EPTYou are missing the fact that not only a mafia could use the list that LSB posted to get town to lynch certain people, like if they kill all but one players in tier 2, he would stick out as a sore thumb and town will most likely turn on him unless he's somehow cleared during the game.
TL Mafia XXXVII - Page 51
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
You are missing the fact that not only a mafia could use the list that LSB posted to get town to lynch certain people, like if they kill all but one players in tier 2, he would stick out as a sore thumb and town will most likely turn on him unless he's somehow cleared during the game. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
As I see it right now this is a case of two townies tunneling on each other, so why don't we go after the player who seems to be trying to slip under the radar? Hi icemac, some people made arguments against you! Care to reply to them? ##Unvote ##vote icemac | ||
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RLTY
United States965 Posts
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RLTY
United States965 Posts
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RLTY
United States965 Posts
On February 28 2011 04:59 GMarshal wrote: Ok, at this point I dont believe either Barundar or LSB are town, Barundar because of his analysis and convictions, LSB because he seems to be playing pro-town, knowing LSB's general scum style however its not impossible for him to be scum but if he is he is almost guaranteed to push a scummy plan or lynch sooner rather than later, why take a huge gamble on lynching a great player who seems pro-town when he is likely to screw up as scum and get lynched later? As I see it right now this is a case of two townies tunneling on each other, so why don't we go after the player who seems to be trying to slip under the radar? Hi icemac, some people made arguments against you! Care to reply to them? ##Unvote ##vote icemac All the arguments I see against me are "either X is .... or X is ..., if ... then ..." Either that or he made a "slip-up" which frankly I don't see this slip-up. Could you give me a real argument against me? | ||
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LastArgument
United States152 Posts
On February 28 2011 04:53 CubEdIn wrote: @ LastArgument: You are missing the fact that not only a mafia could use the list that LSB posted to get town to lynch certain people, like if they kill all but one players in tier 2, he would stick out as a sore thumb and town will most likely turn on him unless he's somehow cleared during the game. But that pay off is later in the game. Read the way its outlined on who to shoot, etc... It doesn't offer much advice to town as of right now to use it. Like adding people to a medic list, or who should be taking detective/cop checks. Possible bomb targets, etc... Rather than using it in such a way to add pressure to players, he instead left it as it was, an outline more useful to mafia then it is to the town. | ||
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RLTY
United States965 Posts
On February 27 2011 14:19 Coagulation wrote: Anybody see the scum slip? "if im town" .. ... Unless you're refering to this. How is that slip-up lol? Everyone in the game says they're town. Who doesn't? | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
On February 28 2011 04:59 GMarshal wrote: Ok, at this point I dont believe either Barundar or LSB are town, Barundar because of his analysis and convictions, LSB because he seems to be playing pro-town, knowing LSB's general scum style however its not impossible for him to be scum but if he is he is almost guaranteed to push a scummy plan or lynch sooner rather than later, why take a huge gamble on lynching a great player who seems pro-town when he is likely to screw up as scum and get lynched later? ##unvote Hmm...I need some more time to think... | ||
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why
United States215 Posts
On February 27 2011 19:04 Barundar wrote: Part 2: LSB’s bad logic and scumslips First of all, it’s difficult to pinpoint that exact moment in time, or post by annul, that convinces LSB that annul is mafia. In his first post: He is keeping annul’s play style in mind, so he is suspicious of him. In the next post LSB sound like he has already sorted annul as a lynch! Nothing happened between this post and the previous that should have raised his suspicion. But now it sounds like the lynch is already planned. While discussing with annul this post comes up. He is bad for town, but not necessarily mafia. His reason for voting. Doesn’t say annul is mafia. Note what a shit reason is, when was the last time you heard of someone who got persuaded to be modkilled? When LunarDestiny offered to get modkilled in mafia xxxvi, several mafia veterans felt the need to shout foul play in thread. Still isn’t mafia. Woops! Now not only is annul now mafia, he is also flipping red. Between the last posts annul hasn’t posted, there has been no new evidence. There is no smoking gun. Yet now annul is suddenly red. What’s even more interesting is this isn’t even brought up while talking about annul, it slips out when he is trying to connect others to annul. Now most people who has played mafia a few times will agree that there is no such thing as a proof of alignment, without either mod interference (like bumatlarge in mafia xxxvi) or stuff like DT checks after Godfather is dead. Even then a miller can mislead. In the end, the only sure thing is just a convincing analysis. For town there is always the possibility of being wrong. This result in a sliding indicator of suspicion against a player, that can get stronger or weaker depending on actions and arguments. Thus a vote for a townie is more a case