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On January 12 2014 04:09 sidesprang wrote:Show nested quote +On January 12 2014 04:01 Balla24 wrote:
Note: "I'm not comfortable lynching him" does not mean "I don't feel scummy on him" you very clearly felt scummy on him D1. I feel you are really bad at reading my posts. I state the reason for me doing that analysis is that he was one of the two possible lynch candidates at that time. And since I was going out and would not be there for the last hours I felt I should atleast look into them both. I said it could be possible that he was scum, but mostly if theDragoon also was scum. But I also said I felt that theory was very circumstantial. So how you get that post to be "you very clearly felt scummy on him D1" I dont even know....
Good answer. Sorry if I misread or whatever but the activity level is abysmal atm. I don't want to leave the thread in a state like this if I die. So i'm pushing all the people who are possibly scum:
It's very clear that you are not ALL scum, but the way you guys are playing are making it very hard to narrow it down. As you can see I can easily find things to poke at for everyone, which not only makes it easy for scum to do so as well but thats what makes it so hard for town to narrow it down.
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@Balla
What is so scummy about it, your doing the exact same thing from everybody else and forcing them to explain things, what makes you such a special case that whenever you say something we should just let you pass cause your active? Jonny (i think) said that you are active both scum and town so I find no reason why you felt that posting that you will post your thoughts later and then now not wanting to is scummy from me. Seems like your being very defensive. And you don't have to post now, just before night ends (even if its 1 sec before)
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@Balla
Ok that certainly clarified. Your question. Currently I suspect BigDad most, but I'm not sure who would be second most suspicious. Since onlywonderboy turned out to be townie, I'm suspecting sidesprang again. sidesprang's filter has only one mention of BigDad. sidesprang said they would look into BigDad but hasn't said anything yet. I'm somewhat suspicious of Day_Walker, but Day_Walker doesn't seem very probable scum buddy for BigDad.
So quick analysis tells me that BigDad and sidesprang might be in scum team.
I'll look through some filters and give you more detailed answer and anwer the other question. Meanwhile, I'll ask question of my own. I need to learn more about sidesprang.
@sidesprang
What is your read on BigDad? Who would be his scum buddy if he was scum?
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On January 12 2014 04:22 TheChyz wrote:
@Balla
What is so scummy about it, your doing the exact same thing from everybody else and forcing them to explain things, what makes you such a special case that whenever you say something we should just let you pass cause your active? Jonny (i think) said that you are active both scum and town so I find no reason why you felt that posting that you will post your thoughts later and then now not wanting to is scummy from me. Seems like your being very defensive. And you don't have to post now, just before night ends (even if its 1 sec before)
Are you not paying attention? I'm confirmed vig AKA town, I shot derrida last night.
It's scummy because you're pushing me for information that will help scum determine their night actions. Simple as that.
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On January 12 2014 04:30 dnyarri wrote:
@Balla
Ok that certainly clarified. Your question. Currently I suspect BigDad most, but I'm not sure who would be second most suspicious. Since onlywonderboy turned out to be townie, I'm suspecting sidesprang again. sidesprang's filter has only one mention of BigDad. sidesprang said they would look into BigDad but hasn't said anything yet. I'm somewhat suspicious of Day_Walker, but Day_Walker doesn't seem very probable scum buddy for BigDad.
So quick analysis tells me that BigDad and sidesprang might be in scum team.
I'll look through some filters and give you more detailed answer and anwer the other question. Meanwhile, I'll ask question of my own. I need to learn more about sidesprang.
@sidesprang
What is your read on BigDad? Who would be his scum buddy if he was scum?
Day_Walker doesn't seem probable scum buddy with BigDad yes. But just because he's not BigDad's scum buddy does not mean he's not scum. This is why I asked it from both ways. Who would Day_Walker's partner be? Why?
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On January 12 2014 03:14 Balla24 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2014 07:06 TheChyz wrote:
Gotta go for a few hours, will be back afterwards. This vote kinda sucks but I think there is quite a wealth of information that can be garnered from it. What info can be garnered from it? Want your analysis before night ends!
Chyz you skipped this too.
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I didn't skip it, it will be done before the night ends. still got time.
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@Balla
As I said, I'm preparing to give more detailed anwers. Sorry for delay, but I'm quite slow at analyzing.
Here's my anwser to your second question.
- Can you reiterate why Day_Walker was NOT a better lynch than OWB?
OWB seemed more likely target to me after looking at his earlier games. OWB didn't seem to give much analysis while Day_Walker did. Even though I hadn't really mentioned it, I had suspected OWB earlier. Both of them seemed like good candidates and I can't really tell (yet) if either of them was much stronger candidate than other.
And in all honesty I have to say that my survival instinct had some, perhaps notable, influence too. I was going to die, and some people had already started to vote against OWB. I prefer not to die, especially if there's strong scum candidate.
