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On February 05 2024 18:18 Blargh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 17:58 Luolis wrote:On February 05 2024 17:12 Balnazza wrote:On February 05 2024 15:24 Luolis wrote:On February 05 2024 15:00 Balnazza wrote:On February 05 2024 11:18 Blargh wrote:On February 05 2024 10:11 Antithesis wrote:On February 05 2024 08:55 yubo56 wrote:
SC2 has been out since 2010. Imagine that somebody wins every single tournament until 2022; we can pretend this is Fruitdealer. Then a second player comes onto the scene and wins everything from 2022-present, who we can pretend is Harstem. Suppose that the head-to-head is heavily in favor of Harstem, who has a significantly positive head-to-head vs Fruitdealer and everybody else in the scene. Who would you call the GOAT here? I agree that head-to-head record or overall ranking is not the sole criterion for the GoaT; in my view, it's just, almost by definition, the most important one. But surely other criteria are relevant, too. One such criterion, as you imply, is the duration of dominance; another one is the ratio between that figure to the overall time active in competitive play. But this leads to the second thing: The hypothetical scenario is not faithful to reality anyway, because Serral's dominance has not occured over a tiny fraction of the game's lifetime; it has persisted for the most part of more than six years, which is almost half of the age of SCII. Furthermore, Serral has been more consistent in his results than any other player who has ever touched the game. So even the other two aforementioned criteria do not challenge Serral's status. I think you're being silly about this. Serral was effectively not relevant for any of the MOST COMPETITIVE era of the game (2012 to 2016). He couldn't even have a head to head with Maru for years because he was never even competitive enough to face him until 2016, with their first match being 2018, despite being a player since at least 2012. You are forcefully ignoring the fact that Serral sucked for 4 years, only becoming top-tier in LotV. Maru on the other hand had been a relevant player for almost his entire career and almost the entire length of the game. The head to head actually doesn't matter when they hadn't even faced each other for 7 years of the game. After all, according to head-to-head, Welmu is better than Serral. Serral is still amazing. I don't think anyone is going to argue against that. But it's ridiculous to say you only get graded for the time you were good at the game and not the years you were bad when we're talking about all time. The first year Serral went fulltime pro, he literally crushed everyone and became World Champion. That's what is important. Comparing the numbers before that is really like saying "Lol, LeBron James did throw his first basket with 10 and couldn't beat any NBA player, what a loser" Not true. Serral went fulltime in 2017, and did not manage to win any notable tournaments in that year. It is not only a "cultural difference" - you simply couldn't go pro with 13 in Europe. Not possible, neither legally nor economically. This is related to my post.... how? I think it was semi-relevant to both mine and yours, since I was discussing the cultural / legal differences that may have allowed Maru to play in GSL, but not allow Serral to compete. Though I do believe Maru was still going to school through 2012-13. Its relevancy to yours is simply that he wouldn't have been able to go fulltime before 2017. Clearly, both competed in tournaments during that time, but I think it's safe to say the environment in Korea made it more accessible for kids to play video games competitively. Anyway, I don't really know how one balances whether someone played during an era, or their inability to due to X circumstances, or whatever. Since Serral still competed (including WCS), I'm assuming he was able to compete in everything, and the only thing that stopped him from winning WCS Finals in 2013 was his inability to perform. There obviously are valid reasons for why he wasn't able to perform at the Korean level then, like the fact that he was a kid in Europe without team houses and Korean esport culture. But no one gets evaluated on what one could've hypothetically done if the circumstances were different. One can only get evaluated on how they actually do. I think the argument between Maru and Serral really comes down to how much one weights being good in the HotS era vs the LotV era. Maru has been close to the best in both, but Serral has been definitively the best for LotV alone.
I was simply correcting your statement of "Serral immediately won everything after going fulltime". It took him like a year and a half to become the dominant powerhouse we know now aftre going fulltime.
