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Rewriting Expectations: Stats in the GSL Finals

Forum Index > SC2 General
25 CommentsPost a Reply
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Rewriting Expectations: Stats in the GSL Finals

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
March 30th, 2018 09:06 GMT

Rewriting Expectations: Stats in the GSL Finals

Written by Mizenhauer
@Mizenhauer [image loading]

GSL is an odyssey. Thirty-two aspirants take the field, but only one is left standing. As fans, we watch fervently. We wake up early. We stay up late. We might not sleep at all. We pour our hearts into the competition, in hope that we might give the smallest bit of inspiration to our favorite players. We burden them with our expectations, demanding they fulfill dreams that are incongruous with reality. It's not objectivity we need, though. Emotion is what makes StarCraft II more magnificent than reality.

Each match is another part of an ongoing epic, the tapestry of our fan experience. Here within, progamers are more than caricatures—they're heroes as grand as any figure from classic myth. An iron rule was broken when Stats dispatched soO; a shadowy legacy was reaffirmed when Dark fell at Maru's hands. Soon, this chapter will end. One player will stand as GSL champion, the greatest in the world.


(Wiki)2018 Global StarCraft II League Season 1/Code S

According to most people, (Wiki)Stats shouldn't be here.

The winds of public opinion have harangued him all season. If Liquibet participants are to be believed, Stats should have fallen in the round of 16. A fellow TeamLiquid.net writer had Stats being eliminated as early as the RO32. Gamblers, with their cold, hard cash on the line, have bet against Stats almost every single step of the way.

However, Stats doesn't care what anyone else thinks. Odds, records, projection, possibilities—he brushes them off as if he was a faun untouched by human musings. After Stats escaped the GSL RO16 by the skin of his teeth, he gave his doubters plenty of reason to feel justified. He had a disastrous showing at IEM Katowice that inspired little confidence in his long term prospects back home. With a PvP versus (Wiki)Classic coming in the quarterfinals, Stats would surely be packing his mouse and keyboard up. Yes, Rogue also dismantled Classic at IEM, but that loss didn't tarnish Classic's reputation as the #1 Protoss up to that point. There was nothing personal about expecting Stats to lose. He simply hadn't shown form worthy of consideration.


Didn't see that one coming.

Stats didn't hear us the first few times we marked his grave, and he certainly paid no heed when we marked his semifinal match with (Wiki)soO as the end of his road. Shows what we know. Throughout this GSL, Stats has been clomping through our would-be archives, tearing up our drafts of StarCraft II history, and filling his victories in with ink.


Wait, what?

Long cast as the safe, reliable player, Stats is proving little by little that we had him figured out all wrong. "Safe" is a reputation that's persisted from our complacency. We've never gotten over the 2015 depiction of Stats as a player who was incapable of imposing his will with decisive, game-changing plays. Less than a week ago, he employed brute force and guile in equal measures in his comeback win over soO. The seven game series was but a taste of the menagerie of builds and strategies Stats has been cultivating since the release of StarCraft's third expansion, one he has dominated to the tune of ten top 4 or better finishes—eight more than his finals opponent. Whoo! At least we got the "reliable" part right.

Stats' transformation from challenger, to junior kong, to champion, to immovable pillar of the scene has been one of the most phenomenal developments of LotV. The version of Stats that will take on Maru is nothing like the one who crumbled against Dark in his first final, two years ago. A monster has grown before our very eyes, and we barely even noticed.

One has to wonder how results could have piled up with so little attention being paid to them. Either Stats is overperforming or he is being underestimated. A case can be made for either.

If you value online results, then Stats is surely overperforming in the GSL. His poor form in online events has become a calling card. He doesn't sweep through online qualifiers, he doesn't casually dismantle lesser players in online cups, and he rarely resides at the top of the ladder. Even moving offline, Stats' loss to Poland's souL at IEM Katowice seemed to make it undeniable that he was horribly out of form.