Now I'll look for scum combos and answer your first question in both ways.
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- BigDad pushed for a Day_Walker lynch on D1. What do you make of this? Who is your backup scum pick for each team in the case that you think it makes them NOT a scumteam?
I think most potential buddy for Day_Walker (if BigDad wasn't scum) would be:
sidesprang
Even though sidesprang has multiple times made seemingly critical posts against Day_Walker, they all have conditions like these:
Only way that post makes sense if Day_Walker is mafia is if thedragoon is mafia.
When I read his filter I see a possibility for him being scum, however I think its way more likely for him to be scum if theDragoon is scum.
D2 sidesprang started to doubt Day_Walker's scumminess:
'm trying to read into Derrida's filter, and I think Day_Walker also comes out more town from it. I doubt a he would buddy up like he did in the first post if Day_Walker was scum. I think it would be more an attempt to pocket him than anything else.
Day_Walker did somewhat same thing towards sidesprang. D1 mildly suspicious, but D2:
Based on Derrida's post sidesprang looks like town to me, and will look even more town if dynarri flips scum.
This could all be genuine mistrust or it could be clever distancing scheme.
I looked through all other filters but chinstraps, theDragoon's, OWB's, yours and JonnyLaw's filter and I can't really think any other as potential buddy. suki hasn't been against Day_Walker much, but suki seems to have brought lot of analysis to the table and her suspicions on BigDad seem very sincere.
Overall I believe that BigDad is the most suspicious here. And analysis given above is based on assumption that BigDad isn't scum. I don't feel like BigDad's accusations against DW are too strong. Day_Walker was critized long before BigDad had said anything. BigDad's suspicions didn't seem to last for long either. BigDad unvoted long before the end of D1. So I believe that BigDad and Day_Walker COULD be scum buddies.i
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723¤tpage=30#582
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So the current three suspects are based on who vote switched from Dragoon to dnyarri. I'm still convinced that one of them is scum. All that leaves that are currently alive and not confirmed town are DW and Bigdad. But that is assuming dnyarri is town. I accepted dnyarri's defence for a while but I have kinda forgotten about him and now when analyzing players again much closer he seems very suspicious to me. So currently my target range is dnyarri, DW, and bigdad. I'm convinced that one of them is scum.
Now one of the most important things I went for searching next is the votes on the OWB lynch. The difference is that both dnyarri and DW both voted for OWB while bigdad stayed on dnyarri. What also is interesting is that in the votes DW first had his vote on dnyarri, but it seems that once OWB gained traction he switched over. Very suspicious. So I dove in deeper.
Starting off with dnyarri, he only has a filter of 1 page, which means that it better be damn good quality and if not then he is not helping town. His vote on me and then sudden switch when questioned about it is scummy thing #1 I could find. Next is that when I ask him 2 people he would lynch and 1 he would save, he gives me just 1 lynch (DW) and saves chinstrap. Saving chinstrap is an answer that involves no real thought being put into it. His only reason to lynch owb is that he is lurking and voted for dnyarri. That reason alone makes him mores scummy that DW? That's just wrong. Then he just suddenly goes that he thinks bigdad is also his top suspect. There's so much more things that are so scummy to me that I don't want to write an essay on it (and his filters short enough so just read it all yourself). All the inconsistency and no actual self thought going into things and just going for the bandwagon votes (dragoon, then owb) really makes think he is very likely to be scum.
As for bigdad he is the towniest of all 3. There are a few things that might seem scummy but overall I feel he has been contributing ok and that he is creating some useful conversation. Most importantly is that he sticks with dnyarri as his scum choice and doesn't join the owb bandwagon and adds more useful thought into his reasoning to lynch dnyarri.
And lastly, DW. To me he has always been in top 3 lynch positions each day but I just had reasons that I thought were better to lynch other people. Most closely I'm just trying to find his thought process from going to dnyarri vote on day 1, and then switching it to an owb vote later on. His reason for voting on dnyarri just started with lynching 1 of 3 lurkers that seemed the most scummy to him (a safe vote, since nobody likes lurkers and could be faked later as just putting pressure). Mostly he sticks to his 3 scum theory of asuna, dnyarri, derrida on night 1. After derrida's death, dnyarri is his number one and asuna is his number two (which seems acceptable logically), but then adds that he would NOT be happy with an asuna lynch (what?) because of his roleblock call. If your not happy with his lynch then why is he your number 2 scum makes no sense to me. THEN SUDDENLY he is convinced that he is tunnel visioning on dnyarri and that he agrees with our points about owb and switches his votes, the moment when people actually start creating some votes on owb. After that nothing of usefullness comes from DW and he has been fairly silent all night long.
