EPTTL Mafia XVIII
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 17 2010 02:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: For anyone in the general know how, and medics feel free to not prot me. However, Ver has tried to guess my role, as well as actively pm people this game. Both are actions Ver rarely takes. Read earlier in the thread and you will find that he "RC'd" to BM. I will spend some time once ive showered going over his posts and analyzing him, but he is not as safe an option to prot any more than I am. Okay, I've just about caught up with this thread. This post is egregiously incorrect in its categorization of Ver's behavior during Mafia games. Ver frequently starts off a mafia game by posting two or three huge posts, and then communicates by PMs at night. This has been the case in every game I've ever played with Ver, and he's not playing any differently. When mafia, he usually posts less often day 2 and day 3, and when townie, Ver has tended towards PM'ing a specific group. In previous games, he's also tried guessing my role multiple times via PMs. That Ver might not like playing through PMs does not prevent him from doing so, and he does. I apologize for being so inactive. I was away all of Saturday and most of Sunday. When I came back, I had 55 or so pages to tackle, and it was just overwhelming because of the amount of garbage in the thread which resulted from many individuals intentionally and rather blatantly ignoring the response posts of those whom they accused. Just an example: Ace is often accused of being mafia, and even though he is not contributing as much as he usually does, he does defend himself. Quite literally pages upon pages of responses to Ace's posts are complete misreadings of what he says. Everything ends up getting buried, and "inactives" like me get frustrated at how no responses can be made to those posts because there are forty pages to go. And this isn't just with Ace. Everyone's posts are being misinterpreted or skewed in some form or another, and more importantly, many are being overlooked (most notably, Ver's). Spammers respond to Chezinu's and BM's nonsense posts like they aren't half-assed troll attempts (chezinu more so than BM). It's just all very depressing. Perhaps on a more positive note, I really like the way "madnessman" is posting so far. Everything is well-thought out, and none of it is useless. Keep it up. BM: Roleclaiming medic is an incredibly stupid move in this game, every bit as much as in any other game. As has already been pointed out, both mafia teams are simply trying to kill each other. In the event that one team is better than the other, the town should use medics to defend key mafia players, in order to be able to fulfill its own victory conditions. In this situation, the stronger mafia team will try to snipe the medics. Publicly RC'in medic makes this a rather easy task, even if he isn't necessarily confirmed (this is in general, not just redtooth), and takes away a stalling weapon the town still has. I have contributed absolutely nothing this game, and I intend to help out now if I can. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
You're argument doesn't really make sense, BM. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 17 2010 06:41 Vivi57 wrote: noone would kill a confirmed medic, claiming medic is just a risk because the other family might think the "medic" is mafia trying to claim. A legit medic wouldn't be hit because from the mafia's point of view, any hit that's not on the other family is a miss. err, not true. The following is an extremely simplified situation during which a "legit medic" would be hit. Mafia 1 - 1 person left. Known to be mafia Mafia 2 - 2 people left 1 Medic left. Medic protects the person known to be mafia which prevents mafia 2 from winning the game. Mafia 2 has to kill the medic in order to win. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 17 2010 06:43 Bill Murray wrote: you're saying that the mafia will be able to use them if they come into the spotlight? that's the time they WON'T get benefits from them. I would contend that YOUR argument makes no sense. If medics will not be killed for roleclaiming, they can roleclaim. Mafia A could need the medics later on to survive. Mafia B could need the medics later on to survive. The town could need the medics later on to survive. Mafia A can not lynch the medics to lower its KP and in case it needs to survive later. Mafia B can not lynch the medics to lower its KP and in case it needs to survive later. The town can not lynch the medics because they need to keep both mafias alive. The medics will not be killed. It is OK to roleclaim to be a medic. They would "use" them in the sense that they would have greater control over their deaths. Refer to my previous post for an example of that. I think my argument is cleared up a little bit by the example. BM, medics might very well be killed for roleclaiming, just not immediately. The time when they RC doesn't matter because that action, at any point, might result in making the mafia's job easier (that job being finding the medics protecting the other mafia family and sniping them). Am I being clear? | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 17 2010 09:50 Ver wrote: If someone was protected they should always call out that they took a hit. In this case, that would be me. I took a hit last night. Good. Just reminding everyone that this means one of three things: a) Ver is town-aligned b) Ver is on Mafia X and took a hit from Mafia Y c) Ver is on Mafia X or Y who stacked hits on someone else now dead and are having Ver claim that he took a hit last night to gain admittance into townie circles. Their likeliness or unlikeliness doesn't matter. They're all possibilities. I'll help with the profiles in a moment. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 17 2010 10:27 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: d) Ver was hit by a mad hatter bomb placed by BC. Then we'd still be missing a mafia hit. I guess it's possible that two medics protected successfully, but no one's spoken up yet. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
[spoiler] Ace + Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started. First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on. Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid. Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this. I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon. On February 14 2010 11:58 Ace wrote: ok, you build that profile ^_^ I'm not an elitist, I'm just honest. Some people can't handle the truth. On February 14 2010 12:06 Ace wrote: Ok L, try using that the "40% of people are Mafia argument". It doesn't help. Blindly pointing fingers in the chance you may nab someone is just as bad if it were a game where 20% of the people are Mafia. Stop it. You're wrong. On February 14 2010 12:11 Ace wrote: No, come up with new plans. This entire discussion around whether to use Clues on Day 1 is so revealing already. Like I said it doesn't matter how many Mafia are in the game, using Clues to catch people isn't going to change the fact that they are subjective call outs. See the point now? On February 14 2010 12:16 Ace wrote: The clues don't point to me because I'm innocent. Did you really think I'd say "yes yes, Officer those do seem to be my prints on the gun!" - lol. We should NEVER rely on clues are our primary weapon for catching Mafia. Remember they are based on interpretation NOT fact. This is why I said it DOES NOT MATTER how many more people in the game are Mafia, it's always going to come down to guesswork. At the very least we can focus on behavior. Look at all the people vying for clue work when it's an easily acceptable fact by anyone that has played before that it's a bad idea. I don't have any suspects, the game just started. I tend to think things out very carefully and lay traps out well in advance to see how funny people's behaviors are. On February 14 2010 12:27 Ace wrote: because I'm not going to sit here and point fingers for no reason. I won't sit here and start revenge accusations just because the clues don't point to me. I won't go looking for people and say HEY THE CLUES POINT TO THIS GUY NOT ME - that doesn't help the town. It just invites one more person into the ruckus and then they have incentive to point to someone else, etc. That's just going to start a bunch of arguments. So far that's 2 things I've got you on that are incentive to cause town uprising aka Mafia Behavior. Come on, one more thing so I can check you on the list and start my epic post. On February 14 2010 12:33 Ace wrote: /slams forehead into wall Listen, let's get this straight. Clues only point to someone when it's confirmed through either the persons death or a Detective Clue Check. That's it. The clues don't point to me until one of those 2 conditions are fulfilled so stop saying it. On February 14 2010 12:37 Ace wrote: L there is no confusion to resolve. I'm not going to sit here and argue about clue content because it's SUBJECTIVE. I will debate on whether or not it's valid to even discuss over them at length since that is something that can be supported with facts: majority of games we play with clue discussion lead to lots of innocent death. See. It's not that hard to call you out on your bullshit ^_^ On February 14 2010 12:44 Ace wrote: my incentive is there. I'm already the shining beacon of innocence I always am. If I tried to do anything radically different from normal I'd be labeled as Mafia and gg'd. On February 14 2010 13:13 Ace wrote: Stop thinking about like it's 1strictly v1v1. If a Mafia member gets elected, the other Mafia + the town are better served by killing him. This is only problematic for the town because now the other Mafia members can blend in with the town easier. Until one of their own are outted by the ton/other Mafia family and they have to choose between following the crowd or saving their own ^_^ This game is more like a bunch of loose, temporary allegiances than a 3-way death dance. On February 14 2010 13:34 Ace wrote: If you look at Ver's post you'll realize why most of simply won't believe that. On February 14 2010 13:35 Ace wrote: that last post was directed @ Hobbes On February 14 2010 14:17 Ace wrote: Shit is falling in to place beautifully. Read the last paragraph Redtooth just wrote. Seems like L is trying to FORCE the town to believe 4-5 clues are tied to me doesn't it? On February 14 2010 14:43 Ace wrote: It's not puzzling Zato. I've done the same thing redtooth has done in numerous games, and every single time the person turned out to be innocent. Really, it's very easy to see when someone is building a case on bullshit. On February 14 2010 15:09 Ace wrote: Stop trying to make it sound like there are lots of doubts concerning me. That's only from a few of you.Thanks. On February 14 2010 15:26 Ace wrote: Come on L, you're really trying hard to force my death here. This is pretty bad play :/ When I flip green, you should just offer yourself to be voted off. On February 14 2010 15:27 Ace wrote: Yea Zato, I play as though I don't give a shit and that I'm above the law. Didn't you get the memo? On February 14 2010 16:05 Ace wrote: I'd vote for Ver or BC because I have more trust in them than any other candidate. My rule for elected positions is to vote for good, sensible players that won't do anything radical unless something out of the blue pops up and gives me a different reason. @Hobbes: If someone keeps egging me on based on clues, then I die and flip green you should lynch the accuser. You forgot to mention that in your post. Everyone should be held accountable. If we let people point fingers and an innocent gets lynched and they get away with an "oops", then everyone is going to do it. On February 14 2010 16:11 Ace wrote: Why not redtooth? <---haven't casted a vote yet On February 14 2010 16:32 Ace wrote: @Hobbes: Don't worry. There's more than enough time for Ver to come back and make a stronger argument. Hell the post he made about not basing actions off of clues has done more to make himself legit in my book than anything any other candidate has done besides BC. On February 14 2010 18:24 Ace wrote: Possible Mayor candidates Ace Ver BC everyone else On February 14 2010 19:02 Ace wrote: maybe because I don't seem to be in a group with anyone else? <--rolls for doly all the time On February 14 2010 19:32 Ace wrote: Chezinu still phishing me in PMs even after all these games v_v On February 14 2010 22:55 Ace wrote: "let them kill each other off now" - and how do we do that? It's not like we KNOW who they are. I disagree with so much of you're post. You're first paragraph is blatantly wrong because clues aren't always right. The very fact that you don't even know what automatically constitutes a clue makes you wrong on that too. On February 15 2010 11:18 Ace wrote: and another logical fallacy I've found. Get the rope ready. On February 15 2010 11:33 Ace wrote: No Dr.H made a few very critical mistakes. In fact the first one was even thinking that me posting aggressively implies that I'm suspect. That's just wrong on so many levels because I tend to play aggressive majority of the time regardless of my role. Then he tried to link myself and redtooth. In fact he's done this several times in an effort to say my death will imply information about him when we haven't even done anything that shows we are on the same side. The most telling example I have is the trap I set. See I knew that regardless of what role L has, he'd attack me. In fact it's amusing that he does this all the time then people that complain about us arguing. Those people are actually my PRIME SUSPECTS because every time L and I argue a shitload of information seeps out. I'm sure L already has a list of these soon to be dead people lined up though. The main part of my trap was seeing if anyone was going to shadow L. You know, loosely agree with some of his posts no matter how wrong they are and then try and implicate me. The mere fact that you propose lynching me on Day 1 based on CLUES is a telling point that you want to off me so bad. Even L stepped back for a second to re-asses but you kept on with the accusation. However there was one other thing that tipped me over the edge. How is it possible that you are currently reading the thread, I'm not even posting and you want to lynch me and you skip Caller's post? That was probably the biggest piece of positive information in the last ~10 hours and you chose to ignore it. You are definitely not pro-town. You're Mafia. On February 15 2010 11:35 Ace wrote: don't forget how he tries to tie loose implications up as "solid" facts. Seriously this is so lol. On February 15 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: That's not my fault meeple. People should do their homework if they want to play with the big boys. I read both games hosted recently expecting some of you to play in the next big game. Laziness isn't an excuse for messing up. Dr.H there's another more specific post I have coming up. Sit tight, that seat is about to get a lot hotter. On February 15 2010 12:20 Ace wrote: Of course you can't see it, cuz you're not me ^_^ Don't worry about Iaaan. Dr.H comes off way more suspicious for the mere fact he's equating my behavior as Mafia-ish. Really do we have to go through this every game where someone keeps trying to get a bandwagon against me? Either way like I said if you're going to try and use clues as the motivating factor for lynches this game then the town has to agree to hold anyone responsible for mistakes. If you start a bandwagon, or are a main contributor in the lynching of a townie you deserve to be lynched off the bat. No exceptions. In the event I die, when I flip green I really don't want anyone to say "well it was a mistaken clue interpretation". On February 15 2010 12:29 Ace wrote: ok cool, no problem. Just make sure that in the event of my death you offer yourself up for lynching when I flip green ok? On February 15 2010 12:35 Ace wrote: I'm not bullying. I'm just hammering home the idea that no one is getting off with any "oops" situations like we've had in the past. The game with Qatol as a Mafia Mayor was the worst example of it I've ever seen and we need to start correcting it. On February 15 2010 12:42 Ace wrote: oh dear /facepalm On February 15 2010 13:05 Ace wrote: I don't think any one is taking this personal. This game has been extremely normal. On February 15 2010 13:09 Ace wrote: Also I just ignore most of your "arguments" because honestly, they are pretty bad. In past games when I posted long defenses of myself and wound up being innocent people felt like morons for not reading it. So in past games I've just begun to blatantly ignore it, hoping that others just read your post and see it for themselves. The fact that me "vigorously" defending myself must mean I'm mafia is so beyond stupid I'm hoping we've got enough sensible people working in the backgrounds on all of this. Either way, it just makes me feel more important and makes my ego bigger. I love the fact that even when I'm just sitting back relaxing the "Ace must be Mafia!" plays start coming. Just goes to show you how great a player I am that people go out of there way to make themselves fail. On February 15 2010 13:11 Ace wrote: Sure. Why not? Also I act like I'm above the law and don't really care in most Mafia games. In the past ~4 games I've tried to just chill, sit back and let others do the work but then people become sheepish so I have to step in. This game I was called out before I even posted and I'm accused of being Mafia because I'm defending myself. Seriously this is getting pretty sad. On February 15 2010 14:41 Ace wrote: Redtooth remember most of these guys aren't used to games with so much information flowing around. They'll learn the hard way. On February 15 2010 14:53 Ace wrote: and killing myself or Redtooth gives you what information? Please break this down because so far not a single one of you has told us WHAT information we'll be getting. This is why I keep saying you're being illogical in your "arguments". On February 15 2010 15:16 Ace wrote: If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support. It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect. Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please. For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong. Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia. On February 15 2010 15:18 Ace wrote: so...because decaf and Abenson voted for me if I flip red that makes them suspicious? How about when I flip green? You don't get any further information about either of them. Hence, you're still on the wrong track. On February 15 2010 15:22 Ace wrote: I'm not blue, I'm green. [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:33 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:23 DoctorHelvetica wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:16 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:04 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Information: If flip red we can analyze: Vocal Supporters Who voted for you for mayor, particularly while giving little reason Vocal accusers (L, Myself, laaan) are very likely not in the same mafia family as you People trying to distract attention from accusations toward you without offering a real argument A relatively large amount of posts to analyze from the perspective of a mafia from a specific family If you flip green, it's fair to analyze: Vocal accusers seem more suspicious Voters for the most vocal accusers People who suddenly bandwagon against you late in the thread/without reason[/QUOTE] If I flip red you can't analyze my vocal supporters. There aren't any. No one has supported me so far, only people who have said you guys may be wrong. That isn't support. It doesn't matter if you're not in the same family - you'd still be suspect. Who has tried to distract attention from this argument? List them please. For the very last time, you can't analyze my posts. In fact before you even try and get me killed it might be a wise idea and analyze them now to see what you can find. And by analyze I don't mean "hey guys, look what Ace said" but more akin to what links if any you can see to other people. I ask this sincerely because before you try and kill me on the basis I'm Mafia you should do this BEFORE offing me to make sure you have some clue of what you are doing. Needless to say I think you're so off tangent so this will hopefully show you why you're wrong. Now if you lynch me when I'm innocent you don't even get any more information based on my last paragraph. You have nothing to link me on. Nothing. you'd start the next day with the SAME information as the last. If you can prove me wrong, do it now by examining my posts and see what you can find that is going to be so mind blowing to the town it gets us a path to the Mafia. [/QUOTE] [quote]You said yourself if you flip green, that myself/L/laaan are likely mafia. Saying there is no information to be gleaned from your death either way is silly.