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On February 05 2024 17:58 Luolis wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 17:12 Balnazza wrote:On February 05 2024 15:24 Luolis wrote:On February 05 2024 15:00 Balnazza wrote:On February 05 2024 11:18 Blargh wrote:On February 05 2024 10:11 Antithesis wrote:On February 05 2024 08:55 yubo56 wrote:
SC2 has been out since 2010. Imagine that somebody wins every single tournament until 2022; we can pretend this is Fruitdealer. Then a second player comes onto the scene and wins everything from 2022-present, who we can pretend is Harstem. Suppose that the head-to-head is heavily in favor of Harstem, who has a significantly positive head-to-head vs Fruitdealer and everybody else in the scene. Who would you call the GOAT here? I agree that head-to-head record or overall ranking is not the sole criterion for the GoaT; in my view, it's just, almost by definition, the most important one. But surely other criteria are relevant, too. One such criterion, as you imply, is the duration of dominance; another one is the ratio between that figure to the overall time active in competitive play. But this leads to the second thing: The hypothetical scenario is not faithful to reality anyway, because Serral's dominance has not occured over a tiny fraction of the game's lifetime; it has persisted for the most part of more than six years, which is almost half of the age of SCII. Furthermore, Serral has been more consistent in his results than any other player who has ever touched the game. So even the other two aforementioned criteria do not challenge Serral's status. I think you're being silly about this. Serral was effectively not relevant for any of the MOST COMPETITIVE era of the game (2012 to 2016). He couldn't even have a head to head with Maru for years because he was never even competitive enough to face him until 2016, with their first match being 2018, despite being a player since at least 2012. You are forcefully ignoring the fact that Serral sucked for 4 years, only becoming top-tier in LotV. Maru on the other hand had been a relevant player for almost his entire career and almost the entire length of the game. The head to head actually doesn't matter when they hadn't even faced each other for 7 years of the game. After all, according to head-to-head, Welmu is better than Serral. Serral is still amazing. I don't think anyone is going to argue against that. But it's ridiculous to say you only get graded for the time you were good at the game and not the years you were bad when we're talking about all time. The first year Serral went fulltime pro, he literally crushed everyone and became World Champion. That's what is important. Comparing the numbers before that is really like saying "Lol, LeBron James did throw his first basket with 10 and couldn't beat any NBA player, what a loser" Not true. Serral went fulltime in 2017, and did not manage to win any notable tournaments in that year. It is not only a "cultural difference" - you simply couldn't go pro with 13 in Europe. Not possible, neither legally nor economically. This is related to my post.... how?
It is relevant in terms of "I completly fucked up my post"...sorry! The point I wanted to make (and then managed to not make...) in regards to your post was that I assume Serral finished school in mid-2017, so I still think it is fair to say that 2018 was his first real year as a fulltime pro.
I think the argument between Maru and Serral really comes down to how much one weights being good in the HotS era vs the LotV era. Maru has been close to the best in both, but Serral has been definitively the best for LotV alone.
I would agree with that statement, but for me (and that is our difference in opinion to the core I guess) this isn't a good thing. What you are basically saying is that Maru was never No.1. Not once was he for a longer period of time regarded as THE best. And in my book, that is something you would need (together with a World Championship/"biggest title") to be the GOAT.
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As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era.
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France13011 Posts
On top of that, Serral rose to prominence when Zerg was the strongest race by far, if you are a top Zerg, it’s expected to have positive h2h records vs P/T players.
Since Serral wasn’t good enough to meet Maru in the earlier years, we couldn’t see how he fared in less favorable metas. On the other hand, Maru has been the last Terran / Terran savior / Terran hope many years already
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Northern Ireland27252 Posts
Serral has a winning head to head against like, literally everyone of note, bar some quirks from early in his career.
If Maru is demotivated and burnt out, it seems incongruous with him winning the majority of his titles in this era. And if we’re arguing that the competition level has dropped so Maru’s still doing that despite not being as motivated, well why’s Serral the cutoff?
He’s got a damn good record against most others, and is maintaining a positive win/loss in H2H against basically all of the relevant field of current top level players.
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On February 05 2024 21:05 WombaT wrote:
Serral has a winning head to head against like, literally everyone of note, bar some quirks from early in his career.
If Maru is demotivated and burnt out, it seems incongruous with him winning the majority of his titles in this era. And if we’re arguing that the competition level has dropped so Maru’s still doing that despite not being as motivated, well why’s Serral the cutoff?
He’s got a damn good record against most others, and is maintaining a positive win/loss in H2H against basically all of the relevant field of current top level players.
Well, it's just way easier to win titles in this era and all the other koreans are also effected by the decline as most koreans are active at least just as long as Maru. Personally I don't think he was worse in 2013-2015 compared to 2019-now (2018 was his peak), it was just way harder to win titles back then.
That's another argument (the biggest imo) against Serral being the Goat, that the majority of other Goat contenders are either retired or declined by now, and there's just not much competition left in this era
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My predictions:
#5 MVP
#4 Innovation
#3 Rogue
#2 Serral
#1 Maru
However, if Serral wins Katowice, beating Maru along the side, I'm going to switch #1 and #2.
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Canada8990 Posts
On February 05 2024 20:46 Charoisaur wrote:
As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era.
Becoming less motivated is a pretty silly argument to use. We're discusing a GOAT list, being motivated is a pretty freaking important element. He just has to stay motivated if he want to be the best.
That's like saying Soulkey is better than Rogue but he just got tired of SC2.
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Northern Ireland27252 Posts
On February 05 2024 21:14 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 21:05 WombaT wrote:
Serral has a winning head to head against like, literally everyone of note, bar some quirks from early in his career.
