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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
To organize my thoughts, I will be using the format: "If I die tonight, town should increase their scum-read on "X" and "Y" because of "Reasons"." "In case I die tonight, for the record, I believe "Z" and "B" to be very town." Even this can be useful, in case there is an SK or Vig shot: "If I do not die tonight, "X" becomes more town to me because of "Other Reasons"." Statements made before the NK have a special brand of honesty to them. You may surprise yourself by what you write. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
No you may post after the action deadline. That's just for us hosts to be able to work everything out and get stuff ready. | ||
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WaveofShadow
Canada31494 Posts
On June 27 2013 08:51 geript wrote: Is the hour after the action deadline supposed to be completely silent, or will we be able to post? No you may post after the action deadline. That's just for us hosts to be able to work everything out and get stuff ready. Makes me wonder how people do it on time without the 1 hour pre-deadline. | ||
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geript
10024 Posts
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Spicydinosaur
United States382 Posts
Stim Stim is playing similar to how he did last game, which to put it simply, wasn't helpful. He only has 1 read and its on aqua. His argument can be boiled down to three points: 1. Aqua had a bad policy argument and contradicted himself. 2. His case on chrom was extremely weak and he backed off chrom rather quickly. 3. He was looking for a lynch target and found it in xzavier. Stim's vote was off wagon so that doesn't tell us much at all. That's basically all there is to go on. We don't know a hell of a lot about him other than the above. So with that he could easily be a lazy townie or deliberate scum. I also dont know if a pressure vote would work on him if he only checks the forum at the last second. It is really a coin flip with him. As others have said, decent vig target. Lone One of the lesser active posters. He was on xzavier from the beginning and looked at xzavier's meta like i did, but came up with the opposite conclusion. He stayed on xzavier and defended his decision against me. He was actively answering questions around the lynch time. He's playing similar to his last game where he came in late and got a townie lynced, but ended up being town himself. Null/town read but hasnt really done anything bad yet. Would like to see more discussion. Alakaslam I feel he is closest to chaos incarnate. I think it is a deliberate play to be so utterly confusing for the most part that neither town nor scum would want to kill him. His first day of post was useless as he himself put it. His switch from voting aqua to xzavier is what's interesting. On June 25 2013 21:49 Alakaslam wrote: Scum reads? Finally got one: Aquanim. Haven't read filters, haven't got a case, just want to contribute a skimmer's gut feeling before possible drasticness. Take it or leave it, especially as I must sleep as checkout is 1 pm and I checked In at a defeated 4:30. Fail at job, fail here but there is always another game  and the farm will irrigate again in a week or less.##Vote: Aquanim and then the unvote On June 26 2013 03:52 Alakaslam wrote: Hey had some sleep now sorry for being a melodramatic asshole, you guys are right. I am still decidin between bandwagons, and will EXPLAIN my choice when I make it, promise. ## Unvote: Aquanim and then the vote on xzavier On June 26 2013 10:11 Alakaslam wrote: ok. Thanks. Then I like your Filter. Reading filters is so liberating! I now see both sides, as I have read Xzavier's filter, and thought he was town, because all I saw was pro-Xzavier posts (duh). Now, having read Aquanim's case AGAINST him, I go back to what I thought before, except with this: Xzavier, sorry. Nothing you can do to get this off your back. ##Vote: Xzavier I was a little suspicious of Onegu. So he's my next "Scum" read, but really my read is neutral toward him. He DID clean up my [expletive], after all. Nice to be at home/work pc again. Will keep reading filters, "so this is how you people make cases"....  diz my play diz game yall duh hurdurr ^^ His later stuff dealing with onegu feels like he has this weird feeling that onegu is bad and was just waiting for someone to make a case on him. Either that or he's just trying to get an early start on the sheeping. So in summary, as xzavier turned out to be a townie, im more inclined to think he is null/scummy. Could very well be noob town. But the amount of chaos in his post feels calculated. I wouldn't want to lynch him but try to get a more active discussion out of him. Aquanim I completely disagreed on his early policy of having the NN claim and his voting of chrom felt very premature. He talks about policy while his vote is on chrom and doesnt seem to be scum hunting anyone else, as he mostly just asks