[/quote] Look at my paragraph before the last then re-read what I was addressing. It makes perfect sense. [quote] I wouldn't call ver a vocal supporter of you, but like redtooth said. If you are mafia, your allies will likely not vehemently defend you but perhaps try to discourage the use of clue analysis. Ver made a post a while back saying that "anyone discouraging clue usage is probably innocent" and it seems to me (please correct me if I'm wrong) that you tried to discourage redtooth from making anti-ver posts with your PM to him. redtooth just now has added a fair amount to the case for you being scum. You're saying my suspicion isn't based on any analysis, but I've stated many times it has to do with your dodging L's questions, being unwilling to provide alternative solutions, and the biggest basis of your argument being "fuck you I'm ace i dont need to defend myself cuz im ace"[/QUOTE] Ver, myself, MBH, and other have discouraged the use of clue analysis early on in past games. We are KNOWN to do this. This is why I said you pointing this out doesn't help your case. It's really not a big deal. You're trying to out think people when there isn't even a situation present. And yes you're wrong. You should ask redtooth for the PM if you want clarity. I didn't try to influence redtooth in any way. If I wanted to do that I probably would have kept PMing him. He already showed me he was slightly distrustful of me when he cut the conversation short. For the record I don't even agree with Ver that anyone discouraging clue usage is possibly innocent because that's too wide of a blanket statement. How does redtooth's post push me further to scum? PLEASE explain this. Honestly you're really talking lots of bull right now. I address arguments that warrant attention. I'm not here to constantly repeat myself. All the answers are in the posts. If you need help reading, ask for it. Like really you're so wrong and I hate to say it's because you're a newb but it's getting very close to that point. THINK before you post. Seriously. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:39 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:31 Zato-1 wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 12:15 Bill Murray wrote: the only problem with your analysis, though, my friend... is that you're already thinking from the perspective of an opposing mafia. Why? WHY ZATO?[/QUOTE] Game theory. When you have dynamic decision-making, in which the outcome of my decisions depends upon the decisions you take, the correct way to approach the problem is to determine your optimal course of action first, and once I know what you're going to do and therefore the payoff of each of my own choices, only then do I start looking at what is the optimal course of action for myself. Sorry for the completely off-topic post, but I actually love game theory. Prisoner's dilemma and all that shiz- the very same reasoning that brought me to the conclusion, many pages ago, that mafia will mostly be lurking, so we should focus less on the really active players and more on those who are making shitty, short and content-free posts, and also on those who aren't posting at all.[/QUOTE] As someone who's taking courses in AI and a large part of it was Game Theory, I'd disagree that Mafia would be lurking because somebody has to win this election. BUT - I do agree that we should be looking at the crap-content posters. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:41 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 15:36 DoctorHelvetica wrote: How does it push you further to scum? lol Because he provided reasons why he became distrustful of you and since he knows your posting style better than I do, I give a bit of credence to analysis. Why wouldn't additional reasons you may be mafia make me distrust you more? [/QUOTE] But it's not EVIDENCE, it's conjecture. That's like me saying I don't trust Bill Murray - he's obviously more scummy than before! See how this is nonsense? Didn't I tell you to THINK before posting? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 17:34 Ace wrote: Bill Murray, the guy that's spamming the thread is a safer option than Chezinu? time to put you on the short bus. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 00:55 Ace wrote: Can you explain how clues link me to both Mafia families? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 01:06 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 00:59 citi.zen wrote: Ace - I already did - see my post on page 45. I am not going to explain my post person by person. Read my post and make up your own minds. Think critically, at this point nobody can "demonstrate" anything beyond doubt.[/QUOTE] Which is exactly why I asked the question. If you say the clues link me to both Mafia families it seems like you're trying to force the clues onto me rather than the other way around. How is it even possible that with so many players being Mafia this game that this can even happen?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 01:18 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 01:11 meeple wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 01:06 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 00:59 citi.zen wrote: Ace - I already did - see my post on page 45. I am not going to explain my post person by person. Read my post and make up your own minds. Think critically, at this point nobody can "demonstrate" anything beyond doubt.[/QUOTE] Which is exactly why I asked the question. If you say the clues link me to both Mafia families it seems like you're trying to force the clues onto me rather than the other way around. How is it even possible that with so many players being Mafia this game that this can even happen?[/QUOTE] I think he meant it more in the way that there are more than one clue connected to you, so even if we're misinterpreting one of them, it gives a greater chance that one of the two clues refers to you. Correct me if I'm wrong though[/QUOTE] Ok I get that. But my point I made from way back is that clues are subjective. So we don't know if they are right or not. So with that in mind no one finds it strange that there seem to be so many coincidental clues being attached to me by multiple players on Day 1?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 01:39 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 01:18 citi.zen wrote: The clues are confusing and not sure things, absolutely. With that caveat in mind, here are the connections to you Ace: [quote]Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.[/quote] - look at your profile pic. [quote]Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light.[/quote] - Your profile quote: "If darkness is bad, why does it hide you? If light is good, why does it blind you?" Obviously they cant both be right at the same time, but the connection is there in both cases. You sure respond very promptly every time someone points a finger at you. If you were equally proactive in other areas of the game I would think it much more likely you are the new Hobbes. Right now however you remain high on my shortlist.[/QUOTE] I don't know citizen, I'd figure trying to defend myself would be the wise choice instead of letting people off me with no resistance. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 06:05 Ace wrote: Instead of criticizing people for making useless posts how about you make keep the ball rolling Caller? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 06:19 Ace wrote: Well Caller, it's kind of hard for me to really do much so far since from Day 1 about 4 people have called for my head. I'd think spending my times vehemently proclaiming my innocence was a better use of my time. I'm not trolling at all, show me when I did?  Besides, MTF and Camlito haven't played in over a year. I highly doubt there's a town circle already unless people are doing the blind faith thing again. Also I don't agree that DTs should roleclaim early. If I were Mafia I'd kill them asap. Even if my win condition is to murder the other family why would I want them to have help? DTs are a double edged sword in that regard. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:09 Ace wrote: @Caller: How Am I lying? Explain please. @Dr.H: There wasn't a big backlash of people against my clue connection. Please, this is like the 5th time you've over exaggerated a situation. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:19 Ace wrote: Really Iaaan? So if that was the case why wouldn't you have thought I was innocent since only 1 person (redtooth) even gave an attempt to defend me? You have a very funny set of standards there sir. L even said he PM'd Empyrean. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:14 Ace wrote: Maybe you should stop taking jabs at the vets, be quiet and stop complaining? Like it or not or whether you believe it or not most of us are better than you, and do have more experience than you. So keep it moving or take your whining somewhere else. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote: god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.[/QUOTE] I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] and I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:28 Ace wrote: Before writing this I had 5581 posts, and you have 1585. I think something fishy is going on. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:37 Ace wrote: Don't worry redtooth, I believe you man. Some people just are preset in the beliefs so it's a waste of time trying to even discuss with them. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:42 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:39 Bill Murray wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote: god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.[/QUOTE] I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] and I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] "Mutual Chainsaw Defense, where two players defend each other by attacking each others' attackers. This is a major scumtell,"[/QUOTE] This doesn't apply to me. Not only am I way too good to even fall for that, but I'm innocent. So yes, you fail. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:45 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:42 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:39 Bill Murray wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote: god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.[/QUOTE] I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] and I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] "Mutual Chainsaw Defense, where two players defend each other by attacking each others' attackers. This is a major scumtell,"[/QUOTE] This doesn't apply to me. Not only am I way too good to even fall for that, but I'm innocent. So yes, you fail. [/QUOTE] All of your arguments basically boil down to "fuk u im ace and im smarter than u so shut up"[/QUOTE] Hey I didn't climb up on this pedestal, you guys put me up to it. Can you blame me? [/QUOTE][QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:45 Ace wrote: god here we go again. I quit. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:49 Ace wrote: Why would you roleclaim? Seriously why? L stop crying, please. Your tears are are wetting up my bullet proof vest. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:52 Ace wrote: But you can't be verified yet and the election isn't over so why did you RC? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:54 Ace wrote: Now you know how it feels to have all the attention on you huh? ^_^[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:58 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:55 L wrote: I'm pretty sure I'm going to have to kill someone because of what just happened. [/QUOTE] How did I know you'd use that as an excuse? Paint yourself red more please. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:01 Ace wrote: This happened with Chezinu when he was innocent, so it's not a clear scum tell. The people that voted after it was close are more suspicious looking, not the initial switchers. v_v[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:07 Ace wrote: Seeing L upset made me lulz [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:09 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:08 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:07 Ace wrote: Seeing L upset made me die during the day 2 lynch [/QUOTE] Fixed. [/QUOTE] It's been established Pardoner is the more critical position this game. Calm yourself. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:14 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:11 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:09 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:08 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:07 Ace wrote: Seeing L upset made me die during the day 2 lynch [/QUOTE] Fixed. [/QUOTE] It's been established Pardoner is the more critical position this game. Calm yourself. [/QUOTE] Yeah, but I wanted to kill you with my mayor lynch and have redtooth forced into the unenviable position of pming me about why he would or wouldn't pardon you. [/QUOTE] Except if you killed me when I flip green you'd have to explain yourself since you said you'd kill Empyrean. But of course I'm sure you didn't really think I'd vote for you anyway. *shrug*[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:19 Ace wrote: How much are you willing to put on that L? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:33 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:27 L wrote: And that's why I wanted to kill Ace instead. [/QUOTE] I knew you'd use it as an excuse. Liar. You're clue analysis is WRONG. Just like I said it was. GG. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:34 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:28 Fulgrim wrote: And Empyrean was green, good job 1st day clues. We now need a list of people that should be Role checked, for future lynches/hits, or to have some confirmed greens in the town.[/QUOTE] Yup. And now look at them go, well it didn't fit him so it must fit this guy! This is exactly why I said subjective analysis isn't what we should be primarily going on. So where are all the people that said killing Empyrean would reveal more information to us? What did that do for us? Step up and be accountable. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:36 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:32 Amber[LighT] wrote: hay thanks for listening, cya tomorrow ![/QUOTE] hey if it makes you feel better I didn't tease you this game and actually read your post <3[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:38 Ace wrote: So he convinced you he was innocent because he forgot to vote? lol. Really you expect me to believe that? You're full of it. Give up L. You're clearly Mafia. Wrong on clue analysis, and "convinced" he's innocent because he said he forgot to vote if you didn't PM him. Right. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:42 Ace wrote: I haven't eaten in 3 days. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote: My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there. Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:51 Ace wrote: oh and thanks for the half compliment, makes me feel all goody inside ^_^ *pedestal raises higher*[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:56 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:53 Fulgrim wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote: My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there. Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway. [/QUOTE] So you took it away from him because you realized that having an elected official that careless would be horrible for the town? Or because you wanted him to be rolechecked?[/QUOTE] No I switched because I don't like Day 1 roleclaimers that can't be verified in general. It doesn't matter what I did in those 5 minutes because I was never going to keep my vote on L. You're making a big deal about the wrong thing. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 10:18 Ace wrote: Listen, for the last time my vote isn't suspicious. I went from Redtooth -> L - > Redtooth in the span of a few minutes and anyone reading this thread knows I wasn't going to vote for L seriously. How can you continue to question me but NOT look at the people that tipped over Redtooth in becoming Mayor? Come on, you can't say with a straight face I'm more suspect than yourself in that regard. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 10:27 Ace wrote: ^_^ they see me rollin, they hatin[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 10:32 Ace wrote: aww shizzle my nizzle! [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 10:44 Ace wrote: *yawn* Maybe if you people just let me be instead of calling me out on ridiculous "arguments" we wouldn't be having this problem? L has been far from reasonable and I've already showed how. But keep skipping my posts and saying I'm not contributing when clearly I have been. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 10:51 Ace wrote: Zato what have YOU done to help the town? Tell me please. Besides saying you're tired of reading so and so's posts and that lurkers are suspicious. My mere presence in the game generates 10x more discussion and analysis than you could have ever provided. They see me rollin![/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 10:49 Ace wrote: Of course I am ^_^ . I've tried doing direct logic like 7 games in a row and people still didn't believe me even when I was clearly innocent. So from now on I'm settling for short, indirect proofs that rely on people to read the post of those attacking me to get the complete picture. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 11:04 Ace wrote: @madnessman: If going with your post let's assume redtooth is Mafia: Go back to when he claimed Medic. I switched my vote off. Then I switch back on, with Emp and BM both voting for him also. With EMP flipping green it's not 100% certain that it was a Mafia split that tipped him over. If that's the case that means looking at the entire vote list, more accurately Bill Murray who was the deciding vote would "solve" your scenario. It would actually look more suspicious if Redtooth and BM had loose ties, aka barely talking to each other in the thread as that's surely a common mafia tell when none of them are in danger. However, I'm more interested in the early voters. With 2 Mafia families neither can wait around for swing votes unless they felt their candidates were strong enough to get those votes early on their own. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 11:06 Ace wrote: Interesting Fulgrim, I didn't know we had vigilantes in this game.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 14:11 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:32 Malongo wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote: My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there. Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway. [/QUOTE] I disagree here Ace. From mafia pov its direct that knowing all the bgs-> confirmed townies or at least few chances of mafia from the other family + 3 votes is huge. Think about this: this game is more likely to go until 20 players remain unless one family is absolutely demolishing the other. In this case having a mafia having 3 votes and clearing up the targets with the bgs list is lot better than 2 pardons overall. Having a mafia mayor is a huge advantage against the other mafia, having a pardoner *may* save one of your foes but its not like the other mafia cant target him anyways next night. As you see pardoner <<<< mayor for a mafia player. [/quote] Being that redtooth doesn't have a large group of support being Mayor isn't that great even with 3 votes. Pardoner on the other hand saves your faam from a lynch and forces the other Mafia to have to hit the guy. Who knows what the Pardoner can convince the town about his fellow scum in that time frame. That's a sweet trade. The only way I'd say Mafia Mayor > Pardoner is IF they have BGs they never have to reveal and that don't get killed. Otherwise there's no power play there imo. Either way I'm glad he got it over L. Yay. [quote] So the point is, what is redtooth going to do about his claim¿ The best way to set this up is : Redtooth self claimed medic declares his target for protection before the night. This way the other family /assuming redtooth is mafia/ has the chance to hit that target and unreveal redtooth. It is win for that family because then they force the town to lynch him if he turns nonmedic, and it is win for that family in case the target survives because they can play knowing that redtooth is not in the other mafia. Thoughts¿ [/QUOTE] This scenario dies under 2 conditions: 1.) You need to know that the target is going to get HIT in the first place, not protected by Medics and isn't a Veteran. If the player gets hit, we need to know which of these conditions was satisfied. Then you have to verify the guy that got hit is pro-town since he'd have no incentive to lie. 2.) Target gets dbl tapped. If this happens and Redtooth is indeed a Medic he'd look guilty. We'd have no idea if the person he protected was hit by multiple people. In fact knowing the idea is to confirm Redtooth via this way why wouldn't they want to stack the hit, or take the chance the other family sends the hit too? It's not an easy thing to confirm him without Vigilantes since our evidence comes from scum who I'm sure don't want to help us in any way. Also the possible loss for the town is a waste of protection if he is legit. If he isn't oh well, let's lynch him! [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 14:14 Ace wrote: So like I said, top Mafia suspect for now is L. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 14:18 Ace wrote: can you give me the revised idea then? I'd like to hear it once so I don't read it and make any mistakes ^_^[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 14:28 Ace wrote: Ok but what will that do? If you don't get hit that doesn't prove anything about either of you.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 14:38 Ace wrote: No. What I'm saying is if you don't get hit then your plan hasn't done anything besides forced Redooth to protect you if he is indeed legit. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 19:26 Ace wrote: Even though Vivi is wrong about me(as expected) it's funny to see him say I'm in the same Mafia family as BC because BC defended me. Lol. Seriously, with so many people accusing me of being scum with no proof that actually makes it more likely I'm town.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 19:35 Ace wrote: should be like me, I only put faith in my bullet proof vest. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 21:33 Ace wrote: You make it sound as if defending myself is a bad idea Ver. Also don't you think it's odd that multiple people have tried to get me killed already? That surely has to raise some alarms right? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 21:34 Ace wrote: Also, Infundibulum should be protected. I smoked weed with him in PM land, he seems legit. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 22:49 Ace wrote: There's a flaw in your logic. It doesn't matter if Mafia only want to kill other Mafia, they want to appear as town. Hence, they'll hunt down anyone to appear as hunting scum. ^_^[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:29 Ace wrote: Don't have much time, but Townies listen to Scamp and LucaWoj. Under NO circumstances should anyone reveal they are a medic. Those are our trump cards because whichever side is "winning" the shooutout can't be allowed to run wild. Bill Murray you're actually one of my top 3 suspects now. No purely because of the spam, but because you've been wrong multiple times. Not even Amber[light] or Vivi57 have missed this many times in a single game. Feels as though you're trying to pull off the clueless role. Redtooth Chezinu isn't a confirmed DT. Don't get why you are protecting him unless you feel he's the only credible pro-town player at the moment? Also I forgot if it was you that made the "DTs can safely claim" post, and since I'm about to leave I can't check. But if anyone checks this information out and see that you made the argument, or supported it you're getting lynched tomorrow. That would show a huge contradiction in what you said and then your decision to protect Chezinu. Of course I hope that's not the case ^_^ I'll be playing for real from now on. Let's hope I don't die tonight ^_^[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:34 Ace wrote: You don't have to trust anyone. PMs from Ver don't even matter, who cares what he thinks you are? You've missed on, or just flat out got lost in a few discussions. Some of those were pretty simple ideas that you got mixed up on and since I don't think you're an idiot I'm not buying it. Ok I'm out of here now. Foolishness put this one in your NOBODY CARES files ^_^[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 10:18 Ace wrote: I should have made more bets. [/QUOTE] | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
