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On February 28 2011 03:20 kevconsim wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 02:47 Barundar wrote:
Lynch Barundar, when he flips red it proves I'm green
Fine with me. I suggest we do this or lynch Icemac. We can move forward by 1) lynching Barundar 2) lynching LSB 3) lynching Icemac Those are the only viable ways of moving forward i can see. I suggest we lynch Barundar today and if he turns out to be town we lynch LSB If you think they are both town then we should lynch Icemac Anyways ##VOTE Barundar
All you have said in this post is that you think Barundar is red. Care to elaborate what in particular makes Barundar the most suspicious of the three?
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I wouldnt say he is the most suspicious i would just say that between him and LSB and Icemac
they are all suspicious.
Barundar, I was strongly suspecting you as being scum creating a "false" argument with LSB. A tit for tat that would sew enough doubt in everybody's mind to allow a 3rd candidate to get pushed to the lynch. But after your Homeric epic on LSB I feel that I must dismiss that idea. I don't believe Scum would go that far in a charade. Instead of believing you both to be scum I am fairly certain one of you surely is. However I am not 100% sure which.
However I will be after today's lynch. As I've said before this is a numbers game.
I am playing them now. Town still has a large numerical advantage. If LSB flips green you are surely scum and will be dealt with tomorrow.
Basically this is what i have been thinking as well. I would also add icemac to the group because of him repeatedly trying to redirect the vote to the inactives away from annul
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the quote was from Jackal58 February 27 2011 22:21.
sorry must have misclicked
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On February 28 2011 03:42 chaoser wrote:Think he's talk about you kev. Also, LSB, shame on you. Your whole defense has been lynch him first! he's mafia!
What's wrong with that? He's mafia. I seriously don't see why that's a problem, unless of course you want the town to lose.
I'm not! when he flips red you'll see how I'm green. You claim all he's doing is WIFOM but you're doing the same by linking to old games. We can't trust "play style" analysis 100% since smart players will obviously change it up. Or not change it up. That's WIFOM too.
So you agree with my response that his analysis is based on WIFOM.
Respond to his individual points please, until you do my vote will be on you. He was willing to write a fucking essay; if he was mafia trying that hard, and you're really town, you would try just as hard. So far you're not and so you scumminess is getting higher for me.
I'd like to quote this post
On February 27 2011 03:46 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2011 03:18 chaoser wrote:1. Barundar attempts to redirect the lynch off of annul Wouldn't mafia, if they were trying to redirect off annul, find it easier to pick gryf to stack on? He lied multiple times, changed from no to the PMs to yes to PMs but with his own list. I mean, that's a much easier case to be made than to do it on jackal right? It doesn't make sense to try to push jackal is a viable lynch candidate for mafia when the big juicy target of gryf is there. Imo jackal is an easier lynch candidate because his posts are borderline spam (but correct spam written with a gold pen), and gryf had mods telling people to lay off speculation on who his he. In addition, Bill Murray town play is exactly like how you described, a simple link to Haunted Mafia would have killed any serious bandwagon. Show nested quote +On February 27 2011 03:12 Barundar wrote:
To everyone else, I will post a full case on LSB later. He has several inconsistencies in his posts, showing that he
1) staged the annul lynch
2) tried to take more credit for a lynch than he deserved. I'm going to hold you accountable to this Show nested quote +For now I would just like to point out he doesn't actually even defend himself against my accusation. That was an accusation? This is what your points were. 1) Tried to find mafia from Annul's pre-written Goodbye post 2) Speculated that Rol must have ensured that foolishness and me are on different teams 3) Assume that Annul would let me bus him 4) Says that my scumdar was too good 5) Claim that not voting for Annul is a town tell. Do you seriously want me to respond to them?
I apologize if this post was responded to.
I seriously don't see why anyone thinks the "LSB is playing too well" reasoning means I'm mafia.
