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Code S RO16 Preview: Maru, RagnaroK, INno, Zest

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Code S RO16 Preview: Maru, RagnaroK, INno, Zest

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
May 15th, 2020 03:30 GMT

Code S Season 1 - Round of 16

by Orlok and Zealously

Imagine you're a professional StarCraft II player. You are not without accolades, but have never truly stood in the spotlight. A quarterfinal here, an online cup win there, a modest but devoted fan following. Imagine you continue to persevere, slowly encroach into the upper echelon of the scene, and start to notice your peers talk about you with more respect.

In the first Code S of the year, on the back of a quarterfinal finish in the previous season, you reach the Round of 16 with relative ease. You know what people are saying about you now: In almost any group, you seem like a real threat to make the quarterfinals again. Almost any group.

Imagine you're Ragnarok at the Group Selections. It goes by in a blur. You remember getting picked early. You vaguely remember joking with PartinG hyung. You also remember walking up to INnoVation in a trance-like state. When you finally come to and look around you, the selections have concluded. Who do you see?

Maru, Zest, and Innovation.

Oh, great...

Group D: The Three Trials of RagnaroK

In every Code S tournament, fans are eager to designate one of the RO16 groups as a "Group of Death." While at their core they represent the same kind of perilous predicaments, we might divide them into two types:

1) Groups with no clear favorites, or even no favorites at all. Groups where any player breezing through 4-0 would be a surprise. Usually these are groups with four, very evenly matched or notoriously inconsistent players.

2) Groups in which an extraordinary amount of skill and past tournament success has been concentrated.

The infamous 2013 Code S Group featuring Life, Parting, Innovation and Flash is the greatest example of category #2. But we could sub-divide category #2 even further: In some of such groups, every player could reasonably be crowned champion at the tournament's end. In others, three players stick out (such as Life, Parting and Innovation in the aforementioned example) while the fourth seems just a bit out of place. Three, though, is often enough.

More info: GSL Code S Season 1 on Liquipedia

At face value, this group looks exactly like type 2b: Three clear favorites, joined by a plucky, but unfortunately doomed fourth player. By name value alone, three of the players in this group belong in the pantheon of StarCraft II's all-time greats. Maru and Innovation could square off directly for the title of the game's top Terran (perhaps joined by Mvp for those who value the past). Of course, Zest has a strong case to be called the all-time best for his own faction.

RagnaroK seems hopelessly lacking when compared in this context, entering the group with no major championships to his name. It's tempting to look at the group as a three-man melee because our eyes are generally drawn to the superstars. But at this very moment, that would be a mistake. This may be the best version of RagnaroK we've ever seen—if there was ever a time for him to defy these titans, it would be now. This group of RagnaroK's making will now become his trial.

The Trials

You don't need to do deep statistical analysis to know that players who win their initial match advance more often than those who lose in GSL-style group play. In this group, Ragnarok's first opponent is unfortunately Maru, who excels under the bright lights of the AfreecaTV studio (and just excels at StarCraft II in general). Even if RagnaroK loses, the match could be a great way to gauge his all-around readiness. Will he look spry and force some close games out of Maru as he has done in the past? Or will he be overrun by the four-time Code S champ?

In terms of ZvT, RagnaroK has recently recorded victories over TY and INnoVation in the WardiTV Spring Championship, displaying good early-game instincts and strong mid/late-game macro play. The greatest testament to RagnaroK's ZvT skills might actually have come in a loss: he went the distance with INnoVation in another, seven-game series during the Olimoleague Monthly Finals (more on that in a bit). It's safe to say that RagnaroK—at least online—is in shape to take on Korea's top Terrans.

Fittingly, for this narrative, Maru was the one to eliminate Ragnarok last season. The content of those games fits this story as well: RagnaroK gave a great account of himself in straight-up games, and then Maru gave him a figurative pat on the shoulder before blasting him into oblivion. Maru is a tough player to predict as we haven't seen him play for over a month—his last broadcast match was his Super Tournament finals victory over Dark. On the one hand, there is no reason to believe that Maru is anything other than that same, championship-favorite player. On the other hand, Ragnarok is probably better now than he has ever been, and he's played surprisingly close games against Maru in the past. Win or lose, you get the feeling that he's going to at least try to take on Maru in straight-up games. One has to wonder: will Maru oblige him again?