others what they are thinking. I also think he went on a little too long with the whole NN issue as he didnt scum hunt as much during it. His vote on xzavier felt very "you voted for me, well screw you back." Xzavier wasn't really on his radar till the vote and then he went all out on him. His arguments did feel genuine and has been active in discussions. Town read. Hurricane He was changed the most from when i voted him. I still stand by my vote at the time but his subsequent posts have been extraordinarily better and i have a town read on him now. Chrom: Had an early town read on him up until the vote. he went all out on the xzavier lynch and ended up being wrong. Still think he is towny, but lately it seems he isnt really reading cases/opnions as much. When i posted about tofu about his voting, Chrom completely excused it. I had to re-quote something that was very troubling about tofu. Only after that did he really take a look, which then led to Tofu explaining his lie. Still town in my eyes but got some issues. Onegu: already posted about him but just want to reiterate that i didnt like his vote switch and will sheep other's concerns on the apathy issue. null read I'm going out for the rest of the night so If im still alive i'll be on in the morning. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
The Tofu lying thing bothers me a bit, but I'm willing to overlook it on account of a) the fact that his explanation holds together and b) the sheer amount of TOWN in his filter. I think that these reads should be pretty obvious to anyone who looks through their filters. The mindset that their posts come from is clearly town. Spicy, hz, Aqua, and Alaka (in rough order of decreasing town) are all unlikely scum. I'm almost certainly wrong on at least one of them, but I have no idea who. Spicy in particular might look wierd here, as I was on him for his voting, but his Xzav read looks genuine if you look at his filter. He has several reasons for not voting Xzav, and he sticks to those reasons in the face of aggression from the town. It would have been very possible for scum Spicy to avoid drawing attention here by simply giving in, but he sticks to his read. He even backs down from one of his points when I argue him on it, but still explains why he has the read. That's very town to me + Show Spoiler + On June 26 2013 00:38 Spicydinosaur wrote: Fair point the on WIFOM. For me it just comes down to the fact that i dont see this as a scum xzavier given his last game play and self reflection afterwards with his bad reads. I just don't buy a scum xzavier not having some type of read or questions about cases out by the time of the vote. The rest of his filter is townie, as I've said before. He has active conversations with the thread, his reads change in genuine ways, and he doesn't really look to be blending in. In particular, the shitfight with Tofu isn't something that scum would want to get into. It puts the spotlight on Spicy, but he kept up with his logic the whole time and didn't resort to emotional attacks or backing down and sulking away. hz has been making some wierd and nonsensical arguments, but he's active in the thread and feels genuine and townie (in addition to what I've said in the past). Alaka has been posting a lot of nonsense. This gives me town feels because he is not being careful AT ALL. He's done the opposite of blending in, he's drawn so much attention to himself that I can't believe a scum would willingly do. He's been asking for people to vote him off, which is pretty risky to do as scum because it's so frowned upon. All of this makes me really think that he is just town that has an extremely odd way of playing the game. The reason that he's so low on this list is that it's possible that he's actually SCUM with a really wierd way of playing the game. Stim and Meow (in order of decreasing town) are likely scum. I was thinking that Meow was town day 1, but a reread of him makes this less likely for a few reasons. First, he's pretty much the definition of "blending in". He posts the bare minimum so that he's not noticed, and it's been working very well. Compared to Stim, Meow has been virtually unnoticed (partially my fault, I know). His reads completely echo town sentiment. What I saw as "looking for scum" earlier really is just him asking some random questions in one post and never following up on them. He's also been completely absent post-lynch and for this whole night phase. I'll continue on this in a separate post. Onegu is probably scum. I (and Tofu) have already said why. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