On the other hand, if you believe that the true nature of a competitor is only revealed in moments of extreme adversity, then Stats' journey proves he is being shamefully underrated. Winning GSL early in 2017 should have rendered him unforgettable, but he slipped from our attention with eerie speed. Everyone was focused on Dark in 2017's SSL Season 2 finals, but it was Stats who seized the championship. Stats' arrival in the GSL finals is merely the latest act of defiance against an egregious history of lowballing.

Stats has realized something few fans internalize, and few players have the means to utilize: it only takes seven matches to win GSL Code S. Each year, there are only a handful of meaningful tournaments, in terms of either prize money or prestige. Within those tournaments, a handful high pressure matches decide which players will leave with anything of lasting value. Stats has found a way to win the confrontations which matter most. As fans, we obsess over online cups and qualifiers because we're addicted to StarCraft II and learning the tiniest bit more about it. Stats knows StarCraft better than any of us ever will. He definitely knows which tournaments will define his legacy.

So, that's three times Stats should have died by our estimation. He's on his fourth life headed in the finals, and finds himself facing a death sentence once again. We see Maru near the top of the StarCraft world, needing to take just one more step to reach its absolute apex. Meanwhile, we envision Stats looking up a staircase—he's already one million steps up, but there's another million ahead of him. We're trying to figure out what Stats could do to beat the odds again. All-ins that cripple Maru early? Novel late-game compositions that he won't expect? All this, and more, is on our minds as we prepare to plunge again into our StarCraft II addiction. But maybe, just maybe, it's time we started to entertain a new fantasy: the odds were never against Stats in the first place.



Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Mizenhauer
Editors: CosmicSpiral, Wax
Photo: Helena Kristiansson via Blizzard
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TL+ Member
Mun_Su
Profile Joined December 2012
France2063 Posts
March 30 2018 09:08 GMT
#2
Good write !
INno <3 - TY - Maru - Taeja - Rain <3 - Classic <3 - Stephano <3 - soO <3 - Soulkey - Dark - SERRAL =O / END REGION LOCK
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33362 Posts
March 30 2018 09:24 GMT
#3
On March 30 2018 18:08 Mun_Su wrote:
Good write !


suspiciously fast read time
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
Ej_
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
47656 Posts
March 30 2018 09:30 GMT
#4
Good read!
"Technically the dictionary has zero authority on the meaning or words" - Rodya
Mun_Su
Profile Joined December 2012
France2063 Posts
March 30 2018 09:50 GMT
#5
On March 30 2018 18:24 Waxangel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 30 2018 18:08 Mun_Su wrote:
Good write !


suspiciously fast read time



I'm a fast guy

INno <3 - TY - Maru - Taeja - Rain <3 - Classic <3 - Stephano <3 - soO <3 - Soulkey - Dark - SERRAL =O / END REGION LOCK
ArtyK
Profile Joined June 2011
France3143 Posts
March 30 2018 09:58 GMT
#6
I'll take Durns job temporarily "He he definitely knows which tournaments will define his legacy."

Good read tho :>
Sup dood ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ KiWiKaKi | SLush | uThermal | PtitDrogo | SortOf | Clem ~ "I told my mom she should vote for me in Nation Wars, she said 'I dunno, I kinda want Finland to win'" – Luolis ~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_NScWV9h8k#t=1h01m
TL+ Member
LuLuneth
Profile Blog Joined July 2017
30 Posts
March 30 2018 10:04 GMT
#7
Good read indeed
DieuCure
Profile Joined January 2017
France3713 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-30 10:06:18
March 30 2018 10:05 GMT
#8
Good read Mizenhauer OP, that said he has played only few TvP recently, they all went wrong, and he seemed weak against cheesy builds.

soO played in his hand, but i dont think Maru will make the same mistake.
TL+ Member
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13974 Posts
March 30 2018 10:45 GMT
#9
Yay Miz wrote a Stats article ^^
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
D-light
Profile Joined April 2012
Finland7364 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-30 11:05:49
March 30 2018 11:05 GMT
#10
Agreed.

