Making the Grade: Code S Group Selections

Written by Mizenhauer
Photo by leimmia


The Group Selections is a highlight of every GSL season. A deep tournament run hinges on having the right opponent at the right time, and the pros do their best to maneuver themselves into the best positions possible. One wrong choice and the whole campaign could crumble before it even starts. There are also plenty of laughs to be had, as the players indulge in a convoluted dance of compliments, trash talk, and truly confusing logic.

There are many ways to approach the selections. Some players, such as PartinG, have gone in with the explicit goal of sowing chaos, assembling a Group of Death. More often, players take the path of herO, quietly attempting to assemble the easiest possible quartet.

There may not be any games going on, but it could only be considered a missed opportunity if I didn’t take this opportunity to critique the players on something other than their multitasking, mechanics, and my personal bias. I’ve decided to grade the four seed-holders on how they performed in the draft, as they looked to pave their roads to the quarterfinals.

Granted, they played very little part in the proceedings beyond their initial pick. But why should that stop me? If someone drops a penny off the Empire State Building, they’re the only one to blame if it hits the sidewalk, ricochets into a taxi’s windshield, and causes a twenty car pile-up that makes 10,000 people late for work. It’s all about who got the ball rolling.

INnoVation (#1 seed) - Grade: A+

Group A: INnoVation, Leenock, Zest, Scarlett

INnoVation couldn’t have done any better. Going in, everyone knew who INnoVation was taking with his first pick, and he snatched Leenock off the board before anyone else got a chance. INnoVation is 14-3 in lifetime matches against Leenock and has only lost three games to him since 2015 (he has won 23 times). It’s as much of a slam dunk as you’ll ever see in Korean StarCraft II.

Taking the weakest player with the first pick is easy, though. INnoVation had to wait for seven players to pass by before seeing who else he'd face. Leenock decided to go with Zest, a choice which should have left INnoVation satisfied. Although Zest has enjoyed a resurgence post-BlizzCon resurgence, he’s been the model of inconsistency. Regardless of what other people say about PvT, Zest has managed to drop matches to ByuN, aLive, TY and even Forte.

Just as everyone assumed INnoVation would pick Leenock, they were also certain he would exercise his swap privilege as the #1 overall seed to bring Scarlett to his group. INnoVation has lost a few matches against Scarlett in the past, but he came out on top in their only previous meeting in GSL. He also beat her 10-1 in an ONPOONG event a little more than a year ago.

As it turns out, a silver tongue was all that was required. INnoVation convinced Zest to use his own pick to bring Scarlett to the group, so the duo might advance together after beating up on the two Zerg weaklings. Leenock protested, pleading to Zest that he should use his pick to pressure INnoVation instead. Alas, Zest was deaf to his former teammate's cries and went along with INnoVation's plan. Zest scooped up Scarlett to round out the group, preserving INnoVation’s swap-privilege.

At this point, INnoVation could have used his swap to replace Zest with an even easier opponent. Instead, INnoVation made the shrewd move of setting up his quarterfinal match instead. GSL’s fixed seeding makes it so Group A players must face Group B players in the quarterfinals (A1 vs B2, A2 vs B1). Knowing this, INnoVation used his swap to send away Group B’s sole Protoss player Dear, ensuring he would not face a Protoss opponent in the quarterfinals.

It makes perfect sense. INnoVation is supremely confident in his TvT and TvZ, but fears TvP as a matchup where he might be upset by an inferior player. In that case, it’s much better to tolerate ONE Protoss in his RO16 group (where he has insurance in the form of the two weakest Zergs remaining), if he can guarantee he will not face Protoss in a quarterfinal elimination match. While all the other players are playing RTS, INnoVation is playing grand strategy.

If INnoVation finishes first, he’s looking at the second place finisher from Group B as his next opponent. A mirror matchup against one of the Terrans or a pairing against soO (who has recently been hapless in ZvT) would be vastly preferable given Dark is the other option. Even if that were the case, INnoVation is 11-4 in games against Zerg since the new year and has to fancy his chances.

soO (#4 seed) - Grade: D-

Group B: soO, aLive, Dark, TY

There’s a saying about the best laid plans of mice and men…

It all started off so well. soO was the fourth to pick, but he still managed to get his dream opponent in Dear. soO has been terrible against Dear over the course of his career, but he notched his first win against him the IEM Katowice qualifiers less than a month ago. soO’s form against Protoss in 2018 (5-1 in matches) made this the obvious selection. Things were looking even rosier when Dear inexplicably chose Dark (Dear is 2-11 against Dark since December), adding another favorable opponent to soO’s group. There was still a round of picks left, but soO must have been licking his lips at the prospect of playing his two favored matchups in the Ro16.

