DreamHack StarCraft 2 Masters: Winter Group Stages
by Wax
The final DreamHack Masters Season of 2020 is set to begin!
This season may bring us some of the fiercest competition yet, with the Masters Championship at IEM Katowice 2021 now looming over the horizon. While there are still ESL Weekly Cups remaining, while there's still a "To be announced" EPT global event in January, and while there may still be some 3rd party tournaments to come, this is still a unique chance for players to earn a big chunk of ESL Pro Tour points in one go (and, let's face it, only a few non-Korean players can really earn points at a global event).
Europe, in particular, seems like it will feature a bloody frenzy for points, as it's paramount for mid-ranked players to perform well in this tournament if they're to secure a spot at IEM Katowice (reminder: the new EPT system awards IEM Katowice spots per-region, so a player's point ranking inside their region is what matters, not their overall rank).
*Top four from each group advance to double-elimination playoffs
Already, it seems inevitable that we're going to have some intense, do-or-die matches for EPT points in the playoffs. Europe may be the deepest SC2 region aside from Korea, but only seven players can earn spots at IEM Katowice 2021. The current top seven is as follows: Reynor, Serral, Clem, HeroMarine, ShowTimE, uThermal, and MaNa/PtitDrogo (tie).
While it seems safe to say the top three players are secure in their spots, the history of European competition tells us just about anything could happen further down the rankings. Remember WCS Montreal 2018, and that desperate five-way BlizzCon race between Nerchio, Lambo, uThermal, Reynor, and Elazer?
Given the remaining ESL Open Cups and the potential for third party events that award points (a winter HomeStory Cup has been a fixture of competitive SC2 for a while now), the standings at the end of this season of DH Europe won't have that same sense of finality. But for now, everyone has reason to be hopeful, and think that they'll be the one making a miracle run and soaring up the rankings.
*Top four from each group advance to double-elimination playoffs
In contrast to Europe, the North American looks like it's almost a wrap. Neeb, Astrea, and Scarlett are cruising their way toward their region's three IEM Katowice spots, with Future and Nina having a very narrow chance of disrupting the proceedings. Still, the difference between a direct seed to the group stage (RO24) and having to survive the play-ins (RO36) is substantial, so there will still be a competitive race to avoid third place in the NA standings going forward.
*Top two from each group advance to double-elimination playoffs
The stakes are pretty simple in Latin America. SpeCial is locked in as the #1 seed with a huge surplus of points, leaving Kelazhur and Cham to contend for the region's other spot at IEM. Last season, Cham knocked Kelazhur out of LATAM's #2 spot for the first time in over a year, and if he can repeat that feat, he'll probably be the one headed to Poland (ESL's plans about live competition are pending).
*Top two from each group advance to double-elimination playoffs
Similar to Latin America, China receives two spots at IEM Katowice, and this race is all about who takes second place. TIME is virtually locked in at first place—in order for him to be supplanted, another player would have to win this season of Masters China, AND win a presently non-existant third-party tournament on top of that.
Unlike LATAM, however, China doesn't have the same three players finishing on the medal stand in every single tournament, so there's actually a broad range of possibilities in terms of who gets second place. Cyan and Jieshi trail TIME at the moment, but they could easily be supplanted. Weirdly enough, China might be the region where the small number of points available in the ESL Weekly Cups could make a huge difference. The five points from placing runner-up? That could very well decide things in the end.
*Top two from each group advance to double-elimination playoffs
We can probably call the race here, even without knowing the details of the remaining EPT/third-party events: Has and Nice are going to be representing Taiwan at IEM Katowice. However, if a bookie somewhere is willing to give me 1,000,000,000 to 1 odds on Rex winning this season of Masters Taiwan, HomeStory Cup 21, and the next ten ESL Open NA Cups to reach IEM Katowice, I'll take that bet.
