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On August 17 2020 19:06 plainsane wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2020 18:29 Nothera wrote:Seems balanced. I don't think zerg as a whole is OP, but when player really plays zerg flawlessly like Rogue, Dark, Reynor and Serral, it is impossible to beat them. Can't say the same about terran and protoss. ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/9TRB8vs.png) You can't just take winners into account, especially in stacked tournaments you need to have a look at top 8 and put it in relation to the starting line up for a better picture. Especially with people like Serral or Reynor in the picture who are just on another level than all other non Koreans. Saying that Zerg is OP because they win a lot of online cups does not mean that Zerg is OP. Take DH Summer Finals, 8T 3Z and 5P in Group and 5T 2Z 1P in Ro8, Serral won it. You could argue that Zerg is the weakest Race for only having 3 Qualified, but Serral and Reynor are so exceptional that they can make it through the Terran and Protoss domination, Reynor even then falling to Trap. TSL5 was pretty balanced with SoO winning, but Inno taking 2nd (4-3 finals) and Protoss 3rd and 4th. IEM makes perhaps the strongest case for Zerg being too strong, but still, Group Stages:5T 9Z 10P, Ro8: 2T 3 Z 3P, still not that imbalanced with Zest winning all PvZ but the finals after having beat Rogue 2-1 even in Group Stages. Zerg OP? Perhaps slightly here GSTL ? looks balanced GSL S1 ? Terran looks way OP here, only 1 Zerg in Ro8, 3P and 4T GSL S2 ? Ro16 looks kinda balanced, slight Terran domination, Ro8 is 3T 2Z 3P, Rogue takes it against a weak stats, as Harstem himself said, not imbalanced
If one race wins more tournaments than the other two combined I think there may be a balance problem. Maybe a slight nerf to Zerg economy is in order, since there is no single strategy that seems OP.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On August 17 2020 19:29 MockHamill wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2020 19:06 plainsane wrote:On August 16 2020 18:29 Nothera wrote:Seems balanced. I don't think zerg as a whole is OP, but when player really plays zerg flawlessly like Rogue, Dark, Reynor and Serral, it is impossible to beat them. Can't say the same about terran and protoss. You can't just take winners into account, especially in stacked tournaments you need to have a look at top 8 and put it in relation to the starting line up for a better picture. Especially with people like Serral or Reynor in the picture who are just on another level than all other non Koreans. Saying that Zerg is OP because they win a lot of online cups does not mean that Zerg is OP. Take DH Summer Finals, 8T 3Z and 5P in Group and 5T 2Z 1P in Ro8, Serral won it. You could argue that Zerg is the weakest Race for only having 3 Qualified, but Serral and Reynor are so exceptional that they can make it through the Terran and Protoss domination, Reynor even then falling to Trap. TSL5 was pretty balanced with SoO winning, but Inno taking 2nd (4-3 finals) and Protoss 3rd and 4th. IEM makes perhaps the strongest case for Zerg being too strong, but still, Group Stages:5T 9Z 10P, Ro8: 2T 3 Z 3P, still not that imbalanced with Zest winning all PvZ but the finals after having beat Rogue 2-1 even in Group Stages. Zerg OP? Perhaps slightly here GSTL ? looks balanced GSL S1 ? Terran looks way OP here, only 1 Zerg in Ro8, 3P and 4T GSL S2 ? Ro16 looks kinda balanced, slight Terran domination, Ro8 is 3T 2Z 3P, Rogue takes it against a weak stats, as Harstem himself said, not imbalanced If one race wins more tournaments than the other two combined I think there may be a balance problem. Maybe a slight nerf to Zerg economy is in order, since there is no single strategy that seems OP.
IMO the issue is when one race is overrepresented in the finals/semis/RO8. When some race cannot win tourneys but can get to the finals, is it a balance or psychological issue? Hmm, I wonder  (in case of Trap in 2019 it was more of his PvZ issue  )
Edit> to be fair, we should remove foreigner only tourneys, because the skill gap between Serral and the rest of foreigners is big and it appears only Reynor in ZvZ is able to cross it. Which makes the statistics wrong.
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France12762 Posts
I don't think Serral and Reynor are "just on another level than all other non koreans". Of course since zerg is hella strong since 4 years they will always look stronger than they are, and so you'll think they are a bit better than they really are, thus using that as a justification for their dominance, but this is a vicious circle. For example Clem is at Reynor / Serral level a lot of times, and on the protoss side Neeb / ShoWTimE sometimes are as well.
