Unfortunately, we bullied poor Soularion too much after WCS Valencia, which means his insightful write-up on the tournament will be late. In the meanwhile, enjoy my ramblings instead.
"Fine, I'll write a recap, if you insist."
Serral by the Numbers
Remember the old days when we used to joke about region lock and laugh about what would happen if we uncaged a player like INnoVation on the Circuit? Well, it's happening right now.
Serral defeated a field of 76 contenders to lift the trophy at WCS Valencia, becoming the first player to win an incredible three WCS Circuit championships in a row. It was a tremendous moment in WCS' short history, but somehow the gravity of the accomplishment was lessened by how certain everyone was that Serral would win. No one has ever dominated his foreigner peers as ruthlessly as Serral, and no one has struck so much fear in his opponent's hearts.
MaNa begged for mercy ahead of his finals meeting against Serral back at DreamHack Austin. In Valencia, HeRoMaRinE said he prepared for everyone except Serral, all but preemptively GG'ing out of a match against the Finnish Phenom.
Now you might acknowledge Serral's dominance but still say that comparing him to a top Korean ripping through the foreign scene is hyperbole. And I'll ask back: is it, really? Consider the following:
Record versus foreigners
Player
Match score
Win rate
Game score
Win rate
Time frame
Serral (all)
97-10
90.65%
218-39
84.82%
2018 Season*
Serral (offline)
37-2
94.87%
102-19
84.30%
2018 Season
Maru (all)
27-2
93.10%
63-12
84.00%
2018 Season
Maru (offline)
19-1
95.00%
46-8
85.19%
2018 Season
Rogue (all)
38-5
88.37%
81-13
86.17%
2018 Season
Rogue (offline)
10-3
76.92%
23-7
76.67%
2018 Season
INnoVation (all)
65-8
89.04%
132-20
86.84%
2017 Season**
INnoVation (offline)
14-2
87.50%
24-5
82.76%
2017 Season
Perfect Dark
34-0
100.00%
71-8
89.87%
2012-2017***
All records via Aligulac.com *After 2017-11-15 (4.0 design patch) **From 2016-11-25 (3.8 design patch) to 2017-11-14 (4.0 design patch) ***From 2012-10-11 to 2017-10-28 (arbitrary period selected for best possible vs foreigner record)
Whoops, I guess Serral is a bum compared to 2017 INnoVation, with a mere 84.82% game win rate against foreigners compared to INnoVation's 86.84%. My deepest apologies to INnoVation fans and Korean elitists alike.
Anyway, here's Serral 2018 vs Neeb's 2017 for good measure. I left out Neeb's WCS Valencia run from the stats to keep things from getting too embarrassing.
Record in WCS Circuit Tournaments
Player
Match score
Win rate
Game score
Win rate
Time frame
Serral (all)
32-1
96.97%
95-16
85.59%
WCS 2018
Serral (offline)
18-0
100.00%
51-10
83.61%
WCS 2018
Neeb (offline)
19-2
90.48%
52-20
72.22%
WCS 2017*
All records via Aligulac.com *Winning tournaments only (Austin, Jönköping, and Montreal)
Has Steals the Show (and Our Hearts)
For most of his career, Has was considered a despicable cheese-monger who ruined tournaments by upsetting fan-favorite players. Only deviants and degenerates (raises both hands) could bring themselves to call themselves Has supporters.
At WCS Valencia, Has toppled star after star (Elazer, Kelazhur, Nerchio, ShoWTimE) in a spectacular run to the grand finals, becoming THE fan-favorite of the tournament in the process. It was as if he absorbed the popularity of each of his slain victims, like some kind of fandom vampire (no wonder they call him the 'black magician' in Korea). By the end, everyone outside of Finland was cheering the eccentric underdog on, hoping that even Serral might get PROTOSSED.
What. The. Hell. ?
It's transformation the likes of which I haven't seen since 2013, when duckdeok's tears washed away his facelessness to reveal a sympathetic kid who represented the suffering of an entire underclass of Korean progamers.
"You're already dead."
I'm not entirely sure what Has did differently this time around. He was as stubborn, cheesy, and vexing as ever—traits that had only brought him a cult following in the past. He happened to actually win a lot more games than he ever had, but winning was often what invited the most ire. Has was tolerated as a sideshow, but he forbidden from interfering in the main event.