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Show nested quote +I'm not! when he flips red you'll see how I'm green. You claim all he's doing is WIFOM but you're doing the same by linking to old games. We can't trust "play style" analysis 100% since smart players will obviously change it up. Or not change it up. That's WIFOM too. So you agree with my response that his analysis is based on WIFOM.
Yes, I think some of it is WIFOM. But the fact that he wrote a 3 post essay + the fact that you won't even consider the idea that maybe he is town makes me wary of you.
Either way, the same can be said for you. If you get lynched, and you flip green, he will be suspect.
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Why does everyone ignore me...
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EBWOP: Your defense back at him have been weak, WIFOM, and frankly, lacking. Pretty much the same qualities that you are saying his post against you has in them.
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On February 28 2011 04:15 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +I'm not! when he flips red you'll see how I'm green. You claim all he's doing is WIFOM but you're doing the same by linking to old games. We can't trust "play style" analysis 100% since smart players will obviously change it up. Or not change it up. That's WIFOM too. So you agree with my response that his analysis is based on WIFOM. Yes, I think some of it is WIFOM. But the fact that he wrote a 3 post essay + the fact that you won't even consider the idea that maybe he is town makes me wary of you. Either way, the same can be said for you. If you get lynched, and you flip green, he will be suspect.
He's town because he wrote a lot?
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You wan't me to boil my conclusions down for you?
1) annul lynch was a bus. He offered little resistance and the majority of the votes was only barely beceause they thought he was mafia.
2) You try to take more credit for the lynch than what is due. Your need for medic protection on yourself alone is anti town.
3) Your posts so far lacks scumhunting, there is no "if"'s or "but"''s regarding allignment and consist of bad to no reasons. A pattern you have repeated since votes started stacking on you.
4) Your case on me is an OMGUS, that boils down to lynch me first for proof. There is no reasoning, only lynch, lynch lynch.
I wrote 3 extensive posts arguing for my case, so if you want clarification of those 4 points just read them. Bumatlarge had a nice point with the lists not saying anything of LSB's allignment that I didn't include.
@town: We got off well on day 1, so you can afford to lynch me and lynch LSB after I flip, or the other way around. Don't let this drag on for more days. My case on LSB has already stopped all other scumhunting, and I apologise for that, but I think I'm right, and LSB has not done anything to prove me wrong so far.
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Does anyone else see think the argument that either of these players have been posting more than the other is silly
Both of them have been posting a good amount and both have them have posted long essay like analysis's
Could someone explain how LSB or Barundar are doing more work than each other?
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On February 28 2011 02:15 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 02:09 LSB wrote:Barundar's contradiction (again)On February 27 2011 19:04 Barundar wrote:LSB doesn’t need convincing of Foolishness either: Everyone trusts certain people. For example, I'm trusting Foolishness because I don't believe that RoL would make him mafia given the state of TL town. This argument has no behaviour support at this point in the game. It’s an arbitrary reason for placing trust in someone, and it lacks that distrust of others that is indicative of town behaviour. So we can't speculate about role picks? Oh look what you did yourself On February 27 2011 01:43 Barundar wrote:
At the same time it’s clear from the night hits that we have at least 1 experienced analysist on the scum team. The only really experienced players in the game are LSB and Foolishness.
In fact, you did the exact same thing. You trusted Foolishness with Absolute no behavior support and accused me of being scum for doing the same Flawed/bad argument. You claimed host wouldn't pick Foolishness as mafia. He claimed there was an experienced player due to the play, and that you and Foolishness were the 2 most experienced. Theres a big difference.
There is a difference, and it's not what you say.
They arguments are similar as both of them
1) Make assumptions on RoL's picks
2) Assume that Foolishness is mafia
There is a few differences.
My support of foolishness is weak, I recongnize that the argument shouldn't go far
Barundar uses this assumption as central of FOS of me. His argument is that between LSB and Foolishness, foolishness is probably town so LSB must be mafia.
In addition another difference is that I'm not accusing Barundar of being scum because of this argument. The difference is I'm pointing out that Barundar made the exact same argument and it is hypocritical of him to try to accuse me of being scum for using my argument.
