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![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/9jd1Q8f.jpg)
The most recent two-week period for Aligulac ratings (up to July15) ended with Reynor taking the #1 spot away from Serral after a 70-week run at the top.
The Italian Zerg's performances in TSL 5 and ESL Europe, along with Serral's failures in those events, gave him the boost he needed to #1, going 37-9 in matches vs top-level competition from EU and KR.
Over that time frame, Maru, Dark, and Innovation all made a challenge for #1, but surprisingly it was Reynor that rose from #10 when Serral's run started to finally catch him. Watching Reynor's results start to match his potential has been a really nice story the last 18 months.
Still, that was some amazing consistency from the Finnish Zerg and an historic achievement. Onnittelut!
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/qMaJVl5.jpg)
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Well.. that last long! seems like serral is back on top after dream hack 
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On July 22 2020 05:59 La1 wrote:Well.. that last long! seems like serral is back on top after dream hack
By 2 points!
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Serral's Douyu Cup group results (against Armani, Rogue and PartinG) haven't been factored in yet, so Serral might very well lose first place again very soon.
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Northern Ireland24424 Posts
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thats such a steep rise in the graph, wow. impressive
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These colors sure make it easy to understand!
I'd love to see how Serral/Reynor would do in a GSL format tournament. It's sort of a shame that there's no reason for non-Koreans to bother with GSL, so we rarely get to see them in that kind of tournament. Just the ones who do it anyway (Scarlett & Major & Astrea)...
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Geez, Aligulac really tells you everything you need to know about the state of race balance in SC2. Sad times to be a protoss.
http://aligulac.com/periods/, makes it even more clear. Protoss haven't lead an average since 2015.
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On July 22 2020 08:10 Russano wrote:Geez, Aligulac really tells you everything you need to know about the state of race balance in SC2. Sad times to be a protoss. http://aligulac.com/periods/, makes it even more clear. Protoss haven't lead an average since 2015.
Aligulac is useless for judging balance especially for Protoss. PvP is so volatile that Protoss players will always be rated lower on average. Protoss is definitely weak currently but the idea that they have been the weakest race since 2015 is just absurd.
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Northern Ireland24424 Posts
Protoss haven’t been the weakest race since 2015, but since way back in BW. They have had the odd high point though.
It makes a lot of sense in lore that the dudes with psionic powers and robots and shield tech are a less potent military force than a bunch of dudes with guns and some tanks.
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On July 22 2020 08:41 Wombat_NI wrote:
Protoss haven’t been the weakest race since 2015, but since way back in BW. They have had the odd high point though.
It makes a lot of sense in lore that the dudes with psionic powers and robots and shield tech are a less potent military force than a bunch of dudes with guns and some tanks.
It's because they are so advanced that they can't get anything done. The factions spend their time arguing psionically back and forth rather than taking action. Sure they have the stronger tech, but it's really scattered. Meanwhile, the Zerg swarm act as one, and the Terran are just YOLOing it. Bureaucracies, I tell ya.
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On July 22 2020 08:39 JJH777 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2020 08:10 Russano wrote:Geez, Aligulac really tells you everything you need to know about the state of race balance in SC2. Sad times to be a protoss. http://aligulac.com/periods/, makes it even more clear. Protoss haven't lead an average since 2015. Aligulac is useless for judging balance especially for Protoss. PvP is so volatile that Protoss players will always be rated lower on average. Protoss is definitely weak currently but the idea that they have been the weakest race since 2015 is just absurd.
The assertion isn't that Protoss has been the weakest race since 2015, it's that Protoss has not been the strongest race since 2015. Looking at aligulac, Protoss was marked as the middle race in March 2018 for example.
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Northern Ireland24424 Posts
On July 22 2020 08:50 phodacbiet wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2020 08:41 Wombat_NI wrote:
Protoss haven’t been the weakest race since 2015, but since way back in BW. They have had the odd high point though.
It makes a lot of sense in lore that the dudes with psionic powers and robots and shield tech are a less potent military force than a bunch of dudes with guns and some tanks. It's because they are so advanced that they can't get anything done. The factions spend their time arguing psionically back and forth rather than taking action. Sure they have the stronger tech, but it's really scattered. Meanwhile, the Zerg swarm act as one, and the Terran are just YOLOing it. Bureaucracies, I tell ya.
But Tassadar unifying them 
I do like the idea (and for all factions) of them just discontinuing things though.
‘Yeah em, I know these Reavers served us really well but we’re going to have to discontinue them. Luckily we have ancient war machines from the Aeon of Strife called collosus to use! They’re really tall and vulnerable to anti-air of our enemies but look! They can walk up cliffs’
‘Ok I like these Collosi, they look cool and they have big lasers that shred things. You know what would be great militarily? If we had both Collosi and Reavers! Imagine it, the mobile collosus striding across the battlefield, with the Reavers scuttling around firing their scarabs, things would melt! Especially if we continued the tradition of carrying reavers in shuttles .’
‘No.’
‘What do you mean no? We could slay many an enemy with both these weapons of war!’ Well let me think which of these robotic tools that have served Aiur so well I’d rather have in my forces.’
‘No we’re streamlining. It’s Collosus. That we’ve only just recovered from the Sea and don’t really know much about.’
‘But... with minerals and gas we can manufacture anything we know how to? What’s the issue here? Also we have like thousands of Reavers sitting around already?’
