EPTTeam Melee Mini Mafia II
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
| ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
| ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On August 20 2010 05:49 Qatol wrote: It isn't looking like this game will start in time for me. /out Don't do it!!! if Infun and I can both find teamates will we only need 1 more... | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
| ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
| ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Examine Metal Object. Look under Metal Object Examine Timer | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
| ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Now that we have a no lynch,it needs to be today if we use it. Normally I don't favor a no lynch but it might be ok in this situation. The reason I say that is that we still get 2 lyches, if we lynch wrong 2-5 Night Kill 2-4 (LYLO) Lynch Wrong 2-3 Night Kill 2-2 Mafia WIn No lynch 2-6 Night Kill 2-5 Miss Lynch 2-4 Night kill 2-3 (LYLO) Miss lynch 2-2 (Mafia Win) The value I see in a no lynch is that we end up with these two chances and a kill to base our lynches off of. 2/7 and 2/5 With a kill tonight we still have lylo after 2 lynches but our first lynch isn't made off of a kill and we have these chances: 2/8 and 2/6 Of course this could be changed if we have power roles but I am putting forth the worst case scenario as an example. While do lose the benefit of discussion on a lynch target today we still get 2 lynches to discuss and we get today's lynch/no lynch discussion. We also get extra time since we have an additional day to discuss and we get 2 mafia hits before Lylo instead of 1 to help us pick right. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
I played SC2 all yesterday so thats why I didn't get much done in this thread. sorry Regarding the slip up, I don't think we should bandwagon on it but I think we shouldn't dismiss it either. In PYP DTA slipped up day one by mentioning exactly how many members there were and it was forgotten. While the makes assumptions the mafia knows it to be true, so even though that game DTA was defended since everyone assumed there were 4 mafia they would have been less likely to say it being as they at least a little bit know that things could be slightly different. That said I don't even know that this is a slip up since for it to be one then both players would have to be scum. It seems he is replying tho the BB's insinuated accusation that since the post is bad he is scum. Pyrr says well he doesn't post any better when he is town. So I guess the TLDR would be that we shouldn't weight it too heavy but keep it in mind and if one is red the other is more likely to be red as well. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Its ok, Ace is your partner, he is suppose to PM you. + Show Spoiler + j/k I assume it was some one else PMing you I think it is a good point that we can use the no lynch tomorrow to get the extra time if today's fails. Now I think this is slightly worse since today's lynch would be less informed. What this means is that we should proceed with a lynch today, and then shortly before the deadline review all players and see if the leading group is scummy enough. It is still a shot in the dark we no lynch, if the evidence is good we lynch and then no-lynch tomorrow if we were wrong. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Also there is only a 25% chance of us having both but a 50% chance of having a DT which makes the no lynch even better | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
Rereading the thread and catching up on what happened since I went to bed. Just wanted to be sure I don't forget to vote and get mod killed. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
| ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On September 24 2010 08:35 BrownBear wrote: This is extremely dangerous, simply because if we fail we essentially enter into LYLO. No matter who it is, if we misslynch it goes to LYLO, why do you feel that this plan is more dangerous than any other? | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
| ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On September 26 2010 10:51 Incognito wrote: Oops [Vote]Team 3 You just said you were going to vote for team 1, mind clarifying why you switched over without stating a reason. I talked with Foolishness and while I am not sure I believe your claim I think team 6 is the safer lynch. [Vote]Team 6 | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
 | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
of the 3v1 for lynch 1 or 2 are 100% confirmed (depends on if you save yourself or someone else). I know confirmed people aren't everything but it makes the job much easier, the mafia certainly don't want that to happen. Obviously you are way ahead of me on this but these are the 2 most likely to be mafia (with team 2 most likely) 1. LSB and Pyrrhuloxia 2. bumatlarge, Divinek, and SouthRawrea Assuming you are the medic, and because our teams worked together for this lynch then we are the most likely townies: 3. rastaban and Foolishness 8. Infundibulum and Incognito Mafia doesn't want to hit the other person in the first category since it makes them much more obvious. so the hit is most beneficial for them if they go for 3 or 8. | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On September 29 2010 04:58 SouthRawrea wrote: What's stopping mafia from NKing tonight and increasing their chances of winning tomorrow because we have no choice but to lynch? You're being too naive. I don't even know what you are meaning with this. If they don't hit then it is like our medic had 100% success stopping them. What I was doing was giving advice on how the mafia is thinking about the hit, if they don't hit at all then obviously it doesn't matter who is protected. Sure the mafia could pull there hit but do you really think they would do that? The huge problem with that is that if they pull their hit then and lynch wrong, there is a 1/3 chance that the town medic blocks the hit and it is game. and really only a 1/2 chance if we are certain who the mafia is. If do you really think the mafia will try and gamble on a strategy that nearly has a built in 50% chance of losing....  | ||
|
rastaban
United States2294 Posts
On September 30 2010 02:37 Divinek wrote: i was just hoping rasta was gonna pull out another analysis pegging me as mafia again so we could have an easy free mafa lynch. o well im playing different in this game just because i generally feel lazier and the players involved in this game are pretty boring lol so there's no point in flaring things up. Why go out of my way to make big long posts when people are making them for me, especially when most of what they say agrees with my line of thinking as i go through the thread? yeah it's pretty sheepish and looks bad, but i really do need to establish a lazy townie image for in future games when im mob and then i can say look i played shittily as town too! lol i keep decent tabs on people i just never care to post them, that's why pm games are so much more fun. oh bummian where for art thou damn what a contentless post, ya lets lynch them team 2 jokers LOL, you discovered my favorite past time, framing Div. Hey to be fair you weren't innocent when I did it as town  I am really surprised that team i&i suspects my Foolishness and I. Foolishness has been working hardcore as town. The mafia obviously is between team 1 and 2 but it is hard to pinpoint which it is right now. Both have good arguments against them. I have to admit though, Foolishness' arguments towards team 2 seems pretty good. All the votes immediately on team 1 surprised me though as i thought most peopel agreed 2 should be next. | ||
| ||
