TL Mafia 'Area' LIII - Page 10

On April 21 2012 10:22 Mementoss wrote:


It seems like a waste to go through things that possibly aren't even in the game. Also I'm just saying that say a scum could give an opinions towards the town that directs blue in a way that doesn't benefit town.

I'm not sure of the best course of action towards vig. Im trying to think why a scum would want to claim vig. If there goon and they get tracked they are going to get killed. If they are GF they just bring attention to themselves. I guess they could claim a shot that didn't go through as there would be no counter claim and try to kill an innocent townie by making them look like a mafia. But its a suicide plan.

VE says kill all claimed vig shots, or tracked vig shots. On the face this seems scummy as you might kill a town. But I think it is a reasonable point. If you kill a claimed shot, you have at least a 40% (if 3 vigs 2 GF) chance of hitting scum, but it is more likely 50%(2 vigs 2 GF) or 66%(1 vig 2 GF). That is assuming a townie wouldnt be stupid enough to lie and fake the claim. The only problem is we really can't verify if we killed scum or not.

But this might scare real vigs away from claiming shots. Sooo not sure what to do. Lol.

So to fake-claim, scum have to choose between:
-Being protected from trackers, but not creating confusion if they ever get lynched, and having to rely on JK's to claim their shots
or
-Creating confusion if they ever get lynched, but not relying on JK's to claim their shots, nor being protected from trackers.

On April 21 2012 10:37 gonzaw wrote:



If mafia claim vig, and claim to shoot a target, and then do so with their own KP, this can happen:

• The Goon claimed vig, and he uses his KP to shoot his claimed target: Then he wastes his other KP. If he was real vig, then there would be an additional KP, but in this case there isn't. In this case he HAS to claim that the target of scum's KP got Jailed, which can bring problems to him depending on the real JKs, for instance if there is no JK he's fucked).
  In this case, a tracker on him will watch him visit his claimed target
  Also, in this case (if a tracker tracks him), they can't "shoot" someone, claim their shot failed and say his target was GF, because the tracker will instantly know it's bullshit.
  
• The GF claimed vig and he uses his KP to shoot his claimed target: Same as above, but only the Goon will use his KP. So if a tracker tracks him, he will know he didn't shoot his target and will know he's scum.
  

I guess this means that maybe the GF's won't fake-claim vig, and the Goons will instead? In that case, if we ever lynch him, he will flip Goon and we will know 100% that he was scum when he's lynched.
If he was GF and we lynched him, since he would flip GF we wouldn't be 100% sure he was scum.

So to fake-claim, scum have to choose between:
-Being protected from trackers, but not creating confusion if they ever get lynched, nor having to rely on JK's to claim their shots
or
-Creating confusion if they ever get lynched, but not relying on JK's to claim their shots, nor being protected from trackers.

The point is that they have to choose, they HAVE to do something. We will force them to react to our plans, and hopefully they fuck up their plans/fake-claims and we catch them easily.

On April 21 2012 10:40 MidnightGladius wrote:
Gonzaw, GFs don't have KP. I'm currently writing out a more detailed reply to your plan (I think it's a good idea), but I wanted to make that clear now.

On April 21 2012 10:37 Mementoss wrote:
So just to clarify gonzaw are you saying vigs should claim day 1. Cause if thats so, all shots would need to go off night 1 or mafia would probably just take them all out, maybe they would leave them in to keep the GF flips confusing. It seems like it could be risky shooting into townies without a lot of information, on night 1. But you bring up a lot of good points.

On April 21 2012 10:43 Mementoss wrote:
I think your messing up here Goon would never claim vig. He would need to claim hitting a godfather, then we lynch that person they come up not godfather and we half the mafia KP. Or he says jailkeeper saved the shot, then jailkeeper could counter claim. Or we could just kill the vig claimer right there.

Also GF does not have KP. He will need to claim hitting a GF, or jailkeeper. Then we do the same as above.
I really see no reason to fake claim as mafia, unless its a special late game circumstance.