It could be that I've just been misjudging fans' perception of Has this entire time. Perhaps the disdain was merely floating on the surface, seeping up as an involuntary, juvenile reaction to cheese. And perhaps, on the inside, everyone was ready to unironically love this unabashedly cheesy thing, like a group of 20's-ish friends discovering that the Backstreet Boys were, indeed, amazing.
The Kids Are AlrightHas was the #1 show-stealer at WCS Valencia, but the sixteen-year-old duo of Reynor and Clem also got a chance to light up the crowd as the opening act. Reynor made a solid quarterfinal run at his debut WCS Circuit event, and I'm interested to see how seriously Korean players take him at the upcoming Code S group selections (Aug 8). Clem looked much rougher around the edges, and it's hard to tell how good he could be. Getting to the level of a 2014-2015 MarineLord (rather underrated) would be great, but he might be capable of more.
In any case, I felt the hype surrounding the duo at WCS Valencia was a little too similar to that of traditional sports, where fans are more excited for potential than what they already have. I accept it as being an innate part of sports-fan psychology, but I was personally a bit tired of it after following weeks of NBA draft & Summer League coverage.
So, yeah, I was glad when Serral slammed Reynor 3-0 in a statement match. "How DARE you get excited about another foreigner when I haven't even shown you HALF of what I can do." said Serral as he flipped off the crowd, in one of my daydreams where he's much more interesting.
Neeb and Scarlett for SEO PurposesNo, I didn't actually manipulate any meta-data for search engines, but I figured I'd pay homage to this delightfully cheeky headline from SBNation.
Neeb and Scarlett have been seriously underwhelming on the 2018 WCS Circuit. Neeb was knocked out in the quarterfinals of WCS Valencia while Scarlett finished in the top 16. They are ranked #4 and #15, respectively, on the WCS Circuit Point Standings. You have to wonder if I'm only mentioning them here to cynically take advantage of their popularity.
First off, that's totally the case. Second, let's not forget that Neeb and Scarlett are the only foreigners besides Serral to win a noteworthy international tournament this year. IEM PyeongChang feels like it happened ages ago and the Hangzhou StarCraft Carnival has all sorts of asterisks on it, but the point still stands: Scarlett and Neeb defeated Korean pros to win tournaments with a lot of money on the line.
Neeb's #4 spot in the rankings would be totally respectable for any other player, but it's a huge letdown after seeing peak-Neeb in 2017. Dammit, Neeb, don't you know what these three years of region-locked WCS were for? Every scrap of legitimacy the WCS Circuit has clawed and scrapped for has gone to lay the foundation for Neeb vs Serral, a foreigner vs foreigner grand final that could equal or even outshine a GSL Code S. Serral's given you three chances. Now we're just waiting for you.
In Scarlett's case, her up-and-down career (complete with maybe-retirements) has taught us to temper expectations. I wasn't really surprised or disappointed when she fell back to earth after her career defining IEM PyeongChang win. Top 16 eliminations at Austin and Valencia? Shrug. Scarlett's gonna Scarlett.
Interestingly enough, WCS Valencia felt like a net-positive tournament in terms of hype. Scarlett is the ONLY foreigner to have defeated Serral in a BO5+ series during the WCS 2018 season (at the IEM PyeongChang) and she came within one game of repeating the feat at WCS Valencia. How far could she have gone if she had closed that series out? GSL vs. The World might give us a hint.
Careful, Scarlett is watching you post.
Credits and acknowledgements
Written and edited by: Wax Photos: Andre Hainke Statistics: Aligulac.com
I think comparing serral's vs foreigner stats with the ones of top koreans is fairly interesting and definitely adds legitimacy to the idea that he is basically at their level. Sadly it's only a proxy though, as long as the doesn't compete vs koreans regularly (which he could only in gsl) there will always be doubts. Man do i hope that he will try to play gsl one day and join the foreigner house for at least two seasons. I don't know his reasoning why he doesn't compete in gsl, but if it is nothing major he should just get his shit together and trash some koreans
Comparing Serral's results to that of Korean Pro's results without accounting for who they played is super questionable.
Who are the Koreans playing? If they aren't participating in a lot of online cups, they are only playing the non-Koreans who are going over to Korea to try to qualify for GSL or those they meet at the major offline events. Those are generally going to be the tier 1 and tier 2 non-Koreans.
Serral plays those players along with the tier 3 and tier 4 players. That inflates his win percentages.