About this finals, it's probably a mix of both zerg being strong and Stats not playing at his best level, but since zerg is so strong in both vP and vT, it's kinda hard to be confident in a bo7 grand finals.
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Northern Ireland24512 Posts
Realistically I can’t see that one ever being topped.
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Bisutopia19215 Posts
On August 17 2020 22:06 Wombat_NI wrote:Realistically I can’t see that one ever being topped.
MC stomped July in a version exactly opposite to this finals.
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Northern Ireland24512 Posts
On August 18 2020 02:27 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2020 22:06 Wombat_NI wrote:Realistically I can’t see that one ever being topped. MC stomped July in a version exactly opposite to this finals.
Still can’t be as bad as ‘I hope he doesn’t have detection’ for 4 games in a row
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United States97276 Posts
cant believe Rogue dropped a map. what a disappointment
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Congrats to Rogue, he always manages to win no matter what.
It is a pitty that his wins in ZvP are undermined due to the matchup imbalance at the highest levels. I bet he thinks this way too, and that's why he has been so vocal about it in the past.
I agree that Stats made more mistakes, and selected sub-optimal strategies. But we need to look further. He is not "bad at PvZ". Those strategies were selected because there are no optimal ones, probably trying to throw Rogue a bit off and confronting him with situations that he had not so much practice with. Those mistakes were game-ending due to the design of the matchup - you could even say the entire protoss race.
Yes Rogue can be better than any protoss. Dark also can. And Serral. And perhaps even Reynor. But you have to suspect when most of them are, for a long long time.
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On Golden Wall does actually Rogue win by glooping the twilight? Storm finished 10 seconds too late and it looks like an overseer delayed it just on time.
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On August 18 2020 07:51 Fango wrote:
On Golden Wall does actually Rogue win by glooping the twilight? Storm finished 10 seconds too late and it looks like an overseer delayed it just on time.
That's exactly what happened. Rogue sent in an overseer to scout, and noticed that Stats had just dropped a ton of gates, and didn't have much production ready, just a lot of probes and bases. Additionally, the templar archives were spinning, meaning that storm was on the way. Seeing that, he contaminated storm, and just f2 a-moved his army to Stats' natural, knowing that Stats would have neither storm nor the production to utilize his massive economy. That's why he hit despite not having any hydra upgrades or bane speed. He scouted, saw Stats was being hella greedy, and used that timing to punish. I'm surprised more people didn't catch that one.
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Obligatory Rogue is the one and only bonjwa post.
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Bisutopia19215 Posts
On August 18 2020 09:41 Niravroh wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2020 07:51 Fango wrote:
On Golden Wall does actually Rogue win by glooping the twilight? Storm finished 10 seconds too late and it looks like an overseer delayed it just on time. That's exactly what happened. Rogue sent in an overseer to scout, and noticed that Stats had just dropped a ton of gates, and didn't have much production ready, just a lot of probes and bases. Additionally, the templar archives were spinning, meaning that storm was on the way. Seeing that, he contaminated storm, and just f2 a-moved his army to Stats' natural, knowing that Stats would have neither storm nor the production to utilize his massive economy. That's why he hit despite not having any hydra upgrades or bane speed. He scouted, saw Stats was being hella greedy, and used that timing to punish. I'm surprised more people didn't catch that one.
I was stressing out over the fact the he could have popped like 6-8 overlords easy had he payed attention better and he could have gotten several queens too. It was also frustrating he never tried to attack with his pheonixes from the south or split them for multipronged harass. As a life long Bisu fan, I love watching overlords die.
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On August 18 2020 11:42 BisuDagger wrote:]
I was stressing out over the fact the he could have popped like 6-8 overlords easy had he payed attention better and he could have gotten several queens too. It was also frustrating he never tried to attack with his pheonixes from the south or split them for multipronged harass. As a life long Bisu fan, I love watching overlords die.
Stats scouted the hydra den really early, so maybe he was being really conservative with the pheonixes because he expected a hydra ambush? I agree though, he could have gotten waaayyy more damage with those pheonixes. Just popping the queens alone would probably have done more than the 2 or 3 drones at a time he got.