*Top two from each group advance to double-elimination playoffs
With just a single IEM Katowice spot up for grabs (into the play-ins, not even the main group stage), OCE is the smallest EPT region. But in a certain sense, that also means the stakes are the highest in this competition. Probe has a tenuous grip on the #1 spot for now, but fans of drama will surely be cheering for United Kingdom/New Zealand dual-citizen RiSky to come out on top and stoke the protectionist flames. Seither can also claim the IEM ticket with a first place finish—given that he's won WCS Challenger OCE tournaments before, it wouldn't be a particularly surprising result.
On October 20 2020 23:09 Xain0n wrote: In Europe, group B seems the hardest to me; again a bad draw for MaxPax, he needs to deliver to advance.
I think its actually better for him than the last draw, where it was all Zergs. And that realy tells somehing, when the Group of Death this time is still his better draw so unlucky
I mean the only one, he s never beaten before in that group is Clem Elazer, so it s absolutly doable. That said I think he has negative winrates vs Showtime and Clem as well. E.: he s also on a losing matchscore vs Gungfu: Aligulac Prediction
It's nice to get a 'state of the race' update at this time. Hopefully after DH Winter there will be some players still close enough in standings to be forced into playing a bunch of Open Cups--that would be pretty exciting.
On October 21 2020 00:14 ZigguratOfUr wrote: It's nice to get a 'state of the race' update at this time. Hopefully after DH Winter there will be some players still close enough in standings to be forced into playing a bunch of Open Cups--that would be pretty exciting.
Seeing Dark and others doing these again in Korea, some Chinese players trying to get a hand in Europe and continuous European landing on the Americas, this scraping for the Open cup points is already started, and it will grow worse (or better ?) the closer we'll get to the Katowice deadline
On October 20 2020 23:09 Xain0n wrote: In Europe, group B seems the hardest to me; again a bad draw for MaxPax, he needs to deliver to advance.
Totally agree. B is death group and MaxPax is very talented, I feel like he would advance in any other group. In this he might but will strugle.
Could MaxPax theoretically break into top 7 if he does well in this tourney? I think for sure he can advance from this group, and I agree, it seems to be the hardest group.
On October 20 2020 23:09 Xain0n wrote: In Europe, group B seems the hardest to me; again a bad draw for MaxPax, he needs to deliver to advance.
Totally agree. B is death group and MaxPax is very talented, I feel like he would advance in any other group. In this he might but will strugle.
Could MaxPax theoretically break into top 7 if he does well in this tourney? I think for sure he can advance from this group, and I agree, it seems to be the hardest group.
I think he would need at least a top 3, wich is quite unlikely unfortunatly :/ E.: He would actually need to win it to make it straight to Top 7 RIP But I think with realy good results in the Global events (wich are also unlikely, seeing how he s been struggeling vs Solar in Open NA Cups) he could still make it to Kato with a Top 3 finnish. So yeah, Katowice is out of the picture for this year I think...
Risky - Probe in losers match is quite heartbreaking tbh. For me thier rivalry was one of the most entertaining things in this entire region, seeing them clash so early just feels wrong. Also this pretty much decided who gets the Kato spot from OCE..
On October 20 2020 23:09 Xain0n wrote: In Europe, group B seems the hardest to me; again a bad draw for MaxPax, he needs to deliver to advance.
Totally agree. B is death group and MaxPax is very talented, I feel like he would advance in any other group. In this he might but will strugle.
Could MaxPax theoretically break into top 7 if he does well in this tourney? I think for sure he can advance from this group, and I agree, it seems to be the hardest group.
I think not, especially after todays match. I am not sure he will qualify for sure because of his gimmicky/cheesy style everyone knows about.
I think not, especially after todays match. I am not sure he will qualify for sure because of his gimmicky/cheesy style everyone knows about.
That's the problem, past the effect of surprise it's hit or miss, need more versatility. I hope he will qualify despite that, but not that bad if he doesn't. He still needs more experience to tighten his percentages. That's where Vanya's better experience with his own playstyle is showing off
Waiting for his match with Gungfubanda cautiously.