(Honestly I doubt I'm going to die tonight, but between unknowable scum motivations, overzealous vigilantes and inscrutable Serial Killers one can never quite be sure...) If I die tonight, town should increase their scum-read on "X" and "Y" because of "Reasons" Spicydinosaur. See the section on him below. In case I die tonight, for the record, I believe "Z" and "B" to be very town. Chromatically and, to a lesser extent, Hurricane Sponge. Hurricane has picked up his play a lot since the lynch (which is a little odd) but both of them and I are too much on the same wavelength. In case I die tonight, give "L" some space to play: LoneMeow. I've liked what I've seen of his play so far, but there just hasn't been enough of it. Apparently he's been on vacation, but the fact that he hasn't felt the need to say it ingame, let alone use it as an excuse, is a good sign. @LoneMeow: You mostly weren't here day 1 and you've got some catching up to do in terms of proving your credentials as a townie. I appreciate there are some people <glares at StiMaDDict> who've done even less than you, but don't use that as an excuse. If I live through tonight, I look forward to speaking with you. If I die tonight have a good long think about your scumread on "V": Onegu. See the section on him below. If I die tonight, "κ" and "∅" are still basically policy lynches in my view: Alakaslam and StiMaDDict. Alakaslam's incessant martyring is really making me grind my teeth, but... fundamentally it's just another of those things I wish was scummy. He is posting some arguments and thinking about the thread a little, but is the analysis he's provided something scum could cook up? I still have no idea. StiMaDDict continues to do sweet fanny adams. We may just have to lynch him, or threaten to enough that he bloody well talks to us. If I die tonight I never got around to thoroughly reading " " and " ": FirmTofu and hzflank. I'm feeling townish on both of these two but if I'm wrong on my townreads I think it's probably these ones. On Spicydinosaur + Show Spoiler + The point was made early in the thread that Spicy was playing defensively. I would rather term his play as "reactive". Spicy's reply to this was as follows: On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: I do this in all my games, check out Les Mafiafor a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched. I thought maybe I should actually go and read Les Mafia. Oh boy..... In Les Mafia, Spicydinosaur was a Parity Cop. I would characterise his play in the following way:
I strongly suggest that everybody read Les Mafia and get your own feeling for Spicy's play in that game. (Before anyone yells out that meta isn't a valid tool for analysis, Spicy provided this HIMSELF to justify his actions. Obviously, he thinks that it is a valid tool to analyse his play.) His argument with FirmTofu (you know the one) isn't particularly alignment-indicative to me. He is flinging a lot of shit at FirmTofu, but I can't say that he wouldn't do this as town too. This section of his filter could bear further analysis I feel. Spicy's reads so far (shortly summarised) are as follows:
I may have missed some reads but I don't think any of them were significant. In short, none of these reads make me think "town" and they all seem pretty convenient from a scummy perspective. Do I think Spicy's scum for not arguing harder for a switch away from Xzavier onto Hurricane? Not really, the thread sentiment was pretty strong against Xzavier at that point and it would take an awfully strong townie to face up to that. But it certainly isn't a towny indication, either. tl;dr I haven't found much of anything in Spicy's filter which makes me strongly think town, and unlike Onegu I'd expect there to be something if he was town. My gut says scum, but I want to look for more before drawing final conclusions. On Onegu + Show Spoiler + As far as I can tell the case on Onegu boils down to a few main points: 1) His 'apathy' to the day one wagons - generally indicative of scum not wanting to take responsibility. 2) The less-than-persuasive nature of his cases Is this a plausible interpretation of Onegu's actions if he's scum? I think it is. However, it is not the only possible interpretation. 1) Onegu did, and always has had, a scumread on me. I suspect it's mostly a gut read, since the reasons he's raising are not very strong. He was at one point the primary force behind my wagon, I'd say; at least he was arguing his point. However, at a certain point he jumped off my vote and went to Alakaslam instead. If he's scum, he could have convincingly stayed on my wagon for a great deal longer than he did - hell, he could have rode that wagon all the way to a mislynch without looking terminally scummy. He wasn't under a great deal of pressure to move his vote at that point, except from me - I have difficulty seeing the direct scum motivation for this move. Question: After switching vote to Alakaslam, do you think Onegu *could* have switched his vote back to me without looking absolutely awful, whatever his actual alignment? As such, was he actually as apathetic to the lynch as the final place his vote ended up might indicate? Onegu had already taken a fair bit of responsibility for his read on me. Furthermore, do you think Onegu was capable of effectively arguing against the strong prevailing thread sentiment towards the end of the day? I don't. 2) Just because he's wrong, and hasn't made accurate cases, is no