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Northern Ireland24512 Posts
On August 18 2020 11:42 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2020 09:41 Niravroh wrote:On August 18 2020 07:51 Fango wrote:
On Golden Wall does actually Rogue win by glooping the twilight? Storm finished 10 seconds too late and it looks like an overseer delayed it just on time. That's exactly what happened. Rogue sent in an overseer to scout, and noticed that Stats had just dropped a ton of gates, and didn't have much production ready, just a lot of probes and bases. Additionally, the templar archives were spinning, meaning that storm was on the way. Seeing that, he contaminated storm, and just f2 a-moved his army to Stats' natural, knowing that Stats would have neither storm nor the production to utilize his massive economy. That's why he hit despite not having any hydra upgrades or bane speed. He scouted, saw Stats was being hella greedy, and used that timing to punish. I'm surprised more people didn't catch that one. I was stressing out over the fact the he could have popped like 6-8 overlords easy had he payed attention better and he could have gotten several queens too. It was also frustrating he never tried to attack with his pheonixes from the south or split them for multipronged harass. As a life long Bisu fan, I love watching overlords die.
You like Bisu? Weird, always had you down as a Janbgi man myself...
The storm contaminate was a solid move for sure. SC2 has come a fair way as a broadcast spectacle and Gameheart is a big improvement over the old UI. Still it’s difficult to catch everything as a caster/observer in real time.
Some post-game analysis from replays with knowledgable pros or something would be great. More in-depth interviews with the players too, although I guess it would be a bit rough on the loser after a grand final!
That game made me rather curious. I am unsure if Stats opened that way to counter expected Rogue shenanigans on GW and he went greedy based on what he saw, or that was Stats’ plan A from the beginning and it was Rogue who freestyled up a counter.
If it was the plan A working in practice I’m sure there’d be reasons there too. Did Stats get more done with his Phoenixes (he could have been more aggressive agreed here, finding more ovies, or hydras popping in low numbers), so it bought him time to hold pushes? Or did his partners not find the timing window Rogue did with the contaminate?
Honestly it’s been 10 years and most of our interpretations of GSL builds and strats and gambits are still mostly what we’re coming up with in LR threads. Be nice to hear more from the pros what’s really going on.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
On August 17 2020 21:16 Poopi wrote:
I don't think Serral and Reynor are "just on another level than all other non koreans". Of course since zerg is hella strong since 4 years they will always look stronger than they are, and so you'll think they are a bit better than they really are, thus using that as a justification for their dominance, but this is a vicious circle. For example Clem is at Reynor / Serral level a lot of times, and on the protoss side Neeb / ShoWTimE sometimes are as well.
About this finals, it's probably a mix of both zerg being strong and Stats not playing at his best level, but since zerg is so strong in both vP and vT, it's kinda hard to be confident in a bo7 grand finals.
Stats is mostly a kong, he seems to be quite bad at winning the finals. Not as bad as soO
So, if Clem is on the same level, why isn't he winning more things? Yes, when Neeb's on fire he can be on that level, but the last 2 years he's been on a lower level.
Look, they may be mechanically on the same level, but psychologically? Strategically? Why is Serral winning every foreign tourney and if not him then Reynor? If it's "zerg too stronk" excuse, why Maru won 4 Code S in a row then? Why Maru won the WESG? Why Classic won ST2 2018 over sOs(that's like 2 Protosses in them finals).
Why other players can do what foreigners can't? If they're trully on the same level and Korea can have 2 Protosses in the finals and Terran dominate everything for a year, then why no foreigner was able to win at least some tournament? Mind you that if others are on the same level, why they don't show this at IEM? Blizzcon? 
Anyway, my point is that yes, Zerg wins a lot, but other races can get to the finals, so it doesn't seem like it's "zerg too stronk" but rather other issues. And that the foreigners are not on the Serral's level which makes the stats unreliable.
Edit> no matter what year you use it seems Korean can overcome "zerg too stronk" while some Korean Zergs are still capable of winning the WC title(meaning Korean zergs are not that bad as some people say they are) yet foreigners cannot. Really, tell my why, because you say the are players on the top level yet every final is either Reynor or Serral claiming the title.