Zato-1 + Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 08:39 Zato-1 wrote: My impressions: It's evident that two horsement killed Qatol. But if this is a clue pointing at the mafioso who killed him, how can there be two horsemen? It makes me think of the Chaos Knight from DotA, a horseman who can create illusions of himself with his Phantasm ultimate. After looking through... 51 profiles... I can't really connect this to anyone at this time. As to the other clues, there's a torch that comes from the side opposite the horsemen (points to a mafioso in the opposite family), a crazed psycopath who laughs and moves swiftly through the shadows, and someone that shines a lot, makes people explode and is on the team opposite the crazed psycopath. On February 14 2010 08:57 Zato-1 wrote: On another note- Listen up, fellow townies, because this is important: In a standard Town-versus-Mafia game, pointing out clues, behavior analysis and any other info that might lead us to the identities of mafia is always good. After all, it's a zero-sum game, us vs. them, if they lose then we win. This game is different. If 'they' lose, by which I mean mafia members start dying, this will not necessarily be to our advantage. To illustrate my point, imagine there's 7 members of the Gambino family left alive, and 3 members of the Sumiyoshi family. Killing off additional members of the Sumiyoshi family in fact works against us- we're letting the Gambino family win. In fact, we actively do NOT want to publicly reveal the identities of the remaining Sumiyoshi family members in this example- we'd just be handing those names to the Gambino family on a platter so they can kill them at night. Is this piece of info relevant? Not now, at any rate. But it might be later on in the game, if one of the mafia families starts hemorrhaging members and the other one doesn't. Feel free to post any serious leads you think you might have. Just remember that when we're getting leads on potential mafia members, we're also cluing in the mafia family to which that person doesn't belong to. On February 14 2010 09:29 Zato-1 wrote: It... does seem to look that way. "If darkness is bad, why does it hide you? If light is good, why does it blind you?" There are numerous references to the horsemen hiding in the shadows, and then to using light to blind dreamflower. I'm still not 100% convinced that this is all referring to Ace, but whatever doubt remains on my mind is only from the fact that day 1 clue analysis should be taken with a metric ton of salt. On February 14 2010 13:46 Zato-1 wrote: I like how instead of refuting the claims, you make yourself sound so high and mighty that it's preposterous these suspicions were cast in the first place, therefore you don't need to give any explanations to anyone. Yes, I agree that I contributed to casting a light of suspicion on you, based on L's post. Given how blatantly your profile matched the Day 1 clues, I'd say raising an eyebrow is warranted- but enough of that. It's derailing the conversation, since you're obviously less interested in attacking the arguments made against you than you are in attacking their proponents. Without any Vigis this game, most of the KP lies in the mafia families, so we want to paint targets on mafia members' heads. Your math was more or less correct: We need 16-17 mafia dead in order to win, and our numbers cannot drop below 5. With 6 KP a night in mafia hands (who are looking at a universe of targets of 10 mafia and 31 townies for a ~75% chance of hitting a town member if chosen at random), plus our very own 1 KP from a lynch (with a universe 20 mafia and 31 town targets for ~60% chance of lynching one of our own if chosen at random), we have 6 or 7 days on our hands- as you said, not nearly enough to lynch the 14+ mafia we need to kill (I'm assuming they'll manage to kill at least two or three of each others' ranks in the process). If decisions are left to chance due to a lack of likely targets, we lose. Things we ought to do by tomorrow: 1. Get a list of people who haven't posted. 2. Point out anything that seems suspicious. You may lead their posters to gruesome deaths at mafia hands, but again- a lack of leads is just not good enough for us. We need to feed the mafia families info that is more likely to get them to kill other mafiosos than random chance, for now. The mafia families have the men of action- they get to make the big calls that determine who lives and who dies, mostly. We just play the role of detectives, for now. And choose a mayor / pardoner. On February 14 2010 14:36 Zato-1 wrote: The affront to logic here is so egregious, that coupled with all of your previous posts in which you go out of your way to defend Ace one might think you have an ulterior motive for doing so. I mean, I can understand if you don't think much of clue analysis, and you've been pretty unambiguous on that subject. But from your posts, I can't help but get the impression that you KNOW Ace isn't mafia, or at least that you are committed to defending him. Put another way, if Ace were to flip red, you would rank quite high on my next list of suspects. No, I am not accusing you of anything right now. Defending someone else and stopping a bandwagon before it begins has its merits if you feel the charges against that person lack substance. The fact that you have gone above and beyond this is... puzzling, at best. On February 14 2010 15:24 Zato-1 wrote: Ver hasn't exactly been a major contributor to this latest galactic confrontation between Ace and L, iirc. I'd say redtooth and myself have been far more active in that regard- not that either of us is running for office. As to the elections, I'm undecided between I10f and L currently, though I'd seriously consider Ver if he presented a candidacy (which I believe he hasn't?). Ace doesn't seem to be accountable to anyone, and I've never played with citi.zen before. Chez... sorry man, promising to post exclusively coherent content is nice and all, but you should preach with the example rather than make promises. BloodyC0bbler's posts have inspired zero confidence in me so far... in fact, you had to look with a bloody magnifying glass to find any content in the post in which he announces his candidacy. On February 14 2010 15:38 Zato-1 wrote: Well I'll be damned, someone actually made a compelling case for why the suspicion on Ace may be misplaced. Color me impressed. The fact that darkness and light references not only have to do with the twin horsemen that killed Qatol, but go on with the burning house, the shadowy figure that killed Incognito and the radiant being that killed Kennigit... it does raise the possibility that while trying to portray one mafia family with imagery of darkness and the other with light, Incognito unwittingly placed Ace in the crossfire. I am now prepared to admit that the evidence against Ace is insufficient. Well done, madnessman. On February 14 2010 16:12 Zato-1 wrote: I10f's proposed lynch target is not 'a previous red from another game'. If you think people shouldn't vote for him, you should start by trying to make your own campaign as attractive as possible, instead of threatening those who vote for others. On February 15 2010 07:12 Zato-1 wrote: I think you're missing one part of the equation, L. I have to thank Ver for this: Look at the other side of the coin: What should the mafia families do? Recently, there was a game in which DoctorHelvetica put on a pretty good performance as a Godfather pretending to be an active Town member. Now, ask yourselves this: would the mafia want to do such a thing in this game? No. In a standard game, mafia loses if the Town lynches them properly, so they have to try to get townies to lynch each other. In this game, Town lynches have got to be the last thing on a mafia family's mind. The real danger to them is in the other mafia family's KP, so it's really a no-brainer to try to get under the radar and have their counterparts waste as many hits on Town targets as possible. Mafia members get so little benefit from misdirecting the Town on that one lynch they have, and it's so much effort to even get the Town to follow your lead, that it's just not worth it. Let the Town play its own little game- maybe they'll lynch a Gambino, maybe they'll lynch a Sumiyoshi, maybe they'll lynch a Town member. Who cares? Participating actively won't particularly help mafia members unearth the identities of their real targets, and will definitely make themselves appear on the radar for the rival family. Best-case scenario, enemy family members are among the high-profile posters and you can take some out. Worst-case scenario, they're also lurking, in which case both mafia families will kill people randomly and a lot of Town members get killed. So yeah, this goes for the rest of the Town as well as for both mafia families lurking around: You want to find tasty mafia targets to kill? Take a good, long look at those who are inactive / making short, inane posts. On February 15 2010 07:26 Zato-1 wrote: An addendum to my previous post: There is one good reason for mafia members to be active, and that is if they want to be mayor / pardoner. Being in the spotlight isn't so bad if you're protected from the enemy KP. So while there may be some mafiosos among the more active parts of the community (particularly those running for office), it's still a good idea to focus for now on the less active players, where the majority of the mafia population should be. On February 15 2010 12:08 Zato-1 wrote: There's a problem with your plan, Caller. Imagine that I'm a mafia member from the Gambino family. I know that neither the mayor or the pardoner are from my ranks, and we have no infiltrated bodyguards. Since my family's goal is to kill all members of the Sumiyoshi family, this includes potentially killing the mayor / pardoner, because there's a good chance at least one of them is from the other family. Because they will be immune to hits due to bodyguards, getting the list of bodyguards will be quite valuable and possibly well worth the trade. On February 15 2010 15:31 Zato-1 wrote: Game theory. When you have dynamic decision-making, in which the outcome of my decisions depends upon the decisions you take, the correct way to approach the problem is to determine your optimal course of action first, and once I know what you're going to do and therefore the payoff of each of my own choices, only then do I start looking at what is the optimal course of action for myself. Sorry for the completely off-topic post, but I actually love game theory. Prisoner's dilemma and all that shiz- the very same reasoning that brought me to the conclusion, many pages ago, that mafia will mostly be lurking, so we should focus less on the really active players and more on those who are making shitty, short and content-free posts, and also on those who aren't posting at all. On February 16 2010 09:33 Zato-1 wrote: I'm currently reading page 48 of this thread. Keeping up to date is becoming nigh impossible due to the endless spam. I've officially asked L by PM to lynch Bill Murray if he becomes mayor because cluttering up the thread with spam as much as he does is making this game impossible to play. Also, it doesn't help that DoctorHelvetica feels the need to reply to every other post in the thread, adding nothing of value with many of his posts. I'm sorry to add yet another content-free post to the pile, but playing this game right now feels like a chore, and the fastest way I can see to get it back on track is to lynch the godfather of spam, Bill Murray. On February 16 2010 10:36 Zato-1 wrote: Ok, done skimming over the last 17 pages. Things I've noted: - Bill Murray and DoctorHelvetica keep posting away like there's no tomorrow. On the plus side, some of DoctorHelvetica's posts have been pretty helpful. I especially liked the one post + Show Spoiler [the post in question] + On February 15 2010 07:40 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I stopped at page 24, I'm a bit exhausted. Here is my post so far: Argument Compilation Anything listed in red is an objectively untrue statement or something I find completely ridiculous. I didn't list a lot of redundant arguments for the sake of time, but I got mostly everything. I've changed my mind a bit after going back and really scrutinizing every post. I suggest everyone do the same, you'd be surprised what bad conclusions you may have come to because you weren't really thinking. I blame my lack of focus yesterday due to packing up my room and playing video games while half-assedly browsing the mafia thread, but from now on I'm on full alert ;o I will post another update to this when I feel it's relevant. KEEP IN MIND THAT I DID NOT COMPILE ARGUMENTS FROM PAGE 24 OR BEYOND BloodyC0bbler + Show Spoiler + Argues that people should vote him for mayor because he is a strong player who can guide the town. I don't need to offer a strategy for the town to be mayor. l10f has done nothing to get people to vote for him, anyone who votes for him is suspicious. Don't use previous games to justify actions in this one. If L is mafia he wants Ace dead because Ace is another mafia or a strong townie. Ver + Show Spoiler + Discussing clues too much on the first day helps the mafia, Day 1 clues are very vague and shouldn't be taken seriously until later. Posting behavior isn't very easy to lynch people off of unless they make bad mistakes. We need to have a plan for the elected/blue roles and gather as much information as possible. Don't hide your thoughts. Post whatever, the more active people are the harder it is for mafia to hide. Instead of making immediate accusations based on clues, build clue profiles that grow stronger over time. Primary suspect is BloodyC0bbler due to a change in posting behavior. L + Show Spoiler + Looking at clues is very helpful, even on Day 1 because the clues are very good this time around. The clues very clearly point toward Ace as being mafia. Ace is discouraging clue analysis because he knows it will kill him. We can't afford to waste any lynches. Clues will help the mafia kill eachother for the benefit of the town. Ace needs to provide an alternative person to fit the day 1 clues. Ace is mafia because he refuses to analyze the clues and provide an alternative even though he is "innocent" The majority of anything people discuss lead to innocent deaths. Discussion still needs to happen and will tell us who is active and who isn't. Don't treat this game like a large 1 mafia game. Clues will be very important here. There isn't necessarily a clear clue division between the two families. The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch. It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game. Don't make useless posts. People should listen to my clue analysis because I am very good at it. Town can't waste time due to KP disparity. Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues. Mafia might have several good/veteran players. People look more innocent if herring clues apply to them. If Ace is red, Malongo probably is too. Don't be scared to kill a good player on day 1. I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion. I don't want Ace dead, I want the moonlight rider dead. Zato-1 + Show Spoiler + The Horsemen are on a different team from the torch thrower, the psychopath is on a different team from the angel. There may come a time when we may need to help one mafia family survive over another. The clue connection to Ace is strong, but perhaps not strong enough. Ace needs to argue against the clues, not the people analyzing them. Our job as town is to direct the mafia into killing eachother. It seems redtooth has an ulterior motive for defending Ace. laaan + Show Spoiler + Clues promote discussion which helps the town. There is a possibility that BloodyCobbler's profile fits the clues. Town should focus on keeping good players alive while the mafia kill eachother. Mafia will want the pardoner role. l10f + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't point fingers until later days. If I am elected, I will lynch someone who was previously mafia. Chezinu is mafia and I will lynch him if I'm mayor. DoctorHelvetica + Show Spoiler + Let's not make accusations based on clues until later. Worry about the mayor lynch. Agrees with Ver that clue profiling will be very helpful. Don't lynch Day 1 based on clues, they're useful later. BloodyCobbler should be lynched because the accusations on him are based on posting behavior and inconsistency. Use clues to help DT's and the town in the late-game. Malongo + Show Spoiler + We need a protected DT. Disagrees with Ver, even a wrong or fake analysis can help us. l10f should be mayor because he claimed blue l10f never roleclaimed a blue role Caller, L, and BC are mafia Caller. Half inactive up to now. Posted defending BC out of nowhere. L: Wanted to change his profile. Not really doing what he does in all games to benefit the town. BC: Already spotted by ver. meeple + Show Spoiler + Clues will be very important here. The accusation on BloodyCobbler is too weak to lynch him. Town should focus on surviving and hunting mafia Mystlord + Show Spoiler + We shouldn't lynch on clues before Day 3. Clues are mostly a vehicle for potentially incriminating discussion. Don't lynch Chezinu Day 1 arbitrarily. We need a mayor who is uninvolved in this drama. Using information from past games isn't helpful. Caller + Show Spoiler + BloodyCobbler will be such a helpful townie that he's a poor choice for a Day 1 lynch. Don't lynch strong players without good reason. d3_crescentia + Show Spoiler + Don't lynch strong players without good reason. Clues need to be strong in this game, we shouldn't ignore Day 1 clues because there are so many mafia. We need to keep in mind how the dynamic shifts due to there being 2 mafia. Abenson + Show Spoiler + Lynching someone based on posts hurts on the first day. Focus on the elections Ace + Show Spoiler + Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later. I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia) Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations. Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia. Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what. Clues are subjective, not objective. Never rely on clues. I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone. Clues are useful only when processed through DT's. I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly. I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death. Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother. L is trying to turn the town against me. Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town. L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red. Redtooth + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clue analysis is useless. Don't post distracting things. Ace is right. Clue analysis is the last thing we need right now. The winning mayor should lynch a veteran mayor candidate. BloodyCobbler is suspicious. Mafia will have one person running for mayor at least. The clues pointing toward Ace are a stretch. We will never have a good Day 1 analysis. Incognito wouldn't make obvious clues point to Ace, even if Ace was mafia. Ace plays aggressive whether he is mafia or town, attacking his argument style is useless. An alliance between mafia will be terrible for the town. I agree that we will probably never see 2 sets of clues on 1 mafia. If Ace was mafia, incognito wants him alive. Ace is innocent because the clues point to him. There have been no mafia accusations between L and Ace up until now. -Untrue. L directly said "I think you're red" to Ace before this post, Ace also implied Zato/L were mafia in his first post although he didn't directly accuse them L is upset about the last game in which he was mafia which is why he wants Ace dead. Ace isn't necessarily innocent, the clues just don't point to him. Clue analysis on day 1 is trash. Dozko + Show Spoiler + Disagrees with Ace: Behavioral analysis is much more subjective than clues. All we have are Day 1 clues, we shouldn't ignore them. Chezinu + Show Spoiler + Day 1 clues are good to start discussion. Use clues to accuse people even if you don't really suspect them, then analyze their reaction. I should be mayor because I am untrustworthy. There is no such thing as a wasted post. Don't kill me. What people say in public isn't necessarily what they actually think. Hobbes + Show Spoiler + By lynching active posters with clues pointing toward them, we gain a lot of helpful information. It isn't a bad idea to lynch Ace. Just because a player is good doesn't mean they are sacrosanct. The bolded spoilers are very important as they will shine a lot of light on the argument between Ace/L/Redtooth. After reading through the thread more closely, I believe clue analysis is a lot more important than I first though. The clues are much stronger and L's point about clue profiling being mostly useless because of the large number of mafia is a very good one. L has been consistent and well-spoken in his arguments. Ace/Redtooth have been a bit inconsistent and too personal. Saying things like "L is obviously upset about this previous game" doesn't help anything and is just worthless speculation that distracts from the real argument. Ace's refusal to provide an alternative fit cannot be ignored. L did imply that Ace was butthurt about a previous game and I do hold that against him, unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so (such as trying to provoke a specific reaction) Read through this and make what you will of it! Keep in mind newer arguments (Page 24 onward) aren't posted here. - Much like Bill Murray, Ace has made no contributions whatsoever. L made a note of this at some point- Ace has just been pointing out why anyone who suspects him must be a half-wit, and has otherwise been making pointless witty remarks. This makes me think he is, in fact, mafia. Not based upon clue analysis like at the start of the game, but based on behavioral analysis. If he's running for mayor and posting a lot, why would he just post a steaming pile of shit all game long? - I've warned twice of the people who are lurking. I'll do it again. Yes, there are probably a few mafia among high-profile posters. There are two people among them who I believe are NOT mafia at this point- L and redtooth. L because he's been the single most powerful voice of reason so far and has provided the Town with leadership that might actually get us somewhere. redtooth, because of the post he made when he announced he would vote for L. At any rate, the important part right now is: It's night time. I said at one point that mafia are the men of action, the Town can only hope to direct their guns at one another instead of having them shoot randomly. Well, it's that time folks. If you want to do the Town a real service, post the names of those you think are mafia, and why you think that. It's in our best interest to help the mafia families to get to know one another right now. On February 16 2010 10:48 Zato-1 wrote: I've been reading your posts, every single one. How about instead of posting to dismiss yet another person's arguments, you come up with something helpful for the town instead? On February 16 2010 11:07 Zato-1 wrote: I've helped establish a proper strategy for the Town to follow. I've called out those who are most detrimental to the Town- those who make people stop wanting to read the thread and contribute, and therefore make it easier for mafia to lurk undetected. I've explained why Qatol's plan for the mayor to reveal the bodyguard list to whoever claims to be a DT and asks for it is a bad idea. I'm actively trying to get the Town to suffer fewer deaths on night 1. It's not an impressive list, I'll admit. But come now, you don't really care about what I'm doing. You just want to change the topic. Again. Weasel out of having to lift a goddamn finger for the town. Again. I can't know for sure if you really are mafia, Ace. But I sure damn suspect you are, by now. Prove me wrong, please. Start playing like someone who gives a damn for the Town. On February 16 2010 21:26 Zato-1 wrote: This whole proposition from Malongo is flawed. Let me pick it apart piece by piece: Look at from Mafia B's perspective. They hit Malongo. Malongo dies. Either redtooth did not protect him and is therefore from Mafia A, or redtooth did protect him but Mafia A also hit Malongo. Either way, Mafia B wasted a hit and still doesn't know a thing about redtooth. Whoopy doo, Mafia B wastes a hit to determine that 1 out of 40 targets is NOT someone they want to kill after all. Not worth it. This case would make sense, except for the fact that since Malongo is Mafia A and so is redtooth, Malongo would know the plan would backfire horribly upon his own family and would therefore never have proposed it in the first place. This scenario is almost an impossibility. A medic cover will protect a target from 1 night hit, so if both mafia families were to hit him, Malongo would die, yes. In this case, both mafia families are left to wonder whether the other family also hit Malongo, or redtooth was mafia and didn't protect Malongo- the only thing the end result tells them is that the number of hits on Malongo exceeded the number of medic covers by at least 1. If only one family hits Malongo, all they achieve is determining that redtooth is indeed a medic, and therefore someone they don't particularly care to kill. So depending on circumstances which Mafia B family does not control, they will either learn: a) Nothing, or b) That 1/40 targets is not someone they care about (redtooth). As to the question, what do we have to lose? A medic cover, that's what. I've established that it is not in the mafia's interest to hit whoever redtooth claims he will cover, therefore they won't, and redtooth will waste his medic cover (if he indeed has one). Sure, it's a small cost to pay, but when there's literally zero upside, it's still a bad plan. Also, in before SugiuraMidori accuses me of being mafia for the scummy logic in this post :p On February 16 2010 22:43 Zato-1 wrote: Great logic here. Both townies AND members of whichever mafia family you're not on would only really want you killed if you're mafia. Why would mafia go out of their way to get you killed if you're from the Town? The flipside of this argument, of course, is that if you DO turn out to be mafia, that proves nothing about the allegiances of those who accused you- they're either townies trying to kill mafia, or mafia from the opposite family. The only way you're going to convince anyone of your innocence at this point is by: a. Clearly identifying the arguments made against you, then b. Proceeding to show why they're not compelling enough to label you as mafia. On February 16 2010 23:43 Zato-1 wrote: Pretty telling post, MasterDana. First time I see you posting something with substance since your candidacy. Also, pleading ignorance means you're either a very lazy townie, or mafia. Pleading ignorance is a very common mafia defense. Here, you're trying to cast suspicion on both Ver and redtooth, with extremely weak argumentation. Mislead us into lynching a townie? Why would Ver want to do that, if he was mafia? Clearly, a mafia member would've preferred to lynch a mafia from the opposite team. Same goes for redtooth. So why make these weak accusations behind them? Because you're feeling the heat, and want to shift it to someone else. Again, this is scummy behavior; if you make a weak accusation, you're not only diverting attention from yourself and giving the appearance of someone who's contributing, you're also not committing to anything because the accusation is weak. Pardon the swear, but this couldn't be more half-assed. Trying to make yourself sound like the victim whose trust has been violated, who is ignorant of how he should vote and who expresses weak feelings of distrust like an injured deer... I don't buy it. What do you have to say for yourself, MasterDana? On February 17 2010 00:07 Zato-1 wrote: The only person that may be certain Chezinu is a DT is himself. The rest of us acknowledge the possibility that he's a DT. I for one will be waiting to hear from him tonight to see how he can back his claim up, after he has a chance to use his night ability. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As the game as begun, it is time to get it started. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor. I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly. Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler On February 14 2010 10:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote: pardoner ability is really useful to stop bandwagons of no substance truth be told. Or if mayor decides to kill someone who is suspected to be innocent/not who they say they will/total left field sort of thing. On February 14 2010 11:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Based on Ver posting insanely helpful tips to people, I shall vote for him to be mayor. If he wants me dead, that's his choice. However wrong he may be. On February 14 2010 11:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Most likely not, but hes posting in the best manner for one who should be in office, so for the moment he has my vote? On February 14 2010 11:45 BloodyC0bbler wrote: seeing as you could be one of the horsemen, I think your right. On February 14 2010 11:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Having a voice of reason in the elected position is the only reason I ran. Truth be told, from your post, and ver's I think the two of you should prob take it, and how do we say, not repeat qatols first game? On February 14 2010 11:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote: A mayor should lynch someone who is inactive, or someone who is so obviously mafia that even their own family would sell them out. Aside from that, people start talking, more voting alllright. On February 14 2010 12:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote: They are interesting to look at mystlord, but however, day 1 clues almost always end up being red herrings, and random accusations, even backed by clues aren't too good for the person doing them unless they end up being right. I learned that the hardway. On February 14 2010 13:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote: L I wont spend time on day 1 clue analysis till like day 3, there is no point till then, i dont get why you love it so much On February 14 2010 13:58 BloodyC0bbler wrote: my bad, that should be to redtooth not L, fast reading ftl On February 14 2010 14:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote: your quote of " i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis." I'm not going to focus on it now. Nor am i trying to fade into the shadows, observering is something that is needed right now On February 14 2010 15:30 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Confidence is from ones following actions, not from random bickering. I10f has posted next to nothing for his candidacy yet is getting supporters? This is what makes one sketchy. He has votes, he has no platform past "i will lynch a previous red from another game" and bam he inspires confidence while hiding in the woodworks. All those who have so far fallen into support of him, or have voted for him are insanely suspect. Yes, my platform is next to nil, but what do you want me to do? Create a nice pretty strategy to get myself into office? Last time I did that, I got killed from the very town I was trying to lead. You can go back and read any of the games I have run, and yes i have presented a plan. But with the current setup of the game, my ideas aren't fool proof, or close to it. When I have that, I shall post it, or when I see obvious clues, I will post them as well. So yes, if you look at confidence, i currently see people bandwagon supporting and others trying to kill off veteran players on red herrings. If thats confidence, I am afraid for this town. On February 14 2010 15:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote: ALSO NOTE: Anyone bringing up previous games to justify ones actions in the current game should not be validated on that. If you are playing for town and analyze clues one way, being red does not mean you will analyze them the same way. In the case of L vs Ace. Yes as town, L nailed truthbringer. If L is mafia this game, he would be trying to remove ace because is he is A) a mafia member of another group B) townie that could threaten his position Yes, L could be a townie but he is still pushing to hard on day 1 to kill off one player based off clues. On February 14 2010 16:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Simple, as of now there is a really narrow gap on how to vote us in. Each of us is most likely trying to figure out some method in which to push up to the top and win, as any candiate would. However, clues at this point IMO are not enough to warrant being voted in. A plan would be. I would go with this. Ace/L/Myself/whoever else is running, are all trying to figure out some little plan to put ourself above the rest. As of now, everything that I have come up with, although fun on paper, is insanely hard to actually accomplish, and very very easy to stop. Soon as I figure something out, Ill post it. On February 14 2010 16:08 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As a note to quickstriker, out of say 6 people running, assume 1 from each family will be in the elections. Normally a family would put forth 1 possibly 2 members (this case not as safe as the other family is watching) so most likely 1 from each family, maybe one family put ahead 2. On February 14 2010 16:10 BloodyC0bbler wrote: and on that last note, im hitting the sac. On February 15 2010 00:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As much as you've backpeddled as you have already, this post is still damning. You blindly list people as mafia, list off groups of people who support eachother (without actually lumping them in said groups), and claim I'm the other mafia gf. Yes youve backpeddled and said you believe L is the other one, however, that post indicates you know the identity of one GF already. It also speaks to your lack of knowledge of my playstyle. If I was the gf, the mayoral role would never be something I would personally want, as getting a blue role that is uncheckable is moot when I can already do that. That post either indicates you giving yourself as a mafia away, or that you really need to learn on how to structure your mafia game posts to now get yourself firmly on radars. On February 15 2010 00:49 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I should also add, if you believe that the mafia would elect me godfather, when i'm trying to get an elected position + a vet player who would most likely be killed if I didnt get the mayoral or pardoner position quickly, your not thinking. Let alone that the mafia team would elect me less than 24 hours into the game. On February 15 2010 01:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote: annd just realized its time for work, be back in like 6ish hours, possibly 7 On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote: It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour On February 15 2010 09:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Although out of character from his last game, its something to be noted, but not 100% on. However, those who are spending more time lurking than posting. I recommend starting to post, as inactivity, or just voting will get you noticed for all the wrong reasons. On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. On February 15 2010 09:34 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Caller the issue with your plan is getting ahold of a real dt. Ideally yes, the town circle is formed by the bgs who are the only 100% for sure role when checked. You first need the mayor to get in contact with a dt, you also need to hope to god that not all bgs are red, hope the dt doesnt die, etc... Once the dt has done his job, the circle is formed and the fun begins. Getting it started is the hard part. On February 15 2010 09:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote: That screams out behaviourally that he is red  . He stand a very high chance of being mafia, and your point there is more reason to lynch him to me than the clues. My reasoning for wanting to avoid day 1 clues for now is basically this. Say we red herring someone, they die and flip townie, the persons defense will be "whoops my bad day 1 clues" If he does get a red (note this could be a lucky guess or an actual link, we wont know for certain unless those "links" disappear from future posts) the town will have a sense of trust in the person that isn't neccesarily earned. Its luck. Lynching someone off a list of inactives, or inactives that fit the themes of mafia's we have established does two things. It removes someone from a list who was considered red, It removes someone who isn't contributing and helps prevent mafia from hiding among inactives. I am all for lynching someone day 1 based off behaviour, and would say that you can make strong cases based off clue accusations on why you should lynch someone (reactions tell alot). Just lynching off of day 1 clues for the seemingly strongest connection seems strained. On February 15 2010 09:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: He refers to Ace. Ace's defense of the accusations is more scummy than the accusation itself. However, as L and Ace always argue back and forth, perhaps hes just sick of defending himself from L? On February 15 2010 10:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote: You may have named three people, but you have centered most of your arguments around Ace, and even stated that you prefered him over mystlord (and myst was your second pick). I may have missed a post somewhere of you re ranking, however I do agree Emp is a good find. I would actually label him as the person who kills kennigit if I had to. On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part. Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything. Clue Analysis: Day 1 Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice. Mafia A – The horsemen “Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.” “he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.” “Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.” “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen” “He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.” Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant. “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.” “The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.” “However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.” Analysis Mafia A I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used. The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective. I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651 It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote. I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked. The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly. This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture. Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad. The third one I have linked is Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter. Mafia B Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it. Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games. The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link. On February 15 2010 10:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I also advise everyone to look at the people voting for citi.zen closely. He has not been that active, and posted very little on reason on why he should be in office, and he is easily winning position for mayor at the moment. This is insanely suspect behaviour on the voters. Much like the blind support I10f got last night, this blind support is similarly interesting. On February 15 2010 11:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Thing is, although DrH died, he did very well for the first while as well. It seems reasonable that he would get similar support from players but isn't. Blind support can critically destroy a town. People have to see how people are playing now, and compare to previous games to see habits people do as town/mafia. Not to base a vote for. On February 15 2010 12:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: My issue with mystlord being used as the rooftop killer is that you hear the sounds of gunfire. As the woman from his profile picture has some form of blade, it seems to destroy that point. I could be horribly wrong, but its my own take on it. However mystlord does link in multiple locations. On February 15 2010 15:46 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As a note from all this nonsense. I am heading to bed, and waking up to jump on a plane. I will be back hopefully just before voting closes, but may not. As such I am going to change my vote to abstain for now as I don't really want anyone currently running to win. On February 17 2010 02:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: For anyone in the general know how, and medics feel free to not prot me. However, Ver has tried to guess my role, as well as actively pm people this game. Both are actions Ver rarely takes. Read earlier in the thread and you will find that he "RC'd" to BM. I will spend some time once ive showered going over his posts and analyzing him, but he is not as safe an option to prot any more than I am. On February 17 2010 03:25 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Maybe you haven't played enough. But Ver does not like playing mafia in Pm's typically, nor do I. Just showerd, so I will go compare his posting to previous games, but he is playing very as per his normal play. On February 17 2010 04:13 BloodyC0bbler wrote: First night post is day 10 first day post is page 63 On February 17 2010 04:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote: err day 10 = page 10 | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
