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BC's Arkham Asylum - Page 45

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Eternalmisfit
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States643 Posts
July 19 2011 21:37 GMT
#881
I am going to swap my vote to VE since Day1 lynch is usually a crap-shoot and leaving a confirmed black alive makes no sense. Also, leaving a confirmed scum to vigi's is not a good idea since for all we know our vigi's might be bad enough to shoot wrong people.

Node seems to be heading the modkill way since he has made no posts. Zona also seems to heading the same way with only two posts till now. Is anyone in contact with Zona? I am getting a feeling that he did not read the OP and the 5 post requirement.
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
July 19 2011 21:38 GMT
#882
EBWODP: Guess I'm just greedy that way.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
July 19 2011 21:44 GMT
#883
On July 20 2011 06:37 Kavdragon wrote:
So that we can be clear, you guys are saying "Day one lynch is the hardest to get right, so use the free pass now, not later when we will have an easier time lynching him"



No, I'm saying lynching VE is bad because of how easy it is to lynch him. Scum doesn't really lose anything from lynching him, Town obviously wants to lynch him, we get no behavior analysis from the voting patterns.

Vig shooting him is good though. Vig shooting day 1 is when it's weakest since you have the highest chance of hitting Town instead of scum. Well this way you have a Vig shot that can kill a 99% confirmed scum.

Who knows, maybe all the Vigs are compulsive (we're all raving lunatics in here aren't we?) and we're saving them from having to random shoot a Townie.

Town lynches are more valuable than Vig shots, especially on day 1. Lynches and pressure give more information in the form of voting patterns and defense analysis.
wat
Zona
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
40426 Posts
July 19 2011 21:46 GMT
#884
On July 20 2011 04:30 ketomai wrote:
Look how much has happened in day 1, day 2 will bring just as many if not more information, diluting the day 1 info.

...

Time is on the mafia's side.

I'm surprised nobody's called this out - worrying that more information will bring about "dilution" and the idea that time benefits mafia. You even bolded the idea that time worked against town!!

In almost every case (there's always rare particular instances and game setups which prove to be the exception), time benefits town. There's longer patterns to analyze, there's more voting records to examine, there's more statements and arguments that can be dissected, and in this game, there's more clues available as well.

The way town affects the pace of the game is by how freely the vigilantes shoot. I've already advocated my position on this before (be conservative in the early game, except to carry out policy lynches), but suppose that vigilantes shot freely every night, and among their shots, a number of townies are killed. This could bring us to lylo earlier, and into a situation where we have less information. I'm very leery that you advocated this idea.

(In this particular game, time also benefits Ra'as and Batman, giving them more information and chances to hit their respective targets. Mafia and Joker are the two parties that don't benefit from time.)
"If you try responding to those absurd posts every day, you become more damaged. So I pay no attention to them at all." Jung Myung Hoon (aka Fantasy), as translated by Kimoleon
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
July 19 2011 21:50 GMT
#885
On July 18 2011 11:41 Curu wrote:

Likewise, if someone is declared a policy lynch or something of that nature, it is far better to have our Vigilantes shoot them instead. The lynch process gives us no information when reds can easily bandwagon lynch someone. Remember that the lynch is a process for finding information and connections as well, not just a simple kill.


I posted this on day 1 and people seemed to agree/no one had a problem with it. So why are we suddenly thinking our Vigs are too herpderp dumb to carry out these routine kills?
wat
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
July 19 2011 21:50 GMT
#886
You guys are ridiculous if you think anyone is confirmed in any way at this point.

Besides that, I'm still trying to help town. Notice how none of the other lynch candidates...oh wait...there's only one....and he also doesn't think I'm the best lynch. Perhaps that's just a coincidence. Perhaps not.

I hope you guys are voting with your head and not just voting for the easy lynch.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
July 19 2011 21:50 GMT
#887
EBWOP: It's still day 1 derp, I mean I posted that at the beginning of the game.
wat
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
July 19 2011 21:51 GMT
#888
On July 20 2011 03:14 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
LOL, I'm so good I don't even need to scum hunt:

Show nested quote +
+ Show Spoiler +
[11:16] <VisceraEyes> Okay, so Joker or Ras? Inquiring minds want to know.
[11:17] <MrWiggles> Hmmm?
[11:17] <MrWiggles> Neither
[11:17] <MrWiggles> I just think about the set-up
[11:17] <VisceraEyes> Yes, I get that...but you also lurk bad.
[11:17] <VisceraEyes> 2 + 2 often equals 4.
[11:17] <MrWiggles> nah, I'm just not around when I don't post
[11:17] <VisceraEyes> Yeah, I feel that.
[11:18] <MrWiggles> Also, my posts are usually longer, not just one or two line
[11:18] <VisceraEyes> Part of why I favor a RoL lynch over you.
[11:20] <VisceraEyes> I get that your posts have SETUP content...but the case against you is very compelling. You literally haven't taken a stance on anyone.
[11:20] <MrWiggles> I have, just not in thread
[11:20] <VisceraEyes> And you don't strike me as the type to be 'afraid' to take a stand against anyone, scum OR Town.
[11:20] <VisceraEyes> Ah I see...so you're playing with people who are WORTH playing with.
[11:20] <VisceraEyes> Got it.
[11:21] <VisceraEyes> I'll leave you alone then.
[11:21] <MrWiggles> hmmm?
[11:21] <VisceraEyes>
[11:21] <MrWiggles> lol
[11:21] <MrWiggles> just discussing things
[11:21] <MrWiggles> it's day 1, most of the analysis is incorrect
[11:21] <VisceraEyes> So what kind of stances have you taken out of thread?
[11:21] <VisceraEyes> BTW, stances taken out of thread are not stances at all
[11:21] <VisceraEyes> Stances are for everyone to see
[11:21] <MrWiggles> RoL is suspicous, I don't like RedFF, Palmar is probs third party
[11:21] <MrWiggles> It's funny
[11:21] <VisceraEyes> Why Palmar 3rd?
[11:22] <MrWiggles> how he's been acting
[11:22] <MrWiggles> mig thinks he's suspicous too
[11:22] <VisceraEyes> Yeah, Mig's been in contact with me too.
[11:22] <MrWiggles> Until recently, he hasn't contributed anything
[11:22] <VisceraEyes> What's funny about that is that
[11:22] <VisceraEyes> Yes
[11:22] <VisceraEyes> That
[11:22] <VisceraEyes> I told Mig that he was not playing like his normal self.
[11:22] <MrWiggles> he's just been pointing out blatant stuff, and making posts that are non-contributuions
[11:22] <VisceraEyes> And then 12 hours later he starts contributing.
[11:23] <MrWiggles> Also, I asked him about the naz post
[11:23] <MrWiggles> because it looked weird to me
[11:23] <VisceraEyes> Which?
[11:23] <MrWiggles> he hops on a bandwagon
[11:23] <MrWiggles> then calls out naz for the same thing
[11:23] <MrWiggles> but doesn't call out the two people who stealth voted before him
[11:23] <MrWiggles> or the two who vote without reasons right after
[11:23] <MrWiggles> If I was town, I'd be mad at all of them
[11:23] <VisceraEyes> Eh...anything regarding Nazgul I'm attributing to starfucking
[11:23] <MrWiggles> not just making one post about one
[11:24] <MrWiggles> it's just a useless post to look like a contribution
[11:24] <MrWiggles> As well, he PMed me about that, instead of responding in thread
[11:24] <MrWiggles> and was pretty angry and defensive
[11:24] <VisceraEyes> Oh?
[11:24] <MrWiggles> yeah
[11:25] <VisceraEyes> So "If I was town, I'd be mad at all of them"
[11:25] <VisceraEyes> sigh
[11:25] <MrWiggles> hmmm?
[11:25] <MrWiggles> it just looks weird
[11:25] <MrWiggles> it's like making one post about one lurker
[11:25] <MrWiggles> and never following through
[11:26] <MrWiggles> he also attacked CB, a noob, which was basically tunneling
[11:26] <MrWiggles> and dropped that pretty quickly
[11:26] <MrWiggles> for no reason, to hop onto supersoft
[11:26] <VisceraEyes> Hey
[11:26] <VisceraEyes> Wait
[11:26] <MrWiggles> just tunneling a noob, 12 hours into the day, is a great way to look like you're doing something
[11:26] <VisceraEyes> Will you explain the line 'If I was town, I'd be mad at all of them'
[11:27] <MrWiggles> hmmm?
[11:27] <VisceraEyes> Did you just claim not town to me?
[11:27] <MrWiggles> I'm talking from his perspective
[11:27] <VisceraEyes> Ah
[11:27] <MrWiggles> I'm an SK, so this is how I think. If I was town, I'd think like this
[11:28] <MrWiggles> that's how I analyze people
[11:28] <MrWiggles> try to look at things from their perspective, and what their motives and goals are
[11:32] <VisceraEyes> Okay, I'm red. I think you're scum because you're playing the same way you played when you were my GF in RTM. That's why I'm telling you. If you're not, I've made a huge mistake and I'll probably hang...but if you are, I need to be brought into the fold...because without knowledge of my teammates, I could be pushing to lynch teammates...and as Mafia, that's a big effing boon.
[11:32] <MrWiggles> you're saying you're the traitor?
[11:32] <VisceraEyes> Yes.
[11:32] <VisceraEyes> It's gambit time

