussion. Although he doesn’t support this with strong analysis and levelheaded gameplay and ultimately leads the town to the wrong conclusions, this is a good start. For everyone else, letting DH direct every single major town action was horribly anti-town. Even if DH is town, nobody was critical of his policies and nobody stepped up the analysis or tried to get town on the right track. Complacency wins here. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
While this may seem like a moot point (who cares if these guys are town, imma find those mafia bastards!), you will find that in many mafia games people debate over the color of player when it is obvious they were town. As an example, I thought it was pretty clear that both DoctorHelvetica (DrH) and DarthThienAn (DTA) were town-aligned. The goal is to help you (as a townie) think about what makes other players' town aligned. It's important to think about this so you know who to PM in the beginning stages of the game. I remember my first game of mafia here I was a detective, and despite the fact that Ver kept telling me to PM people, I was scared shitless that I would be talking to a mafia, and so I neglected this key aspect of the game. This ended up costing me in the long run. Before we start with the good stuff, I will let you know that I played this game blind just like you did. I had no role list or role count as I tried to align players. I tried to as much of this analysis as the game was playing, so lots of my thoughts will have been written before I even knew if I was right about the player. I do agree though, that it is easier figuring things out from an outsider’s perspective (as opposed to being in the actually game) but I will do my best. Also keep in mind that I had no way to PM players in the game to verify my thoughts. PMing people is a good way to follow up on your analysis, but that topic shall be left for another day. ----------------------------------------------- I will start with my thoughts after day 1 was half-over. This corresponds to roughly page 15 of the thread. Usually it takes a little while for discussion to start (there are no clues this game) so most of the beginning posts are spam. Here are a few things that stuck out to me: DTA On November 26 2010 13:02 DarthThienAn wrote: Hey guys, I'd like to officially announce that I am running for mayor. That being said, Vote 4 me. I will make all your wildest dreams come true. From Mafia XXX: On August 05 2010 14:58 DarthThienAn wrote: I'm mafia guys. Just saying. DTA joking around like that corresponds to DTA town aligned, as in Mafia XXX when he was a tracker for instance. If he jokes a bit but is always serious when he needs to be, that is a big sign he is town aligned. There will be more about him later. DrH makes a long post about topic discussions. He brings up good points to talk about, but there’s not much else to say about this yet. ghrur On November 26 2010 14:36 ghrur wrote: Welcome to TL Mafia! ^_^ I'm still fairly new too so I remember my first TL mafia experience. Don't be too timid, post often. That was my mistake.  It's so much more fun when you post often. ^_^I expect this post to be listed to any of analysts hunting mafia (assuming Ghrur turns up red). If he does not make ample contribution/posts to the game, he is a top mafia suspect. aidnai On November 26 2010 14:55 aidnai wrote: let me see here... Can you explain the 'curse' dynamic a little more? i.e. what effect does being cursed have on a townie? Other than that, I think I understand the setup decently. I know the role count is not disclosed, but just to double check my assumptions with everyone... it's probably something close to 8 regular mafia/witches 1 godfather/elder 1 miller 1 chaos ensuant 2 DTs/witch hunters 2 medics/healers 1 mad hatter 1 vet/hardened soldier 1 vigi/paranoid villager and about 13 townies yes/no? What caught my eye here was that he listed 8 mafia as the setup. As pointed out in the thread, not only is 8 a boatload for this small of a game, but I immediately suspected this guy as town-aligned. If he were mafia, he would know exactly how many mafia members there are, and would probably list something in that neighborhood (5-6ish). It doesn’t seem plausible to me that as a mafia member he would think about this while posting and purposely list 8 to sound like a newbie. Sure, I could be totally wrong about this, but it’s a good way to start thinking. We can affirm him later on as he posts more. Radfield makes a few good posts, but nothing definite yet. He has plenty of experience so we’ll wait until he makes a few more posts before saying anything. Protactinium makes a crap post. Since Protactinium is not Chezinu, he should be pressured later if this attitude keeps up. (Note: if Chezinu is posting nonsense, and you pressure him, he will give you even more nonsense, thus leading you to consider gouging your eyes out). SouthRawrea On November 27 2010 05:41 SouthRawrea wrote: I encourage people to reread their roles and ask about changes because I've noticed and asked (a) change(s) regarding certain role(s). I will not post the one(s) I've found to avoid revealing my role in the case where the information I've obtained is only available to the person with the role. That’s a blue claim (at the very least he's either blue or red). I don’t know what questions he would have if he were mafia, especially since mafia don’t have any odd roles (like a roleblocker). Nor do I think he'd blatantly say that if he were mafia. EsbenPM is either a bored townie or mafia. You can tell because of his “I don’t know what to say” and “DrH said what I wanted to say but better” attitude. ------------------------------------------- Day 1 is half over, let’s make a preliminary list of who we think is town: DTA, DrH, Aidnai, SouthRawrea. At this point, DrH has claimed that he knows a medic through PM (medic claiming to him). Let's do some analysis about this by first assuming that DrH is mafia. Two scenarios are possible: a medic claimed to him or he's lying about