Fulgrim + Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 12:34 Fulgrim wrote: Give us "inactives" a chance to speak lol, its only been a few hours. (was at an awesome new years party) So as people have pointed out before, clues are important. They will help us catch mafia, HOWEVER they should not be the sole deciding factor on a lynch in the early game, and the lynch should definitely not be random. We need a reason to get someone, not just because they were picked out of a list. After reading over the 7 pages you guys made in like 2 hours, I think that I'm going to vote for Ver, because it seems that he would lead the town in the right direction, having the best posts so far. On February 14 2010 12:40 Fulgrim wrote: Ace you really need to give people more incentive if you expect them to vote for you. You should try and post something with more substance, then just "I'M ACE VOTE FOR ME". Some healthy mafia accusations never hurt anyone, I agree that clues aren't the most helpful early game as you can easily screw up, but its not any worse then just lynching a random player. On February 14 2010 12:57 Fulgrim wrote: So whats different about this game then our previous games is that the mafia want to USE our DT's and medics, and not kill them. Just throwing this idea out there for discussion: What would happen if one of our DT's revealed themselves? What would the mafia do? Waste a hit on them when they will probably be receiving medic protection? I doubt it. Any thoughts about this? On February 14 2010 13:26 Fulgrim wrote: Good because that would have been me... Sorry l10f =( On February 14 2010 14:20 Fulgrim wrote: I don't think Ver actually said he was running yet, but if he does he has my vote currently. On February 15 2010 09:18 Fulgrim wrote: thanks Bill, I don't think i've posted more then 4 times yet. I am going to switch my vote from Ver to Dr.h because I haven't seen anything that Ver said, that would mean that he is running, and Dr.h appears to be similar in approach to this game, along with some good posts thus far. All the other candidates I have a hard time trusting. On February 15 2010 09:45 Fulgrim wrote: I was actually going to post a similar idea but caller beat me too it. I think that our DT's shouldn't be in alot of danger this game because mafia want to use the DT's not kill them. (unless they are trying to eliminate the town). I think our focus now should be towards getting one or two confirmed DT's so they can start a circle of trust with townies they role-check. This would allow the town a greater sense of security, because the mafia wouldn't waste their time on medic protected DT's and confirmed townies. On February 15 2010 09:51 Fulgrim wrote: Blatantly copied from flamewheel in the voting thread: Vote Tally for Mayor/Pardoner D3_crescentia + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 07:50 d3_crescentia wrote: time to make a new set of dossiers... [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 10:55 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 10:50 Mystlord wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 10:43 meeple wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 10:37 MasterDana wrote: Also, did Wine Barrels or Football fields stand-out to anyone? It could've easily said "Barrel" or "100-yards", but it got descriptive. Just something I noticed.[/QUOTE] I thought about it... but generally its better to profile the killers right now. Last game we made a huge deal about some heavily caffeinated tea at the beginning that ended up being nothing. Often it seems that the host is overly descriptive just to make our lives harder.[/QUOTE] Ah ha ha I remember that. I think clues would mostly be concentrated in areas that actually describe somehow the killers right? I didn't take notice if that was the case at the end of the last mafia game, but I believe that was how it turned out.[/QUOTE] Generally I think is the case, but each host's clue style is a little different as well, especially for the more vague Day 1 clues.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 11:10 d3_crescentia wrote: @Ver, what about Game 15 where BC just posted random rhyming gibberish?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 11:34 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 11:20 Caller wrote: Ver, I'm not entirely sure lynching BC is a very good idea. While I agree with you on the election post, consider the thing about BC is that he's very good at identifying people's roles and the like. We ideally should keep him alive as long as possible. Even if he is scum, you'd consider that he would likely focus on the other mafia, and this gives us two things: a) dead mafia on the other family b) a free kill for a vig or lynch on his family. More importantly, we can trace some of his support if he is indeed scum, which may give us more information. It all depends on what he can do for us. Of course, if he's town affiliated, he can only benefit us. I submit that we lynch random people for the first lynch like we usually do. You never know, we may get lucky. Lynching strong players right now could really hurt the town, especially without any information. Of course, it may also cripple mafia as well, but I'm not sure we should take such a risk right now.[/QUOTE] I agree with this - out of all the possible mafia candidates to lynch, we should reserve the best ones for later. The town HAS to play both families against the other without playing too much into either one's plans. Even if BC was mafia, then the other mafia would KNOW to keep their sights on him for his supposed prowess at identifying people... but if the TOWN killed him right away, then it'd just be doing their dirty work for them.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 12:08 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 12:01 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started. First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on. Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid. Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this. I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon. [/QUOTE] Summarized version: I'm angry that in game where 2 out of 5 people are mafia, that someone called me out on blatant clue connections. I could understand if we had a 20 man game with like, 4 mafia, that a host would understandably shy away from good day 1 clues, but that's really not the case here. Compare this game's Day 1 post with clues to pretty much any of the others; This one is far larger, has more thematic elements and establishes 3-4 clear personae. Actually, I kinda want to repeat that; Lets look at this current game format. The town consists of 31 members. The mafia families combined amount to 20 members. Mafia, given that they attack a group that is 41 members large, and not 51 members large, have a 1/4 chance of hitting a mafia from another house, and a 3/4 chance of hitting a townie. With a total of 7 kp per day, 1 from the town, 3 from each family, we have 1*60%+6*75% effective average townie deaths per day before clues and blue roles. That's 5 deaths a day, giving us a clock of around 6-8 days to kill... 20 mafia? Well, that's not entirely true; we should have 2 mafia killed by that point by fire between the groups, so 18. Say we have 8 days until some form of LyLo situtation, giving us 8 lynches; Even if we succeed every lynch, we're going to have ten mafia still alive. That's impossible. Many of you know its impossible. So what handicaps is town likely to get? Well for one, they have stronger DTs, they probably have substantial kp in vigs and hatters, but they won't amount to the 12 kp hole we have. More to the point; Clues aren't here just for the town; They're for opposing mafia teams as well. If we aren't analysing and picking a few good targets a day, one of the teams will be; ideally we want to be correct about a few of the early ones and have members of the mafia agree so that they shred each other and lower their kp asap. So why exactly are you thinking that day 1 clues wouldn't be a part of the game? [/QUOTE] thanks for stealing my thoughts L =( clues are worth more in this game than in previous games, and so we should pay a little more attention to Day 1 clues than in standard games (of course, the problem is deciphering the clues)[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 12:10 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 12:06 Ace wrote: Ok L, try using that the "40% of people are Mafia argument". It doesn't help. Blindly pointing fingers in the chance you may nab someone is just as bad if it were a game where 20% of the people are Mafia. Stop it. You're wrong. [/QUOTE] no, but it forces you to defend yourself and add more to the discussion so we can further analyze your posting let the accusations begin[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 12:20 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 12:19 meeple wrote: so x = mafia 1 y = mafia 2 z = town z is trying to kill x + y X is trying to kill y + z y is trying to kill x + z Isn't it something more like this?[/QUOTE] no, because the victory conditions for X/Y only rely on the other one being completely dead so Z kill X + Y X kill Y Y kill X as mentioned above[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 13:05 d3_crescentia wrote: L, it's 16 mafia, not 18. I agree with your post; I think it's important to think about what kinds of posting/voting dynamics change as a result from a simple two-faction game to a three faction game. The fact alone that having a mafia mayor won't be as terrible as the same situation in a two-faction game should be enough for people to step back and reconsider things. I'd post with more substance and clarity, but I'm wrecked from prepping for this Chinese New Years' party today.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 00:36 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 14 2010 22:55 Ace wrote: "let them kill each other off now" - and how do we do that? It's not like we KNOW who they are. I disagree with so much of you're post. You're first paragraph is blatantly wrong because clues aren't always right. The very fact that you don't even know what automatically constitutes a clue makes you wrong on that too. [/QUOTE] We do clue analysis regardless of whether or not it's right, and people step up to defend/criticize... then we analyze their posts in response. The fact that there's such a huge argument between you and L is already very telling. I suppose it would derail the thread if we picked someone wrong, so my suggestion is thus: can we find any further clues that relate to the electoral candidates?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 01:06 d3_crescentia wrote: I'm starting to agree with BC here... Bill is either bad at posting, or mafia. Or both, because the situation we have right now would happen anyway if he was the latter and did the former. It's simply DUMB for the mafia to put GF as mayor, because it wastes the GF's inherent power.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 01:12 d3_crescentia wrote: Also, why is BM pointing out who could/couldn't be GF right now, when it's a fact that GF is decided before the END of Day 1?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 01:17 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 01:13 BloodyC0bbler wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 01:12 d3_crescentia wrote: Also, why is BM pointing out who could/couldn't be GF right now, when it's a fact that GF is decided before the END of Day 1?[/QUOTE] Someone has seen the light[/QUOTE] problem: would the mafia be THIS uncoordinated to let BM say shit like this?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 12:22 d3_crescentia wrote: So how do we go about getting bodyguards checked?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 12:25 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 12:23 SugiuraMidori wrote: Has tree.hugger ever made a post, or has it just been his vote for Ace just now?[/QUOTE] Don't think so. It'd be with his normal posting pattern, though - he wasn't overactive in the last game.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 12:32 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 12:24 SugiuraMidori wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 12:22 d3_crescentia wrote: So how do we go about getting bodyguards checked?[/QUOTE] Read more... bodyguards check normally, nothing special about them as far as checks.[/QUOTE] I'm sorry, maybe I should rephrase - why was the bodyguard check suggested in the first place and/or what kind of benefit do we get from doing it? That's what I'm confused about.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:04 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote: I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game. And activity of course. I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego. [/QUOTE] On the contrary, people with massive egos have higher opinions of themselves and are more likely to be driven to WIN out of said egos.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:46 d3_crescentia wrote: Only 16 posts for me? Pah. Pathetic. Question: do town-aligned bodyguards still protect mafia-aligned officials in this game?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:50 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:47 Chezinu wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:46 Qatol wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: he corrected it so it doesn't count posts before the game started (before the first day post)[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:45 CynanMachae wrote: He took out the posts that were made before the game started[/QUOTE] You mean she![/QUOTE] Oooooo[/QUOTE] I thought we all knew this already -_-[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:55 d3_crescentia wrote: I'm abstaining because I'd like to vote for L but haven't had a chance to examine him or the other candidates too closely.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 14:07 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 13:57 SugiuraMidori wrote: I told you why I'm abstaining... they're all hooligans!! And it gets OLD to see vet players always take mayor pardoner.. what's the freaking point, let some new players learn how to play the game. Also.. edited the last post to show it in count order, and placed old post in spoiler so it's preserved. Removed the mods from the counts as well...[/QUOTE] We newer players had games before these to learn a bit... some of us did very well; others, not so much =[ Though, I will agree that they're all hooligans.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 14:16 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 14:12 QuickStriker wrote: Hi everyone, I am back.... wow, the last time I remember I posted, I think it was page 24.... how the hell did this game went to page 44 in one day?? My last mafia game stopped and finished at page 44. This is really sad and interesting at the same time.... I seriously honestly don't want to read thru all these 20+ pages I missed.... can someone PLEASE PLEASEEEEEEE make a post of summarization and brief key points from the start of the game to now??? Please????? I really don't want to sit back, and spend an actual 3 hours reading all this when like today, I had places to go and people to do. Thank you. x_x[/QUOTE] search through the thread and look at DrH's summary post (except take it with a grain of salt, since he might be some filthy red scum again)[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 14:21 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 14:18 QuickStriker wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 14:16 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 15 2010 14:12 QuickStriker wrote: Hi everyone, I am back.... wow, the last time I remember I posted, I think it was page 24.... how the hell did this game went to page 44 in one day?? My last mafia game stopped and finished at page 44. This is really sad and interesting at the same time.... I seriously honestly don't want to read thru all these 20+ pages I missed.... can someone PLEASE PLEASEEEEEEE make a post of summarization and brief key points from the start of the game to now??? Please????? I really don't want to sit back, and spend an actual 3 hours reading all this when like today, I had places to go and people to do. Thank you. x_x[/QUOTE] search through the thread and look at DrH's summary post (except take it with a grain of salt, since he might be some filthy red scum again)[/QUOTE] Or have his own personal bias-feedback?? Do you know what page # is that?? I mean you're talking me searching thru 45 pages to find one post.... 15 posts per page times 40 pages.... 600 posts...[/QUOTE] you could just hit 'All' and Ctrl+F for 'DoctorHelvetica'[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 03:27 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 01:47 789 wrote: Redtooth, I'm curious as to why you push L for voting so hard. How can you be sure he is non mafia?[/QUOTE] It doesn't matter as much (or at least, not in the same way) as if this were a town v mafia game. Whoever we end up electing will have the same goals - kill more mafia - so the real issue is simply KNOWING whether the mayor is mafia or not and figuring out when the most optimal time to kill him is.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 03:46 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 03:34 citi.zen wrote: It may even be nice to have a mafia elected official, they will have to be very active and generate a long trail f posts to analyze later. In the end I think the game gets interesting once DTs build a circle of trust with grens/blues and we can really get some traction. Provided the DTs don't check mafia 2x nights in a row, or stumble across the GF - which could make life very hard.[/QUOTE] More preferable to have a mafia mayor than a pardoner, because the pardoner has that much more power in the late game to cement a mafia lead. We should watch out for this. I've been trying to wrap my mind around the bodyguard/substitution process for the last day or so, and I think DT checks on bodyguards would help to determine the nature of our officials. I'm still working out the details, though.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 06:57 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 06:28 L wrote: Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot. My only fear is that ZERO people have pushed back against my claim against emp, and a number of people have tagged along well after i took pains to make it clear i wasn't dropping the accusation. Either one of the mafia teams is using him as a sacrifice to get, say, ver, to look good by supporting my position, or emp is green/blue and afk like a moron. Given his vote, it would seem that he isn't afk, which leads me to believe that killing him will at least give me some information. I'm actually more worried about how much information regarding clue interpretation for this game I can glean from a red or green flip than anything else. Like i said; Grow some fucking balls. [/QUOTE] L, I'll nibble... only a bit. The clues we have regarding Emp are that his name has links to light, fire and heaven, but it seems to me that "thinking that an angel had saved the town" is more a manner of speech; a being masked by light is not necessarily the same as an angelic being. Consider BloodyCobbler's profile - plenty of blue-ish light in there, and it seems that he was eager to set you up as super-eager to lynch Ace. I'm curious as to why no one's focusing on the hyena-laughter/psychopathic noises. Madnessman feels pretty red-herring to me, but who else could it be?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 06:59 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 06:52 SugiuraMidori wrote: So why are people voting for Chez all of a sudden? He just acts like a 12yr old kid that has yet to have his balls drop, as L so brilliantly pointed out. He also had 0 votes till now..[/QUOTE] I think it's that we know Chez won't win; L doesn't want to support anyone and picks a joke vote, and Bill is an idiot...[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:18 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:05 L wrote: Its not a wasted vote. I'd rather have someone who i'm pretty sure is a DT in office regardless of his posting mannerisms if the alternatives are just as stupid with far less potential for being blue. [/QUOTE] But with a little less than two hours left, do you think your vote can actually make a difference?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:28 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:20 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:18 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 07:05 L wrote: Its not a wasted vote. I'd rather have someone who i'm pretty sure is a DT in office regardless of his posting mannerisms if the alternatives are just as stupid with far less potential for being blue. [/QUOTE] But with a little less than two hours left, do you think your vote can actually make a difference?