If Maru is demotivated and burnt out, it seems incongruous with him winning the majority of his titles in this era. And if we’re arguing that the competition level has dropped so Maru’s still doing that despite not being as motivated, well why’s Serral the cutoff?
He’s got a damn good record against most others, and is maintaining a positive win/loss in H2H against basically all of the relevant field of current top level players. Well, it's just way easier to win titles in this era and all the other koreans are also effected by the decline as most koreans are active at least just as long as Maru. Personally I don't think he was worse in 2013-2015 compared to 2019-now (2018 was his peak), it was just way harder to win titles back then. That's another argument (the biggest imo) against Serral being the Goat, that the majority of other Goat contenders are either retired or declined by now, and there's just not much competition left in this era
Surely if you’ve got to the top of a niche, not particularly transferable profession, that’s quite lucrative to you, and the level has dropped considerably, and said profession is contracting pretty visibly that’s motivation to cash in while you can? Or grabbing a WC to solidify a legacy.
I know that’s not the entirety of how motivation works, it is at least somewhat part of it though. The old Alexander wept for he realised there were no more worlds left to conquer and all that.
The same excuses were made for Maru when SC2 was absolutely at its competitive peak too. Oh he doesn’t like travel, oh he’s prioritising Proleague and Starleagues over weekenders, that’s why he doesn’t do much there.
It just feels very pick and choosy to me, always has.
He didn’t actually win a huge amount until he went on his quadruple, and partly why Inno used to place above him in such discussions, and which coincided with Serral going into monster mode himself.
So if Maru’s achievements in said span are elevating him into GOAT consideration, it seems odd to discount Serral’s having a winning H2H against him in the same period, or indeed against basically everyone
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On February 05 2024 21:31 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 20:46 Charoisaur wrote:
As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era. Becoming less motivated is a pretty silly argument to use. We're discusing a GOAT list, being motivated is a pretty freaking important element. He just has to stay motivated if he want to be the best. That's like saying Soulkey is better than Rogue but he just got tired of SC2.
"Just stay more motivated"
Federer has a pretty terrible record against Djokovic in the last 5 years, I guess he's out of the Goat conversation
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Northern Ireland27252 Posts
On February 05 2024 21:31 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 20:46 Charoisaur wrote:
As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era. Becoming less motivated is a pretty silly argument to use. We're discusing a GOAT list, being motivated is a pretty freaking important element. He just has to stay motivated if he want to be the best. That's like saying Soulkey is better than Rogue but he just got tired of SC2.
Yeah imagine if Inno had stayed motivated. Thing is it’s just imagination as he clearly didn’t
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Northern Ireland27252 Posts
On February 05 2024 21:33 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 21:31 Nakajin wrote:On February 05 2024 20:46 Charoisaur wrote:
As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era. Becoming less motivated is a pretty silly argument to use. We're discusing a GOAT list, being motivated is a pretty freaking important element. He just has to stay motivated if he want to be the best. That's like saying Soulkey is better than Rogue but he just got tired of SC2. "Just stay more motivated" Federer has a pretty terrible record against Djokovic in the last 5 years, I guess he's out of the Goat conversation
Federer is a good few years older than Djokovic, and latterly had some pretty consistent injury issues in a very physical sport.
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Comparing someone in the twilight of his career vs someone in the peak of his career is just not fair.
By the same logic I could say "Why wasn't Serral as good as Maru before 2018 - he's not the Goat".
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Why are we choosing the timeframe post-2018 to compare Maru and Serral and not pre-2018.
Because they didn't play.
But if they had played the record would've favored Maru, which is the problem with comparing players which peaks didn't exactly align.
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On February 05 2024 21:38 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 21:33 Charoisaur wrote:On February 05 2024 21:31 Nakajin wrote:On February 05 2024 20:46 Charoisaur wrote:
As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era. Becoming less motivated is a pretty silly argument to use. We're discusing a GOAT list, being motivated is a pretty freaking important element. He just has to stay motivated if he want to be the best. That's like saying Soulkey is better than Rogue but he just got tired of SC2. "Just stay more motivated" Federer has a pretty terrible record against Djokovic in the last 5 years, I guess he's out of the Goat conversation Federer is a good few years older than Djokovic, and latterly had some pretty consistent injury issues in a very physical sport.
But the results are there and Federer did poorly. The rest is just imagination
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Northern Ireland27252 Posts
On February 05 2024 21:41 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 21:38 WombaT wrote:On February 05 2024 21:33 Charoisaur wrote:On February 05 2024 21:31 Nakajin wrote:On February 05 2024 20:46 Charoisaur wrote:
As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era. Becoming less motivated is a pretty silly argument to use. We're discusing a GOAT list, being motivated is a pretty freaking important element. He just has to stay motivated if he want to be the best. That's like saying Soulkey is better than Rogue but he just got tired of SC2. "Just stay more motivated" Federer has a pretty terrible record against Djokovic in the last 5 years, I guess he's out of the Goat conversation Federer is a good few years older than Djokovic, and latterly had some pretty consistent injury issues in a very physical sport. But the results are there and Federer did poorly. The rest is just imagination
Federer was approaching his 40s in a physically demanding sport. There’s only so much you can stretch the body to do ultimately.