Now, let's get back to RagnaroK's second trial in INnoVation. This test is one of RagnaroK's own choosing—but weeks after the group selection, we still don't fully understand why RagnaroK picked INnoVation. The implacable machine has been an absolute terror since he topped his GSL group back in mid-April. He boasts 70%+ map win-rates in EVERY match-up since then, and he’s beaten the cream of the crop of every faction along the way. Players like Dark, Zest, Trap, and Rogue have been vanquished, and the way INnoVation has done it exudes championship class. He's shown us both "I don't care that you know all my builds" macro and also the cheesy all-ins needed to keep opponents honest. INnoVation hasn’t shown this kind of swagger since he was running for GOAT of StarCraft II back in 2017, and he even voiced it during the group selections by declaring himself the inevitable Code S champion.

However, there's a small but important caveat regarding the specific match-up of RagnaroK vs INnoVation. RagnaroK has been the spirited underdog who refuses to back down from INnoVation. In their seven-game Olimoleague series, RagnaroK dared to outproduce INnoVation, dared to sniff out and stop his proxies, and dared to take easy wins with Ravager cheese. Simply put, Ragnarok gave peak INnoVation just about as much as he could handle. So, while INnoVation's momentum and swagger point to a loss for RagnaroK, there might be enough upstart insolence in our Zerg protagonist to steal a victory. Even with INnoVation looking to be in his best form in years, he still has to put his money where his mouth is.



As for Zest, he poses a different kind of problem. When Zest unveiled his Adept-printer style at IEM Katowice, it might have seemed like a return to the horror days of early LotV. But since then, Zest has shown Glaive-Adepts to be quite the versatile opener, as capable of transitioning into a strong-three base attack as it is of going 'brrrr' on a Drone line.

Ragnarok has played only a handful of matches against Protoss opponents since advancing to the RO16. While he did beat Trap and Creator, he also lost to PartinG, and, wouldya-know-it, Zest. Due to their fondness for playing in online cups, RagnaroK and Zest have actually faced each other a ton in the new season, and they're currently tied 6-6 in series while RagnaroK leads 20-18 on maps. RagnaroK should be more than familiar with Zest's style of play and vice versa.

So, what will happen when these two take their mutual knowledge of each other into a Code S match? Fans might hope for the best version of an ESL Open/Olimoleague/Kung Fu Cup duel between these two: a high-level, standard PvZ. But, considering how the RO16 has gone so far, they're likely to use their mutual familiarity to try and trick one another. And, if they try that approach at the same time, their games could get very strange.


Orlok's predictions

Have the #TerranPatch memes have gone too far? Is it not even a meme anymore? Anyway, for reasons of personal bias, I'm going with the two best Terrans to advance. INnoVation has the statistics and momentum behind him, while Maru always seems to show up in great form in GSL Code S. Here’s to the glorious victory of the Terran race!

Maru 2-1 RagnaroK
INnoVation 2-1 Zest
Maru 1-2 INnoVation
Ragnarok 1-2 Zest
Maru 2-1 Zest

Maru and Innovation advance.



Zealously's predictions

It's hardly a secret that I have a weak spot for over-matched underdogs. There is something very inspiring about success against imposing odds, and if I could, I would predict the fall of the established elite every time.

The first match will go Maru's way, however hard Ragnarok might make it for the multiple-time champion. Against Zest and Innovation, there are an abundance of past matches to review if Ragnarok feels so inclined, but the same does not hold true for Maru.

But we know Ragnarok is capable of fighting evenly against both Zest and INnoVation, so I think advancement in second place with victories against both those players is possible. Yes, yes, we all know online results don't always count for much in Code S matches. But in the absence of other information, I'm clinging to the hope that the Ragnarok who shows up on Saturday is at least as good as the one we've seen online.

Ultimately much will depend on daily form, both for our titular hero and his three opponents. Ragnarok will need to be in great condition (or bring particularly well-prepared cheeses) to tip the scales in his favor and pass this series of trials. The GSL has been home to particularly scrappy games of late, and it would be far better for Ragnarok to be the one pushing his opponents out of their comfort zones than be the one being pushed.