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i'm not sure if i'm allowed to mention this. but reading through the comments seems that many people are blaming it on the game balance.
but I have a question. If an imbalance towards one of the races was the cause, wouldn't we see more of one race in the lower brackets?
wouldn't proven champions playing said race have also exploited this imbalance in the game and not been eliminated in the group stages?
i know we all have our favorites and we like to see them win, and we try to defend our convictions when they don't come through.
but i believe that at this level of play if an imbalance would be the case, at a level that it would decide championships, it would be bluntly noticed.
but that said i'm only a casual viewer of the game and havent played in a few years so there are probably many aspects of the mechanics that are beyond my understanding. Gladly TastOsis is here to explain it to me while a watch theses gods of the game fight to the death for my nerdish enjoyment.
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I don't care what any of ya'll say. I'm still Stats boy until I die
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On August 16 2020 18:29 Nothera wrote:Seems balanced. I don't think zerg as a whole is OP, but when player really plays zerg flawlessly like Rogue, Dark, Reynor and Serral, it is impossible to beat them. Can't say the same about terran and protoss.
Everyone defending balance at this point needs to stfu and just look at this. Its been going on forever that zerg is too strong in this game (at least in LOTV expansion, much more balanced before).
You don't, you just don't get such a huge disparity in premier tournament wins if that race isn't flat out stronger
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I'm just reading through all the comments here and elsewhere, and...
I just want to say. Did NO ONE notice the ACTUAL error Stats made in Game 2?
He completely fucked up with his 2 Sentries at his natural choke that were supposed to buy time for Storm to finish, which would let him completely shut Rogue out from attacking lest he wants to eat several Storms while trying to shoot down his wall.
It's not his Phoenix macro build, or the balance or anything else that game. He simply didn't look for a couple seconds and those few lings killed his 1st Sentry, and pushed his 2nd Sentry back enough that it also couldn't get good enough FF's at the natural. The first Sentry threw a FF down that failed to push the lings actually out so it died and used 0 useful FFs. The 2nd Sentry then threw down 2 messed up FF's so close to his Gates that Rogue's Hydras were able to stand on the ramp and shoot down his Gates/wall anyway.
He basically wasted 4 full FF's, when it was supposed to buy him 30 seconds more for Storm to finish and completely deny Rogue from being able to attack. If he wanted to attack he'd have to attack buildings and eat Storms. And Stats could have warped in even more Sentries for more FF's if he didn't mess up. Instead he lost his wall so he had to warp in slow Zealots and make do because the Hydras already got in.
You guys really can't be making an informed opinion on things if you seriously didn't notice how pivotal those 2 Sentries were. I give Tastosis a pass because they were casting and it can be really easy to miss things like this because you just don't expect pros to be making such game-ending mistakes. Same thing in the last game where Stats didn't look for a couple seconds and he failed to plug his wall up vs those Zerglings.
Honestly I'm open to the idea of Batteries being able to lower like Depots, just to make things less punishing. It's not interesting losing to something just because you didn't look for a couple seconds. Terran doesn't have this problem because depots can lower, and because their production can be rallied to the lowered depot, and they have access to units like Hellions so ling runbys are way less effective. Toss meanwhile can just completely die as we saw. Instead of making Batteries lower, they could make it Protoss-y by having it "phase" out and become transparent energy or such, in this form it cannot regenerate Shields.
Without getting too much into the balance side of things, due to the 12 worker start seemingly benefiting Zerg the most of any race, it may be worth considering a universal slight nerf to Zerg macro. Something like making Queen build time a few seconds longer, making Inject give 1 less larva, or making Inject take a few more seconds to spawn the larva. Anything that might encourage you to make 1-2 more Hatcheries to compensate for the slight nerf, which would ever so slightly help compensate for Zerg disproportionately benefiting from LotV's 12 worker start.
I think the Viper may need to be taken another look at as well. Particularly Abduct's instant nature combined with Consume allowing for plenty of energy. Both Abduct + Consume further capitalize on Zerg benefiting from the 12 worker start because these are abilities that you can take full advantage of when you have a lead. Balance aside though, from a spectator perspective, seeing Rogue yoink those Colossus just felt so unfair, and was so lame and anticlimactic to watch. It's like the battle was decided before any fighting happened. If say Abduct had some kind of channel similar to Ghost's Steady Targetting, there could be more anticipation and counterplay. Or if Abduct pulled Massive units a shorter distance or dragged units while allowing the units to still attack, instead of yoinking instantly, there would be more tension and interaction.
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EPT
2011 LG Cinema 3D Global StarCraft II League May/Code S