I just want the lock to work both ways or just remove it.
If we're so confident that we can roll with the Koreans now, unlock the regions and let them come. We locked it because they were taking all our money, now we have someone else doing the same thing but it's okay because he's not Korean?
On July 24 2018 07:59 The_Red_Viper wrote: I think comparing serral's vs foreigner stats with the ones of top koreans is fairly interesting and definitely adds legitimacy to the idea that he is basically at their level. Sadly it's only a proxy though, as long as the doesn't compete vs koreans regularly (which he could only in gsl) there will always be doubts. Man do i hope that he will try to play gsl one day and join the foreigner house for at least two seasons. I don't know his reasoning why he doesn't compete in gsl, but if it is nothing major he should just get his shit together and trash some koreans
I guess he could bring makkari (or get it sent) but until the teamhouse have a sauna I don't think he'll go.
On July 24 2018 08:04 Boggyb wrote: Comparing Serral's results to that of Korean Pro's results without accounting for who they played is super questionable.
If I could make formulas to accurately account for opponent's strength, I'd be working for an NBA team (or just be a run-of-the-mill baseball nerd)
On July 24 2018 08:04 Boggyb wrote: Comparing Serral's results to that of Korean Pro's results without accounting for who they played is super questionable.
Who are the Koreans playing? If they aren't participating in a lot of online cups, they are only playing the non-Koreans who are going over to Korea to try to qualify for GSL or those they meet at the major offline events. Those are generally going to be the tier 1 and tier 2 non-Koreans.
Serral plays those players along with the tier 3 and tier 4 players. That inflates his win percentages.
Serral mostly plays the good foreigners as well, and some of the weaker foreigners (chinese, taiwanese) also try to qualify for gsl. Add wesg on top of that. It's really not that questionable to compare these stats. If you think it is go through them and more or less arbitrarily remove players you think shouldn't be considered, it won't matter a lot in serral's case, he simply dominates the top foreign scene, the people you consider tier 1 and 2 foreigners.
On July 24 2018 07:59 The_Red_Viper wrote: I think comparing serral's vs foreigner stats with the ones of top koreans is fairly interesting and definitely adds legitimacy to the idea that he is basically at their level. Sadly it's only a proxy though, as long as the doesn't compete vs koreans regularly (which he could only in gsl) there will always be doubts. Man do i hope that he will try to play gsl one day and join the foreigner house for at least two seasons. I don't know his reasoning why he doesn't compete in gsl, but if it is nothing major he should just get his shit together and trash some koreans
I guess he could bring makkari (or get it sent) but until the teamhouse have a sauna I don't think he'll go.
If it is really just him disliking the teamhouse enviroment i would be quite disappointed, playing in gsl and showing the world that you are on the level for it should be worth more than slight discomfort. He obviously can do whatever he wants, but it would be extremely disappointing if he never played in gsl because of rather trivial problems.
Well in Polt's final year in WCS (2016) he only had a record of 17–4 (80.95%) in matches so Serral is better than the best Korean in the region locked era (Polt does have an uptick of about 2% for each year you go back but that was his final year). viOLet was a respectable 55–35 (61.11%) in games and 22–11 (66.67%) in matches in 2016 against foreigners as well but viOLet was always more on the tier of the better foreigners rather than the better Koreans during his WCS stay. Hydra was 59–36 (62.11%) in games and 20–8 (71.43%) in matches while TRUE has been 182–95 (65.70%) in games and 71–26 (73.20%) in matches against foreigners since arriving in the WCS system.
Serral is clearly higher than any of those four though his 83.61% in matches isn't miles ahead of Polt at 80.95% but the other three Koreans fall short of Serral's glory in 2018. So I would say Serral compares very well with the best "foreign" Korean WCS had in Polt with a great win rate though I do think WCS is weaker now than it was a few years ago but that shouldn't diminish some insane work by Serral.
On July 24 2018 09:24 Topher_Doll wrote: ..,I do think WCS is weaker now than it was a few years ago but that shouldn't diminish some insane work by Serral.
I'm working with the Aligulac API to prove which era of WCS was the most competitive but my reasoning (unsupported outside of assumptions) is that the lack of Koreans along with a less consistent 2nd tier of foreigners has created a really top heavy WCS system. While players like ForGG and viOLet were never consistent top 4 players they almost always were top 8 players. Hydra in 2015 played like a GSL player and generally mauled the WCS system (until his play fell to the viOLet/ForGG level in 2016) and TRUE's crushing of WCS in 2016 was clear as well until he suffered the same fate as Hydra with the foreigner falloff. I also think there was a more competitive Ro8/Ro16 level foreigners during the final years of the semi-locked WCS system.
