Which region will win IEM Katowice 2023? - Page 2

On February 01 2023 13:09 kochanfe wrote:
My super-scientific-not-at-all-subjective-or-in-any-way-pulled-straight-out-of-my-ass impression, not having watched much SC2 over the last few months would be maybe something like:

23% – Serral
23% – Maru
12% – herO
12% – Reynor
12% – Dark
6% – Clem
5% – ByuN
4% – Solar
2% – Bunny
1% – Someone Else

So I guess a bit under 60% Korea, a bit over 40% Europe, and considerably less than 1% Other?

On February 01 2023 13:09 kochanfe wrote:
My super-scientific-not-at-all-subjective-or-in-any-way-pulled-straight-out-of-my-ass impression, not having watched much SC2 over the last few months would be maybe something like:

23% – Serral
23% – Maru
12% – herO
12% – Reynor
12% – Dark
6% – Clem
5% – ByuN
4% – Solar
2% – Bunny
1% – Someone Else

So I guess a bit under 60% Korea, a bit over 40% Europe, and considerably less than 1% Other?

On February 08 2023 06:19 angry_maia wrote:


I like this prediction style -- I'll give my probabilities. I mostly agree, but i think you are underrating Reynor, Dark, and overrating herO.

My reasoning is that herO is sorta like a 50/50 against any elite player -- I would not be surprised to see anyone of (Maru, Serral, Clem, HeroMarine, Dark, Reynor, Byun, Bunny) knock him out, and i would be roughty as unsurprised to see him win. For this reason, assuming a ro12, he's got a roughly 1/16 chance of winning (assuming he gets elite players). However, ro8 gives him a 1/8 chance So I put him somewhere in the middle to get a bit below 10%.

The key difference for Reynor, Serral, Dark, over Hero is that I'd strongly favor them over the likes of HeroMarine, Bunny, or Byun. To me, their only threats are a super on form Clem (who I just cannot trust to make deep runs in these tournaments until I see it), herO, and Maru. And these are all players who might get eliminated before being able to face the zergs (except Maru, who i think is pretty safe).

25% – Serral
20% – Reynor
20% – Maru
15% – Dark
9% – herO
5% – ByuN
2% – Clem
2% – Bunny
1% – Solar
1% – Someone Else

On February 08 2023 07:09 dysenterymd wrote:


I think you're underrating herO's odds against people like Clem/HM/Byun/Bunny, while I think he's more likely to be upset by one of those than the other top players, I wouldn't give any of those players more than a 1/3 chance of beating him.

My odds are

25% Serral
20% Reynor
20% Dark
15% herO
10% Maru
10% someone else (if someone outside of the top 5 wins my guess is Solar or Bunny. )

herO over Maru is because herO's been more clutch at offline international tournaments.

Nice idea, here are my odds:
Serral 40%
Dark 20%
Reynor 15%
Maru 10%
herO 5%
Clem 3%
Bunny 3%
Solar 2%
DRG 2%
I would be very surprised to see a non zerg win this event, but I will still be hopeful until the end!

On February 08 2023 07:46 angry_maia wrote:



Aligulac sees herO vs Gabe as a 55/45 favored for herO, and lately herO has been getting his butt kicked by Byun. He also had a super tight series against Bunny. Of course, offline tournaments are different, so I can see you rating herO better than aligulac suggests.

However, I think putting him above Maru is a mistake -- exactly which players do you think herO has better chances against than Maru? I think Maru would destroy Clem/Hm/Byun/Bunny a lot more convincingly than herO, and maru's tvp is definitely good enough to smash anyone that isn't herO. Perhaps herO has a slight edge against the zergs, but Maru is pretty good there too.

On February 08 2023 10:25 dysenterymd wrote:


I think herO has a much better chance at beating Serral than Maru does, but they probably have similar odds against Reynor/Dark.

I don't disagree with any of your arguments, I just think Maru typically hasn't played to his full potential in world championship events, which is why I'd give herO the edge if I were betting.

On February 13 2023 06:05 Waxangel wrote:
congrats 10 percenters