Well write.
why even
Toua
Profile Joined February 2017
Denmark318 Posts
March 30 2018 11:23 GMT
#11
Great read
Stats, Dark, Maru <3
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4906 Posts
March 30 2018 11:27 GMT
#12
i cant wait for the finals!

also ": it only takes seven matches to win GSL Code S" didnt realized before!
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
Jimmon
Profile Joined May 2011
United States112 Posts
March 30 2018 12:04 GMT
#13
Been a Stats fan since KT <3
I love LOveRH
The_Red_Viper
Profile Blog Joined August 2013
19533 Posts
March 30 2018 12:29 GMT
#14
Great read, it's a curious case with some of the protoss players. Stats is always undervalued, he even was when he was on a total streak of consistentency of always finishing ro4 or better in basically every premier tournament.
With that being said, this time there certainly were good reasons to bet against him, Stats still delivered though and maybe we should have watched more closely when he did beat classic in the ro32, the player everyone thought to be the best in the world. (at least anyone who looks closely, funnily enough classic is always forgotten by the mass audience as well)

I still believe that Maru will take it this time though, stats' tvp results in the last three months are quite underwhelming, his only wins are versus rather low lvl koreans while losing vs byun, alive and maru himself. The games start in less than a day though, we will know soon enough
IU | Sohyang || There is no God and we are his prophets | For if ‘Thou mayest’—it is also true that ‘Thou mayest not.” | Ignorance is the parent of fear |
Veluvian
Profile Joined December 2011
Bulgaria256 Posts
March 30 2018 13:10 GMT
#15
Stats always plays good under high pressure and shows the necessary positivity. Even now he could be still underrated against Maru, but I like that possition for him. Stats reminds me for Rain all the time with his evolution. Now he is not so deffencive as he used to be especially in KT days. When Rain became GSL champion he was so flexible and dynamic, using DT's, rushes sometimes, airtoss play, early micro blink stalkers in PvPs... Right now Stats showed that he can do anything beyond the standard play. In my view he is still the one who uses the Oracles better than anyone rather he mentioned recently that Classic is the best with oracles. It is curious how an underrated player could instantly become a living legend before people realize how good he is with an eventual 2nd Code S title. Yes, my favourite players failed to reach the final, but still I am happy for Stats. I don't like Maru, but the way he beat Dark was fully deserved and he looked really scarily prepared this is why Maru has slightly more chances to take the trophy. But so many players learned the hard way that Stats plays against the odds.
Oz; MMA; Rain; sOs; Classic, Soulkey, TY, Dark
fronkschnonk
Profile Joined November 2011
Germany622 Posts
March 30 2018 13:18 GMT
#16
On March 30 2018 20:27 Argonauta wrote:
i cant wait for the finals!

also ": it only takes seven matches to win GSL Code S" didnt realized before!

Well, if he wins it will have taken eight matches for him
Furthermore, I consider that some kind of Code A must be reestablished.
DSh1
Profile Joined April 2017
292 Posts
March 30 2018 13:38 GMT
#17
Surely, Stats wanted to lose the other games outside of GSL ... . Prize money in WESG and IEM doesn't even bother him. Actually he went to Katowice to sightsee.

Interpretation: nice read, but last paragraphs are a bit farfetched.
quirinus
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Croatia2489 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-30 14:39:42
March 30 2018 14:27 GMT
#18
Stats was an underappreciated powerhouse and a very consistent player even during the bw days. It's no surprise that, now that he's not forced to put the team first, he's consistently at the top.

It's funny how people disregarded him in bw just because of the lack of accomplishments in OSL/MSL, yet he played some truly sick starcraft back in the day (Proleague).

Looks like history might be repeating itself in SC2, but with a twist.
All candles lit within him, and there was purity. | First auto-promoted BW LP editor.
terran4lyfe
Profile Joined December 2013
United States72 Posts
March 30 2018 18:29 GMT
#19
Mizenhauer is the best thing to happen to the TL writing staff.
glhf
leublix
Profile Joined May 2017
493 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-30 20:07:50
March 30 2018 20:07 GMT
#20
Finally a Stats article :D

Great job Mizenhauer, loved it.

I still think he is the underdog in the final
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