of suspicion vs suspicion, where the guy with the highest amount of suspicion from the majority of the player gets voted off. LSB doesn’t go through a process of higher or lower suspicion. There is an obvious inconsistency between lynching annul for being obstructive to the town, to suddenly know he is red. This is not the only time LSB foregoes the suspicion state. For a lynch on Jackal, LSB demands “proof”: LSB is experienced enough to know there is no such thing as certainty, especially not on day 1. He dismisses the arguments I brought forward regarding Jackal, and while my arguments might be wrong, they should still raise suspicion. You can argue against the argument’s and disagree with the conclusions, but you can never get proof, since only mafia knows who’s red and who’s town. LSB, this is the most convincing part of Barundar's analysis to me. Basically, it says that you went from suspicion to knowledge of annul very quickly and without usual intermediate steps. It makes sense for this to have happened as mafia (as you could have decided to bus him at this point) but it makes less sense as town (because you need to have become more suspicious over time). What convinced you that annul was mafia and not just a good lynch because of his playstyle? The fact that you haven't really answered this question is I think what makes your defense unsatisfactory so far. | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
##vote Barundar | ||
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Kenpachi
United States9908 Posts
On February 28 2011 05:14 Kenpachi wrote: My god, this is fucking hard cause im torn between Barundar and LSB. LSB did take out a Mafia and Barundar attempted to lead town the wrong way. Which is a more possible idea? a bus or what barundar did ##vote Barundar EBWOQ what do you call what Barundar did :S | ||
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why
United States215 Posts
On February 28 2011 05:05 icemac wrote: ... Unless you're refering to this. How is that slip-up lol? Everyone in the game says they're town. Who doesn't? The arguments against you are: 1) Mafia didn't jump on you as an alternative to annul even though you had some votes on you. I realize its pretty hard for you to respond to this one. 2) You only addressed the annul issue yesterday to defend him. 3) You posted enough to avoid the inactive label and yet have contributed very little of value to town. Also, what made you post: On February 25 2011 12:30 icemac wrote: lada lada lada trollololol i guess i don't look so hot either According to you this isn't true...what did you think made you look bad? | ||
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kevconsim
United States317 Posts
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RLTY
United States965 Posts
On February 28 2011 05:34 why wrote: The arguments against you are: 1) Mafia didn't jump on you as an alternative to annul even though you had some votes on you. I realize its pretty hard for you to respond to this one. 2) You only addressed the annul issue yesterday to defend him. 3) You posted enough to avoid the inactive label and yet have contributed very little of value to town. Also, what made you post: According to you this isn't true...what did you think made you look bad? I was convinced annul was not mafia. Stood up for him. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
ok I'm only going to take the relevant posts as people seem to dislike my posts where I look at every post (as usual my commentary in bold) + Show Spoiler + Seems like shit's hitting the wall pretty hard without any real leads so far. Since its too early, why not just get a semi-active who is probably smart enough to keep their heads in the game but not smart enough to post big as a mafia. I guess this is ironic coming from me seeing as how I've just got up to date & posting. this is an interesting point considering the fact that the people in suspicion at the time were me, gryff, annul and chaoser, if icemac flips red then we should scrutinize chaoser and gryffindor (and me actually) I'm not really sure of what to make of this post one way or another, seems just like a general town post + Show Spoiler + Also, I just want to say that these cell things is either big balls move by mafia or the workings of bad play. here is a post I take issue with, not because it goes against my plan, but because it provides no reasons for it, it just labels it as bad play. I have no problem with discussion, its when there is no reasoning behind it that I start to suspect people. Also its rather aggressive play for a player who just got here (not that that's a bad thing), but it is mimicking annul's "arguments" + Show Spoiler + Analysis doesn't mean shit Day 1. I don't see why you feel so compelled to pull stuff out of your ass and call it high level analysis. and here is a damning post, anyone who argues against analysis gets an automatic scum point in my book, and the rebuff saying it was pulled out of my ass in no way actually addresses any issues he may have with the analysis itself, +2 scum points + Show Spoiler + (~snip, gryffs mention of a possible link between me and annul) I doubt mafia is this stupid. Thats an interesting post actually, notice how this isn't constructive at all? I'm seeing a pattern here of not actually contributing and just dismissing things in general, now I know I'm town but if I were scum it could easily be a slip on annuls part, never dismiss a possible scum slip +1 scum point + Show Spoiler + I'm proposing we kill 0 of annul, GMarshal, gryffindor, chaoser and play it by ear afterwards. you were asked to clarify if you meant 1, if you did then this is a null contribution, as that was where the town was tending anyway and you failed to provide any reason why