the medic claim. Scenario one does not make sense. If he was mafia and a medic claimed to him, he’d have nothing to gain from telling the town. He would just keep it a secret until night one when the mafia would hit and kill him, and nobody would know about it. Scenario two seems more likely than the first, but unlikely in the grand scheme. Day one is half over and he's already causing a fuss. Mafia generally does not act like this first day, as they are still getting organizing and debating their plans (there's also no mayoral election). I would imagine that if I was mafia and proposed this plan to my teammates, I would get shot down really fast. There's no need for mafia to take such a risk early in the game. If night 1 ends and a medic turns up dead (say mafia randomly kill one), DrH will probably get lynched. I'd also like to note that in one of his first posts, DrH said “those are my 2 cents for now. i'm working all throughout black Friday”. I think most people interpret this as, ‘I won't be posting for a while’. Yet that's obviously contrary to the case since he's been responding to almost every post. What does this mean? He legitimately cares about the state of the game and by his first post wants to make sure mafia are found. Remember if mafia can avoid posting in the thread as much as possible it's harder to track them down. Another good thing to note is that DrH is half spamming the thread. As soon as he has a thought about something, he posts it instantly. I think we can all agree that mafia are much more careful about what they post because they don't want to slip up. Thus I find it even more unlikely that DrH is mafia since he keeps actively posting all his thoughts. A mafia would be much more careful about what they tell the town. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What are some of the things of note to me during the rest of day 1? (remember I'm purposely trying to find innocents). Annul and Coagulation are both really spammy. And both are spamming out of boredom (compared to DrH who is spamming because he's replying to every post in the thread). Kenpachi half claimed blue to DrH (from DrH’s PM post). Pandain soft claimed blue (I'll discuss this thoroughly later in the post) On November 28 2010 05:49 Pandain wrote: wtf im dying? For what? Seriously it would be stupid to lynch me. Some suspicious people: jimbosilvers, EsbenPM, chaoser, ghrur, Protactinium, Node Current town aligned list: DrH, DTA, Aidnai, SouthRawrea, Annul, Coagulation, Kenpachi, Pandain. I have found that making lists is infinitely helpful when trying to figure out games. So how did I get these lists? I read through day 1 and put down people I felt were doing good for the town (I similarly do the same thing for suspicious people). Note I haven't really done any analysis yet, these are all based on vibes I got from reading their posts (with the exception of DTA and DrH as I discussed above). At the time of this writing I have no idea on the actual results of these since BrownBear is the only one dead. Now I'm going to sit down, do a little research, and see if any of these intuitions hold (just for the people I think are townies). Let's start with DTA. I mentioned his joking attitude above and how it corresponds with him being town. Lucky for us he's made some posts that are longer than 2 lines, so let's take a look at those. On November 27 2010 17:04 DarthThienAn wrote: Didn't you guys know? Protactinium is schizophrenic. That's why he said "we". Seriously though, for those of you wondering, I'm voting for DrH currently because I think he's full of crap. Here's how I see it: 1) An actual medic roleclaimed to him: conclusion - medic is silly in the head, unless he's pulling shenanigans and claimed to someone else to bait mafia. Why? You don't know DrH's alignment, why would you RC with nothing in the game to look at? Simply because he's a "better player"? That's ridiculous -_-. 2) A mafia player claimed to him as medic - I'll agree that it's a little silly for mafia to RC medic, unless they plan on doing something fast. It would give DrH the power to "protect" certain players from mafia hits, by saying "protect this person". If that person gets hit, then the mafia gets outted. 3) A townie/non-medic claims medic - someone thinks they're good and is fishing. Otherwise, it's retarded. 4) DrH, mafia, lying, wants to make a huge ploy to become trusted in the town/get the names of some blues. And the "he'll attract too much attention" arguments don't apply here, because any mafia willing to attract attention is confident enough that they'll be able to handle/deflect it. I think this is more likely than the other 3 options, thought 1 is close. But with nothing to go on so far, this is my vote for now. Also, I'd like to throw in that Protactinium's first post is retarded. I'd be happy to vote for him as well. Here he accuses DrH, using the same reasoning I did above, except he came to the conclusion that DrH is a mafia trying to get the town to trust him. A quick skim shows me that DTA is one of the few (maybe only) that actually lists the scenarios out like this. I think that means something here, but I will say it'd be easy for a mafia to duplicate this post, so we shouldn't draw any conclusions yet. On November 28 2010 17:48 DarthThienAn wrote: I don't mind being the target for a DT check... but I wonder if it'd be better to use on someone else. From my perspective anyway. But I guess you all think I'm scum so maybe it is a worthwhile check. I'm going to go ahead and tell the DTs to check whoever they think is most likely to be scum. One thing to be wary of though is bandwagons, no matter how legitimate they seem. ie. right now I might seem scummy, but if I get lynched/die, when I flip town, make a note of people who started it, and then make a note of people who pushed it. That said, right now, I don't think DrH is mafia. I never did, because if a medic actually came up to him and he was, he wouldn't tell the town, he'd kill that person either n1 or n2, depending on