Therefore I am at the conclusion that I think either dnyarri or DW are scum (although probably not together). Having had really bad reads on the last 2 lynches I don't feel confident enough to put one over the other at this moment in terms of who I would lynch first but these are two people I would go after on Day 3 (if I still am alive then).
The only small worry for me is that Balla thinks he is confirmed town. He is PROBABLE, but not confirmed. I think that if there are 2 night kills then Balla or Asuna have to be also looked at much, much, more closely. Also on a side note I'm just weary of Balla (if he is still alive in day 3) since if I was scum I would probably have killed him night 1 and if not then definitely night 2 since he is creating lots of conversation and making people respond to their previous posts (except he doesn't like it when people ask him instead, which is odd). Definitely not a higher priority for me than dnyarri and DW but just something to keep an eye on.
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Here are my reads in case I'm dead in a few minutes:
Dnyarri - Town: Was pushed by almost anybody. Once was threatened to be lynch started actually being really helpful, especially on n2. Just poke this guy a lot if you need him to be active and it looks like he will be.
Suki - Town: Some may disagree with this but I've been considering her confirmed town for her interactions with Derrida on N1. She was seriously gonna push him 100% genuine case on him. If there turns out to be an SK, you may want to reconsider.
TheChyz - Scummy: I was town reading him on day 1 and for the most part of day2... but his play recently is really questionable. This is one person where a Dnyarri pair with him kind of makes sense so look out for that. Seems unlikely but still a possibility IMO.
BigDad - Scummy: Doesn't defend himself against any accusations and just calls it wrong without even giving it a second thought. AFK all of the important time during day2 after leaving his vote on Dnyarri. Barely responds to anything. Could be just frustrated that we didn't lynch dnyarri twice in a row though.
sidesprang - Neutral/Scummy: Even though I had issue with his d2, I like how he responds to all my pressure. Seems relatively townie other than that. Only thing I have a problem with him is that he doesn't give his opinions on everybody, only his target and people. Be VERY weary of a day_walker/sidesprang team.
Day_walker- SCUMMY: Where is this guy?? Don't have much to say off the top of my head except he's scummy.
I think that's everybody. Hopefully I don't die and I can elaborate a bit on some things.
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Day 3
For once, the night was quiet in Petrograd. No gunfire was heard, and there were only a few screams or shouts.
Come morning, there was a commotion at the gate guard post. Curious people pushed through crowd to see what it was about, and saw the corpse of Balla24 lying in a pool of blood. There was a note on him:
'Stukach!'
Balla24 the Red Army Private (Town 1-Shot Vigilante) has died!
The day ends Monday, Jan 13 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ).
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GG, sorry for my poor performance. Feel really bad about this game tbh.
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Did anybody have anything happen to them this night?
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gg Balla, it was fun playing with you.
Sorry about being away for the night, I have a busy Saturday day and evening and I'm just popping in to let everyone know that the first thing I'm going to do when I wake up tomorrow is spend a good hour or two on mafia.
Heading out for now.
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I got roleblocked again, which funnily enough is pretty pointless. Is it possible that we don't have a cop? Since I've been roleblocked both nights the cop should've gotten two checks already, which after last night I would imagine one of the scummy reads would have been checked...
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Ok so at the moment we have a one-shot vigi and innocent child confirmed as well as a goon. Im assuming that there are no vigi's or masons (since they are very unlikely), and if there are please come on out. That means that out of the 7 power roles, 2 are gone. That means there are power roles left. If they all belong to scum that means their powerroles are only 1 goon, 1 GF, and 1 SK. That means there is NO ROLEBLOCKER. In which case Asuna is lying. I think that now is a good time to come out with a role if you have one. Because if there is no other town roles, ASUNA IS LYING and is either GF or SK. The cool part is that if I am correct nobody should fake claim since asuna will be alone (if either mafia or sk).
##Vote: Asuna
Role claim now. I am Vanilla Townie.
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On January 12 2014 13:17 TheChyz wrote:
Ok so at the moment we have a one-shot vigi and innocent child confirmed as well as a goon. Im assuming that there are no vigi's or masons (since they are very unlikely), and if there are please come on out. That means that out of the 7 power roles, 2 are gone. That means there are power roles left. If they all belong to scum that means their powerroles are only 1 goon, 1 GF, and 1 SK. That means there is NO ROLEBLOCKER. In which case Asuna is lying. I think that now is a good time to come out with a role if you have one. Because if there is no other town roles, ASUNA IS LYING and is either GF or SK. The cool part is that if I am correct nobody should fake claim since asuna will be alone (if either mafia or sk).
##Vote: Asuna
Role claim now. I am Vanilla Townie.
And why are so you sure mafia has no roleblocker?
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7 powerroles, 2 confirmed means 5 powerroles left. In the setup, 5 T's = 1 goon, 1 gf, 1 sk
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.inatoday.com/rus-rev2.jpg)