Maru 2-1 Ragnarok
Innovation 2-0 Zest
Maru 2-1 Innovation
Ragnarok 2-1 Zest
Innovation 1-2 Ragnarok

Maru and Ragnarok advance.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writers: Orlok and Zealously
Editor: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
Htime
Profile Joined March 2019
58 Posts
May 15 2020 05:04 GMT
#2
"You also remember walking up to INnoVation in a trance-like state"
I remember shouting at the screen INNOVATION !? ARE YOU CRAZY
I still can't figure it out.
RagnaroK is now the only chance to get two Zergs into the Ro8 after the weak showings of soO and Solar, but this is not the group that is going to let that happen. The odds are just so poor of him getting the four or five map wins he needs.
Inno (24-20) and Zest (26-29) have some of the best results vs Maru, almost a perfect pair to defeat the 4-time champion. It would barely be an upset if Innovation and Zest advanced, and it would be a little bit RagnaroK's fault. I suspect it will be an intense three-way battle, very excited to watch.
catplanetcatplanet
Profile Blog Joined March 2012
3745 Posts
May 15 2020 05:26 GMT
#3
On April 22 2020 03:44 catplanetcatplanet wrote:
Seeing as all my zenex boys have ridden off into the sunset I'm going to adopt ragnarok for the course of his run in this tournament

I, too, am a cultured ragnarok supporter
I think it's finally time to admit it might not be the year of Pet
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada7864 Posts
May 15 2020 05:30 GMT
#4
The G5L final dream begin, here's to hopping INno and Maru delivers!
http://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
Vindicare605
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States14229 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-15 05:45:13
May 15 2020 05:38 GMT
#5
There are 10 Code S gold medals in this group. That's completely insane! I want Ragnarok to lose just for putting these 3 potential championship players all in the same group. They should be facing off against each other in the Ro8 not the Ro16.

Also speaking of the Ro8. The winners of this group will face off against either Trap or Parting in the next round. Except for Ragnarok I'd say that all 3 of these players are favored against those two.
@KTVindicare:twitch.tv/ktvindicare youtube.com/ktvindicare Host of the Geeky Bartender podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/37cUiMLwFIZ4fNz6qLGxjZ?si=LhiiC08lRgCGjs4Muoma3g&dl_branch=1
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16954 Posts
May 15 2020 05:44 GMT
#6
Oh nice Zealously is actually predicting the underdog that get's hyped up by the article to advance.
Zealously
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
East Gorteau22261 Posts
May 15 2020 05:47 GMT
#7
On May 15 2020 14:44 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
Oh nice Zealously is actually predicting the underdog that get's hyped up by the article to advance.


I am nothing if not reliable
AdministratorBreak the chains
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-15 05:54:29
May 15 2020 05:51 GMT
#8
On May 15 2020 14:30 Nakajin wrote:
The G5L final dream begin, here's to hopping INno and Maru delivers!


I was wondering if anyone was thinking of potential hype. Maru vs Inno, dueling for the G5L. One Bo7 to crown the GOAT.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
Orlok
Profile Joined June 2014
Korea (South)227 Posts
May 15 2020 06:07 GMT
#9
Why would you guys root against the two literal best Terrans ever?
Writer"Don't leave me hangin!"
yht9657
Profile Joined December 2016
1780 Posts
May 15 2020 06:09 GMT
#10
(T)Maru 2:0 (Z)RagnaroK
(T)INnoVation 2:0 (P)Zest
(T)Maru 0:2 (T)INnoVation
(Z)RagnaroK 2:1 (P)Zest
(T)Maru 2:0 (Z)RagnaroK
dbRic1203
Profile Joined July 2019
Germany2344 Posts
May 15 2020 06:11 GMT
#11
Realy like the FOCUS in the underdog, Who forged this horrendus group here
If he get s out of this (what I doupt) it s going to be the prove, that his good results from last year are actually legit and not a combination of an insanly hot streak and favourable Balance.
MaxPax | Reynor | Clem
vyzion
Profile Joined August 2016
296 Posts
May 15 2020 06:27 GMT
#12
Can't wait!! Thank you as always for the write ups!
Olli
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Austria24394 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-15 08:04:43
May 15 2020 07:30 GMT
#13
Tsk, this has Zest advancing all over it. Only player in the group who can all in on preparing for one match-up, has actually beaten Innovation a few times after taking a beating (which casters said may have been due to injury?). I expect Maru to 4-0 his way out of the group while Zest beats Innovation at least once to advance.
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
Edpayasugo
Profile Joined April 2013
United Kingdom2135 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-15 07:36:02
May 15 2020 07:35 GMT
#14
Really looking forward to this group.