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On February 28 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:
Why does everyone ignore me...
Happy now? :D
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On February 28 2011 04:23 Barundar wrote:
1) annul lynch was a bus. He offered little resistance and the majority of the votes was only barely beceause they thought he was mafia.
Of course annul's lynch was a bus at the end. I even agree to that.
The reason why it was a bus was because I shot down all alternatives, and so the mafia couldn't bus anyone.
You are making the flawed assumption that I was just another mafia on the bus. You are trying to figure out my actions based off what others were doing. That's a flawed form of reasoning.
In addition, seriously, LSB bussing Annul? That sounds dumb. Think of it again. If it was DocH bussing LSB that sounds reasonable, but LSB bussing Annul is impossible.
2) You try to take more credit for the lynch than what is due. Your need for medic protection on yourself alone is anti town.
Considering I've been shot night one of every single game where I didn't yell out for medic protection, me yelling for medic protection is perfectly reasonable
3) Your posts so far lacks scumhunting, there is no "if"'s or "but"''s regarding allignment and consist of bad to no reasons. A pattern you have repeated since votes started stacking on you.
What do you mean? I posted lots of good analysis. Do I seriously need to link them for you?
I'm sure your mafia. Why is to scummy to be sure that your mafia? Are you saying that stating my beliefs is a bad thing?
4) Your case on me is an OMGUS, that boils down to lynch me first for proof. There is no reasoning, only lynch, lynch lynch.
My case on you is based on your forced analysis which is evident through your contradictions and flawed reasoning.
Boom
I wrote 3 extensive posts arguing for my case, so if you want clarification of those 4 points just read them. Bumatlarge had a nice point with the lists not saying anything of LSB's allignment that I didn't include.
I've had more than 5 extensive post arguing my case and other things
So if you want to make this a bottle collected game of "see who has lots of good posts", I win.
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On February 28 2011 04:21 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 04:15 chaoser wrote:I'm not! when he flips red you'll see how I'm green. You claim all he's doing is WIFOM but you're doing the same by linking to old games. We can't trust "play style" analysis 100% since smart players will obviously change it up. Or not change it up. That's WIFOM too. So you agree with my response that his analysis is based on WIFOM. Yes, I think some of it is WIFOM. But the fact that he wrote a 3 post essay + the fact that you won't even consider the idea that maybe he is town makes me wary of you. Either way, the same can be said for you. If you get lynched, and you flip green, he will be suspect. He's town because he wrote a lot?
No, i think he's MORE town than you because after his essay your responses have been lacking. My vote right after his case against you was:
1) me thinking jesus...no way mafia did this (illogical yes, but still, i'm sure the idea that "this isn't mafia-like" crossed many people's minds.)
2) to pressure you to see how you would respond. You didn't respond well.
To be truthful, the idea that both of you were green crossed my mind many times but after your recent responses...I dunno...
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On February 28 2011 04:33 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 04:21 LSB wrote:On February 28 2011 04:15 chaoser wrote:I'm not! when he flips red you'll see how I'm green. You claim all he's doing is WIFOM but you're doing the same by linking to old games. We can't trust "play style" analysis 100% since smart players will obviously change it up. Or not change it up. That's WIFOM too. So you agree with my response that his analysis is based on WIFOM. Yes, I think some of it is WIFOM. But the fact that he wrote a 3 post essay + the fact that you won't even consider the idea that maybe he is town makes me wary of you. Either way, the same can be said for you. If you get lynched, and you flip green, he will be suspect. He's town because he wrote a lot? No, i think he's MORE town than you because after his essay your responses have been lacking. My vote right after his case against you was: 1) me thinking jesus...no way mafia did this (illogical yes, but still, i'm sure the idea that "this isn't mafia-like" crossed many people's minds.) 2) to pressure you to see how you would respond. You didn't respond well. To be truthful, the idea that both of you were green crossed my mind many times but after your recent responses...I dunno...