how paranoid he was. If the whole thing was a scheme, I'd expect a better fake scenario than that. Not to mention that the mafia can win by preventing the town from doing anything (ie. Day 1 "there's no discussion to be had so let's not talk about anything") / if the town does nothing, the mafia win. For those of you still wondering why I voted for Kenpachi, you'll notice that most of the times where Kenpachi was above BB, someone would bump up BB. Suspicious? I think so. This post is interesting, especially the 3rd paragraph. He says that he was never suspicious of DrH (although we all know that's false given his above post AND he voted for DrH early on). His reasoning is similar as before, except now that he's had time to think about it, he decides that DrH as a mafia ploy does not make much sense. This is suspicious, let's look at the time of events (all in Korean): DrH says he knows medic at 6:59. DTA comes on, makes a brief post or two and votes for DrH at 12:15. He makes the post above at 17:09 (where he accuses DrH). At about 10:00 the next day he votes for Kenpachi, giving his reasoning in the thread (strange voting things going on). His ‘interesting' post above comes during the middle of night 1. What happened here? I'm an optimist so I'll start by assuming he's town. He reads that DrH knows a medic, and thinks to himself, “bullshit nobody would claim medic day 1”, and immediately votes for DrH thinking it's a mafia ploy. He follows it up with a post in the thread thereafter. After seeing nobody else in the thread agreeing with him (it's between Kenpachi and BrownBear now), he decides that his vote is better elsewhere. He notices that BrownBear seems to get votes anytime Kenpachi is about to take the lead so he votes Kenpachi. After the initial shock of the events are over, he sits down and thinks to himself and reaches the same conclusion about DrH that I did above. Let’s think about what happened if he's mafia. If DrH is also mafia then this is part of their plan (too far-fetched). If DrH is not mafia he's trying to discredit him so DrH doesn't become a huge threat. Now the interesting part: what does DTA have to gain from switching his vote when he did? (remember we're assuming he's mafia). He voted for Kenpachi, if BrownBear had turned up mafia, DTA is suspect since he tried to save his buddy. But that didn't happen. In fact, by moving his vote to Kenpachi, DTA has attracted more attention to himself. If he was mafia I'd expect him to leave his vote on DrH. Mafia typically want to spread their votes out instead of piling on someone. He wouldn't want to switch votes at such a crucial time like that if he was mafia (unless to save someone, which isn't the case). Also since we determined that DrH was town, I'd expect mafia to be pressuring him more since he's probably going to become a huge threat soon. DTA has been around for a while, and I'd expect him to be one to keep the pressure on. Moving his vote around in an unorthodox way on day 1 is just making himself stand out more than he needs to. This guy's legit town. ------- Aidnai. This guy hasn’t been in any other mafia games so we just got the thread to deal with. On November 27 2010 02:49 aidnai wrote: actually mafia KP is two until there only one scum remaining. Declaring absence for 24 hours. Due to Thanksgiving followup activities with my cousins. There will be no computers/internet available, so see you later. I bring this up because of an important thing I've noticed. Very often a town player will post in the thread something like, “yo guys going to be gone for the next 24 hours got stuff to do”, but you don't see mafia post this much. Why is that? By posting that, you (the poster) are making yourself liable for posting again after that 24 hours. If you don't post people are going to hold you accountable for that. Mafia don't ever want to be in a position where they are liable to do something for the town. As a side note to this, I did the exact opposite in a mafia game once (I disappeared for a while because I was busy, but I didn't say anything in the thread). L ended up calling me out on it and it definitely put me in an uncomfortable position (I was actually town that game). End tangent. Outside of that though, none of his posts have much content. He voted for Pandain due to thinking day was over earlier than it was, voted and made a post or two against DTA. Nothing incriminating, but nothing supportive either. I list him as maybe town for now. ----------- SouthRawrea. On November 28 2010 01:31 SouthRawrea wrote: Considering the plays we've seen so far in this game, I would have to say that options 1 and 3 are highly possible. I feel like we're in the Maritimes with all the fishers we have: we've had TWO green claims in thread as well several PMs going around with claims which are presumably being used to gather info from newer players who may respond to them honestly. Fishing is most helpful for groups of players (i.e. Town circle or mafia) as you can have more information about a single thing to converge in your group. I feel that the most likely options here is that DrH is fishing for information regardless of role, that a new player legitimately claimed to him or someone else is fishing. Only 1 of these 4 (implied) options is mafia related and I feel that this is much too early in the game to quell this as we may actually have a town circle eventually form here (with DT checks and whatnot). I do encourage people to limit the amount of information given to DrH and ANYONE really to also limit the threat if they are actually mafia. Good? Now we need a different vote. On November 28 2010 07:15 SouthRawrea wrote: He's not just looking for slipups but reactions. Also with mass PMs like this he begins establishing contacts immediately in the game causing to be a sort of convergence point of information. SouthRawrea defends DrH against DTA's accusations. He brings up a few good points in his long post. Him and DrH have a little tussle in the thread, but apparently it gets solved in PM land. There's not much more to go on so let's look at some of his past behavior. In mafia XXXI he was a townie. I'm going to look at some of his posts. On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote: At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much. We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives. Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/ What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet. On October 09 2010 07:00 SouthRawrea wrote: AH forgot about this game totally with getting my haircut and preparing for other stuff and what not :/. Strangely enough I find myself agreeing with BM's take on Happy.fairytail and BC. I'm going to completely ignore the Role PM controversy (with the whole TOWN vs CITIZEN thing) as even if it wasn't a miscommunication, in my opinion BM comes out on top simply because it is slightly suspicious. I would like to say this, I've been pretty inactive this day but I find that Misder's posts during day 1 have been consistent with not wanting to lynch without reasons. Eventually he gradually admits that he wouldn't want to lynch an inactive but votes for Xelin and then switches to Opz because he was inactive as well. This to me screams timid town role behaviour rather than mafia simply because his votes aren't quite bandwagonesque. In this case I believe that NuketheBunnys if mafia. I'm seeing a similar kind of attitude. Calm and complacent, a few one liners here and there. Nothing stands out. Now I'm looking through Haunted mafia. In this game SouthRawrea was mafia. I don't even need to read his posts before I find out a major difference: amount of posts. He made ~8 posts during the entire game, and in this mafia game he made that many posts just in day one. Looking at his post count in Team Melee Mini Mafia II, PYP 2, and XXXI, he had a similar post count as this game (he was green in all those games). This guy looks mighty green to me. --------- Annul As before, he has a lot of one-liners. Let's see if I can dig up anything interesting. ….and I couldn't. No post longer than 4 lines that looked like it had anything useful. Let's look at what happened in his previous games. Just by looking at post count I can tell that he probably always spams in games. He's been every color so far, let's see if anything interesting comes up. Haunted mafia he was red (he survived until game's end). Shitson so many posts to go through. After going through a ton of them the things I've noticed are that he asks a lot of questions, he seems to be really pushy towards killing people (his one liners are “let's kill this guy” “kill player x”, etc). Running through this game I don't see any of that. And in insane mafia he's back to asking a lot of questions. Wonderful. It certainly seems like he doesn't ask as many questions, and there seems to be more posts that are more than one line long. But nothing definitive. This is the kinda guy you talk to in PMs to confirm. We'll have to wait until he posts more to make any judgment. I'd highly suggest pushing him in the thread to make a post longer than 2 lines, as that might help. At the moment I'm honestly do not feel like wading through all his posts lol. Maybe later. Still thinking he's green. ------------ Coagulation. This guy's been in a lot of games. Surely we can figure something out. Although I know I'm going to have the same problem as I did with Annul. Okay sweet he was red in Insane mafia. Time to wade through 10000 posts to see if I notice anything unusual. I notice here that while all his posts are one liners, none of them say anything (they are all 5 words long). Let's compare to this game: On November 28 2010 04:11 Coagulation wrote: you guys are doing a fucking fantastic job of splitting the fucking votes up 10 different ways so mafia can fucking waltz right the fuck in and fucking lynch whoever the fuck they want without having to worry at all about being exposed by voting patterns. town needs to pick 1 fucking person. and actually get information from vote numbers and reactions. . On November 28 2010 05:23 Coagulation wrote: brownbear is a grab bag skilled player.regardless of role. 1 day he does a good job and contributes alot next day he shits on everything in his path. then hes inactive for 5 days you never know what to expect from brownbear On November 28 2010 06:41 Coagulation wrote: %@#%!???? are you like completely indifferent to the fact doch is talking about you being anti town and posting incriminating pm's for everyone to read or what. I'm starting to notice something here. In our mafia game he's actually posting things relevant to the game, asking questions to some people, making a few valid points. Looking at Insane mafia I notice less one liners that are well thought out. On November 01 2010 10:56 Coagulation wrote: NB has been completely useless in every game i have played so far. On November 03 2010 10:10 Coagulation wrote: this is not gonna prove anything. not that i need him to prove his role its obvious anyway but anything he says hes gonna write can be copied by the real person so the point is moot. On November 03 2010 10:16 Coagulation wrote: scum constantly do what doesnt make sense for them to do JUST for the simple fact that they can say this. To name a few (these are probably some of his better posts in the game). Honestly my eyes hurt from both him and Annul. I'm going to say he's green for now, but PM confirmation is greatly needed on this. Or make him post something longer than 2 lines. ---------------- Kenpachi As we know this guy half claimed blue in his PM conversation with DrH. I shouldn't need to remind you of how hard he defended himself day 1. I think this guy's innocent from two perspectives: First is the fact he half claimed in the PM. Can you guys honestly see a mafia member saying “I'm a special townie” in a PM conversation? Looking at the PM conversation, it is clear that Kenpachi is a very confused person. DrH is PMing him and he's freaked out about it. He even seems to believe that there might be a bus