‘No it’s been decided. It’s Collosus. Destroy all the reavers. While you’re at it can you destroy all of our fleet of Corsairs and Arbiters? We can’t really see a tactical need for a machine that can trap units in space-time and teleport units to them.’
‘You can’t? It’s extremely useful in getting past the humans tank lines!’
‘Hm, well I suppose the ability to teleport an army is quite useful tactically, but Arbiters are yesterday’s tech. How about we give you a giant arbiter but you can only deploy one?’
‘Well that sounds wors...’
‘It’s giant singular Arbiter or no arbiter.’
*Sighs* ‘OK’
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Boy this thread got derailed fast.
Reynor has definitely gotten better, it seems. His barcode MMR is the highest it's ever been, correlating with his aligulac. I guess Reynor is a very late bloomer. His brain may be rapidly developing. Better late than never. :D
I hate the fact that the S. Korea military policy has taken away, or suppressed so many talents. Serral and Reynor could use a greater pool of preys to feed on. huwahaha
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Stats seems real lonely there in that graph
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On July 22 2020 07:54 Andi_Goldberger wrote:
thats such a steep rise in the graph, wow. impressive
I love seeing players come from the middle of the pack to reach elite status. Over those 70 weeks, Reynor gained (2686 -> 3116) 430 points, which was a great run, but not the best ever.
I did some quick comparisons and, not to be outdone, Cure gained (2478-> 3033) 555 points in 56 weeks right in the middle of that run, coinciding with his impressive results in GSL.
In 2018, Maru went from 2496 (#17) to 3047 (#1) (+551) in less than one year.
Dream is on a solid run of late, up +500 since joining BSG.*
*Bad comparison since 2100->2650 is way easier than 2500->3000
On July 22 2020 08:07 Blargh wrote:
These colors sure make it easy to understand!
You can save the graph in four different formats, but even if you put 50 players on it you only get line colors of red and blue.
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This lasted long, Kappa
User was warned for this post
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On July 22 2020 08:10 Russano wrote:Geez, Aligulac really tells you everything you need to know about the state of race balance in SC2. Sad times to be a protoss. http://aligulac.com/periods/, makes it even more clear. Protoss haven't lead an average since 2015.
Which is backed up by the fact that during no year of lotv has a protoss player been in the top three of earnings for that year. How incredible is that.
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On July 22 2020 08:59 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2020 08:39 JJH777 wrote:On July 22 2020 08:10 Russano wrote:Geez, Aligulac really tells you everything you need to know about the state of race balance in SC2. Sad times to be a protoss. http://aligulac.com/periods/, makes it even more clear. Protoss haven't lead an average since 2015. Aligulac is useless for judging balance especially for Protoss. PvP is so volatile that Protoss players will always be rated lower on average. Protoss is definitely weak currently but the idea that they have been the weakest race since 2015 is just absurd. The assertion isn't that Protoss has been the weakest race since 2015, it's that Protoss has not been the strongest race since 2015. Looking at aligulac, Protoss was marked as the middle race in March 2018 for example.
Actually I'm making both of those assertions. At a long glance, Protoss hasn't been the best of the three since 2015. Protoss have also spent the most time at bottom fo the three. Over the last 5 years they have statistically been the weakest race. Which isn't shocking or controversial - somebody had to be - there's only 3 races after all. We definitely know it hasn't been Zerg.
Looking at the short term - PvP volatility does absolutley nothing to explain it. Stats' pvp is roughly equal rating with his vT and vZ. He wins equally consistently there as he does in other matches, so if PvP is by defintion "volatile" and thus inconsistent, then PvZ and PvT have proven to be equally volatile. As volatility increases with sample size what you get is not volatility but a conclusion of "worse on average", as that volatility is smoothed out over time.
The simple fact of the matter is that on average, the best ZvP and TvP players are performing significantly better than the top end of PvT and PvZ players. And it's not even that one player happens to be good in a matchup. Every single top player in that list is at minimum, equally good in the matchups as Stats, and then has 1-3 matchups where they smash his numbers.
The only conclusion that can be drawn is that Protoss, on average over time, is the weakest of the three. There may also be something intrinsic to the protoss race that renders it more difficult to play, leading to greater peaks and valleys of results, but overtime that simply translates to "being worse".
Note: This analysis only applies to the very topmost players. There are statistics like PvT being 54 percent in favor of the protoss during this period which point in the other direction. Gratz protoss, you are the best at making it to the round of 16.
As for Reynor, it's cool that he hit up the number 1 spot, no matter how brief. The graphs really show how far he's come. I don't think he's a better overall player than Serral, but I think that his vP and vT are sufficiently high enough to prove a challenge, and his vZ is good enough that he can beat Serral with some amount of regularity - and so far thats more than anyone else has been able to say. If he improves even more than he already has somehow, it would not be a surprise to see him as simply the best player - which is really cool to see given the stagnation in the scene - and especially Korea.
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On July 22 2020 10:31 LTCM wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2020 08:10 Russano wrote:Geez, Aligulac really tells you everything you need to know about the state of race balance in SC2. Sad times to be a protoss. http://aligulac.com/periods/, makes it even more clear. Protoss haven't lead an average since 2015. Which is backed up by the fact that during no year of lotv has a protoss player been in the top three of earnings for that year. How incredible is that.
And yet Protoss has still won more prize money than Terran over the life of the game. By $500k in fact. Protoss prize money is just spread out over the most players. Zerg is ahead of both by well over $2million.
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EPT
