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GSL Ro16 Preview: soO's Vengeance Fiesta

Forum Index > SC2 General
31 CommentsPost a Reply
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GSL Ro16 Preview: soO's Vengeance Fiesta

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
May 25th, 2018 01:15 GMT

Code S Ro16: soO's Vengeance Fiesta

by Destructicon
[image loading] - TL_Destructicon

The opening group of the GSL RO16 was lopsided, with reigning champion. The next group promises to be much, much closer, with three out of the four players considered to be the true heavyweights of the scene. While some of the specific 1v1 match-ups might seem predictable on paper, in reality this is a group where anything could happen.

Oh, and soO is facing three players who handed him finals losses.

Global StarCraft 2 League Code S - 2018 Season 2

Group B - soO, Dear, INnoVation, Rogue

Start time: Saturday, May 26 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Once again, (Wiki)soO just can’t seem to catch a break in the group nominations. Last season, INnoVation spoiled soO's balanced, perfectly-okay group by swapping in aLive at the last moment (soO struggled against Terran then, as he continues to do so now). Somehow, INnoVation managed to ruin soO's day again, although this time by no fault of his own—Maru thrust INnoVation into soO's group as his final move. Despite Maru’s interference, soO still has very solid chance to make it to the quarterfinals, and exact some sweet, sweet revenge along the way.

soO's first target is an old rival in (Wiki)Dear, the player who handed soO his first runner-up finish in 2013. While he's far from his old championship form, Dear has done well to remain a stalwart of the Korean scene. He's made the RO16 in both Code S seasons so far, and went on a not-so-surprising quarterfinal run at IEM Katowice. He regularly faces—though doesn't quite break even against—the likes of Maru, INnoVation, and Stats. In many ways Dear is shaping up to take the place of Curious as gatekeeper of the GSL—good but not great, separating the RO16 wheat from the RO32 chaff. He has the potential to beat any of this group's opponents on his best day, but those days seem long and far in between. Regarding soO's revenge: back in 2013, soO's ZvP lagged behind his overwhelming ZvT. However, things have reversed in 2018. Over the past three months, ZvP has been soO's strongest match-up at a 72.73% win-rate, and it's no surprise that soO hand-picked Dear as his first opponent.

Next on the hit-list is (Wiki)INnoVation. The former teammates won Proleague together on SKT, but it was INnoVation who prevailed over soO in their two individual league finals clashes at IEM and GSL. INnoVation forced his way into the best-of-all-time discussion by posting consistently great result over the course of his career, but 2018 has been a setback year. Patch 4.0.0 was clearly not kind to the Machine, and despite recalibration and firmware updates, he's still struggling to re-enter the championship picture. Nothing short of a finals run will allow us to get over the beating he took in March's IEM Katowice, where he went 1-4 in the group stage (losses to Solar, Dark, Hurricane, and uThermal). His GSL Super Tournament run was decent, thrashing Rogue and losing a close series to herO, but he's still not the unstoppable force we're used to seeing.

However, what might be more telling than anything is other players' attitude towards INnoVation. No one was willing to pick him during the RO16 group nominations, a 'honor' typically reserved for the most feared player. It’s clear that INnoVation commands a great deal of respect despite his lack of results. His overall 66.41% win rate over the last three months indicates that he's still a machine at churning out wins, and he just needs to bring out his best play in important matches. soO was right to despair when INnoVation landed in his group, as he might seem like an insurmountable obstacle given soO's weak ZvT. However, considering INnoVation's weakness to cheese (who knows, maybe it gunks up the cogs and gears?), soO might find a way yet. The larger question looms: has INnoVation managed to patch out all his weaknesses, or will the other players find holes in his armor to exploit?

Finally, we have (Wiki)Rogue, who dealt soO his most expensive finals loss ever at BlizzCon 2017. One most wonder if soO has been simmering with rage ever since—not because he lost to Rogue, but because Rogue has swung between gross complacency and ruthless domination ever since. He flopped out in the RO32 of the first GSL of 2018, but bounced right back to make a monster run at IEM Katowice. There, Rogue proved that his star had not gone nova, and that his brilliance would continue to burn on, as he slew Impact, Hurricane, TY, Maru and Classic to win $200,000. Soon after earning such a huge payday and proving all his doubters wrong, Rogue proceeded to flop out of the first round of the GSL Super Tournament.