The infamous 2013 Code S Group featuring Life, Parting, Innovation and Flash is the greatest example of category #2. But we could sub-divide category #2 even further: In some of such groups, every player could reasonably be crowned champion at the tournament's end. In others, three players stick out (such as Life, Parting and Innovation in the aforementioned example) while the fourth seems just a bit out of place. Three, though, is often enough.


Disagree on this, at the time FlaSh was considered a top two Terran and had posted better HoTS individual results than INnoVation, and the Group was really considered a 4 way group of death.
FlaSh MMA INnoVation FanTaSy MKP TY Ryung | soO Dark Rogue | HuK PartinG Stork State
TheOneAboveU
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Germany3340 Posts
May 15 2020 08:00 GMT
#15
Let's go WINoVation! Activate destroy.exe!
Moderatoralias TripleM | @TL_TripleM | Big Dark Energy!
Olli
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Austria24394 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-05-15 08:06:35
May 15 2020 08:06 GMT
#16
I actually also disagree with the Flash, Parting, Life group being #1 group of death. It was Maru, Soulkey, Dear, Zest early in 2014. They were actually the best Zerg, Terran, Protoss at the time and the guy who just all-killed SKT in a Proleague finals and went on to royal road the GSL.
Administrator"Declaring anything a disaster because aLive popped up out of nowhere is just downright silly."
neutralrobot
Profile Joined July 2011
Australia1014 Posts
May 15 2020 10:23 GMT
#17
On May 15 2020 14:51 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2020 14:30 Nakajin wrote:
The G5L final dream begin, here's to hopping INno and Maru delivers!


I was wondering if anyone was thinking of potential hype. Maru vs Inno, dueling for the G5L. One Bo7 to crown the GOAT.


I love this idea. Makes me think of a tense duel in a Western.
Maru | Life | PartinG || I guess I like aggressive control freaks... || Reynor will one day reign supreme || *reyn supreme
Z3nith
Profile Joined October 2017
485 Posts
May 15 2020 10:31 GMT
#18
On May 15 2020 14:38 Vindicare605 wrote:
There are 10 Code S gold medals in this group. That's completely insane! I want Ragnarok to lose just for putting these 3 potential championship players all in the same group. They should be facing off against each other in the Ro8 not the Ro16.

Also speaking of the Ro8. The winners of this group will face off against either Trap or Parting in the next round. Except for Ragnarok I'd say that all 3 of these players are favored against those two.


I wouldn't be so sure, statistically speaking Trap and Parting are the two best PvT players ever.
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States31188 Posts
May 15 2020 12:01 GMT
#19
On May 15 2020 16:35 Edpayasugo wrote:
Really looking forward to this group.


Show nested quote +
The infamous 2013 Code S Group featuring Life, Parting, Innovation and Flash is the greatest example of category #2. But we could sub-divide category #2 even further: In some of such groups, every player could reasonably be crowned champion at the tournament's end. In others, three players stick out (such as Life, Parting and Innovation in the aforementioned example) while the fourth seems just a bit out of place. Three, though, is often enough.


Disagree on this, at the time FlaSh was considered a top two Terran and had posted better HoTS individual results than INnoVation, and the Group was really considered a 4 way group of death.


This is actually one of the things the 'hardcore' fan sect of SC2 fought about the most: was Flash actually good or insanely overhyped due to his reputation? I'm still on team overrated (Flash definitely got better as time went along, but his inability to ever make the Code S RO8 is really glaring)
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
TL+ Member
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8435 Posts
May 15 2020 12:08 GMT
#20
On May 15 2020 14:51 pvsnp wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 15 2020 14:30 Nakajin wrote:
The G5L final dream begin, here's to hopping INno and Maru delivers!


I was wondering if anyone was thinking of potential hype. Maru vs Inno, dueling for the G5L. One Bo7 to crown the GOAT.

Feels a bit forced to count INno's GSL vs The World but not Maru's Super Tournament just for the sake of G5L
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
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