any of us was a compelling choice at all, +1 contentless posting! + Show Spoiler + (~snip me calling him out on the above posts) Alright, let's just say you are being productive, what conclusions are you actually arriving at? its a good question but he fails to substantiate his arguments, I think I call him out on dodging my questions later + Show Spoiler + (~snip, list of inactives by kita) Where are these people? thats not a contribution, at least put a vote on them to pressure them ,+1 meaningless posting + Show Spoiler + (~snip why's arguments against icemac) So by responding to posts, I'm up for lynch? I've said a lot: the current way we're analyzing data isn't optimal. I don't think we should be you using scant data on Day 1 such as you, yourself, are doing. The reason I'm not listing any names other than the inactives is because I have no reasoning against anyone. I don't think I'm forcing myself at all; instead, I'm making meaningful posts on how town should act on Day 1 which is lynching inactives and semi-actives trying to stay in the covers. Ok, so lets see that actual substance of your defense, basicly it is "I dont like analysis day 1" and "I dunno who to vote for" and you make a pretty basic mistake, you say town should go for lurkers day 1, which is a mistake, town should pressure lurkers day 1 and only lynch them if there is no better alternative, becuase it is easy for mafia to move votes onto a town inactive, rather than a scum lurker, still an easy mistake to make + Show Spoiler + (~snip do not claim message) seriously not a real contribution, but people have been doing this all game long (reinforcing the don't claim message) + Show Spoiler + What I mean is that we shouldn't lynch any actives because they're at least contributing. We'll be able to see their alignment or slipups in the future via posts/ pms/ hit patterns/ lynch patterns/ etc. If it's really that important, then I say ICanFlyLow for not talking at all. First person in the list I found that wasn't talking at all. ##Vote: ICanFlyLow so after deciding that my plan is scummy and 1 of gryffindor annul GMarshal or chaoser should be lynched you switch to an inactive? I already explained why voting for inactives to make them post is good, but after agroing on me so hard this seems like an abrupt change + Show Spoiler + (~snip ON making a FoS on him) How the heck am I red? Just because I'm smart enough to take a bipartisan approach to day 1 and not listen to over analysis and red-analysis doesn't mean I'm scum playing the middle of the road. Right now I'm pretty convinced you're either a baddie or straight up mafia. this is an OMGUS attack without the actual vote, since ON accused him he must be scum, this is bad play from icemac + Show Spoiler + Also, I'm not jumping into this Jackal58 bandwagon because I'm not bad. Lynch me if you will. this actualy merits a townie point, refusing to jump on an easy bandwagon to take votes and suspicion off himself + Show Spoiler + (~snip, Ser Aspi posts an accusation at wiggles) I like. Also, I hate how me and annul are cast with 100% of the blame for just being active holy shit. I think Ser Aspi is got something here. Trying to jump on an easy bandwagon or just easily persuaded? hard to tell, also you weren't taking the blame for being active, but rather for being aggressive without arguments. + Show Spoiler + What do you mean by a huge dive. I changed my vote from an afk-player who just stopped going afk to some major bandwagon scum. Playing it by ear. so you admit that you are essentially sheeping, that is terrible town play (see minimafia VII for an example of why), if you had at least said it was for reason 1,2 and 3 then it would have been but that just points to either bad play or something more sinister +.5 scum points + Show Spoiler + Fair analysis. I just want to ask about the lynches. Haven't played with TL before How significant are Darmousseh, Kitaman27, Mr. Wiggles as players? Are the known for being good players, etc. ? Also, is there any of their caliber that "should be dead" but isn't? I'm okay with ##Vote Barundar for now. stop sheeping , or if you are going to at least point out which points swayed you the most , ok LSB posted a good analysis but think critically about it, I will admit you weren't the only one swayed by it, so I'll give you a pass on that one. Also good questions, I'm glad you are thinking/asking them + Show Spoiler + Oh boy, if ohn is mafia and i'm town, i'm going to quote the hell out of this afterwards. it could be a slip, but we all make mistakes, Im willing to give him a pass Verdict: despite some mistakes and somewhat new play I don't think he is scum (last person I said that about was annul, so take it with a grain of salt), so for now I'm going to put him under sheeping town really though you need to start providing reasons for your posts. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
##unvote ##vote astroorion | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
On February 28 2011 04:52 chaoser wrote: To me your case against his case against you is 1) His case is a lot of fluff that's WIFOM 2) One of the reasons he thinks I'm mafia is cause he doesn't think Foolishness is 3) He will flip red and I will be exonerated Is that correct? In correct. You take a few spammish posts and assume that that is my case. Say what? Try quoting these posts http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888¤tpage=50#993 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=191888¤tpage=50#991 | ||
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LSB
United States5171 Posts
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RLTY
United States965 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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