On October 21 2020 21:15 dbRic1203 wrote: Risky - Probe in losers match is quite heartbreaking tbh. For me thier rivalry was one of the most entertaining things in this entire region, seeing them clash so early just feels wrong. Also this pretty much decided who gets the Kato spot from OCE..
Eh. They would have clashed in the winners' bracket if they hadn't both shit the bed. I fail to see the problem here. If Probe loses to TeebuL again, doesn't Seither have a good chance of taking the spot?
E: I guess he'd need to win the whole thing, and then then it'll come down to weeklies.
I think not, especially after todays match. I am not sure he will qualify for sure because of his gimmicky/cheesy style everyone knows about.
That's the problem, past the effect of surprise it's hit or miss, need more versatility. I hope he will qualify despite that, but not that bad if he doesn't. He still needs more experience to tighten his percentages. That's where Vanya's better experience with his own playstyle is showing off
Waiting for his match with Gungfubanda cautiously.
Yes, I was quite surprised casters went for MaxPax win except CatZ. He young tho, I guess he and goblin can be tio protosses in EU by next year if they mix macro style with proxy/canons.
Dont really agree what you guys are saying about Maxpax, obviously when his name became known he was known as a cheeser and last year most of his wins v well known guys came because of weird builds.
But if Maxpax this year really stepped up his game, and if you follow some of the top streamers you would see for yourself how solid his standard macro game has become. You dont get 6.8k on the ladder by just cheesing the crap out of everyone.
Hes taken quite a few games off the best terrans in eu in tournaments, and in pvp hes one of the best players right now even beating showtime multiple times in official series. I always felt PvZ was his weakest matchup, but a few months ago after normally getting farmed v the top zergs he suddenly started beating Lambo 4-5 times in a row on the ladder. Then he also started doing this in tournaments 2-0'ing the German twice in the last few months with solid timings.
So all in all Maxpax is in a good spot right now, he certainly isnt a standard player but he can use that to his strength utilising cheesy strats in 40-50% of the games while at the same time being solid enough to beat top players in a straight up game. Even Neeb is one of the most prolific cannon rushers on the ladder v zerg who then backs it up with his strong macro play to keep his advantage the cannon rush earned him. Will be very interesting to see how he develops next year.
On October 22 2020 22:01 ilax30 wrote: Dont really agree what you guys are saying about Maxpax, obviously when his name became known he was known as a cheeser and last year most of his wins v well known guys came because of weird builds.
But if Maxpax this year really stepped up his game, and if you follow some of the top streamers you would see for yourself how solid his standard macro game has become. You dont get 6.8k on the ladder by just cheesing the crap out of everyone.
Hes taken quite a few games off the best terrans in eu in tournaments, and in pvp hes one of the best players right now even beating showtime multiple times in official series. I always felt PvZ was his weakest matchup, but a few months ago after normally getting farmed v the top zergs he suddenly started beating Lambo 4-5 times in a row on the ladder. Then he also started doing this in tournaments 2-0'ing the German twice in the last few months with solid timings.
So all in all Maxpax is in a good spot right now, he certainly isnt a standard player but he can use that to his strength utilising cheesy strats in 40-50% of the games while at the same time being solid enough to beat top players in a straight up game. Even Neeb is one of the most prolific cannon rushers on the ladder v zerg who then backs it up with his strong macro play to keep his advantage the cannon rush earned him. Will be very interesting to see how he develops next year.
100% this. I mean eben though he lost game 3 vs Vanya yesterday, he didn t comit 100% on the Canon rush, like he would have a year ago, but just used it to Control how the game Starts, just like Vanyas hatch block in G1. Ironically both lost the games where they went for early pressure to Controll the oppening LUL. But neither of them tried to win the game with that moves, just wanted to be anoying, wich is quite good in a series with preperation I think, because your Opponent can t go straight into his prepared build anymore
On October 21 2020 21:15 dbRic1203 wrote: Risky - Probe in losers match is quite heartbreaking tbh. For me thier rivalry was one of the most entertaining things in this entire region, seeing them clash so early just feels wrong. Also this pretty much decided who gets the Kato spot from OCE..
