by Destructicon

Before IEM Katowice, this was one of the hottest and most anticipated of the Ro8 matches. Both soO and Scarlett had performed well in the Ro16 of the GSL, with The Queen of Blades earning serious credibility points by defeating both INnoVation and Zest. Meanwhile, soO looked like his usual, solid self, overcoming his 'weak' ZvT to defeat aLive twice and earn a quarterfinal berth.

Riding such a wave of momentum, Scarlett and soO seemed poised to make an impact at IEM. Instead, both Zergs flopped out in the RO76 double-elimination stage in a rather perplexing manner. Both Scarlett and soO lost in their best match-ups of ZvZ and ZvP, respectively, with Scarlett being ousted by Guru and TRUE, while soO was defeated by the combined efforts of Harstem and Losira.

As such, predicting the results of this series based on form or win-rates seems to be an even more difficult proposition than usual (Scarlett is 65-29 in ZvZ in 2018, soO is 24-12). We must think about their play styles.

Scarlett is slightly more aggressive than soO, and uses her fair share of early-game builds to either kill or setup a good mid-game transition. She also has a preference for mutalisk based play—much more so than other Zergs (Koreans, especially). This does come at the cost of some refinement in roach/hydra based mid-game play.

Statistically, soO is one of the best Zerg vs Zerg players ever—and while he’s struggled a bit lately—he is still a fearsome opponent. While not as aggressive as Scarlett, soO has always played a strong all-around game with enough all-ins to keep his opponents honest. In particular, soO is masterful at the roach-hydra phase of the game, where he is rarely outproduced or outmaneuvered.

I anticipate that if the two make it an early-game knife fight, soO will get the upper hand due to his experience and mechanics. If soO doesn't win early, he should be able to set himself up for a strong mid-game. Scarlett's muta tactics are something soO should look out for, but Scarlett will struggle to make mutas work from a disadvantageous position against an opponent of soO's caliber.

Prediction

Overall, I believe that soO is still favored, despite his misadventures in Poland. He's the most resilient and consistent player in GSL history, and his experience has never failed him at this stage of the tournament.

soO 3 – 1 Scarlett

Much like the other quarterfinalists on this side of the bracket, the Protoss duo of Classic and Stats had their stock riding high headed into IEM Katowice. Now that IEM has concluded, this bout is looking more one-sided than it initially seemed.

Stats started 2018 on a bit of a downturn—failing to qualify for IEM PyeongChang and IEM Katowice through online play. However, he looked as solid as ever in the GSL, even advancing as first place in his RO32 group over the much-hyped Classic. His PvP was in question headed into the RO16, but he still managed to survive Protoss Purgatory to reach the quarterfinals. While his play didn't have the same luster as his early 2017 performances, Stats still looked like a dangerous opponent who would come through in important matches. At IEM Katowice, however, Stats lost in RO76 "qualifier" to Maru before being eliminated by the foreigner souL in a shock upset. For a player who finished runner-up in the last IEM World Championship, it cast serious doubt on his current form.

Classic, on the other hand, has been consistently impressive all throughout 2018. He's been strong in online qualifiers, and he cruised through his GSL Ro16 group over Maru and Dear. While his IEM Katowice run ended in a brutal 0-4 defeat to Rogue in the finals, he was on a monster run up to that point. He racked up a 5-0 series score in the group stage (10-1 on maps), with convincing wins over both sOs and Trap. Classic went on to confidently defeat both Dear and Serral in the quarters and semis before ultimately succumbing to a resurgent Rogue. While the manner in which he lost the final has shown him to be mortal, it has not significantly diminished his aura of strength.

What Classic needs to watch out for is the early game shenanigans that allowed Stats to score an upset in the RO32. Classic's mid and late game are a force to be reckoned with—heck, his early game is strong as well. But he can be susceptible to all-ins, as Stats showed earlier in the GSL. If Classic can shore up his last weakness, he should be able to easily take the rematch.

Prediction

I’m going to go with Classic here. Even as he has racked up wins over strong opponents in all match-ups, his PvP victories have stood out the most. He shouldn’t underestimate a cornered and desperate Stats, but all signs point to a Classic victory.

Classic 3 – 1 Stats

While both combatants have come back from IEM looking worse for wear, their recent form still suggests this quarterfinal will be a one-sided affair.

Zest has been struggling for the entirety of the year. The fact that he's made it to the GSL RO8 is actually the outlier result of his 2018, and he hasn't looked good in getting this far. Zest barely scraped by after losing haplessly against soO in the RO32, and he floundered in another loss to Scarlett in the RO16.

Zest's performances in the IEM PyeongChang and Katowice qualifiers shone a ray of hope upon the former KT Protoss, but such hopes were dashed upon the rocks each time. At IEM PyeongChang he was eliminated in the Ro8 by Elazer, and at Katowice he was eliminated in the group stage with a 1-4 record with losses against Impact, Rogue, Serral and finally Neeb.

The large sample of major tournament losses makes it quite clear that Zest struggles immensely against Zerg, and his 47.50% overall PvZ win rate over the past 2 months corroborates this point. It’s looking awfully gloomy for Zest unless he prepares some really dirty, dirty all-ins well thought out builds and abuses the strengths of his race.

While Dark was eliminated from Katowice in the RO12—much earlier than he would have wanted—he still looked solid overall, winning convincingly against INnoVation and TRUE and putting up a fierce fight against Hurricane, Solar in the group stage. Dark’s ultimate downfall came at the hands of Trap, but it came after a long and hard fought series. It could also be that Trap simply has Dark figured out, as evidenced by his 7-4 win in the ONPOONG Ultimate Battle series they played in the beginning of January.

Although it is fair to say Dark has also struggled slightly against Protoss, he doesn't come close to comparing to Zest's struggles against Zerg. When Dark loses, it's in tight series and games that go down to the wire.

Prediction
While his recent results haven’t been spectacular, Dark has still remained fairly consistent. He doesn’t completely dominate, but he never seems powerless in a series or game. Zest’s PvZ, on the other hand, has just been atrocious. Bar him managing to magically replicate Trap’s style, this will be where he falls.

Zest 0 – 3 Dark

2018 Global StarCraft II League, Season 1: Code S

Quarterfinals: Match 1 & 2 - Friday, Mar 09 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)
soO vs Scarlett
Classic vs Stats

Quarterfinals: Match 3 & 4 - Saturday, Mar 10 4:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Zest vs Dark
Maru vs sOs