Rogue is perhaps the most interesting Zerg player right now. We know he has the potential to be the best player in the world, but only when he wants to be. He's defeated the elite opponents that other Zerg players have struggled against. Maru, the best TvZ player in the world right now, fell 2-3 to Rogue at IEM. Stats, Super Tournament champion and Code S runner-up, fell 0-2 to Rogue in the previous GSL round. On the other hand. Rogue also has the weird habit of losing to other players he should have no business losing to, like Zest in the GSL Super Tournament qualifier, aLive and ByuL in the GSL qualifier or herO in various online cups. Rogue’s brilliance is tainted, his world-champion class marred by a weakness to opponents a tier bellow him.

soO’s ZvZ, while not as impeccable as it has been in previous years, is still a force to be reckoned with. soO still beats the likes of Impact, Leenock, and ByuL regularly, and it takes stronger Zergs such as Dark and Rogue to present a challenge. No one should relish a match with Rogue, but if one were to catch him on the right day... soO might emerge with a modicum of revenge.

Predictions

While I don’t consider this to be the official 'group of death' of this season, it is still incredibly close and subject to volatility. All the players have a real chance here and many of the results could come down to split second decision making, brilliant gambits, or just plain luck. I, however, am going to go with soO and Rogue to advance. soO should be able to defeat Dear and Rogue has the slyness and wits to beat INnoVation. Rogue might have beat soO at BlizzCon, but that's when he was fully engaged and at maximum strength. Historically, soO has always been the better bet in ZvZ. Dear’s PvT is actually extremely good and is strong enough to beat INnoVation, who has never looked comfortable in post 4.0 TvP. And Rogue, while prone to weird implosions, should be strong enough to beat Dear.

soO 2 – 1 Dear
INnoVation 1 – 2 Rogue
soO 2 – 0 Rogue
Dear 2 – 0 INnoVation
Rogue 2 – 0 Dear

soO and Rogue to advance.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Destructicon
Editor: Wax
Photo: leimmia
Statistics: Aligulac.com
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TL+ Member
pvsnp
Profile Joined January 2017
7676 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-25 01:40:46
May 25 2018 01:29 GMT
#2
I'll just leave this here:

[image loading]


NB: Dear does have a masters account at 6800. Also, Rogue's Protoss account likely belongs to sOs/Trap.

As far as actual predictions goes, Inno plus one of the Zergs. By my estimation:

soO > Dear
Rogue > Dear
Inno > Dear
soO = Rogue
Inno = Rogue
Inno > soO

While I would say that Rogue is probably the strongest overall player in Group B, the way the group is set up is such that Inno actually has the best chance of advancing. Whereas Rogue has to play ZvZ against soO and ZvT against Inno–their strongest MUs respectively–Inno gets to play his strongest MU twice and faces a relatively weak Protoss (Dear) in his weakest MU. Rogue on the other hand is strongest in ZvP, but he'll need to beat at least one of soO or Inno to advance.
Denominator of the Universe
TL+ Member
ZigguratOfUr
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Iraq16955 Posts
May 25 2018 01:34 GMT
#3
Is Dear's PvT really that good? He plays his stargate playstyle reasonably well, but it's also the most one dimensional of any Protoss near the top, which in a preparation tournament is a huge detriment.
seopthi
Profile Blog Joined December 2014
391 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-25 01:46:17
May 25 2018 01:45 GMT
#4
By a coincidence, Dear and Inno met in the finals of KungFu Cap today, and Inno won 3-2 coming back from a 0-2 deficit. Also, Dear beat Rogue 2-0 in an earlier round.
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
May 25 2018 02:17 GMT
#5
soO gonna go angry zerg mode on Rogue to advance first place.