[11:34] <VisceraEyes> Fuc,k
[11:34] <VisceraEyes> lol
[11:35] <MrWiggles> hmmm?
[11:35] <VisceraEyes> Felt like you just alt-tabbed to the forum to post this conversation.
[11:35] <MrWiggles> No, I'm just thinking
[11:38] == VisceraEyes [webchat@50-90-142-54.res.bhn.net]
[11:38] == realname : http://webchat.quakenet.org
[11:38] == channels : #TLMafia
[11:38] == server : *.quakenet.org [QuakeNet IRC Server]
[11:38] == End of WHOIS
[11:38] <VisceraEyes> What about?
[11:38] <MrWiggles> How to move forward
[11:38] <MrWiggles> Who else have you been talking to?
[11:39] <VisceraEyes> I've talked to youngminii about how to get RoL lynched, and I've been talking to Mig about my suspicions
[11:39] <VisceraEyes> Mostly revolving around RoL and Palmar
[11:40] <MrWiggles> ok
[11:40] <VisceraEyes> He wanted my opinion of SS
[11:40] <VisceraEyes> I told him I think he's newbTown
[11:40] <MrWiggles> so you think YM is red?
[11:40] <VisceraEyes> No
[11:40] <VisceraEyes> Well
[11:40] <VisceraEyes> I dont' know
[11:40] <MrWiggles> haha
[11:40] <VisceraEyes> But I haven't come out to him if that's what you're asking
[11:41] <MrWiggles> who are you talking to right now?
[11:41] <VisceraEyes> You
[11:41] <VisceraEyes> I just sent a response pm to CuRu
[11:41] <MrWiggles> ok, I got the impression you were with a group of people
[11:42] <VisceraEyes> Mostly just Mig and you...youngminii to a lesser extent.
[11:42] <VisceraEyes> I tried to raise Palmar on IRC but he's nonresponsive.
[11:42] <VisceraEyes> Meaning he's onto me and is preparing a tunnel.
[11:42] <VisceraEyes> lol
[11:42] <MrWiggles> lolol
[11:42] <MrWiggles> So what do you want to do?
[11:43] <VisceraEyes> What do you mean?
[11:43] <VisceraEyes> I want to win.
[11:43] <MrWiggles> Ok, what do you want me to do?
[11:44] <VisceraEyes> What do you mean?
[11:44] <VisceraEyes> If you're scum, I want you to tell me who my teammates are. If you're town I want you to forget this conversation. If you're 3rd party....I want you to not kill me at night. lmao
[11:45] <MrWiggles> lol
[11:45] <VisceraEyes> I don't understand the question
[11:45] <MrWiggles> well
[11:45] <MrWiggles> there's a weird situation here
[11:45] <MrWiggles> where we both don't know eachother's alignment
[11:45] <MrWiggles> I could be town, and you could be scum, in which case, you're screwed
[11:45] <VisceraEyes> But you might
[11:46] <MrWiggles> Or, I could be scum, and you could be town, and this is a trap
[11:46] <VisceraEyes> True.
[11:46] <VisceraEyes> Yeah
[11:46] <VisceraEyes> Okaty
[11:46] <MrWiggles> Or, we could both be scum, and this is good
[11:46] <VisceraEyes> I see what you're saying.
[11:46] <VisceraEyes> Hmmmmm
[11:46] <MrWiggles> Or, we're both town, and you're trying to trap me, and I'm trying to trap you
[11:46] <VisceraEyes> What do you suggest?
[11:46] <MrWiggles> just play like normal
[11:47] <VisceraEyes> Well, this is a halo of flies now.
[11:47] <VisceraEyes> And I can't play normally with this hanging over me
[11:47] <VisceraEyes> So I'm gonna have to tunnel you.
[11:47] <VisceraEyes> Until you claim to me.
[11:47] <VisceraEyes> It's the only thing I can think of.
[11:48] <VisceraEyes> Make your words less credible if you're town.
[11:48] <VisceraEyes> Because you have information abotu me.
[11:48] <MrWiggles> lol
[11:49] <MrWiggles> If I'm red, then this isn't bad, because it keeps you from incriminating anyone, and causes confusion
[11:49] <MrWiggles> If I'm green, then you just get to sit in ignorance
[11:50] <VisceraEyes> If you're green you would have already posted this conversation
[11:51] <VisceraEyes> So I have to assume you're red or 3rd
[11:51] <MrWiggles> Maybe i'm just fishing for information
[11:51] <VisceraEyes> I just gave you all the information I have..who I've talked to, my role, everything I know
[11:51] <VisceraEyes> And it's all right there for you to post
[11:51] <VisceraEyes> And you haven't.
[11:51] <VisceraEyes> You're red or 3rd.
[11:51] <VisceraEyes> So
[11:52] <VisceraEyes> I will not try and lynch you.
[12:03] <VisceraEyes> But tell me what to do about RoL. I have NO idea as to his alignment, but I think he's a solid lynch candidate. Should I advocate it or not? The power...is YOURS!!!!11!!
[12:05] <VisceraEyes> I await your response...going to work nao
[12:06] <VisceraEyes> My fate is in your hands.
[12:06] <VisceraEyes> Don't squander it.
[12:06] <VisceraEyes>


