EPT
Newbie Mini Mafia - Page 16
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supersoft
Germany3729 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
![[image loading]](http://fun-pics.com/pumpkin,gun.m.jpg) Night One The vengeful spirits of newbie-ville had returned to haunt its inhabitants. GMarshal could be heard wailing into the night. Avenge me and my ponies! For the sake of friendship! Too bad nobody listened. There was no lynch. You have 24 hours to submit your night actions. Please remember to send them to both myself and erandorr. Thanks! | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/WHkQw.png) | ||
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
On November 01 2011 11:30 GMarshal wrote: [spectral voice] Vengeance will be mine, you will carry it out, or I shall avenge myself on YOU[/spectral voice] you mispelled : lurk: | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now. 1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo. 2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit. 3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what. 4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen. For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1 I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. | ||
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On November 01 2011 09:40 Zanfada wrote: This last statement is really odd, If you are town then there is no reason to bring it up. This seems like a scum slip to me but why say you might be red if you are scum... can you comment on this skram, the choice of words is still bothering me. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day. Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now. 1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo. 2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit. 3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what. 4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen. For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1 I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. 1. seems indeed very unlikely 2. is still possible, since it's a newbie game and we are all a bit unfamiliar with the way things go. I heard last newbie game had alot of modkills? 3. I have actually no problem believing this one. Stating that the town is fucked is not really an argument for likelyhood  4. This senario is actually less likely for me than 3. This is a newbie game, some of us are unfamiliar with the way things go (like me) and so only a few town-votes don't really suprise me at all. in order of likelyhood: 3>2>4>1 | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going. I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes. was meant to be: "because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get him lynched and no need to change votes." Also, when I was talking about 6 guys possibly spreading votes I was referring to townies only. 6 guys = 6 townie + 3 mafias spreading votes. | ||
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Skrammen
Norway195 Posts
On November 02 2011 01:36 Zanfada wrote: can you comment on this skram, the choice of words is still bothering me. Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again? What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again. | ||
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
On November 02 2011 02:03 Toadesstern wrote: the problem with 3 is that it would mean that we're not able to get more than 3 votes focussed on someone and I think that is very unlikely because that's 6 (!) guys who are spreading votes. Not the fact that town would be screwed if 3 (pretty much the same as 2) turns out to be true is the thing that makes it the easiest / most likely explanation. I don't know how you guys approach this game but I figured people know that we need to lynch people to get something going. I got to add that I probably forgot one solution. Maybe people didn't read the first post in this thread carefully and did not read my post about it pointing it out again: This game has no simple majority rule. Having 6 votes on Skrammen was not enough to get him lynched although he was the one with the most votes on the list. If there's a couple of people who did not know that for whatever reason, it would be another explanation for why we're not even able to lynch a townie (talking about scenario 2 and 3) because they thought 6 on Skrammen is already enough to get them lynched and no need to change votes. I'm still not excluding 3 as a possibility. If we faced this situation on day 2, i would agree.. but i don't see any reason to exclude option 3 on day 1 just because it would be bad play by the town. | ||
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IMABUNNEH
United Kingdom1062 Posts
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day. Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now. 1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo. 2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit. 3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what. 4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen. For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1 I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. I agree, both red is almost impossible, especially considering how hard you pushed to get that one single extra vote. If you're both green then we have several issues. One would be we don't actually have a real clue as to who the scum are, since the 2 of you are our 2 main candidates. Both green seems unlikely given that there's a real case for both of you at this point. The decision then lies in who is red and who is green. If he is red, then I don't have a clue who his buddies are, but likely one of them must have voted for him. The other voters just don't strike me as particularly scummy just yet. If YOU are red however, then you'd be on the right train voting the person with the highest votes. I still don't like your case against him basically being "He didn't say enough". For him I haven't seen enough to know for certain, maybe 60% if it wasn't for you. But I'm 85% on yourself. You FOSd around a while and joined the majority (granted you voted just early enough that it wasn't a guaranteed majority on him, but it was late enough to know the general feeling of the group). That's what I think of the Skrammen/Toad situation anyway. I've got to eat, while I flick through the other posters. | ||
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risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
Do you think Toadesstern is scum. Why? Do you think Skrammen is scum. Why? Feel free to bring up other people aswell. we need to get some people discussions going. | ||
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