Eh. They would have clashed in the winners' bracket if they hadn't both shit the bed. I fail to see the problem here. If Probe loses to TeebuL again, doesn't Seither have a good chance of taking the spot?
E: I guess he'd need to win the whole thing, and then then it'll come down to weeklies.
As if either of them could get points from weeklies. Seems a bit optimistic, no? Even on NA, wich is arguably the easiest to get points from weeklies allways has at least 4 realy strong Players. So getting 5 points in a weekly is probably harder than win the OCE ( or Tw) DH Regional
On October 22 2020 22:14 dbRic1203 wrote: 100% this. I mean eben though he lost game 3 vs Vanya yesterday, he didn t comit 100% on the Canon rush, like he would have a year ago, but just used it to Control how the game Starts, just like Vanyas hatch block in G1. Ironically both lost the games where they went for early pressure to Controll the oppening LUL. But neither of them tried to win the game with that moves, just wanted to be anoying, wich is quite good in a series with preperation I think, because your Opponent can t go straight into his prepared build anymore
I probably overthink caution so that's why I see that differently. But yes there's already a big evolution in his playstyle, and that shows in the smaller events and in the ladder, and hopefully he gets it fast in the bigger stages (two seasons in a row through qualies is already great)
On October 21 2020 21:15 dbRic1203 wrote: Risky - Probe in losers match is quite heartbreaking tbh. For me thier rivalry was one of the most entertaining things in this entire region, seeing them clash so early just feels wrong. Also this pretty much decided who gets the Kato spot from OCE..
Eh. They would have clashed in the winners' bracket if they hadn't both shit the bed. I fail to see the problem here. If Probe loses to TeebuL again, doesn't Seither have a good chance of taking the spot?
E: I guess he'd need to win the whole thing, and then then it'll come down to weeklies.
As if either of them could get points from weeklies. Seems a bit optimistic, no? Even on NA, wich is arguably the easiest to get points from weeklies allways has at least 4 realy strong Players. So getting 5 points in a weekly is probably harder than win the OCE ( or Tw) DH Regional
Seither has no guarantees to win the OCE version of DH. Every player in the region is a bit inconsistent. He would have to win the whole thing, and even then it's down to the wire. Probe would only need a couple of points to take his spot back. But like dbric said, none would be able to get a single point out of the weeklies. Probe's match history in the KR ones doesn't make me optimistic, and Seither never does them (unless I missed something). The best result there is from what I remember, Risky doing QF in the NA months ago.
Given the end of the season approaches, even more players will start to do these weeklies. So it's already harder to get points there than in the OCE region, but it's going even worse the more it goes.
On October 23 2020 04:19 Vindicare605 wrote: Are there really twice as many Protoss (almost) as there are either of the other two races? Ugh. Gonna be a LOT of PvP in this tournament.
PvP might be the most enjoyable mirror match at the moment. At least, it's much better than it used to be last year!
On October 23 2020 04:19 Vindicare605 wrote: Are there really twice as many Protoss (almost) as there are either of the other two races? Ugh. Gonna be a LOT of PvP in this tournament.
PvP might be the most enjoyable mirror match at the moment. At least, it's much better than it used to be last year!
I watched some of Hellraiser vs Mana, and the games were decent. The players used slightly different builds and compositions, and they both got 3+ bases in every game of the Bo3.
The matchup seems to be a lot about blink stalkers, but that is fine.
EPT![[image loading]](https://liquipedia.net/commons/images/1/12/ESL_Pro_Tour_Season_1_-_Global_Finals_Distribution.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/EPT/Winter2020/dhwschedule.jpg)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/EPT/Winter2020/eugroups1.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/EPT/Winter2020/nagroups1.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/EPT/Winter2020/latamgroups1.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/EPT/Winter2020/cngroups1.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/EPT/Winter2020/twgroups1.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/EPT/Winter2020/ocegroups1.png)
so unlucky 