Seriously, I'm really not liking what you are trying to pass as arguments.
First you claim that Mafia work a lot less than town, and that Barundar posted a bunch of long posts makes him green.
This is a silly argument that doesn't merit my response.
Secondly, you claim that I'm not responding to Barundar well, without actually answering any of my responses. In case you haven't noticed, I still have not seen a critisim of my responses from you. You are making a case out of nothing.
Thirdly you take a whishy washy position that looks good regardless of who gets lynched.
This isn't a direct FOS, but I don't believe your intentions are so pure.
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I have spent some time trying to organize my thoughts and here is some of what I have thought on. First off two players stand out more than others to me.
Icanflylow(now bumatlarge) and LSB. I know LSB has been analyzed by barundar. There is however one post that strikes me as particularly useless made by LSB that should be used as a reason for an obvious lynch.
On February 27 2011 04:26 LSB wrote:
There are three goals for night kills
1) Take out good players
2) Take out blues
3) Take out active players.
Generally TL mafia shoots down all active players until the town kills itself with inactivity.
Now, we can devide the people into 4 groups
Btw, I define bus as mafia started lynch.
Priority 1: Automatic night 1 snipes if possible
These players are proven scumhunters
LSB
Foolishness
Priority 2: Active vets
These player have quiet a few games under their belt and are pretty active
Barundar
CubEdIn
darmousseh
GMarshal
Beneather
seRapH
kitaman27
Mr. Wiggles
chaoser
LunarDestiny
deconduo
why
Priority 3: Kill if you think they are blue
These players are generally inactive, or easily to bus
Coagulation
Jackal58
Kenpachi
annul
gryffindor
ohN
Uncatagorized: Newish people, sort them into the three groups as they start playing
icemac
OriginalName
JBright
astroorion
Gofarman
MaxwellE
Conversion
kevconsim
ICanFlyLow
Ser Aspi
LastArgument
Please note, this isn't really indicative of skill. Someone like Jackal58 who is good at finding scum is increadibly easy to bus. On the other hand, people like DocH and Pandain (they aren't playing) are active, but aren't really good at finding scum.
And this is all subjective some names I don't recognize, and I made it off of what I remember. Especially Priority 1
This post ranks players in three catagories.
1 being the “top players”
2 being ones who have experience or shown to have it
3 being people who have less experience than 2
4 being new players.
However, if you start reading the post more carefully, you will realize it’s a post indicating how the mafia “should” hit people to avoid off the radar. Now, a mafia reading this post now knows how to properly divide hits to maximize the team from dying. It doesn’t directly say how we should be saving those people, or how to analyze them. (note: he makes a short post on “how to use this list” right after but essentially says its useless till day 4-5).
This list didn’t provide people who should be dt checked, it didn’t provide a list of who should be medic protected. It instead provided a long post that doesn’t help the town as much as it helps mafia. Why make a post as town that shows activity but barely helps the town at all? This could be a lack of experience on my part, but it surprises me this post was made without further detailing or breaking down of how the town can use the information aside from “bide and wait till people die to pin the reds”
Bumatlarge
On February 27 2011 10:29 bumatlarge wrote:
Well I read into the whole annul thing, and it doesn't seem to be an organized bus. Especially with that little squirming performance, but then dropping it quickly in a manner I'd expect from him as scum. I didn't find much to point out on who was leading the accusations, but it does give me a nice ladelful of confidence for the town. Deconduo is not scum I feel, and mostly everyone behind it is likely not. GMarshal is a bit tricky because he seems a little too apologetic, but I've only played with him as town, and he would tend to get apologetic when he isn't inquisitive. Maybe he's just more confident?
Anyway, I think annul is probably the better catches for town to get early. I think town would be better served in pressuring the more reserved since that roster seems fairly slim in this game. I like icemac as a lynch target, and others like him that don't quite cut the bill. They are much easier to tell apart then good townie players that keep their mouths in check but speak when it is right, such as ohn.