guarantee that Onegu is scum. The question you have to ask yourself is "Is Onegu honestly searching the thread and trying to find scum?". Again, for me, this is a definite maybe. I still want to see Onegu play some more to convince myself whether he is sincere in his accusations. Other people in this game are reading filters and making high-level, rational conclusions from their overal understanding of the game, and that's a town indication for me. Scum prefer to nitpick because it's harder for them to be caught out in a lie or inconsistency, and is inherently less work. They're not interested in That being said, just because someone isn't effectively hunting for scum doesn't mean they aren't trying to hunt for scum. I think the most important thing in trying to read Onegu is to assess whether he is honestly and sincerely trying to find scum. tl;dr I think there is a reasonable explanation for Onegu's actions from both a town and a scum perspective. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Also, I think Spicy would have looked a LOT worse if he'd backflipped on his Xzavier read. In fact I can't see any reason why he'd vote Xzavier if he was scum. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On June 24 2013 14:43 LoneMeow wrote: There's this thing called timezones - it's now 07:43 in my current local time... Regarding to claiming, I'd like to ask that nobody claims. Day 1 claiming is generally not a great idea. I'd like to note that largely with the exception of this post, you haven't done much scumhunting yourself. Would you care to elaborate on those small things for me? I do agree about Xzavier feeling scummy though. It first felt like a bit of meta case, as I remember him being very actively townie during day 1 in our last game, but reading through what he's said so far he hasn't really done any hunting so it seems objectively scummy, too. This post seems like Meow really doesn't want to rock the boat at all and draw attention to himself. He pressures me in the most non-confrontational possible way, and then agrees with me on Xzavier. He doesn't offer any original opinions (or any other opinions at all). This is a theme throughout his posting. On June 25 2013 07:05 LoneMeow wrote: Xzavier, I still don't like your filter. Practically just setup speculation, no scum hunting or reads. I want to lynch you. I'm not all that comfortable with lynching hzflank, in fact I'd rather not. I read him as town-ish. StiMaDDict, start participating in some way. Who's your top scum read, why? fyfy, you say you'd "rather lynch someone scummier", tell me who'd that be? ##Vote: Xzavier This vote has very, very little reasoning behind it. Xzav happened to be, even at this point, the closest thing that town had to a consensus on a scumread. I had started pressuring hz right before this post, so Meow calls him town (leaving wiggle room, of course) because that was what everyone besides me was saying. He doesn't offer a single original opinion here. He doesn't offer any opinions at all, in fact, other than the ones that were widely agreed upon. He asks some questions to the other lurkers, but never follows up on them. This really shows that he's not actually interested in what they say. He's only doing it to look like he's interacting with the town. On June 25 2013 23:48 LoneMeow wrote: Have you looked at it from the perspective that he might be scum that panicked once he had votes on him and only then started doing something to look more towny? Even now his filter is "plenty of posts, little content", which I find very troublesome, though it I admit I don't feel as sure about this lynch as I did earlier. Also I see that some of my town reads are not on his case or are defending him, which is worrying. This is posted when the Xzav lynch is uncertain (only Meow, me, and Aqua onboard). Several people were defending Xzav at this point. Meow makes sure to leave an out, so that way he can switch off easily if need be ("I wasn't as sure and my town reads were defending him"). On June 26 2013 01:10 LoneMeow wrote: Stim lynch with the info we have right now would be too much of a coin flip I think, however if he doesn't come back and elaborate as he promised I am ready to see him hang. And unless something truly game changing happens my vote will be on Xzavier or Stim - definitely not Aquanim. Right as the case on Stim is posted, and a Stim wagon is a very real possibility, Meow comes in and says that he'd be willing to switch. Notice how he's continually leaving his options open: he has an excuse to either stay on Xzav or switch to Stim if necessary. Both of these reads are carbon copies of the town sentiment. That's almost all of his posts. Remember how he just said that he'd switch to Stim if he never came back? Didn't happen. Meow never mentions Stim again after this, because the wagon on Stim doesn't happen. Literally every read that he has is exactly what the town is thinking. He doesn't offer his own opinion on anyone besides the centers of attention, Xzav/Stim (and a little hz). He also leaves his options wide open just in case he needs to move. He posts just enough so that he's seen as the most town of the lurkers, but that's exactly what scum would do as a lurker. Meow has been blending in and not drawing attention to the max, the ESSENTIAL characteristic of scum play. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