driver role. A mafia member is never going to react this way to a PM conversation. They know to keep their cool as much as possible. Kenpachi has played before so he has to have some idea of what's going on. Most likely he's freaked out because he's a blue role. This leads into the second point. Second is his hard defense in the thread. This guy literally jumps ten feet when he sees he might be lynched. He questions everyone who's voting for him and spams as much as Annul and Coagulation. This definitely confirms he's either red or blue, but I still argue that no red would say they are a ‘special townie' in a PM (or hint at it). As a note, when I say red, I'm including the traitor (chaos) in on this. The only reason Kenpachi, as the traitor, would tell DrH he is a ‘special townie' is if he believed that DrH was mafia. Kenpachi doing this on day one is very unlikely (I guess unlikely as a medic randomly claiming day 1 =/ ). Traitors want to sit in the shadows for a few days until they can hook up with the mafia, doesn't make much sense to be guessing for mafia on day one. And looking at insane mafia, he did the exact same thing there when he was blue (everyone had a role that game though). He flipped out with Pandain was getting him lynched, spammed the thread right up until he died. In fact he was a very quiet person in that game up until that happened. He started spamming around post 3900. He made as many posts from post 3900 to 4200 as he had from the beginning of the game until 3900. The only difference is in that game he claimed in the thread, and he did not this game. I'll give the town credit on making the right decision. Kenpachi defended himself while BrownBear didn't. Killing active people early game is really bad for the town. ------------------------------ Pandain On November 28 2010 05:17 Pandain wrote: Coag is right, regardless of how expletively he says so :p. It's time to pick a canidate. I'd rather have a 50% chance of getting the right canidate than a 1% chance if we let mafia decide since we have split the vote. With that, I am going to suggest someone who I myself am suscipcious of, that is, Annul. In short, he has been spamming or "contributing" without really contributing. The icing on the cake for me is of his pm with dr. h, which could've been a mafia slip up. Right now, I am uncertain his alignment, but more leaning with mafia. And since it's day 1, I think he's probably the best bet we have, along with Brownbear. However I am going to hold off on Brownbear since 1)We're SFA members 2) He does this sometimes, just going inactive and even getting modkilled. But I think either of them would be good lynches. His Posts this game: SPAM + Show Spoiler + Spam On November 27 2010 13:23 annul wrote: harry potter stuff is all you ever need, this is SALEM mafia, we are all magical people here ok produce your wand, yo. spam On November 27 2010 13:38 annul wrote: spam This post was after he was called out for not contributing. Yet this post is not contributing at all by any means. Right now, what does this post say? 1.I'm doing this to teach people what NOT to do. (joke maybe) 2.We'll have a normal game if... 3.Don't analyze based on roles. This post really doesn't say anything. The only thing it really says is "let's make this a normal game", without really giving any opinions on the current situation. Also note that he was basically forced to contribute, and this is one of those things that I call "contributing without really contributing." Very weak reason for a lynch. Obviously darth is going to change, or at the very least it was a semi joke by darth. Irrelevant sentence. Extra Point: This PM he had with Dr. H was suspicious. Dr. H and I discussed it here. Note that annul said coag seemed suscipcious "despite his defense of dr. h" Now, why would that make coag LESS suspicious unless he knew that Dr. H was town? I will point out here it is possible that he just felt strongly that dr. h WAS town, but this is suspicious nonetheless. Here Pandain makes a case against Annul. Looking through this it seems legit. The few points to mention are that he doesn't want to kill BrownBear (although this seems more of a personal reason than mafia defending mafia), and he claims Annul is not contributing and has suspicious PM conversations. After having to read through nearly all of Annul's posts, I can't say that I agree with his accusation against him. All he said is that Annul is behaving like he always does (but he may not know this fact). Either way, Pandain put in effort to make this post at a crucial time in the game, and that means something. On November 28 2010 05:49 Pandain wrote: wtf im dying? For what? Seriously it would be stupid to lynch me. This is a soft blue claim as I said before. The giveaway is the “seriously it would be stupid to lynch me”. I've seen lots of people use that excuse when they are blue and someone wants to kill them. They don't want to explicitly claim but they want to get people off their back so they say something along the lines of, “it's a really, really bad idea to kill me” (I've seen this in real life mafia a bunch too). On November 28 2010 22:38 Pandain wrote: That assumes Kenpachi is red. If he isn't, then the data is actually meaningless. If the voting WAS between two townies, then mafia could vote whoever they want, making any seeming "switches" actually useless. Keep this in mind, if we are going to lynch kenpachi tommorow it should be in addition to any analysis, not because of just this. Obviously this is a plausible scenario, that mafia tried to save kenpachi when the vote leaned towards him being lynched, but should we lynch kenpachi just based off that? No. Furthormore, let's take a look at the votes that DID change the vote. KtheZ Towards kenpachi)decent i suppose Esben(even tie for brownbear) Decent reason, a bit weak however since he admits the case is "weak" but then clarifies he wants to lynch an inactive. Slightly suspicious. Youngminii towards kenpachi)Slightly weak. Just being clueless is hardly a reason