LSB is silly.
This is his second post in the game, he clears one player of suspicion, FoS two players, one of which is responsible for the most pro town idea this game. It isn’t much to go on, but based on all the pages the thread has, the only thing he was able to comment on was the annul lynch? And do generalization FoS on players without anything solid?
Seems off to me.
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Hi again peoples.
Here's a crappy cell-phone pic of yesterday!
+ Show Spoiler +I GOT TO SEE SNOW! ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/BSyWf.jpg)
Now, to the issues at hand.
Obviously, the most pressing issue is LSB vs Barundar.
LSB:
Mostly, the most trouble I have with this is that, if Barundar is right, we have to kill someone who really pushed a red on day 1. That's all.
We shouldn't really do this. Here is why:
- If LSB is town, and he's as good as people say he is, then he will be targeted by mafia, sooner or later.
- If LSB is red, he already outed a team-mate. If mafia is as ballsy as Barundar says, then they might do something equally strange in order to clear LSB. In which case, it spells good for town.
So I have no idea why so many people are going along with this.
At least give LSB one-two more days and see how the game goes. You can't possibly want one of the more experienced players to die, after pushing a red, based entirely on "he could have played this exactly the same if he was red". True, but that's not a convincing argument. Not for me anyway.
There are just two things that make me not dismiss this completely:
1. Harry Potter Mafia, when LSB seemed very, very pro-town in the thread, and he was scum. It can be said that he was Snape so he might have known he was ultimately town-aligned, but at the time he was in our scum team, yet he played very pro-town in the thread (or at least make it seem that way). This could be a more advanced version of that.
2. The "once he flips red" made it seem extremely confident. Which is a bit weird since it was day one. I don't think it's healthy for anyone to be that confident in day 1.
Barundar:
I don't know if Barundar is red or town, but I honestly don't think it is something that mafia would do.
Let's think for a second here, take what Barundar said:
The thing is, when someone plays as mafia, it’s hard to do analysis because you know that the person who you are doing analysis is town, so you have to make up stuff.
It's kinda hard to make up so much stuff just to try and sink LSB, and even if you do (say, Barundar is red and LSB is town), then it doesn't make any sense because Barundar would die next night for sure, so it would basically be two mafia down just to kill LSB.
So if he is red (and they want LSB dead), it's just a really bad move, because once LSB flips town, he's dead.
If he's town, it's an even worse move, because if LSB is town, then Barundar will most likely get lynched as well, and you will have wasted two lynches, and two of the better players and get absolutely nowhere.
So here's what I'm saying:
1. Think really well about who to vote for.
2. FoS on those who voted on LSB with saying "oh wow that was a good analysis" but didn't really bother to THINK about it and the other possiblities and the outcomes. I'm sure there's at least a few mafia among them who were oh-so-glad an experienced townie is being targeted.
Here are a few examples:
On February 28 2011 00:23 chaoser wrote:
Epic post dude....I'mma put my vote on him cause there's no fucking way mafia would spend that much time crafting a post like that spanning 3 parts...
Vote: LSB
Yeah, that's a good freaking reason. Why would you bother thinking for yourself when someone posted a 3-part-post? No mafia writes that much!
On February 28 2011 00:51 OriginalName wrote:
I don't think mafia is beyond bussing d1 at all and I'm not prepared to let them succed for it HOWEVER we have to realize that if we get this wrong we are clearly on the wrong track and.
Mafia probably just got some lucky snipes
Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players
If anything I think the bus was instigated by the random vote on annul about mid way through d1
I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plaisable
Therefore
##Vote LSB
This seems scummiest to me:
"mafia probably just got some lucky snipes" - something of a 'reverse-gloating', being happy with the kills but trying to look very pro-town by saying almost nothing.
"Probably has one experience player and a load of non-experienced players" - umm, yeah, we can tell that based on... ummm.... ?! slip?!