If I get shot by mafia tonight, I want the town to push hard for either a Spicy or StiM lynch. Conversely, if I am not the target of a mafia hit tonight, I will view Spicy as town. StiM, probably not so much. My reasoning on this is that Spicy went at me solo and hard early, and was the last to warm up to me. When everyone had a clear early town read on me, he saw a minor point he could blow out of proportion in my posts, and decided to pounce. Once he realized he couldn't get the town on board for a mis-lynch, he started going after Tofu (another massive Town read). His filter could be explained as an overly defensive, tunnel-y town play, but his recent attitude change could also easily be explained as a scum player who knows I'm going to be shot tonight. Spicy strikes me as the best scum player in their threesome right now, so the other two would likely defer to him to call the shot. I don't think I've been the best townie in the game so far... but I'm up there. Scum Spicy should see me as a threat for my last 48 hours of posting. Again, if I am not the target of the shot tonight, I will have a Strong Town read on Spicy. All of the material in his filter can be explained in a Town setting (though how he has played so far is definitely not how I play town). If I am not the target of the mafia kill tonight, I do not think Spicy is scum. In regards to StiM, I believe I've been the only one to push seriously for his lynching. If StiM is mafia, they may view me as the lone annoying threat to one of their members. If they can slay me now, the driving force pushing for a StiM lynch is also dead. He is a person worth considering. And keep in mind, for people citing the 'he always does this' meta: StiM was much more active by this point in the game last game. He is intentionally lurking now. And he's getting away with it. Alakaslam is not scum. At least he's not mafia. His posting is incredibly chaotic, but there's an authenticity there. I trust him, and think he will be a valuable pro-town vote, even if scum-hunting isn't his strong suit. Be nice to him. I view LoneMeow how (I suspect) most everyone else views StiM. I have a town read on Aqua, but that doesn't matter. Everyone in this thread has already made up their mind on Aqua, and me posting about him in my final hour won't change that. hz and onegu are my worst reads. You're on your own for them until I can collect my thoughts better. I haven't breadcrumbed some secret message about them, so if I'm about to go down, you all have to sort out that mess on your own. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On June 27 2013 10:23 Aquanim wrote: @Chromatically: What makes you think that "mostly agrees with you, but doesn't have time to fully flesh out his ideas and make his own thread impact" isn't a reasonable explanation for LoneMeow's play to date? Also, I think Spicy would have looked a LOT worse if he'd backflipped on his Xzavier read. In fact I can't see any reason why he'd vote Xzavier if he was scum. In theory, there's a somewhat plausible town explanation for every scum action. That doesn't mean that it's likely. I think that Meow has been trying to stay under the radar too much to by town (by completely sheeping town sentiment and leaving his lynch options open). I disagree with most of your reasoning on Spicy. First of all, I'm not looking at his meta. According to Xzav's meta, he was scum. I could make an argument that you're scum based on meta, because you're not as much of a town leader that you were in XXXIII. You could make a meta argument that I'm scum because I haven't used associations and I opened differently. Meta is not useful in newbie games. His stance on Xzav wasn't wishy-washy at all, it was that Xzav was town. He believed this enough to argue it against me, and logically stand his ground. Spicy might have looked worse if he had switched to Xzav, but if you read his reasoning, there's no reason to think that it's fake because it looks very genuine. I'm surprised that you see nothing townie in his filter. Look at the giant fight he had with Tofu, look at how he interacts with me about my cases and his cases. I think he's town. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