[/QUOTE] Instead of asking me incredibly stupid questions, why don't you think on your own for 3 seconds? Yeah, no shit I think it makes a difference, otherwise I wouldn't have voted. [/QUOTE] Well, that certainly puts everything into a whole new perspective for me. I appreciate your honestly.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:41 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:39 Bill Murray wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 Ace wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:21 L wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote: god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.[/QUOTE] I'm not worried about him. I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] and I'm worried about YOU.[/QUOTE] "Mutual Chainsaw Defense, where two players defend each other by attacking each others' attackers. This is a major scumtell,"[/QUOTE] so you read a wiki and suddenly decide you're the king of analysis?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:43 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:33 Bill Murray wrote: I honestly have been suspicious of d3_crescentia, regardless of people telling me that my analysis of the moon in his signature is a red herring... 5 mentions of the moon or moonlight are too many for me to ignore... I say this for 2 reasons: First, assume he is mafia. He would then defend ace/redtooth who are obviously already mutually defending each other until it was pointed out when redtooth decided that his best course of action would be to roleclaim as opposed to defending ace. second, assume he is an idiot townie: he would be mad at me for my spamming the thread, and for lumping him in with bloodycobbler, ace, mystlord, etc. with my analysis final analysis: I do not think redtooth is mafia, but I DEFINITELY HAVE BEEN WRONG IN THE PAST LOL U KNOW FROM EXPERIENCE. I feel that d3_crescentia fell into a trap by this, and I'm pretty sure someone else agrees with me too. I feel like d3_crescentia is trying to defend ace, and they they are both mafia from the same family. [/QUOTE] HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA no.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 10:01 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:45 Bill Murray wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:43 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:33 Bill Murray wrote: I honestly have been suspicious of d3_crescentia, regardless of people telling me that my analysis of the moon in his signature is a red herring... 5 mentions of the moon or moonlight are too many for me to ignore... I say this for 2 reasons: First, assume he is mafia. He would then defend ace/redtooth who are obviously already mutually defending each other until it was pointed out when redtooth decided that his best course of action would be to roleclaim as opposed to defending ace. second, assume he is an idiot townie: he would be mad at me for my spamming the thread, and for lumping him in with bloodycobbler, ace, mystlord, etc. with my analysis final analysis: I do not think redtooth is mafia, but I DEFINITELY HAVE BEEN WRONG IN THE PAST LOL U KNOW FROM EXPERIENCE. I feel that d3_crescentia fell into a trap by this, and I'm pretty sure someone else agrees with me too. I feel like d3_crescentia is trying to defend ace, and they they are both mafia from the same family. [/QUOTE] HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA no.[/QUOTE] no on what? it's one or the other, and you aren't as strong of a player as ace so you cant just be like "im ace i have bodyarmor u cant kill me" like ace does because he knows that nothing will stick to him. i really do think you are mafia, though. [/QUOTE] because I've done none of the above. have I defended ace or redtooth at all this game? perhaps it would serve you to count the number of posts I've made that haven't been attempting to be exceedingly neutral and attempt to contribute something other than pointless name-calling. well, screw that. and, scratch that - I have been pissed off at you, and it is because you spam the thread with analysis - but only because it's bad.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:11 d3_crescentia wrote: Fulgrim, quality posts take time and effort to construct. I'm not as fast of a typist or as streamlined of a thinker as some of these other people are, so I haven't been able to type out something that's significant and relevant when we're going as fast as 20 pages a day. On top of that, most of our vets are doing the same thing they've been doing for the past several games (i.e. accusing each other), so I find myself unable to participate in such discussions. As for clue analysis, I'm of the opinion that the Day 1 clues weren't any stronger or weaker than previous games... and so having learned my lesson from last game I wasn't going to buy into it as strongly as I did this game. Zato, in reference to this post: [quote]Imagine that I'm a mafia member from the Gambino family. I know that neither the mayor or the pardoner are from my ranks, and we have no infiltrated bodyguards. Since my family's goal is to kill all members of the Sumiyoshi family, this includes potentially killing the mayor / pardoner, because there's a good chance at least one of them is from the other family. Because they will be immune to hits due to bodyguards, getting the list of bodyguards will be quite valuable and possibly well worth the trade.[/quote] I think there's a problem with this line of thinking. The mafia (S) are going to have to spend 4 KP to get themselves rid of the bodyguards before they can get rid of the officials... but that's going to take two nights of potentially wasted KP while the other family is free to strike; or one night if the other mafia decides to substitute their two guys. I *doubt* that the (G) who are in control of the office will want to substitute any guys, because it only makes them more vulnerable if such a list is leaked. If the (S) decides to substitute and while the Mayor is (G), then it will obviously make the Mayor/Pardoner more vulnerable to attack after the two town BGs have been killed or lynched, though this would be suspicious for the (S)-aligned BGs as well after two of their comrades have died. If such a substitution is made, then likely we won't be seeing any BGs die until later in the game... but then, it's still possible to find a mafia. I think the BG list should be made public. The DTs can check them, and the mafia can choose to waste their KP on them, if they so choose. Killing 2-4 people just to get to 1 seems awfully inefficient.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:32 d3_crescentia wrote: What do you think about publicly releasing the BG list?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:36 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:32 Malongo wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote: My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there. Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway. [/QUOTE] I disagree here Ace. From mafia pov its direct that knowing all the bgs-> confirmed townies or at least few chances of mafia from the other family + 3 votes is huge. Think about this: this game is more likely to go until 20 players remain unless one family is absolutely demolishing the other. In this case having a mafia having 3 votes and clearing up the targets with the bgs list is lot better than 2 pardons overall. Having a mafia mayor is a huge advantage against the other mafia, having a pardoner *may* save one of your foes but its not like the other mafia cant target him anyways next night. As you see pardoner <<<< mayor for a mafia player. So the point is, what is redtooth going to do about his claim¿ The best way to set this up is : Redtooth self claimed medic declares his target for protection before the night. This way the other family /assuming redtooth is mafia/ has the chance to hit that target and unreveal redtooth. It is win for that family because then they force the town to lynch him if he turns nonmedic, and it is win for that family in case the target survives because they can play knowing that redtooth is not in the other mafia. Thoughts¿ [/QUOTE] Problem with this is if the declared target is in the same family as those that'll be targeting him - unless they're willing to sacrifice him.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:59 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:41 Malongo wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:36 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:32 Malongo wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote: My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there. Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway. [/QUOTE] I disagree here Ace. From mafia pov its direct that knowing all the bgs-> confirmed townies or at least few chances of mafia from the other family + 3 votes is huge. Think about this: this game is more likely to go until 20 players remain unless one family is absolutely demolishing the other. In this case having a mafia having 3 votes and clearing up the targets with the bgs list is lot better than 2 pardons overall. Having a mafia mayor is a huge advantage against the other mafia, having a pardoner *may* save one of your foes but its not like the other mafia cant target him anyways next night. As you see pardoner <<<< mayor for a mafia player. So the point is, what is redtooth going to do about his claim¿ The best way to set this up is : Redtooth self claimed medic declares his target for protection before the night. This way the other family /assuming redtooth is mafia/ has the chance to hit that target and unreveal redtooth. It is win for that family because then they force the town to lynch him if he turns nonmedic, and it is win for that family in case the target survives because they can play knowing that redtooth is not in the other mafia. Thoughts¿ [/QUOTE] Problem with this is if the declared target is in the same family as those that'll be targeting him - unless they're willing to sacrifice him.[/QUOTE] Ok. Then we force redtooth to protect a target from the town: me. As you see i cant not be in Redtooths family /if im mafia and so is him/ because that would be stupid. I cant be on the others family IM ASKING TO GET HIT and protected. What about that¿ if redtooth claims protection on me and he should be because that way he can prove himself then i will live. /unless there are stacked hits on me wish will be noted in the number of deaths/ If i die redtooth is mafia. THOUGHTS¿¿¿¿[/QUOTE] I think this might actually work.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:00 d3_crescentia wrote: On second thought, the problem would be if the mafia decided to entirely sidestep this plan. Hmm.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:08 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:06 Mystlord wrote: I don't think the plan would work since I highly doubt the mafia would waste a hit like that. Remember that the other mafia family has 3 hits and each of them are going to be aimed at a potential mafia. Why would one mafia family waste a hit so early in the game?[/QUOTE] Because they have nothing to lose either... it's in the mid-game where they can't waste hits. Do they know who else, amongst the 40 people that have been listed, could be mafia? I sincerely doubt that they have more than 2-3 guesses, and even then it's likely that at least one will turn up green.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:31 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:23 789 wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:17 Malongo wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:12 789 wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 13:03 Malongo wrote: [QUOTE]On February 16 2010 12:54 789 wrote: Malongo, your plan hinges on everyone going along with it and honestly participating. I mean say redtooth goes along with it ... why would a mafia family sacrifice a hit that may be blocked. Or say in the case that redtooth actually is a medic (yeah no, but let's just say) and BOTH mafia families hit you. It makes redtooth look like a lier. In a perfect world it is a good idea ... but it won't work in a practical application.[/QUOTE] A Supposing a mafia family suspects redtooth is mafia the will asap hit me to clear him. Its 3 votes + a protected role. They only lose a hit and prove redtooth, wich is useless because bg list is more likely infiltrated. Believe me the other family is liking his chops at this idea. B If hits stack¿ lol if hits stack i die and nothing else happens, redtooth isnt cleared and we have more gamble beetween families. Why wont work¿ i still dont see how can be bad for the town. Worst case scenario: mafia doesnt hit me and redtooth loses a protection that cant be directed to a town townie anyways. We have absolutely nothing to lose.[/QUOTE] I still don't see why the mafia would be licking their chops to cooperate. If they wanted to get rid of him they could act like townies and get him lynched. Why would they take a path that potentially wastes a hit and could potentially help the town greatly by giving them a trusted person to organize behind. Sure they know who a medic is if they want to target him - but I would think at least one of the BGs is still town aligned and he'd be protected. If they want to take him out there are other lower risk ways to do it and they wouldn't want to clear him.[/QUOTE] Mafia has to kill the other mafia to win. Having a guy that is likely to be part of one of the mafias in the mayor spot is clearly a big disadvantage to start with. Sure RT *may* prove himself. Then what¿ trusted BG list¿ he asks all the blues to pm him¿ he asks everyplayer to pm him his role¿ with 20 mafia in the game¿ Think about that for a minute.[/QUOTE] You bypassed my main point. Why would one of the mafia families risk a hit or helping the town when they could attempt a lynch play to take down redtooth.[/QUOTE] Because the point isn't to lynch redtooth. Redtooth flipping red/blue will give both the town AND the mafia some information - information they wouldn't be able to get by slogging through another 48 hours of day posts attempting to convince people otherwise.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:50 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:43 Bill Murray wrote: without detectives all we have are behavioral analysis and voting patterns, right? i don't see why a detective would roleclaim, they would get killed so fast, see: the last game i played[/QUOTE] Ugh, because the mafia want to kill other mafia, not the town. As long as the DT can be swayed by one family they will have an edge over the other one. And because the town wants to find and kill all mafia, they 1) use medics to protect DT and 2) carefully watch who else is feeding DT information.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:52 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:51 Faronel wrote: No... detectives claiming is safe. If they claim, then they can be covered by medics. While if they don't claim, they can get hit, and we will never know what the DT knew. Althought... personally DT should have some tidbit of vital information before claiming. Also, this is kind of important, do we know how many DT's we have in total, as this makes it much easier?[/QUOTE] No, we don't.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:57 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:52 Bill Murray wrote: [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:50 d3_crescentia wrote: [QUOTE]On February 17 2010 08:43 Bill Murray wrote: without detectives all we have are behavioral analysis and voting patterns, right? i don't see why a detective would roleclaim, they would get killed so fast, see: the last game i played[/QUOTE] Ugh, because the mafia want to kill other mafia, not the town. As long as the DT can be swayed by one family they will have an edge over the other one. And because the town wants to find and kill all mafia, they 1) use medics to protect DT and 2) carefully watch who else is feeding DT information.[/QUOTE] THEY? you speak like you're not a townie.[/QUOTE] I hope I die just so I can be another proof of how wrong you are. =][/QUOTE] [/spoiler] Ver is right on the money for everyone but Ace. There was a little bit more to his posting. Ace: - feels clues in the beginning are useless - L and zato-1 accused him off of clues right off the bat - claims to be green several times, and says L will die when he flips green - afraid Doctor Helvetica is going to get away with slipping it up (he compares it to the game qatol and L were on the same mafia, and both squirmed away from being lynched multiple times) [Note: I strongly encourage everyone to read his accusations.] - it might be worth our time to look at the posters who produce worthless posts - continues to "call" L out even later in the game - accusation against Doctor Helvetica not completely addressed, and they're not as aggressive as time goes on (made weary by the spam in the thread?) - jokes about putting a medic on infundibulum (PMs exchanged) Ace began the game with an argument with L over the importance of clues in the beginning of the game. Soon, he began accusing L of being in mafia while simultaneously attacking Doctor Helvetica of logical fallacies. In the end, he goes back to L and says he's the most likely to be mafia. Clue Analysis First Killer - Painstakingly careful and intentionally surreptitious - Tracksman (reads as if he’s tracking a deer or other hunt) - Sadistic; modus operandi: gasoline + fire Second Killer - walks purposefully - doesn’t sneak into the house: direct (knocks on the door) - ghostly; phantom-like? - modus operandi: spears? Arrows? Some impaling object Third Killer - Organized killer; planned - Uses a tool he placed on the scene of the crime before hand. - In doing so, he blocks out the light and alerts just about everyone of something suspicious. - Modus operandi: throws an emblematic object at someone but kills them with a pike through the stomach; delivers a message on the pike - Mocking or believes in human sacrifice Fourth Killer (Mafia 2) - Visible white particles in the air - Modus operandi: not present; some sort of chemist; not poison, but causes lightheadedness and other side-effects - I think the victim is knocked unconscious and suffocates. Fifth Killer (Mafia 2) (and sixth killer?) - Graffiti - Cold, menacing - Modus operandi: Uses a cooking object (why would he have this any way?) to kill | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 17 2010 23:49 citi.zen wrote: I just want to put this out there for future reference: Followed by: The person replying to this is LucaWoJ, a while after it was posted and in his first "real" attempt to contribute: Nothing here incriminates LucasWoJ or Ver. I am not accusing them and I cannot tie a single clue to either of them. However, if one turns up red at any point in time, this exchange is worth keeping in mind. Consider it a "grouping" if you will. It was merely me correcting something that was very out of place. I've played with Ver in 5-6 games, and I wasn't going to let something like that slip. Any misinformation on anyone is anti-town. Correcting misinformation strikes me as a positive thing to do. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