On April 21 2012 10:49 PaqMan wrote:
I like Gonzaw's idea of the vig's claiming. Only problem with that is that Scum will have a list of vig's and won't have to do any sniping..
So now that I think about it, I don't really like that idea at all lol.

Town can't keep assuming things this game. It'll make an ass out of u and me. We don't know how many of what roles there are and continuous speculation isn't going to help at all.

On April 21 2012 10:49 PaqMan wrote:
I like Gonzaw's idea of the vig's claiming. Only problem with that is that Scum will have a list of vig's and won't have to do any sniping..
So now that I think about it, I don't really like that idea at all lol.

Town can't keep assuming things this game. It'll make an ass out of u and me. We don't know how many of what roles there are and continuous speculation isn't going to help at all.

On April 21 2012 10:49 PaqMan wrote:
I like Gonzaw's idea of the vig's claiming. Only problem with that is that Scum will have a list of vig's and won't have to do any sniping..
So now that I think about it, I don't really like that idea at all lol.

Town can't keep assuming things this game. It'll make an ass out of u and me. We don't know how many of what roles there are and continuous speculation isn't going to help at all.

On April 21 2012 10:55 johnnywup wrote:

it's actually in scums best interest to keep millervigs alive, as they create so much confusion which is usually scums job. All scum would have to do is make sure the vigs are on the wrong track.

So because of this VE's plan of killing all vig's isn't a bad idea. But no vig's would ever claim under it. I think the best course of action is lynching any vig claims the day after, if they miss their shot. Scum wouldn't ever claim if we make a rule out of that.

Also this isn't continuous speculation, this is discussing the game. Don't like it? Too bad. It's not like we can avoid this topic. It's important to the game so we talk about it.

On April 21 2012 11:05 gonzaw wrote:
Okay, one more thing and I'll stop posting now (just want to get everything out in the open as soon as possible)




VE's plan is to kill all claimed vigs.
This means that no real vig will claim, and no scum will fake-claim either.

So what happens if we lynch someone and he flips GF then? What info would you get in that case? He could be either vig or GF and we don't know since no vig or GF would have claimed (since they would have been instantly lynched).

Imagine it's LYLO, we are trying to lynch someone, and he claims vig. What do we do? Do we follow the "lynch all vigs" rule too? But if he is indeed vig we would lose, so what to do?

If we follow our plan, we will know beforehand that there are certain players whose flip won't tell us anything (the claimed vigs, assuming no Goons claim). We will know what to do with that, we can prepare. We can also use other claimed vigs to try and shoot him at night instead.
The most important thing is that if vigs claim beforehand, there will be less chaos than if they claimed right before getting lynched, or they were lynched and flipped GF

And remember, if there's chaos scum can do whatever the hell they want. If someone claims vig right before being lynched the chaos created basically gives scum the reins to do what they want (either lynch that vig, or lynch someone else, or NL, etc)

On April 21 2012 11:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Holy Gonzaw Post] +

Scum start off with an information advantage. Any plan that involves giving information to scum (like, who all the vigs in the game are) is a net loss for town 100% of the time. I'll address your points individually, for ease of comprehension.

1) There are no roleblockers, therefore a claimed blue will be able to use his ability at night no matter what

This is untrue. A claimed blue will PROBABLY get to use his ability at night, but he'll fail if a JK jails him.

2) If said vig ever gets lynched, he will flip GF. If he doesn't claim at all, or claims vig right before getting lynched, then it will instill confusion about whether he was actually GF or not.

That confusion isn't alleviated by all vigs claiming. He's still going to flip GF whether he's a vig or a fake-claiming GF and him claiming isn't going to make that any easier to unravel (especially if either of the GFs claim vig too.)

3) If all vigs claim beforehand, we will KNOW that they will flip GF, so the confusion about their flip is removed.

This doesn't say anything and is patently untrue - we're still not going to know if they're a fake-claiming GF or a vig. Claiming doesn't change this at all. Period.