Especially in a case like this where I don't think there's a single obvious target that scum really should shoot, trying to second-guess their reasons for choosing one plausible target over another is pretty heavy WIFOM. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 27 2013 10:41 Aquanim wrote: @Hurricane Sponge: I would be awfully careful about drawing conclusions from who the mafia choose to target with their NK. When all is said and done, the scum have control over the NK, and town drawing direct conclusions from who they choose to target may be entirely their intention in choosing that target. Especially in a case like this where I don't think there's a single obvious target that scum really should shoot, trying to second-guess their reasons for choosing one plausible target over another is pretty heavy WIFOM. You're right. This is WIFOM to a letter. But I think there are two very obvious targets for the mafia tonight. I was going to post who I thought was safe at the beginning of Night Time, and the list ended up being 8 people long. Then I thought, 'well, this doesn't help the town at all'. Hopefully the mafia screw up and shoot someone else, but if they do they're making a massive blunder. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On June 27 2013 10:40 Chromatically wrote: In theory, there's a somewhat plausible town explanation for every scum action. That doesn't mean that it's likely. I think that Meow has been trying to stay under the radar too much to by town (by completely sheeping town sentiment and leaving his lynch options open). I disagree with most of your reasoning on Spicy. First of all, I'm not looking at his meta. According to Xzav's meta, he was scum. I could make an argument that you're scum based on meta, because you're not as much of a town leader that you were in XXXIII. You could make a meta argument that I'm scum because I haven't used associations and I opened differently. Meta is not useful in newbie games. His stance on Xzav wasn't wishy-washy at all, it was that Xzav was town. He believed this enough to argue it against me, and logically stand his ground. Spicy might have looked worse if he had switched to Xzav, but if you read his reasoning, there's no reason to think that it's fake because it looks very genuine. I'm surprised that you see nothing townie in his filter. Look at the giant fight he had with Tofu, look at how he interacts with me about my cases and his cases. I think he's town. I have read it and I say again there is nothing about it I can't believe from a scum Spicy. Look at the giant fight he had with Tofu, and think to yourself: what would Spicy have done differently if he was scum? That argument was mostly just those two flinging mud at one another, with not a whole lot of rational thought. I don't see any reason to believe he's town over that - I think he played that exactly as scum Spicy would. Again, look at his discussion with you and think to yourself: what would Spicy have done differently if he was scum? Backing off his Xzavier read would have been SUICIDE considering how defiantly he'd defended it earlier. His argument to you that Xzavier was town basically consisted of "I said he was town before for those shitty reasons and I stand by them" and for some reason you're buying this. I don't see how or why you think defending a townie with bad reasons, and resisting all arguments to the contrary with "You're wrong" without any further justification is a town indication. At best it's null. You think he's genuine apparently - I don't. If you feel the need to ignore meta, then let me rephrase it: If player Y says that player X is one of his more likely speculative scumreads, very early in the game, and player X responds by throwing an ill-thought-out case at player Y mostly based on "he said I'm scum so he's scum" and other assorted rubbish without actually defending his own play, is that a scummy or towny thing to do? I think it's pretty obviously more likely from scum, regardless of Spicy's meta. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
Like the Kenpachi rule. | ||
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hzflank
United Kingdom2991 Posts
On June 27 2013 04:48 FirmTofu wrote: I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim? The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me. In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible. If you were scum and Aqua were town then there are other reasons as to why you pushed for hard for the Xz lynch. At first glance, the Xz lynch did not make you look scummy. Also, Aqua stated early that he thought Onegu scummy and repeated it many times. After the vote was secure but before the flip, there was already talk in the thread of Onegu being scum. If the scum thought that they already had the start of a day 2 case against Onegu then they would want Aqua alive to help their case. It a weak reason and alone means nothing in terms of Tofu being scum, but I don't think it should be totally ignored. I will grab the quotes about this tomorrow and try to ogranise the info, for my sake as well as yours. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
If I die, just investigate Spicy, don't no-brainer him. I could get shot for my aggression on StiM. Aqua is right (about trying to derive motivation from NK's). Just know that those two would be the suspects I'd pursue first if I were killed. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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