We need to continue talking so here is a summary of each player's posts up to page 82 for those who don't want to or cannot spend their time reading everything. This is kinda long, but it's still better than spending a day catching up: Ver + Show Spoiler + - argues that overly discussing clues helps the mafia - talking is good. using clues to start talking is not much good in the first two days. - mayoral candidates need to have a plan [E.N. I don't believe any had one] - accuses BC based on past behavior (mayoral post) -- seems like a legitimate accusation - Bill Murray seems innocent to him - praises L for not doing a half-assed job with clues. - does not want to be mayor because of how much time it would take. - mafia are sitting back and scheming according to Ver - those making real contributions up to that point (he fails to give out names) are innocent. - brings up meeple claiming that he's suspicious. Meeple is largely ignored. - extremely certain that at least Ace or L is mafia (02/15/10 @ 09:14) - one of his posts was a trap. He says the following people seem to have fallen for it: Empyrean, Nikoner, dozko, 789, Midori, and Bloodyc0bbler. All these people changed their behavior after the post, and it's very likely that they read it. - provides his own game plan (mayoral candidates had not done this yet) -- once again, very sound. clearly typed up before hand - comes up with a list of people who have been useless this game - publicly misinterprets BC's actions as "calculated" - brings up meeple again (ignored largely) - comes up with a medic list - comes up with a detective check list - took a hit during the night (he was on the medic list, too) - goes back and summarizes (not analyzes) the dead people's points - creates an "important posts" post Extremely quick analysis Ver has been giving out a lot of hints this game and seems to have taken over the role of teacher for those who have not played the game as much as him. Although his intentions seem clear, he has not yet been right in his accusations, and it's possible that his accusations were meant to waste another mafia family's hits for the night. If Ver does not continue taking hits at night, something's up. His helpfulness throughout the entire game so far, indicates to me, at least, that he isn't working with another group (meaning he's only working with the town). Also, no mafia died at night. I should hope that at least one would have had Ver been on their team. (Nevertheless, Ver could be hoping to use PM information to find the other mafia family. He can actually play as part of the town finding other mafia members.) DoctorHelvetica + Show Spoiler + - agrees that clues speculation helps the mafia. He just states that as his opinion - but we should make clue themes - runs for mayor on the platform that he will almost blindly follow the town (unless it cures him of his blindness through its blatant stupidity) - agrees with ver's big posts about how to play the game in the beginning - suspicious of L using clues (says this is bad by pointing to big names who oppose this method) - points out that Bill Murray's posts have "so many fucking things wrong" with them, and responds to each of them. convinced BM is mafia - makes an argument compilation up to page 24 @ 07:40 - flip flops from BM to empyream to Ace. - spams the thread senselessly by replying to BM's troll attempts - clue links mystlord (February 16 2010 07:24) - suspicious of zona (clue links) (February 16 2010 09:40) Very Quick Analysis DoctorHelvetica is very active for the majority of the game claiming that he's on the internet all day, and when he's not in this thread, he's watching the TSL or some hornet (?) game. He often makes an effort to contribute, but he falls into the clue analysis he claims cannot possibly be helpful (so hypocrite), and he spams the thread. He's indecisive about who he thinks is red: he went from L to Ace/redtooth to BM to mystlord/zona. This is probably because he's impulsive in his posting, and besides the 4-5 very good posts he's made, he treats this thread more like an instant messenger program. MasterDana + Show Spoiler + -runs for mayor because he's a nice guy - accuses 789 of being mafia (clue based) (February 15 2010 16:23) His connections seem very shaky at best (especially because he makes more than just one). - asks numerous self-explanatory questions like "Is this as big a deal as it seems? In previous games, has a Mafia Mayor done a huge amount of damage?" - defends his ignorance by saying he's really ignorant - exaggerates the "aggression" towards him Very Quick Analysis He's been exceedingly suspicious the entire game. He makes a half-assed attempt at clue analysis which just doesn't hold up. He stays silent the entire game asking rather silly questions. If this were not his first game (or so he claims), I would proclaim rather confidently that he's scummy. Johnnyspaz + Show Spoiler + - blames inactivity for the first night on family (after the game begins) - contributes nothing by laughing at how bill murray already got caught in his posting (inaccurate representation, I believe, of what was going on) - ready to change votes - says it's difficult to read long posts - white particles in his book mean dandelions or snow. Analysis Largely useless the entire game. He's one of those people lurking the thread coming out every now and then to say "I agree with X." He seems to be trying to contribute with clue analysis, but he's not doing a very good or convincing job at it at all. citi.zen + Show Spoiler + - runs for office - disagrees with Ace and Ver. Analyzing clues, on balance, helps the town. - makes some clue connections for the following people: BC, Ace, empyrean, amber, fishball, zato, mystlord, cynanmachae - long behavioral post on stuff he's noticed - spams the thread himself with something he thought was amusing (after complaining that it's easy to bury good posts with spam) - suggests that Lucaswoj and ver are working together in the same mafia - shyly suggests that zona is not posting as actively as he should be - a second clue analysis post in which he finds connections from the night before, and links vivi57, xelin, quickstriker, nikkoner, meeple, ohn, mystlord, Phrujbaz. [Note: he uses the same connection johnnyspaz used earlier) Analysis Citi.zen does a lot to help the town. His clue analysis was admittedly weak on some people, and seemingly legitimate on others. He's not afraid to call out Ace, Ver, etc. vivi57 + Show Spoiler + - started late; reads through thread slowly so cannot respond to much. - clue very important - believes Ace and BC to be in the same family with empyrean in there as well (coincidentally, another mafia family thought so as well). - wasted a mafia family's hits in posting that - medics should protect the mafia ver and mafia BC - useless spam Analysis He hasn't posted much, and what he has hurt the town. He's also spamming, so only further anti-town. LucasWoJ + Show Spoiler + Wouldn't be fair to do this myself Xelin + Show Spoiler + He's posted so few times you might as well read what he's said: On February 14 2010 18:24 XeliN wrote: Oh no Bill what hast thou done!! Trying to come up with a plausible explanation for how "other" slipped in there but im drawing blank. Firstly the activity in this game is amazing, expected to wake up with a good few pages to read, did not expect 20+... Not entirely sure on who to vote for atm, going to have to go over the thread without skim reading, but I'm glad Bloody emphasised just how bad 10f's plan was (If elected he said he would lynch someone who was Mafia from a previous game) and can't believe more people didnt bring this up, but as I said have only skimmed so far. On February 17 2010 10:37 XeliN wrote: Ok, I have been exceptionally busy with uni work over the last 2 days and has such havent trusted myself to use the internet (If i do i get no work done simple as that) Apologies for being inactive, I can and will be active from this point on. Have spent the last hour and a half going through the thread and firstly Ace turning green suprised me, simply reading the whole thread in one big chunk and i felt he was contributing little and not defending himself against accusations well (and he is meant to be a veteran player). Bill Murray, there seems to be some kind of idea especially at an earlier stage in the thread that he is clearly "innocent". From reading his posts I get quite the opposite feeling, he has been influential and accusatory, even changing votes last minute although was one of the few people who also changed last minute to give an explanation namely: "I didn't want Red to be pardoner". I would be inclined to consider him Mafia far more than a townie, but this is mostly on impression from going through the thread in one big chunk. Anyway now I'm going to dedicate some time to something I did none of in the last mafia game and try to analyse some clues! On February 17 2010 10:54 XeliN wrote: One thing that immediately strikes me about the Day 2 post is the Fairy Tale connection that seems inherent within it. Remeniscient of the "3 little piggies" or "3 bears" and seems like an underlying structure of the whole post. Analysis He adds nothing important to the discussion, and makes a false promise. He has NOT been active since yesterday, when he claimed he would be. His clue analysis is an observation. He doesn't expand on it at all, so I can't garnish any information from that. Right now, his posts have little content and value. I want to see that activity he promised several hours ago. Amber[Light] + Show Spoiler + - disagreed initially with Ver, but over the course of writing a rebuttal, he agreed with him. - points out that random people are voting BM and says that town should stop with the Ace BS. - makes a very useful post summarizing several key players Analysis He intentionally skews people's opinions (or makes them into extremes, at least) in order to generate some discussion. He certainly accomplishes this. fishball + Show Spoiler + - claims green townie - would lynch abenson first - very few posts at all, yet claims to be reading Analysis Typical fishball. Not enough information to really conclude anything. Very bad for town, and ought to start contributing soon. quickstriker + Show Spoiler + - says he will be back a little later at the start of the game and comes back 8 hours later impressed by the length of the thread - wants a summary of pages 24-40 - comes in the next day, lol, and shouts before asking for a summary of pages 40-81. Rather, he EXPECTS a summary. This guy is extremely amusing. Search all of his posts. It's the most useless crap I've ever seen. He's so lazy that he demands a summary of everything. Very anti-town and ought to start contributing to the town soon. 789 + Show Spoiler + - misses the first day of gameplay (Gregorian calendar; not mafia time), and gives an excuse for missing part of the next - defends himself by saying clues lean more toward Ace and empyrean. Very soft-spoken. - most of his posts are self-evident "fluff posts" - clues are useless because they point to me and that shouldn't be - acknowledges both days that the clues fit him - accuses Zona [IMPORTANT] Analysis He talks often, and although he contributes something, his posts often seem empty. He goes out on a limb in day 2 accusing zona of being the last remaining person left who could fit the clue empyrean and Ace both fit. He is right about his limited activity. He could be green or mafia hoping to eliminate the other mafia family. dozko + Show Spoiler + - disagrees with Ace about clues - believes L to be green for several reasons: (1) clue analysis at beginning = pro town; (2) voting pattern indicates L is innocent - calls out xelin for not posting much Analysis Doesn't post often, but when he does, his posts are well-thought out. He should post more often to be more useful to the town. nikoner + Show Spoiler + - joins up after 28 pages - clues are always right, even if your interpretation of them is wrong. (lololol) - lynching a mafia hastily could potentially have a disastrous effect on the game. It's probably best to let them kill off each other for now, while gently making suggestions based on logic and science as to who they should... dispose of. - mafia running for office - randomly accuses Phrujbaz of being mafia. NO justification given, so of course, no one cares. - distraught that redtooth is pushing for office so hard - advises L not to lynch anyone if that option exists.He's "wary of the possibility that lynching a mafia will lower one family's KP" Analysis His logic makes no sense, and he doesn't contribute anything to the town. It seems he's playing the game for personal pride. Better start contributing something soon. tree-hugger + Show Spoiler + Read his posts! On February 15 2010 13:03 tree.hugger wrote: I have a feeling that way to many of these posts, especially the ones from our veterans are tainted by personal feelings. Which is a little disappointing, because only unbiased, in-depth analysis is what is going to win us the game. And activity of course. I don't think my last stint as mayor would make me a good choice for the post, but I would suggest that the mayor be someone without the massive ego. Analysis Immediately worthy of being lynched. His lack of contribution to the game is absurd. Shockeyy + Show Spoiler + - announces that he read everything but besides just that, he says nothing - spams - agrees that decafchicken is lurking and is GF Analysis Another one with five one-line posts in the thread. His behavior in his posts is very weird. No one's accused him yet. Someone ought to. Do any clues link up to him? Something is very off with him. He's definitely worth another look. meeple + Show Spoiler + - runs for mayor without a real platform - stay impartial - profile the killers in the day posts right away - BC's out-of-character is not enough to lynch him. (defends BC) - defends BM; not convinced he's red. - hunt for mafia; don't rely on mafia crosshits - responds to trolls - claims mid-term season is cutting down on his time in mafia, but he has nearly 100 posts in this thread, and he's just about always in here. He might as well stop responding to trolls and post something more useful. - empyrean is more red than Ace, but Ace, if red, gives us more information - tells us what a mafia would and would not do [this sets off an alarm] Analysis Everything he does strikes me as safe and calculated, so to speak. He's unwilling to take any risks. He lies about inactivity. He's playing like mafia. It's all there. chezinu + Show Spoiler + troll; I'm not going to waste my time scamp + Show Spoiler + - claims to be green. - argues that medics RC'ing at any point is a bad move Analysis Green Zona + Show Spoiler + - town has less impact on the game than mafia. - game is imbalanced against the town - town should point out mafia for the other family to kill at night (but concedes that this can be bad because it might result in a superior mafia family) - defends accusations by saying that being passive this game is the best way to play it from the town's point of view Comments Start playing. Passivity doesn't really help the town much either. Being active always helps, even in this format. L + Show Spoiler + - claims clues blatantly point towards Ace - clues are going to be easy in this game because of the set-up - constantly reminds people not to make empty posts because it will discourage others from reading the thread. - implores that those who do not agree with how he interpretted the clues to post. BC heeds this post. L responds logically to BC's post. - claims empyrean was apathetic [Note: I think he meant indifferent, and not apathetic.] - accuses four people of being in mafia clue-wise "nemy, madnessman, mystlord, phrubaz" - going to post in twelve hours explaining how he reached that conclusion Analysis Seems town-sided, but one cannot overlook how royally he screwed up on the clues first day. He was still willing to listen to and respond to others' interpretation of them though. laaan + Show Spoiler + - potential clue fits: 789, ace, malongo, amber[light], mystlord - spams the thread with "chezinu makes me giggle"s key post: On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote: My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful. For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game. Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town. So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice. The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy. + Show Spoiler + On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote: enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because... I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR ![[image loading]](http://i47.tinypic.com/hx9rb9.png) PLATFORM I am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory. I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town. Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living. THE OTHER CANDIDATES All of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen). Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone: Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise. PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSE Some may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes). My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me. LYNCH CANDIDATE If elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted. So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but FUTURE PLANS To kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis. If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more. Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly). tl;dr You shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent. Thank you for your time. The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans. First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason. As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy. As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace. Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet. I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post: I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything. My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way. I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response. Everything else is pretty much useless Analysis I'm not sure what to think of him. He doesn't seem to be pro-town at all times and is just reiterating everything that's already been said, but then he comes out with that. It's possible he's green, and it's possible he's red. I'm tired. I'll continue this in a later post. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On February 15 2010 05:40 Phrujbaz wrote: I am confused about the rules. Is the game over if all of mafia from one family are dead, or does the rest of the mafia play vs town like a normal game? On February 16 2010 06:55 Phrujbaz wrote: In my opinion, clues should allude to which family a Mafia is from, or the game is impossible to win. On February 17 2010 03:07 Phrujbaz wrote: Ver PMed me but to be honest it seemed like a good town player hunting an inactive rather than anything out of the ordinary. I have him pegged as "good player" because of it, I wouldn't make the link to "Mafia". On February 18 2010 05:11 Phrujbaz wrote: by the way, Nikoner is Mafia. I can't believe none of you guys have noticed this yet. On February 19 2010 06:00 Phrujbaz wrote: This is a very tough lynch (as also evidenced by the large number of abstains). I think we shouldn't (yet) lynch anyone that has made at least some useful contributions. That means we should not lynch the following people: Ver Bill Murray Mystlord DoctorHelvetica nemY Zona did post a lot of text, but not really much useful. He seems to have a lot of time though, so maybe if we give him a chance, he will turn those walls of gibberish into walls of win. I do not think we should lynch him yet either. From currently voted for people, that leaves Faronel, Nikoner, and Xelin as acceptable lynch candidates, although I don't really feel enthusiastic about lynching any of them. Mystlord + Show Spoiler + On February 14 2010 10:48 Mystlord wrote: Some thoughts on what I've read (I might be forgetting some stuff): I think that clues are definitely important pre-Day 3, but we shouldn't lynch on them, rather they should be used to get everyone discussing. Lynching based purely off of clues is completely retarded early in the game because there's nothing backing anything up, and in a game like this, where we have a lot of variety, they could point to someone completely different, and we'd be none the wiser. That said, we should be getting everyone to participate in the discussion. There's nothing worse than inactives, which, as Ver pointed out, ultimately hurts the town as they look just as suspicious as the mafia, which leads to wasted lynches and random lynches. And as for L's suggestion to lynch Chezinu Day 1, I don't think that's a good idea. Last time that was tried (t_co), it absolutely did nothing. At the very least we need something other than "a lot of posts" for a valid lynch. On February 14 2010 10:50 Mystlord wrote: Ah ha ha I remember that. I think clues would mostly be concentrated in areas that actually describe somehow the killers right? I didn't take notice if that was the case at the end of the last mafia game, but I believe that was how it turned out. On February 14 2010 11:56 Mystlord wrote: Such elitism. Regardless, I'm still all for incorporating clues into Day 1 discussion. For instance, we now have a defense from you, which is good for building a profile, whether you're innocent or not. On February 14 2010 12:09 Mystlord wrote: Then what do we do Day 1? Sit on our asses and come up with overall plans that have undoubtedly been said already in other mafia games? On February 14 2010 14:55 Mystlord wrote: Ok cool this is good for us. All we need now is more people joining in... redtooth: I don't think that using "correctness" from previous games is good for anything. Posting behavior, like Ver used, is fine, but whether or not a person is correct doesn't really account for anything. If you find an inconsistency or a consistency in how L is posting here versus how he has in the past, then you could build a case against him. Not otherwise. In any case, I am all for a mayor that is uninvolved in this entire mess. We've already had doubts concerning Ace, and I for one trust Chenizu as far as I can throw him, so we should begin narrowing our mayor candidates. After all, don't forget that discussion concerning who we should elect as mayor AND pardoner are just as revealing about behavior. On February 14 2010 15:03 Mystlord wrote: But you used it to justify Ace as a player. L used it in a general sense, and it was not a major component of his argument. If Ace is Mafia this game, then that argument makes no sense. On February 14 2010 15:44 Mystlord wrote: What is this, personal glory time? Makes no sense whatsoever. And I think BloddyC0bbler's statement regarding l10f has some truth in it. On February 14 2010 18:23 Mystlord wrote: Every high-activity poster other than Ace? And I wouldn't label Ver as high-activity... In fact, I think this is the first time we've had a serious accusation against him. And the "other godfather" slip is pretty big... I'm curious to see what's going to happen. Let's not forget the mayor elections in the midst of this though. On February 15 2010 10:25 Mystlord wrote: Wasted posts. It gets annoying and demotivates me. When I see a new page pop up after I finish reading a previous page, it makes me want to just stop... You know, labeling people as blue, red, or green is nice and all... but we should be concentrating on the mayoral elections. I for one don't want to end up putting a crap or mafia mayor/pardoner into office because people are just riding the bandwagon. Some people have brought up the point that we shouldn't vote citi.zen in based purely on performance in past games, and I'm inclined to agree with them. There is absolutely no reason why we should be taking performance in previous games into account unless we're using them