Maru and Serral are very close in age, in a much less physically demanding endeavour. It’s a stretch to compare Federer’s H2Hs slipping in his golden years to that dynamic. Hell that Federer was even running into Djokovic in tournaments at an age well beyond most pros had long, long retired is a testament to how good he was.
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On February 05 2024 21:48 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2024 21:41 Charoisaur wrote:On February 05 2024 21:38 WombaT wrote:On February 05 2024 21:33 Charoisaur wrote:On February 05 2024 21:31 Nakajin wrote:On February 05 2024 20:46 Charoisaur wrote:
As I already said in another thread, using Serral's head to head record against Maru as proof he's the better player is imo very disingenous as Maru had already 7-8 years of his career behind him when Serral became relevant. After 8 years of fulltime-competition it's much more likely to burn out and become less motivated and Maru also had to deal with injuries etc, whereas Serral was able to spend all his peak years in the post-2017 era. Becoming less motivated is a pretty silly argument to use. We're discusing a GOAT list, being motivated is a pretty freaking important element. He just has to stay motivated if he want to be the best. That's like saying Soulkey is better than Rogue but he just got tired of SC2. "Just stay more motivated" Federer has a pretty terrible record against Djokovic in the last 5 years, I guess he's out of the Goat conversation Federer is a good few years older than Djokovic, and latterly had some pretty consistent injury issues in a very physical sport. But the results are there and Federer did poorly. The rest is just imagination Federer was approaching his 40s in a physically demanding sport. There’s only so much you can stretch the body to do ultimately. Maru and Serral are very close in age, in a much less physically demanding endeavour. It’s a stretch to compare Federer’s H2Hs slipping in his golden years to that dynamic. Hell that Federer was even running into Djokovic in tournaments at an age well beyond most pros had long, long retired is a testament to how good he was.
Well, maybe it's even more obvious than the Maru-Serral case, but I don't think anyone can disagree that the circumstances of Maru and Serral facing each other, favored Serral, even if it's by a slight degree
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To me, head-to-head is the LAST thing we should consider when everything else are close enough. Whatever the record is between Serral and Maru, they have never played enough in heavy-weight matches throughout their careers. Most of Serral win vs Maru are in non-premiere /group stage outside of IEM 2022 Ro8, and Maru beat him once in WESG semi-final. The rest are Serral-favored by a large margin, but that would not mean anything much IF Maru was to beat him in the coming IEM (huge IF) imo.
I am a fan of the NFL, and it effing annoy me when people say Mahomes can ever catch Brady as GOAT because he lost to him twice before Brady retired. So if Mahomes win 6-7 more SB he still have no chance because of the head-to-head? Thats just crazy talk and people are better than this.
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The best year for Maru was 2018. Which was also Serral's best year. Serral won 2 tourneys in which Maru played that year, GSL vs the World and WCS World title. Maru won none in which Serral played that year. Briefly prior to that, Maru won WESG.
They have very similar achievement in their peak, although i see Serral having a bit of an edge, for having 2 premier against 1 of Maru (in that time span) in which both played.
Aaaand Serral is in Maru's nemesis list in Aligulac, which contemplates their all time encounters...
This H2H comparison makes sense for me cus theyre are almost indisputable number 1 and 2 GOAT, after analyzing their all time achievements against all other players.
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On February 06 2024 02:03 Locutos wrote:
The best year for Maru was 2018. Which was also Serral's best year. Serral won 2 tourneys in which Maru played that year, GSL vs the World and WCS World title. Maru won none in which Serral played that year. Briefly prior to that, Maru won WESG.
They have very similar achievement in their peak, although i see Serral having a bit of an edge, for having 2 premier against 1 of Maru (in that time span) in which both played.
Aaaand Serral is in Maru's nemesis list in Aligulac, which contemplates their all time encounters...
This H2H comparison makes sense for me cus theyre are almost indisputable number 1 and 2 GOAT, after analyzing their all time achievements against all other players.
Maru's best year may have been 2018 but it wasn't the only year where he did well. He already had 2 premier titles, a bunch of top 4s, and his proleague record prior. This is why h2h doesn't make sense to me, because we're just ignoring all the success he previously had, such success that may I add was why he was already known as the 4th race. It's not maru's fault serral wasn't competitive prior to 2018. Otherwise you're just creating a scenario where you're putting serral in his best light but not doing the same to maru
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EPT