Rogue vs Inno is a complete coinflip. Both have champions in them, but also some seriously bad showings so far this year.
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
c0sm0naut
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1229 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-25 03:24:46
May 25 2018 03:19 GMT
#6
(Z)soO 2 – 0 (P)Dear
(T)INnoVation 2 -1 (Z)Rogue

(Z)soO advances to the Round of 4

i agree with ur predictions, am excited
c0sm0naut
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1229 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-25 03:23:18
May 25 2018 03:22 GMT
#7
On May 25 2018 10:34 ZigguratOfUr wrote:
Is Dear's PvT really that good? He plays his stargate playstyle reasonably well, but it's also the most one dimensional of any Protoss near the top, which in a preparation tournament is a huge detriment.


i think dear would feel he has better chances vs inno than rogue or soo in this group, but that's just my feeling, those zergs are really good in longer series, and they own against toss. however apparently soo beat rogue recently ? i didnt see
shortistuff
Profile Joined December 2013
Australia14 Posts
May 25 2018 03:58 GMT
#8
Just fyi front page link takes you to the group a preview
EzioAs
Profile Joined September 2017
235 Posts
May 25 2018 04:41 GMT
#9
I predict Dear and Rogue...

....to get kicked out this round.

Let's go soO & INno
花は桜木人は武士
nordakker
Profile Joined May 2018
2 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-05-25 07:13:42
May 25 2018 07:13 GMT
#10
As a biggest soO fan I'm affraid of his stubborness tactics. Many times I've seen he sticks to one no matter how MU goes (vs Rogue in Blizzcon final not reacting to speelings all-ins or vs Stats in semi-finals GSL 18 season 1). I would love him to do some fancy play like hatch proxy, nydus or ultras drops to catch oppo like Rogue is doing. Anyway will pray for him.
DBooN
Profile Joined May 2011
Germany2727 Posts
May 25 2018 08:10 GMT
#11
Not sure what soOs current form is like, but he's the best so he should win this season of GSL!
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
May 25 2018 08:23 GMT
#12
Im gonna go out on a limb and say

Dear 2 - 0 soO
Innovation 2-1 Rogue
Dear 2-1 Innovation
Rogue 2-0 soO
Rogue 2-0 Innovation
FrostedMiniWheats
Profile Joined August 2010
United States30730 Posts
May 25 2018 09:35 GMT
#13
(Z)soO 2-1 (P)Dear
(T)Bogus 2-0 (Z)Rogue
(T)Bogus 2-0 (Z)soO
(P)Dear 0-2 (Z)Rogue
(Z)soO 1-2 (Z)Rogue
NesTea | Mvp | MC | Leenock | Losira | Gumiho | DRG | Taeja | Jinro | Stephano | Thorzain | Sen | Idra |Polt | Bomber | Symbol | Squirtle | Fantasy | Jaedong | Maru | sOs | Seed | ByuN | ByuL | Neeb| Scarlett | Rogue | IM forever
Boggyb
Profile Joined January 2017
2855 Posts
May 25 2018 13:14 GMT
#14
(Z)soO 2-1 (P)Dear
(Z)Rogue 2-1 (T)INnoVation
(Z)Rogue 2-0 (Z)soO
(T)INnoVation 2-0 (P)Dear
(T)INnoVation 2-1 (Z)soO
Fango
Profile Joined July 2016
United Kingdom8987 Posts
May 25 2018 13:28 GMT
#15
(Z)soO 2-0 (P)Dear
(T)INnoVation 2-1 (Z)Rogue
(T)INnoVation 2-0 (Z)soO
(Z)Rogue 2-1 (P)Dear
(Z)soO 2-0 (Z)Rogue
Zest, sOs, PartinG, Dark, and Maru are the real champs. ROOT_herO is overrated. Snute, Serral, and Scarlett are the foreigner GOATs
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
May 25 2018 14:03 GMT
#16
soO > Dear
Rogue > INnoVation
soO > Rogue
Dear > INnoVation
Dear > Rogue
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
May 25 2018 15:05 GMT
#17
Do your thing SoO
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
EEk1TwEEk
Profile Joined June 2017
Russian Federation142 Posts
May 25 2018 15:52 GMT
#18
Rogue moves on to the round of 4 slaying Inno, soO and Zest
This man suffers from a bad heart, but I have plenty of medicine.
EmNGiantNome
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States126 Posts
May 25 2018 16:19 GMT
#19
Pretty good analysis. But Dear likely won't take a match, meaning Rogue will defeat InNoVation twice.
dave81
Profile Joined May 2018
United States50 Posts
May 25 2018 16:49 GMT
#20
I have Rogue and Innovation getting out but I wish it where Rogue and Dear. However I cannot bet my heart at this time.
SoS, PartingG, Trap, Maru, Rogue for the win!
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