But I don't have much proof other than comparing the players at each event along with turnover at each level of the tournament. I do think Serral is better than the best foreigner in the HotS-LotV transition era (2015-2016) but I don't think the rest of WCS is as good. Aligulac research may prove my theory entirely wrong but just looking at the top 8 of tournaments in, say, 2015 to 2017 or 2018 I think WCS was stronger then as a whole. And this very brief discussion I didn't even delve into the WoL WCS system which was a bit more convoluted but the volume of Koreans then made it much more competitive.
And again, a player can't beat players who aren't competing so I can't fault Serral for peaking after they left (he was still in Challenger during that period). He's winning against the players who face him, that is all I can ask of him and he's nearly perfect at it. That is something to be proud of.
At this point this is mostly my opinion with a tiny bit of evidence, I'm no expert. I do think if we had Polt, ForGG, Jaedong, viOLet and Hydra in WCS now at their 2015 form, it would be at a higher level of skill than it is currently. But I'd love to hear from someone a bit more well versed like yourself.
On July 24 2018 09:24 Topher_Doll wrote: Well in Polt's final year in WCS (2016) he only had a record of 17–4 (80.95%) in matches so Serral is better than the best Korean in the region locked era (Polt does have an uptick of about 2% for each year you go back but that was his final year). viOLet was a respectable 55–35 (61.11%) in games and 22–11 (66.67%) in matches in 2016 against foreigners as well but viOLet was always more on the tier of the better foreigners rather than the better Koreans during his WCS stay. Hydra was 59–36 (62.11%) in games and 20–8 (71.43%) in matches while TRUE has been 182–95 (65.70%) in games and 71–26 (73.20%) in matches against foreigners since arriving in the WCS system.
Serral is clearly higher than any of those four though his 83.61% in matches isn't miles ahead of Polt at 80.95% but the other three Koreans fall short of Serral's glory in 2018. So I would say Serral compares very well with the best "foreign" Korean WCS had in Polt with a great win rate though I do think WCS is weaker now than it was a few years ago but that shouldn't diminish some insane work by Serral.
This is no joke, in terms of first 12 months on Aligulac (from 1st recorded match until 12 months later) no foreigner had a better 1st year than Scarlett by gaining 693 points. I haven't tracked everyone but only INno had a better 1st year that I've found. Scarlett's first year was incredible, she lost to only 1 foreigner at a LAN in her entire first 12 months, LucifroN who was nearing his peak in 2013.
Has!!!!! It is a miracle! His basic skills improved a lot,and his cheese arsenal grew larger. Wait him to cheese Maru into Sh*t at GSL vs. the World. (I don't know if I can put my highlight video here)
The fact that Serral dominates the foreign scene so hard that everyone–even fellow progamers–is certain he will win just goes to showcase the inherent flaw in region lock. As this article highlighted, Serral in 2018 has exerted an very Korean-esque influence on the foreign scene, where potential opponents basically just give up instead of competing.
Wasn't the whole point of region lock to foster growth in the foreign scene by removing the overwhelmingly oppressive shadow of far superior players? If pros like Mana or Heromarine are preemptively conceding, what is Serral if not an overwhelmingly oppressive shadow?
Getting a very Animal Farm vibe from this: "All foreigners are equal, but some foreigners are more equal than others."
On July 24 2018 12:31 pvsnp wrote: The fact that Serral dominates the foreign scene so hard that everyone–even fellow progamers–is certain he will win just goes to showcase the inherent flaw in region lock. As this article highlighted, Serral in 2018 has exerted an very Korean-esque influence on the foreign scene, where potential opponents basically just give up instead of competing.
Wasn't the whole point of region lock to foster growth in the foreign scene by removing the overwhelmingly oppressive shadow of far superior players? If pros like Mana or Heromarine are preemptively conceding, what is Serral if not an overwhelmingly oppressive shadow?
I'm getting a very Animal Farm vibe from this: "All foreigners are equal, but some foreigners are more equal than others."
One dominant player is hardly a problem. Whereas there were seasons of WCS America where the entire top 8 and most of the top 16 were Koreans
Serral actually plays in his region, thus contributing to it.