"I like risks however so I think the Bus is definitly plausible" - i like the risk of killing one of the best town players on the 50-50% he's red.
(I'm saying 50-50 because he said it's "plausible", not likely or anything else)
Of course, my whole theory tumbles if LSB is indeed red. But we are basing this solely on the idea that the mafia team pushed Annul to a lynch on day one, which is a massively ballsy thing to do.
I'm not saying LSB is town, but at least give it more time to develop, just don't claim to him or whatever if you don't trust him.
As for Jackal, I didn't think he was scum, and I wanted to post a few bits based on Mafia 36 that made me think it was unlikely that he is red, but then he gave up on Gryph and voted LSB based on the fact that it's either him or Barundar, again, being certain that one of them is red, which no player should do so early in the game.
That's about enough for now, as I still want to look over the posts and see if I can find someone worthy of my vote.
But unless something really scummy pops up, it's definitely not gonna be LSB or Barundar. Not this time band-wagon-man!
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Damn it. I forgot to resize the photo. I forgot about the photo-in-spoiler-bug.
+ Show Spoiler +
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On February 28 2011 04:38 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2011 04:33 chaoser wrote:On February 28 2011 04:21 LSB wrote:On February 28 2011 04:15 chaoser wrote:I'm not! when he flips red you'll see how I'm green. You claim all he's doing is WIFOM but you're doing the same by linking to old games. We can't trust "play style" analysis 100% since smart players will obviously change it up. Or not change it up. That's WIFOM too. So you agree with my response that his analysis is based on WIFOM. Yes, I think some of it is WIFOM. But the fact that he wrote a 3 post essay + the fact that you won't even consider the idea that maybe he is town makes me wary of you. Either way, the same can be said for you. If you get lynched, and you flip green, he will be suspect. He's town because he wrote a lot? No, i think he's MORE town than you because after his essay your responses have been lacking. My vote right after his case against you was: 1) me thinking jesus...no way mafia did this (illogical yes, but still, i'm sure the idea that "this isn't mafia-like" crossed many people's minds.) 2) to pressure you to see how you would respond. You didn't respond well. To be truthful, the idea that both of you were green crossed my mind many times but after your recent responses...I dunno... Seriously, I'm really not liking what you are trying to pass as arguments. First you claim that Mafia work a lot less than town, and that Barundar posted a bunch of long posts makes him green. This is a silly argument that doesn't merit my response. Secondly, you claim that I'm not responding to Barundar well, without actually answering any of my responses. In case you haven't noticed, I still have not seen a critisim of my responses from you. You are making a case out of nothing. Thirdly you take a whishy washy position that looks good regardless of who gets lynched. This isn't a direct FOS, but I don't believe your intentions are so pure.
I agree it's a silly argument (even said it was "illogical" in my post). But it's also a natural one, at least for me. I've never seen mafia make the kind of intense posts that he did. I don't think it's a scum thing to do. I never said work harder, I'm saying mafia doesn't need to do that kind of posting. To me it seems more like town trying realllyyy hard to figure something out. Think about it from an outside perspective and not from your perspective.
On February 28 2011 02:04 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2011 19:04 Barundar wrote:
Part 2: LSB’s bad logic and scumslips
Hey guys, lets just use our lynch on Barundar, once he flips red, I'll be cleared. Ezpz. In addition, this is the same problem with Barundar's push against Jackal58, + Show Spoiler +Oops, 'scumslip' I said Barundar was read
On February 28 2011 02:10 LSB wrote:Go lynch Barundar and once he flips red that will be my defense.
Those three responses are what made me suspicious. You say his case against you is WIFOM and then you use a WIFOM argument to argue back. Then you just say vote him guys, when he flips red, i'll be proven green.
To me your case against his case against you is
1) His case is a lot of fluff that's WIFOM
2) One of the reasons he thinks I'm mafia is cause he doesn't think Foolishness is
3) He will flip red and I will be exonerated
Is that correct?
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/DuLrr.jpg)
