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layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
January 16 2012 22:06 GMT
#2021
what happened to analysis?
TT
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
Barbiero
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Brazil5259 Posts
January 16 2012 22:06 GMT
#2022
Alright, now on another topic.

Objectively. RoL/MrWiggles/HoD case.

First of all, things we know:
There was no Sage counterclaim so far
The Channeler died between night 2 and night 3

Secondly, possible case scenarios for RoL/MrW/HoD, assuming syllo was NOT the sage(or he'd have counterclaimed and killed HoD on spot):
RoL was either an Angel or the Channeler(as claimed by).
MrWiggles was either the Channeler or the Sage OR a VT.
HarbingerOfDoom is either the Sage or an Angel.

if RoL was an Angel, MrWiggles must have been the Channeler, therefore validating HoD's claim.
if RoL was the Channeler, MrWiggles could have been the Sage therefore making HoD's claim invalid

Reasons for MrW being the Sage over HoD and for HoD's claim to be invalid were pointed out by syllogism and layabout already. Both RoL and HoD being Angels is NOT a likely scenario because there was no counterclaim to Sage, and the Channeler must be MrWiggles or RoL(according to night action orders).

So, unless syllogism was the Sage(which is unlikely, as he could have just counterclaimed and sniped HoD on the spot), either RoL was town or HoD is town.


layabout, what do you have to say about this? Do you think RoL could have been that bad and we actually mislynched the Channeler, or do you think that HoD is actually the Sage?

Am I missing something about this?

Also, that song is awesome layabout.
♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:07 GMT
#2023
I see no problem with this code for communicating with the demons. Feel free to continue with your analysis. However, the demons know what RoL really was, and whether you were really twisted, which tells us what HoD is. They also know which scum are demons, which will increase our chance of hitting angels.

I honestly think this is not a bad idea at all.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:09 GMT
#2024
On January 17 2012 07:04 Blazinghand wrote:
Final refined demon communication code:

Please do the following
1) if you are willing to talk about whether or not layabout was twisted, move my vote onto REFALLEN then ZEPHIRDD.
2) if you are willing to reveal the identify of RoL's flip, move my vote onto GRACKARONI then onto ZEPHIRDD.
3) otherwise, please move my vote onto your best read for angels. If that read happens to be LAYABOUT (where my vote is currently parked), indicate that this is the case by moving my vote onto ZEPHIRDD then back onto LAYABOUT.


4) If you would like me to introduce additional options for communication via vote movement, move my vote onto JACKAL then onto ZEPHIRDD.


Just in case the demon team missed it last page
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
January 16 2012 22:12 GMT
#2025
BH if you are a demon your entire communication procedure is incredibly brilliant. What I mean by that is it doesn't tell us anymore than a cheap seance parlor trick.
Yes I believe you to be town. But I'm wrong just as often on my town reads as I am on my scum reads.
Pardon me but my skeptic is coming out.
Life can only kill you once.
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:15 GMT
#2026
Ok, fair enough. Do you believe there is a way to communicate the the demons via vote movement that can benefit us today? If so, what is that? I'll do that instead.

If you don't think this can help us find angels, why?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
January 16 2012 22:16 GMT
#2027
BH if you were a demon would you accept that offer?
+ if you are faking then this is hilarious
If you are town would you care to analyse some players? (and then vote HoD because my points are still spot-on)
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:19 GMT
#2028
layabout: if I were a demon I'd know how RoL flipped, and if there were still 3 angels on the field I would absolutely accept that offer.

Also, if I were a demon false-claiming CT wouldn't I just get killed by the demon-hunter? It sounds really dumb to me. After all, the demon hunter is killing me tonight for sure to get rid of a demon vote after we lynch an angel.

If I were an angel false-claiming CT, the demons would just use their real CT plus people's arguments to bury me.

and if I were town, why would I false-claim CT?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Barbiero
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Brazil5259 Posts
January 16 2012 22:20 GMT
#2029
Lol if BH is faking this, then either Spaackle was the CT or the Demons hit the seer/an angel with the corruption.