Basically, I wanted to fish for information a bit, and wanted to try to figure out whether to reveal this now, or at night and let vigs deal with it. Decided to reveal now, to avoid vig overlap tonight. He also wasn't giving me any more information. Lynch ends in 7 hours, kill this guy. Shoot redFF, maybe Palmar, tonight.

##Vote: VisceraEyes


lol, i didn't saw this spoiler!!! You guys can't imagine how puzzled i was. okay now I understand the discussion.
the discussion when we should hang is obviously irrelevant for me, because i will hang instead if the guys who vote me don't appear until nights end.

therefor, and because i am not convinced that redFF 100% scum:

##unvote: redFF
##vote: VisceraEyes

Zona
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
40426 Posts
July 19 2011 21:53 GMT
#889
As to the VisceraEyes situation. Claiming traitor is already 99% damning, but the clincher for me is that when VisceraEyes first returned to the thread after Mr. Wiggles's reveal, you posted this:

On July 20 2011 04:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
Then town is screwed obviously. Of course that's assuming I wasn't trying to trap him myself. We'll see who's confirmed and who's not soon. The fact that Wiggles outed this conversation confirms him as town imo and solidifies my read on RoL. I'll still be voting for him today.


The wording is really awkward. If you really were trying to trap him (the only townie "excuse" for claiming traitor) why not just say that straight up?

As to the discussion on a sure-lynch target not providing information from voting patterns: That is a downside to it. But the objective of the game is to get rid of scum, and information is a path to finding scum. If you find scum, lynch. We start the quest for more information on the next day, with one scum down.

VisceraEyes: You should consider now posting everything from your private conversations that you think might benefit town if you are lynched.
"If you try responding to those absurd posts every day, you become more damaged. So I pay no attention to them at all." Jung Myung Hoon (aka Fantasy), as translated by Kimoleon
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
July 19 2011 21:55 GMT
#890
In fact, anyone pushing the terms 'confirmed' around should be held accountable for their words. In what way am I 'confirmed' scum? In what way is anyone 'confirmed black'? I told a lie to Wiggles in an attempt to fool him, it worked in a way I had NOT intended, I've explained myself. I don't understand how anything is 'confirmed' at this point at all.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
ketomai
Profile Joined June 2007
United States2789 Posts
July 19 2011 21:58 GMT
#891
On July 20 2011 06:46 Zona wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 20 2011 04:30 ketomai wrote:
Look how much has happened in day 1, day 2 will bring just as many if not more information, diluting the day 1 info.

...

Time is on the mafia's side.

I'm surprised nobody's called this out - worrying that more information will bring about "dilution" and the idea that time benefits mafia. You even bolded the idea that time worked against town!!

In almost every case (there's always rare particular instances and game setups which prove to be the exception), time benefits town. There's longer patterns to analyze, there's more voting records to examine, there's more statements and arguments that can be dissected, and in this game, there's more clues available as well.

The way town affects the pace of the game is by how freely the vigilantes shoot. I've already advocated my position on this before (be conservative in the early game, except to carry out policy lynches), but suppose that vigilantes shot freely every night, and among their shots, a number of townies are killed. This could bring us to lylo earlier, and into a situation where we have less information. I'm very leery that you advocated this idea.

(In this particular game, time also benefits Ra'as and Batman, giving them more information and chances to hit their respective targets. Mafia and Joker are the two parties that don't benefit from time.)