to lynch someone, unless they're a vet and it's just outright unfathomable for them to do that. But again, says that's more worrying than the reasons against BB, which is slightly right. We didn't really have a strong read on either player, just a decent one. Aeres tied)Now THIS is actually somewhat suspicious. Let's take a look: Previous post, states he would like annul lynched, says since he's not convinced on brownbear he'll vote kenpachi. Leaves it open though. Then here he changes. The most striking thing to note is that Aeres left himself an out, that he could be convinced, a convienant excuse for mafia if kenpachi was indeed mafia, since if kenpachi got too many votes he could change. The only vote in between was Darth voting kenpachi, making it 8-7, 7 for brownbear. When aeres changed it became 7-8, 7 for Kenpachi. Now, can people chane their minds? Certainly. But this is just something to keep in mind. There is something in support of aeres, let's post it here. This is where he originally voted kenpachi, Here it is in accordance with the whole "he isn't that good anyway", so yay for aeres. Furthormore, it actually tied kenpachi in the lead(he was below previously), so it doesn't make much sense if he voted kenpachi to put him in the lead so early in the game. Right now I say Aeres is cleared from suspicion. Ghrur: Decent reason, if a bit silly for bringing the "let him learn!" argument. Conclusion: I believe this was most likely between two townies. Furthormore, Kenpachi being checked is a no-no, as there's a good chance he's a second chaos ensurgent because of his claim of "special townie." So DT checking him would bring no good. The votes seem to be decent enough, and even though Aeres seems suspicious at first glance, is actually in accordance with his previous thoughts. Another long post by Pandain. I am slightly suspicious since his pattern is: make 1 long post, spam one liners for 10 posts, make 1 long post, spam again. However, as said before he's clearly putting time and work into verifying Kenpachi as not mafia. Someone putting so much time into their posts like this is town. Remember mafia wants to hide amongst the inactives as much as possible. They won't go out of their way to make long posts for no reason. I went through about 50 of his posts from Insane mafia and saw absolutely no analysis of any other player in the game (he was godfather). Don't be fooled, he did make a lot of long posts as well, but nothing accusing other players until late in the game when there were less people. Pretty sure Pandain is town-aligned, and probably blue. ------------------ Town aligned: DrH, DTA, SouthRawrea, Coagulation, Kenpachi, Pandain Uncertain town: Annul, Aidnai To those relatively new, this may seem like a lot of work. But that's only because I have to write it up. For instance, it didn't take me more than 20 min to deduce that Pandain is innocent. I saw that he was making long posts, which he clearly spent time working on, and he analyzed the votes to see if Kenpachi might be red. I looked at one game where he's mafia and saw that he did zero analysis up until the late game. That's enough to warrant a case. Obviously nothing is 100% certain, but this is a good way to get thinking. On one hand, I'm relatively certain those 6 people above are town-aligned, but I wouldn't stake my life on it. A good thing to remember is to try hard to not make the data fit the hypothesis. What I mean is just because we think SouthRawrea is green, don't look at every post he makes and say “yes he's green”. Be open to the fact that you may be wrong. Lots of players will make an accusation day 1 against another player and twist and turn everything they say to make it look like they're mafia (yes Pyrr, if you are reading this, I'm talking about you -_-). Honestly before I did the analysis I thought Aidnai was for sure green, but after looking through I'm not as sure anymore. Remember this is day 1, and this is designed to help you think about whose green. Once you have a small list of people you think are innocent, it's time to start the PMing to confirm your results. It also goes to show that you can make good deductions simply by looking at another game the player was in. Since it is day 1, I only looked at the one game where Pandain was mafia. But of course later in the game if he is up for suspicion you would need to look at more games and more closely. The purpose of this was to show you that just by a quick look (like I said, hardly more than 20 min) you can make a very good deduction -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It was nice to see that I was right about all but one person in my list here. I also thought Pandain was blue, but he turned out to be green. I'll say a few words about SouthRawrea: Considering that in the past when he's mafia he's inactive as hell, you played well. By actually being in the thread for once and arguing with DrH (as well as talking in PMs) you were able to deceive me up until the 3rd day when I was considering you to be the leak (and obviously it became more apparent you were the leak when you didn't die at night =P ). So on all those notes, good job infiltrating the circle and not being a silly inactive mafia! I hope someone read this and got some insight out of it =P | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
what the fuck was that guy thinking? | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
At least the learning game helped you though, not that you willing tried starting the town circle but you understand that the game is about scumhunting, not town confirming. I'd rather have a townie doing analysis then a blue doing nothing. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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Eiii