Nah, it's more likely that BH is the CT.
♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥
Jackal58
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4264 Posts
January 16 2012 22:25 GMT
#2030
On January 17 2012 07:15 Blazinghand wrote:
Ok, fair enough. Do you believe there is a way to communicate the the demons via vote movement that can benefit us today? If so, what is that? I'll do that instead.

If you don't think this can help us find angels, why?

Yes I think if you were confirmed townie this play would be brilliant in rooting out angels. Unfortunately the only confirmed player in the game so far is Palmar. And he's not going to help us unless somebody has a Ouija board.
Life can only kill you once.
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
January 16 2012 22:25 GMT
#2031
Why would the demon hunter kill a player based on the belief that they are a corrupted town?
If you are a corrupted town: You might have a blue role
You count against the Angels win condition
The demons will only have 2-4 votes tomorrow (its slightly possible they are all dead but very unlikely)
You can investigate players and get dark or not dark.
You are a town aligned force in the thread
+killing you would not kill a demon + it would not hit and fail against an angel

Why would the demons give up their information advantage and hand town the win?

Your play has had major flaws that i am sure will be highlighted post-game, you could be doing anything as town for a whole host of barely-reasons.
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:27 GMT
#2032
"only" 2-4 votes tomorrow? are you an idiot? there are gonna be like 7 people alive tomorrow.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:29 GMT
#2033
like, you understand that tomorrow there might be 7 people and 4 demon-controlled votes if we don't kill me or a demon tonight, right? that the demons could just brutally crap all over town and angels if we don't do something about it?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Barbiero
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Brazil5259 Posts
January 16 2012 22:30 GMT
#2034
Well, if the demons help us here, we lynch Angels. They don't have to hand over ALL information, only a part of it. They don't have to show themselves. Just a little piece of information, via anonymous communication, that helps us killing Angels, which is good for them.

TBH with Spaackle flipping VT, I have no idea who could be Demon. Maybe you, layabout, but just as you may be Demon so can Jackal, Dirkzor or anyone else. So... yeah.
♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:31 GMT
#2035
Look, here's why demons should do this and why town should do this:

unless an angel dies today, angels win like 90%.

both the demon faction and town want to lynch an angel. All the demons have to do is put my vote on an angel and we'll know what's up. then, the demon hunter can kill a demon or myself, or the demon hunter and the last angel can split fire, one of them killing me and one killing a demon, or something. The point is, this is the best chance for town, and there's no reason for demons not to help.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
layabout
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom2600 Posts
January 16 2012 22:39 GMT
#2036
in a 3 faction game each faction plays to their own win condition or faces the banlist.

if you are asking the demons to help town win instead of letting the angels win, the demons will not acheive their win condition either way.

so why would they help you?
it isn't in their interest.

GUYS IT ISN'T TO LATE TO USE BEHAVIOURAL ANALYSIS.
Be the Best You Can Be ! Play MAFIA II http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/ II Dragonsound Best Band
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:41 GMT
#2037
layabout you indeed are a moron.

look, we need to lynch an angel today or else angels win. Demons OR town both need this to happen.

I see now reason why we wouldn't work together to do this. The fact of the matter is, the goals of Demon and town are the same during this specific moment in time. They will diverge as soon as the night begins since we'll need to start killing demons and CTs, but the point is, unless we kill an angel, they're probably gonna win.

do you deny this?
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:42 GMT
#2038
Like, if the demons help us lynch the AoD or whatever, yes they will lose the CT via getting shot by someone probably or maybe lose a demon, but on the other hand, this is better than the alternative, which is entering day 5 with an extra angel. Better an angel gets lynched than a demon or VT if you are a demon...
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25552 Posts
January 16 2012 22:43 GMT
#2039
Actually, maybe you aren't a moron, layabout. maybe you're an angel.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
Grackaroni
Profile Joined July 2011
United States9846 Posts
January 16 2012 22:49 GMT
#2040
Why don't the demons just reveal RoL's flip, it will help us make a better decision and help you're team overall. You guys want an angel lynch just as badly as we do, use BH to vote on Tyrran if he was channeler, Use BH to vote on dirkzor if he was scum
That way we know for sure whether we need to lynch HoD or not.
A mislynch is BAD for your team today, give us the information and we can avoid it.

Communicating with the demons via corrupted townies is allowed right?
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