to establish a shift in posting behavior or as a case example (such as Ver's usage when accusing BC and meeple and L's usage to draw a parallel between this game and another game). We should be extremely cautious, and I encourage people to give a more valid reason than "he served us well in the previous game". The question remains though: who can we trust? I have no idea . Everyone running has something about them that I just find suspicious or that makes them kind of untrustworthy.On February 15 2010 13:24 Mystlord wrote: Ahhh too mucch reading... Picking out some posts that I think I should respond to: First off, I actually missed your post BC, sorry about that .In any case, I agree that the clues can point to me (lol how am I supposed to doubt that?), however, I think the more pertinent clue for the fire one lies in the fact that the torch flew in through a window opposite the horsemen. That could indicate a magical or supernatural component in the killing, and not that it is one of the members of Mafia B that threw the torch. I have nothing to say about the horsemen that kills Qatol because, well, the only clue we get about him is the cackling and the moonlight, which my profile does match. Now as for L's response, the first passage specifically mentions that there were two horsemen that met with Qatol, so it'd be a bit of a stretch to assume that the horseman in paragraph 2 is the exact same one in paragraph 1. Another note is that auto-assuming that a clue is a red herring isn't a good way to look at clues, at least in my opinion. Everything that appears should be considered relevant unless proven otherwise. One final note about the rooftop killer - the passage mentions that the killer ripped Incognito's head off. The girl in my profile has a sword, which doesn't "rip" at all. On February 15 2010 13:34 Mystlord wrote: I put it into OpenOffice Calc, and tadaaa doctorhelvetica 92 chezinu 70 bill murray 57 meeple 57 redtooth 50 l 42 iaaan 40 ace 39 bloodyc0bbler 36 abenson 32 d3_crescentia 23 789 23 citi.zen 19 incognito 19 fulgrim 18 [nyc]hobbes 17 zato-1 17 flamewheel91 12 mystlord 11 sidesprang 11 ver 10 qatol 10 infundibulum 7 madnessman 6 sugiuramidori 6 malongo 6 phrujbaz 6 l10f 6 faronel 5 zona 5 fishball 5 johnnyspazz 5 scamp 5 caller 5 xelin 5 dozko 5 ~opz~ 5 shockeyy 4 cynanmachae 4 nikoner 4 masterdana 3 tree.hugger 3 nemy 3 best[alive] 3 foolishness 3 amber[light] 2 empyrean 2 quickstriker 2 shikyo 2 vivi57 2 ohn 1 tredmasta 1 lucaswoj 1 stimilant 1 On February 15 2010 17:40 Mystlord wrote: Ok first of all, Bill Murray, you've taken over Chenizu's personality and made it about 50 times worse. You're making the thread expand at an exponential rate with little to no substance being added. I like how some people are taking an in depth clue analysis Day 1, but unless we can pin someone down on both clues and scummy behavior, it's not going to help too much. As of right now, I would vote to lynch an inactive, purely because right now, we have about 4 to 5 people completely caught up in their own little world making snide comments and arguing, and the rest of us are just barely trying to keep up. If all of you are green (as you claim), then you're literally self-destructing, and the mafia don't need to do anything but sit back and relax. I would definitely feel uncomfortable lynching any major player right now because I haven't seen anyone just completely fall apart and seem completely scummy. On the same note, I'm still unsure who to vote for mayor right now because all of them have like this vendetta against another active player or something. On February 16 2010 07:55 Mystlord wrote: There's just so many useless posts that I'm having trouble picking through it all... It could be a calculated sacrifice. If town is convinced that someone is mafia, mafia would be unwilling to put up a strong defense of that person without seeming scummy. We might see a light defense though. Also, there's just not that much to defend for him. He hasn't spoken one. freaking. word. As for my profile pic, nothing to say. It's a solid connection to the clues, and I won't blame you if you end up lynching me based off of that. Oh, and another point about Empyrean... Where do we go from his lynch? Are we just lynching to help out the other mafia family or what? I might be a bit ignorant in this, so I'd like to get this cleared up before I'm fully on board with the Empyrean lynch. It seems more like a dead end to me. If he truly is mafia, why not let a mafia family waste a kill on him? On February 16 2010 08:35 Mystlord wrote: Correct. I want the town to do nothing, and the mafia to do all the work. I believe that our lynches should be used to reveal potential mafia, not actually kill mafia. If we're to pit the mafia against each other, then it stands to reason that we'd want to give mafia leads, not start lynching one a day. As far as I'm concerned, lynching Empyrean gets us nowhere. On February 16 2010 10:01 Mystlord wrote: What the hell? The most retarded stuff happened while I stepped out. First redtooth roleclaims medic before the elections are over (WTF?!), then people vote him into office because you're afraid of losing a medic? And now we can't confirm if he's a medic. Great. Obviously either common sense has been completely destroyed, or scum is at work here. Oh dear God BM. Your logic fails on so many levels... Why would mafia 100% defend ace/redtooth? And I can't even pretend to understand the rest of your post. By the way, DrH, you asked before the elections were over who'd I lynch, and I'd lean towards Ace. He's just involved with too many people and has made too many posts. However, I'm not confident in that enough to push for an Ace lynch, although the vote switching has made me a bit more suspicious again... Oh yeah, and it appears that we have gotten nothing off of the Empyrean lynch. Huzzah! Time to wait for Night 2... On February 16 2010 10:06 Mystlord wrote: Well at this point, I'm pretty sure that anything said now will just be a repeat of what was already said in Day 1. The Empyrean lynch got us no leads and no information, and I don't think we can really do all that much besides more clue analysis, of which we already have quite a bit on. On February 16 2010 13:06 Mystlord wrote: I don't think the plan would work since I highly doubt the mafia would waste a hit like that. Remember that the other mafia family has 3 hits and each of them are going to be aimed at a potential mafia. Why would one mafia family waste a hit so early in the game? On February 17 2010 09:50 Mystlord wrote: Oh crap. I leave for home in a few, so I'll be back later. If the mafia have teamed up to eliminate the town first, we're in deep shit. On the other hand, I'm curious to know who was medic saved. Oh yeah, and I notice a distinct lack of descriptive detail in this post compared to the first one. Kind of weird, but I think the clues really jut out at us this time. I'll take a closer look when I get home. On February 17 2010 11:21 Mystlord wrote: First of all, Chezinu posted earlier that he's surprised that neither 789 nor I was killed Day 1. I also find that rather suspicious. The only thing I can say in my defense is that the mafia reasoned that there were better people to kill. Note that none of the Day 1 targets were clue based that weren't also high profile targets. Some clue analysis time. I'll bold the areas that I think are significant. The same motif of fire and the contrast between darkness and light. I can't think of any reason why two of the exact same clues would exist that point to different mafia members, so I'm going to assume that this is referring to the same person. A few things to note besides the fire and the darkness/light contrast is how careful this mafioso is. He's a tracker - silent and observant. This again matches with the first horsemen from Day 1, as he notices Qatol sneaking into the barn. A list of characteristics: -A tracker -Observant -Loves fire and gasoline -Loves the contrast between darkness and light I'm having a bit of trouble with exactly what happens, so I might be wrong here. So first off, we see another mafia that has no trouble with tracking, or he's at least well acquainted with the area. He's not a blundering oaf. Something else to note is the method of death. Sharp objects, I believe, is a pretty significant method of execution. It's very brutal. Something of interest, though, is how the mafia escaped. If I'm reading the story correctly, the mafia apparently blew a hole out of the wall? Or am I misinterpreting that. I'm not exactly sure where to go with that. Perhaps someone else could shed some more light on that. -Doesn't get lost. Knows his way around. -Kills through sharp objects. -Blows a hole through a wall to escape? Rather sparse set of clues. A mafia that plans ahead of time, although apparently BloodyC0bbler is deaf or a moron, or a combination of the two . Jokes aside, this mafia is not afraid to destroy a ton of stuff to get at his target. Obviously a miniature stone sphinx is important...-Plans ahead of time -Loves destruction -Stone sphinx to kill. (I don't think anyone with a stone sphinx as a profile pic is a target though, seems too obvious. I believe an Egyptian reference is much more likely here.) Meanings of a Sphinx: -Temple guardian -Riddle of the Sphinx. Note: I'm cautious on the second one, but we can't count it out. There's a lot more, found: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphinx Again, a rather sparse clue selection. I read this two ways: 1) The attacker is a nature lover, and the particles are part of nature. Meadows implies flowers after all. 2) The meadows are a coincidence, and the attacker just loves using poison. Important - This mafia does not like to get his hands dirty. First one we've seen. -Nature lover and uses flowers/pollen poison or something. -or just pure and straight up poison. -Mafia does not like to get his hands dirty. Ok, I laughed when I read this. Sorry, just had to say that. First of all, something to note here is that there are two people. Two people arguing, and a pan was thrown in d3's face. Something else to note here is that the two people were arguing. This indicates anger in this killer, again, something not seen in any of the other killers. The pan... Not exactly sure it's significant other than the fact that it's a household, ordinary item. Perhaps it was thrown up in a fit of rage? -Two people -Anger and rage First of all, note that this DOES NOT invalidate the symbolism of the Sphinx. In fact, it in a way affirms the symbolism of the Sphinx in that the message is religious in nature. I am, however, unsure of how exactly BC was killed with the metal pike. I'm assuming that it was planted in him after the tower got destroyed. I'm not sure what else to say about this. On February 17 2010 11:23 Mystlord wrote: I don't see me for Killer 1. I don't see any moonlight references - just the contrast between light and dark. And by the way, you're missing half of the equation for the fire - the gasoline. On February 17 2010 11:28 Mystlord wrote: If mafia hit a vet, and Ver claimed the hit, that's a really dangerous ploy. Ver made no mention of being a Veteran, so I can only assume a medic blocked the hit. To the medic: Please don't reveal yourself to anyone, not even to Ver. On February 17 2010 11:33 Mystlord wrote: I reread the first story, and this jumped out at me: I think that's a reference that he's terrorizing the town in day time. Could also refer to the fire, but I think the day time is far more likely. Since the first attack took place at night, I think it means that he terrorized the town at night then, and he's terrorizing the town at daytime now. And the character in my profile is not throwing sharp things. Those crystals are part of her wings. Sorry for the high frequency of posts. I just love having something objective I can grasp onto. Interpretation might be wrong, but let's get the facts straight first. On February 17 2010 18:08 Mystlord wrote: Two posts that I think are good to respond to: Those are some fairly large assumptions. I'm not necessarily convinced that Mafia 1 from Day 1 and Mafia 1 from Day 2 are separate though. The similarities are rather stark. At the very least, one of the mafia from Day 1 should match with the day 2 mafia. It makes the most sense logically. As for assumption 2, perhaps. Regardless, I'm convinced that the Sphinx is tied to the perpetrator, whether loosely or not. I don't get a) or b) because the mafia has other hits to hit either Meeple or I. In fact, I think you're actually limiting the possibilities. First of all, none of the non-big name player hits from Day 2 appeared to have any major connection with the clues. Otherwise, 789 and I would have been good targets for the mafia to hit. While this can point to 789 and I being mafia, it could also mean that, like Ace, both mafia teams decided that behavior was much more important for Day 1 hits and geared their hits towards taking out as many suspicious people as possible. After all, mafia Day 1, just like town Day 1, is essentially a giant crapshoot. Now I didn't quote this, but referring to one of your other posts where you bring up previous posts. I'm not exactly sure how their posts will help us too much considering that they're all town. I can see how a mafia's posts would certainly help the town, but when you have nothing to compare it with... The most we can say is that none of their accusations were clearly anti-town, but that's not to say that they clearly or even vaguely point to other people. Uhh... If that last part made no sense it's because it's too early in the morning and I need some sleep... On February 18 2010 09:20 Mystlord wrote: Hm I didn't consider that BC might have been hit twice. That would actually make sense, and it kind of kills my theory on religion + sphinx. Oh well. Regardless, if BC was actually double hit, it means that BC planted a bomb on Ver, which places a bit more suspicion on Ver. However, we have established that his play is actually not all that inconsistent, so the double hit doesn't mean all too much. That said, I'll finally get around to profiles when I get home today (at school atm), so I'll just defend myself for now. I will assume that this is the story you're talking about: For comparison, I'll bring up the Day 1 story again: I'll do my best to point out WHY these two stories are almost certainly referring to two different people. In the day 2 story, I see no reference to the crazed psychopathic noises referred to in day 1. There is no indication of the crazed laughing either. Instead, the killer is calm and collected. This is a fundamental difference between the Day 1 and Day 2 killers. If there is always one undercurrent that runs throughout the clues, it's that their personality, once established, remains the same. Since Day 1 killer has a clearly different personality than Day 2 killer, I'd argue that they're two completely different people. At most, you can hook me off of the Day 1 clues (although there is no mention of light being blocked - merely a rooftop killer, which is a rather weak persona IMO. Psychopathic and loves to kill? Now that's a persona.) At the very least, do not lynch me based off of the connection between the Day 1 and Day 2 clues, or I'll lose my faith in humanity and logic  .Actually, I was going to post something completely separate here regarding who I think is a good Day 2 lynch, but it'll break continuity and I feel that people's eyes will just glaze over at length, so I'll save it for later after some posts have been made. On February 18 2010 11:56 Mystlord wrote: @Ver: Ok, so you're a Veteran. I don't doubt you. Like I said when you first told us you got hit, the risk is too great to lie. I'm not exactly sure how that helps us in any way though. Of course. Ignore me. Any justifiable reason? On February 19 2010 08:12 Mystlord wrote: Interesting note: Where are all the people that claimed that any clue analysis before Day 3 is useless? We saw a huge outcry of that Day 1, then Day 2 it's suddenly disappeared... Rather suspicious if you ask me. Even Ver has stopped espousing that. I'm also wondering why people are randomly voting without rationale. Ver pointed this out, but I'll point out that I have not seen anyone give a great justification as to why they're voting the way they are. This not only applies to me, but even more so to Bill Murray. Why are you lynching him? I haven't seen anyone in this thread point a finger to him, yet he's picking up speed and is apparently behind me in lynch votes. Oh yeah, and SC2 took away the activity in this thread. I'll expect limited participation for the rest of the game, so even if I get lynched, I don't think I'll care too much One final point: Experienced Mafia know how to blend in with the town. They want to make the town believe that they are, first and foremost, one of them. For the past few days, we've been assuming that scum make mistakes or have a different play style than the town, but this assumption should only hold true for those nooby players. As of right now, we might like to play follow the leader with our best players, but at the same time, we're in the most danger of dying to these same players. The best players in mafia would, logically, be the ones that would best blend in with the crowd. So, the list: Ver L Zona Caller redtooth Infundibulum (list compiled off of my limited knowledge of who has played before) These people should be at the forefront of our list in terms of who to keep an eye on, especially since they'll probably be playing extremely town-like. Ver has claimed his innocence (which I believe), but I think it'd be prudent to keep a watch on everyone who is an experienced player. On February 19 2010 08:44 Mystlord wrote: Because I didn't see your post Ver Regardless, I'm 100% sure that I'm going to be voted off by the least amount of votes ever. BM: I actually never considered that. It's possible that BC placed a bomb on a target the mafia hit, then when that person died, his bomb got refunded. Unless a DT role checks Ver and finds that he is a Veteran, then town has no way of checking whether Ver is telling the truth. On February 19 2010 08:49 Mystlord wrote: Oh yeah, and another reason why I'll be glad to be gone. As of right now, we have 45 players remaining. 39 players have voted. So besides me, 6 people will get modkilled tonight. Rofl. 7 people out of the game in one fell swoop unless in the next 10 minutes people start voting. On February 19 2010 09:02 Mystlord wrote: Ah yes, just throwing this out there. Please remember that we have 2 mafia families. Keeping that in mind, whoever a mafia accuses is not cleared in any way if he flips red. The suspicion level remains the same. Ultimately, you'll end up getting little information off of a correct lynch in a game like this with 2 families. On February 19 2010 06:00 Phrujbaz wrote: This is a very tough lynch (as also evidenced by the large number of abstains). I think we shouldn't (yet) lynch anyone that has made at least some useful contributions. That means we should not lynch the following people: Ver Bill Murray Mystlord DoctorHelvetica nemY Zona did post a lot of text, but not really much useful. He seems to have a lot of time though, so maybe if we give him a chance, he will turn those walls of gibberish into walls of win. I do not think we should lynch him yet either. From currently voted for people, that leaves Faronel, Nikoner, and Xelin as acceptable lynch candidates, although I don't really feel enthusiastic about lynching any of them. Might as well read over their posts while waiting for Ver's post. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote: My analysis: Killer 1: [r]Mystlord[/r] Sorry man, too many fire and moonlight references for me to overlook this. Your posting hasn't especially been incriminating, but you're laying low similar to the last game... Killer 4: [r]Phrujbaz[/r] Sneezing and white things reference Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r] Bickering and madness references Dunno about the others yet | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 21 2010 03:27 tree.hugger wrote: If somebody can find one plausible connection to myself in any the deaths, then I'll vote for myself for lynching. Point being, there is not a shred of textual evidence against me, merely my inactivity (which I have explained) and a post by I10f which says absolutely nothing. If I am lynched off of flimsy, manufactured, and conjectured circumstantial evidence in two posts, then I have no doubt the town will lose this game. Ver, you're supposed to actually be good at this game, either you've totally lost your wits, or you're mafia. Mafia mafia mafia. You're no longer inactive, yet you're still not contributing. Find a better target. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
On February 21 2010 07:08 XeliN wrote: Can someone knowledgable explain if Ver is completely innocent or still open to suspicion btw? I kinda decided to trust him and PM'd him my role but im having misgivings Intentional slip ups like this don't make us think you're blue. It makes us think that you intentionally want us to think you're blue. Versatile, you'll never have a sure mafia lynched up. At this point though, we have 4-5 who are very likely mafia: scamp, johnnyspazz, tree.hugger, zona, decafchicken, shocckey, amber[light], etc. I just don't see how "we have no candidates right now" (which is false) can justify not voting for double lynch, a move that has the potential to help soo much. | ||
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
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LucasWoJ
United States936 Posts
Scamp protects LucasWoJ. <-- I messed up. Sorry Scamp and LucasWoJ. <3 scamp Oh, and thanks incog and flamewheel for hosting this game. | ||
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