Why would giving up 3 night kills, potentially 2 black kills, and potential misfire vigi kills for free benefit the town in anyway? Are you asserting that letting up pressure on mafia would help town? It doesn't. The faster we figure things out and gather information from lynches the faster we can get rid of mafia. Letting them have a free day is extremely counterproductive because what happens after that free day? We are left with less people than before, there's opportunities to confuse the town for another day, and absolutely no progress is immediately made. If you have strong deductions, now is the time to act.2
CjrNinja
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia223 Posts
July 19 2011 21:58 GMT
#892
Just saw the wiggles-ve convo... Lol. Unvoting supsoft
Vote visceraeyes
I still want people to realize that ve 'lied' in his first post on day one... Then later lied to town less than 12 hours into day one. The only reason im unvoting you is literally because ve claimed black/red.
Will post more thoughts after i get back from work ~6 hours or so..
For her everything was red, orange, gold-red from the sun on the closed eyes, and it all was that color, all of it, the filling, the possessing, the having, all of that color, all in a blindness of that color.
CjrNinja
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia223 Posts
July 19 2011 22:00 GMT
#893
edit: meant to say supersoft 'lied' in his first post one.
For her everything was red, orange, gold-red from the sun on the closed eyes, and it all was that color, all of it, the filling, the possessing, the having, all of that color, all in a blindness of that color.
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
July 19 2011 22:00 GMT
#894
I 100% believe VE is scum. I had already told a couple people I had thought he was scum before wiggles convo. Look at his day 1 play of RTM (where he was mafia) and compare it to today. It is almost identical. He is normally a very active scum hunter as town. This game and RTM he has basically done 0 scum hunting and 0 analysis. And does anyone believe his excuse that he was trying to trap wiggles? Look at his posts in the thread he hadn't commented on anything or anyone besides RoL all thread. He hadn't made any effort to scum hunt yet he was trying to trap wiggles? Just doesn't add up.

The only thing I worry about is the lack of information we will gain from it. Along with kavdragon raising a good point we have no shot at lowering the mafia kp by killing VE. Still though probably best to just kill a confirmed scum.

##unvote redff

##vote VE

Normally I encourage vigs to hold off on their shots this early in the game but there are a lot of very very good targets right now for them. So if vigs shoot tonight shoot between redff/nisani/pyo. I really hope someone kills redff.

Moderator
Zona
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
40426 Posts
July 19 2011 22:01 GMT
#895
At this point in the game (and probably for the rest of the game, unless something drastic happens), I am against all plans for players to reveal any role information to one another, including the vigilante coordination plan.

First of all, I think the worry that vigilante kills will overlap are the LEAST among town's worries. Bigger worries include:
- vigilantes shooting the wrong target and bringing town more quickly towards its demise
- vigilantes outing themselves and getting killed before they can really be game-changing in the late game

In games with different setups, forming a "town circle" with confirmed townies coordinating power roles and even voting can be very strong, but in this game, with 4 godfathers and a non-fixed role list, I doubt this kind of play will be useful.

The only sort of reveal I would even possibly consider beneficial is if a DT found a scum but couldn't build a public case against him or her, to possibly reveal to those who the DT have checked as town. But there's still a big risk with the godfathers and must be combined by the DT's own behavioral analysis on the people the DT wants to reveal to, and in any case is only to be used as a last resort.
"If you try responding to those absurd posts every day, you become more damaged. So I pay no attention to them at all." Jung Myung Hoon (aka Fantasy), as translated by Kimoleon
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
July 19 2011 22:02 GMT
#896
Well, for starters...

From: CreamyButter [ 48 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ]
Subject: halp
Date: 7/20/11 04:00
Hi, im an insane inmate. Not sure how to prove it. Is there any way for you to figure out who mafia is and then tell them my name? Not sure how you would accomplish this, just PM scummy people? Idk, I mean they know you're red though so that should help. Hopefully I've PMed you before any fake claims to you. I'll be asleep for the next several hours, should wake up around 9:30 KST. Kthx

This feels more like a fake-claim aimed to confirm my claim to Wiggles than an actual scum-claim.

if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
July 19 2011 22:04 GMT
#897
^

wat

That's not forged is it?
wat
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
July 19 2011 22:06 GMT
#898
It wouldn't be the strangest thing I've seen, but no, that was sent to me a little bit ago after Wiggles posted the conversation.

No one else is claiming red to me, so that's about all I have that actually HELPS town. I can post my back and forth between Mig and Curu though...but that's all about reads and speculation...nothing really concrete.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
July 19 2011 22:07 GMT
#899
Well since nobody seems to be following my advice about not letting everyone bandwagon VE today so scum can hide, I formally request a Vig to shoot CB in the face so we don't have to deal with another no info lynch tomorrow.
wat
syllogism
Profile Joined September 2010
Finland5948 Posts
July 19 2011 22:10 GMT
#900
I noted earlier his posts made him a good insane inmate suspect, and if he really made that PM without informing anyone, he should be vigied
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