Saying that the 'whole point of region lock' was to remove oppressive players is grossly simplifying the reasoning behind it, and neglecting important facts such that these "oppressive players" came from the environment of team houses and thus had an infrastructural advantage over the local players
Your quote makes no sense--Serral isn't favoured by the system any more than the other players in the region.
You don't have to fit everything to your favourite agenda of region-lock being flawed
On July 24 2018 12:31 pvsnp wrote: The fact that Serral dominates the foreign scene so hard that everyone–even fellow progamers–is certain he will win just goes to showcase the inherent flaw in region lock. As this article highlighted, Serral in 2018 has exerted an very Korean-esque influence on the foreign scene, where potential opponents basically just give up instead of competing.
Wasn't the whole point of region lock to foster growth in the foreign scene by removing the overwhelmingly oppressive shadow of far superior players? If pros like Mana or Heromarine are preemptively conceding, what is Serral if not an overwhelmingly oppressive shadow?
I'm getting a very Animal Farm vibe from this: "All foreigners are equal, but some foreigners are more equal than others."
One dominant player is hardly a problem. Whereas there were seasons of WCS America where the entire top 8 and most of the top 16 were Koreans
Serral actually plays in his region, thus contributing to it.
Saying that the 'whole point of region lock' was to remove oppressive players is grossly simplifying the reasoning behind it, and neglecting important facts such that these "oppressive players" came from the environment of team houses and thus had an infrastructural advantage over the local players
Your quote makes no sense--Serral isn't favoured by the system any more than the other players in the region.
You don't have to fit everything to your favourite agenda of region-lock being flawed
And very nice article.
I was actually just thinking about removing the quote since I dislike the political implications that go along with Animal Farm. Politics doesn't have much to do with this. But since you replied I might as well leave it so as to not be an Orwellian editor.
Conversely, I was also wondering whether I should go through the trouble of writing something lengthier on why region lock has produced Serral, its own pseudo-Korean. Your points notwithstanding, I'm confident I could craft a decent argument as to how Serral is detrimental to the foreign scene in much the same way as the Koreans were. Problem is, I'm afraid it will just incite pointless controversy since people are pretty dogmatic about region-lock already.
And yes, I agree that it's a very nice article from Wax.
On July 24 2018 09:24 Topher_Doll wrote: Well in Polt's final year in WCS (2016) he only had a record of 17–4 (80.95%) in matches so Serral is better than the best Korean in the region locked era (Polt does have an uptick of about 2% for each year you go back but that was his final year). viOLet was a respectable 55–35 (61.11%) in games and 22–11 (66.67%) in matches in 2016 against foreigners as well but viOLet was always more on the tier of the better foreigners rather than the better Koreans during his WCS stay. Hydra was 59–36 (62.11%) in games and 20–8 (71.43%) in matches while TRUE has been 182–95 (65.70%) in games and 71–26 (73.20%) in matches against foreigners since arriving in the WCS system.
Serral is clearly higher than any of those four though his 83.61% in matches isn't miles ahead of Polt at 80.95% but the other three Koreans fall short of Serral's glory in 2018. So I would say Serral compares very well with the best "foreign" Korean WCS had in Polt with a great win rate though I do think WCS is weaker now than it was a few years ago but that shouldn't diminish some insane work by Serral.
Res Polt please
Polt had insane game IQ and general intelligence - the guy basically went to the top university in Korea, went to Texas, picked up the English language relatively quickly, and stayed relevant for a really long time. First-ballot SC2 hall of famer
I think it is worth noting that players such as ByuN, Solar, Impact and Dear have 2018 season win-rates (against non-koreans) of 83.33%, 80.81%, 67.27% and 86.00% respectively. Putting these win-rates to perspective, I would not necessarily say that Serral is at the skill level of a top Korean (if you define it as being the very best players like Rogue and Maru). Nonetheless, by the standard of Koreans he would still be a very good player.
WCS
by Wax![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/bird_blue_16.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/WCS2018/Valencia/valenciaserral.jpg)
Has was considered a despicable cheese-monger who ruined tournaments by upsetting fan-favorite players. Only deviants and degenerates (raises both hands) could bring themselves to call themselves Has supporters. ![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/WCS2018/Valencia/valenciahas.jpg)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/WCS2018/Valencia/valenciascarlett.jpg)