United States2566 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On December 03 2010 09:26 JimboSilvers wrote: Yup. I'm apparently so obvious that you don't even have to bother with responding to my defense. Nice avoidance tactics there. Anyway, a bunch of people are running around supporting the terrible argument that "oh noes if DH is mafia we doomed anyway so we might as well keep trusting him!" You've been sheeped by him the whole game. And you continue to want to sheep him. Way to go. Either way, the logic for this argument is atrocious. Nobody has given any good reasons for us to go flock to DH. They're all based on an idea that just isnt true. Assuming this game is balanced most of the other normal games I've read, we're now at 15 town to 5 mafia. Which is not unwinnable at all. And looking at the dead blues, there are probably no more blues left besides South's "DT", and maybe a veteran or two. Town doesn't really benefit from knowing who the veterans are, only the DTs. And there's probably only one left. Given that this "DT" is already in DH's inner circle, the reasons for "keeping DH because we're doomed anyway" is bad. DH said he shared everything with his circle. This means that DH isn't really crucial to the town's information library. There are 3-4? other people who share this information. DH as town is no more important than anyone else in the circle. He is not as crucial as he wants you to think. This idea that we need to trust DH is blatantly false. Nobody has told us why the game is already lost if DH is mafia. I've just shown how eliminating DH won't destroy all of our information and how there are likely few blue roles that would benefit from DH. Using "he knows everything" as an excuse to keep him alive is terrible. If we're going to win this game, we need to kill the elder. And as stated before by many people, if DH is mafia, hes the elder. We need to kill him right now to lower mafia KP. DH's play this game has been fantastic. He has used propaganda to make himself appear "critical" to the town's survival. Futhermore, he's been constantly saying that "since he already has so many blue roles, the rest might as well claim to him" along with "if I'm mafia you're all screwed". The fact is that there is no real reason why town is screwed if DH knows the blue roles. Is it a major blow to the town? Yes. Can town overcome infiltration of the blue circle? Yes, but its difficult. Don't dismiss the idea that he's mafia just because he knows things. Vote based on who is mafia, don't excuse someone just because they appear valuable. DH wants you to think he's valuable. This is a pretty blatant fraud. Even his circle seems to believe him. But in the event that you prefer to follow someone who has been completely shady since the beginning of the game and want to lynch me, then go ahead. Town doesn't deserve a win if you keep sheeping and using bad logic. This DH situation is not logical. Think it over hard if you really care about this game. I'm not sure if anybody else noticed this, but I found it REALLY strange that he was saying there were 5 mafia left when the mafia count was hidden from the town. =P Just goes to show you that pressuring people does work since mafia will make mistakes if they have to post a lot. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
also, who was the 4th hit on that day? there were only 3 hits.. | ||
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Pandain
United States12979 Posts
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On December 10 2010 07:48 Pandain wrote: how did i do? You acted suspiciously quiet for most of the game. I didn't even remember you playing for parts of Day 1. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
On December 10 2010 06:58 Kenpachi wrote: yea after me and coag died, my suspicions went on SouthRawrea. I was dead so i couldnt back my opinion also, who was the 4th hit on that day? there were only 3 hits.. watchuu talkin about? I don't remember any 4th hit. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
On December 10 2010 11:22 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: watchuu talkin about? I don't remember any 4th hit. eh? owait.. nvm lol | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Almost no serious scum hunting was done during the game, and there were precious few accusations leveled at any player until Day 3. The problem of course is that scum hunting takes a LOT of time(at least for me). You need to spend hours digging through posts and slowly piecing things together. This is a daunting task, and I think the key to town victory in many cases is to get as many people involved in active scum hunting as possible, by any means possible. That being said, there were many town players this game who I thought played well and showed very solid promise. + Show Spoiler + Not that that necessarily means a lot coming from me  | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
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Ver
United States2186 Posts
The summary of this mafia was: good ideas, bad execution, and luck. No doubt they were crippled by Radfield sporadically having irl issues, but overall the mafia simply didn't have enough initiative and were too content to sit back. Basically you suffered from what plagues most mafias: complacency. After how easy day 1/2 were you didn't really have much to do so everyone pretty much got lazy until Dr H turned up the heat on day 3 and then the mafia were ill prepared. There's no easy solution here, just recognize that complacency has caused many mafia losses from superior positions. Day 1: The primary focus of day 1 should have been to either get Dr H lynched or make his position virtually untenable. Dr H's posts did absolutely no good for the town and he had no proof: he could very easily have been a mafia. There are good reasons why Dr H was town, but that really doesn't matter, but it would have been ever so easy to twist Dr H into appearing as mafia or CE. Mafia definitely let him off way too easily and gave him open room to dominate the town. THAT SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN. It is the mafia's job to instill doubt amongst the players and the game atmosphere. I have won a game as mafia once where 3-4 of our members