0 for 3 so far...I hope this starts going better sir...

4) It will force the GFs to claim vig as well. Why? Because if all vigs claim, but then a vig claims that he shot someone, but that someone doesn't die, if the first player is confirmed vig, then the second player is CONFIRMED GODFATHER. If GFs want to avoid that situation, they will have to claim vig.

This is also not true. If a vig claims a shot and the person doesn't die, then that person MIGHT be a Godfather, or that person MIGHT have been protected via jailing, or the VIG HIMSELF might have been roleblocked by jailing. You're making assumptions and labeling them as facts and they're all bad Gonzaw.

5) If all vigs claim, since there isn't any roleblocker, they will be free to shoot anybody they want. If there is town consensus on who to shoot, said vigs could take that into account to shoot lurkers/scummy people of their choice at night. Even if vigs want to shoot anybody in particular, they don't need to hide that info since scum can't RB him, so they can just discuss with town about said player and he can say he will shoot him in advance.

Vigs are free to shoot anybody they want anyway and them all claiming has NOTHING TO DO WITH THAT. This isn't a point in favor of claiming, it's repeating information redundantly and padding your post. I'm almost done, I hope...

6) This previous arrangement with Town-Vigs will make is to that Jailkeepers DON'T jail those players that vigs said they would shoot. That way the JK's power isn't wasted (and could cause confusion if he succesfully saves a vig shot, but doesn't claim (i.e people will think the target is GF)). Also, since scum is less likely to shoot vig targets, it means that the JK has a smaller pool of players to choose from, and has a higher chance of saving a scum KP at night

This is like, the only thing I can even make any sense of. If town agrees to a mass-vig-claim, then I'd have to agree that JK's keep their grubby hands off chosen vig targets. The only thing I don't agree with here is the bolded statement. It assumes that claimed vigs are all town (because if the claimed Vig is scum, scum will HAVE to shoot that vig target, no?) and only limits the pool of players to choose from if JKs agree with the notion of keeping their hands off vig targets (which I don't want to assume...too many assumptions.)

7) If a vig were to claim a target at night, and said target doesn't die, either the vig is a GF/Goon in disguise, or his target is GF. Meaning we have a confirmed scum in either of those 2, and can lynch either of them

Again, you're discounting the possibility of a JK interfering. This is an untrue statement about the information we'd get from the flip (or lack of flip) skewed in favor of vigs claiming.

8) Vigilantes can shoot each other as well if they think there was a fake-claim. It follows just like a normal kill.
If one vig shoots another claimed vig, then if the vig was a real claim, he will flip GF. If he was Goon he will flip Goon, and if he was GF he won't flip (creating the same situation as above).

AGAIN WITH THE DISCOUNTING OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A JK

9) If GF claims vig, then they can't shoot on their own. They either need to "No-Kill" 1 KP and claim it's theirs, while claiming that the scum KP got saved by a JK, or claim their target is GF. Both are bad for scum (they have to give info they wouldn't have wanted to give otherwise) and good for us if we use the information wisely.

I'm honestly not even sure what this point is trying to say. It's true that GFs can't kill to corroborate their story - but there's nothing preventing a GOON from fake-claiming vig, especially since they wouldn't have to worry about trackers. Also, scum aren't "giving us info" by lying about what happened - they're introducing WIFOM.

10) If scum are complacent (they don't fake-claim, or do so but don't make other plans, etc) then we'll have a small circle (or even 1) of town-vigs to our disposal and we can do whatever we want, and most likely obliterate scum (based on the previous points too)

Having a claimed 1-shot vig doesn't do anything to help us "obliterate scum". Even if only 1 town vig claims, how does that narrow anything down? Are we just automatically assuming the claim is good? Are we giving dude a pass? Why wouldn't scum fake-claim when you put it that way?

Ultimately, I dislike the notion - and your post has only reinforced that sentiment for my part.