were glaringly obvious to the town, but through a variety of means subtle and via brute force, we made the town doubt their conclusions just enough to influence the voting towards non-mafia. At the end of the game, the town didn't even realize how they failed to lynch the right people. Good mafia are almost always proactive and don't just sit back. The other good part about focusing on Dr H would be to misdirect the focus off of the lynch target, which is exactly what happened. Radfield did a good job in the thread but he was without enough support. This should have been a doublesided campaign: ridicule Dr H in the thread, and subtly push suspicion on him in pms.As for the lynch, it was simply unlucky that brownbear didn't have internet so he couldn't defend himself. The town should have realized though that mafia simply don't get lynched that easily on day 1, but being good on day 1 requires its own unique skills. Night 1: Barundar- Was not necessarily a bad hit, though one giveaway was his posting style. If you looked through some of his other forum posts, it remained the exact same overall. He did have 1 questionable post agreeing with Dr H , but the mafia should have pm'ed him and tried to get more evidence as he didn't have sufficient evidence to warrant hit. Aidnai- From a thread perspective, there is zero reason to think he is blue. He posted thoughts openly and went about without any fear or hesitation. So now this has to be weighed against the pm radfield received. I can understand why the pm might make them lean that way, but it could also be interpreted as simply the normal town doubting process which I don't think the mafia considered, as mafia don't need to doubt someones innocence. It was a little suspicious, but his thread behavior pointed towards green, and thus mafia should have placed this on the backburner. Deconduo- This isn't really a bad hit from the mafia POV: you simply got unlucky, and deconduo made a great pick. His focus was not quite the same as when he was blue in haunted mafia, but I think(?) the mafia did pick up on his wishywashy, weak opinions and feel of hiding something. Blue Analysis: Scara: Check his post history if you are interested. Even though he didn't live till night, his post history shows quite obviously that he had a role. Coagulation: Ok, so mafia knows a medic claimed or Dr H. Obviously killing him makes Dr H look immensely guilty. Mafia did realize this but they somehow ignored it and didn't focus hard enough. im going to vote doch for mayor if there is mayoral elections. if theres no mayor this game i would strongly urge town to work with doch in his town circle i feel if anyone can be trusted here with town circle he should be the one. He's basically spelling it out for the mafia right here. In addition, while he posts a fair amount, they are all low-content and give the appearance of hiding/shrinking back. Kenpachi: He claimed special townie in order to avoid dying lol. In addition, went into an absolute frenzy to avoid being lynched when normally he is more apathetic. Not much more needs to be said, though the mafia did keep him alive to use as bait in day 2. This worked splendidly. Artanis[xp]: 1) Abnormally few posts 2) Glaring contradiction in saying: The difference is that I now prefer less short, spammy posts in favor of posts that'll actually help town forward instead of driving them in circles then doesn't actually do what he says he does (helping town go forward). 3) His one useful post talks about DTs and circles. 4) As for being inactive; I have always been sort of a lurker, both as mafia and townie. No mention of blue roles. HMMMMMMMM something smells here. Day 2: Mafia made limited interference today but what they did was enough. It was really up to south to get Dr H looking in the wrong direction simply by prodding him to 'look at this guy for x reason' and let Dr H get overswamped and lack focus. iirc Pandain looked pretty guilty by the lynch swap to DTA and the mafia could have framed him pretty easily but nothing was done here. Day 3: Jimbosilvers finally stepped up to the plate and started delivering. However, he was supported by....nobody. Even still, his persistent defense almost reaped dividends when Dr H started publically doubting himself. However the mafia still didn't make a move, even a subtle one by pm's, and JS died instead of YM. However, the day ended with radfield looking in much better shape than he did before it started and the town now squarely focused on Youngminii. Night 4: Don't really know why Pandain was chosen over someone more dangerous like Kavdragon but it didn't seem to matter too much. Day 4: This was the ultimate complacent lynch. There was literally no opposition to Youngminii throughout the entire day. The case against Youngminii was paltry: 'he isn't playing like usual and claimed veteran, this doesn't mix.' Which is certainly all true, but none of it means he must be mafia. The town should have picked up on the absolute lack of defense for YM (I think someone did but was ignored), and the mafia should have staged a little more drama just to make it seem like things weren't so simple and possibly give someone a little cred for defending YM. Day 5: This day's proceedings was better run by the mafia. Mafia pretty much auto won unless SR died, and Radfield/SR staged a little debate while not making it take up much. In addition, Radfield started 'panicking', which made the lynch look a lot more real and, had the game went on long, would have left a mess for the town to sort through. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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I think 6 mafia in a 30 player game is pretty standard (at least, 4 in a 20 player game is fairly standard). A likely KP of 3 to start with(normal formula is mafia #/2 rounded up). Add in a miller and a traitor, and we're probably looking at between 5 and 7 blue roles. As far as what those blue roles may be, I don't know, and it doesn't matter all that much. We get what we get.