With only three players left, Dark selected TY to round out the group. But fear not! Dark’s 29-14 lifetime record against TY would have eased soO’s worries, allowing him to dream of a path out of the RO16 that didn’t involve facing TY at all. Then INnoVation came in and stomped all over soO’s garden.

Switching Dear and aLive tore up any scenarios soO might have drawn up in his head, forcing him to defeat at least one Terran in order to advance. In 2018, soO is a combined 20-11 against Protoss and Zerg. In the same period, he is 7-5 against Terran. That might not seem so bad, but those wins came against Sinner, Forte and MajOr. soO has been struggling immensely against Terran on stream, and has to be positively sick at the prospect of facing INnoVation in the quarterfinals should he somehow manage to escape an already challenging group in second place. soO’s goal can’t be to merely advance—he need to go 2-0 if he wants to avoid a death sentence in the quarterfinals.

GuMiho (#3 seed) - Grade: D

Group C: GuMiho, Classic, Dear, Maru

GuMiho started the whole process off in a rather strange way. He had the third pick, but for some reason used it on the hottest player in StarCraft II. Classic is 32-6 in matches against all races since BlizzCon and 10-1 versus Terran. Meanwhile, GuMiho doesn’t even have a 50% win-rate against Protoss since the 4.0 patch (36-38 in games, 14-14 in matches). What’s even worse is that many of those wins have come against players like Nice, JackO, Tesla and the dreaded omgabanana. There’s no way to rationalize it, really. GuMiho invited disaster from the start.

Classic decided to make things easier on GuMiho by picking a mutually beneficial opponent in aLive. GuMiho is 24-8 in the Terran mirror in the last two months (10-3 in matches) and has won ten of his last twelve meetings against the mYinsanity Terran. aLive proceeded to select Maru as his opponent, an addition which must have pleased GuMiho very much given his TvT form (not to mention the fact that Maru had lost two macros games to the lowly KeeN a few hours early). GuMiho appeared bound for the losers’ match, but TvT could still light his way to the quarterfinals.

At least, until INnoVation had his say.

aLive and Dear swapped places, shifting GuMiho’s forecast from a pair of blissful mirrors to a possible 0-2 at the hands of Protoss. GuMiho is guaranteed to face at least one Korean Protoss in the Ro16, and he has to beat at least one to reach the quarterfinals. If GuMiho reaches the quarterfinals at all, he will have to face yet another Protoss opponent from the all-Protoss Group D. No one is quite sure how the latest balance patch will affect the matches, but if something doesn’t change drastically, GuMiho is a dead man walking.

Stats (#2 seed) - Grade: F

Group D: Stats, Trap, herO, sOs

Get ready for five thrilling matches of a-moving archons and possibly a guest appearance by phoenix vs phoenix.

Maybe it’s not all that bad given the star power of the combatants, but Stats had to have expected things would turn out differently when he used his #2 overall pick on the relatively easy Trap. It seemed like Stats was going with the “weakest overall opponent” draft philosophy, because his personal record against Protoss is a rather poor 22-26 since his BlizzCon flop. However, he did score a victory over Classic in last Saturday’s round of 32 group, so it’s possible he feels he’s turned a corner in PvP.

Things got a bit trickier when Trap selected herO as the third player in the group. Stats holds a slight edge in that head-to-head matchup, but herO has won their last three meetings dating back to October 2017. Three Protosses in a four-player group is already pretty bad, but Stats looked positively dismayed as aLive snatched up Maru with his pick, sending sOs over to Group D and making it an all-Protoss affair. The fact that Stats will only have to prepare against Protoss is poor consolation given the fact that sOs has gotten the better of him historically (16-12 with the most prominent defeat coming in the semifinals of 2017 GSL Season 3). sOs’ PvP has been slightly underwhelming since the turn of the calendar (9-6 in games with a 2-1 loss to Stats), but there’s a reason he was the last man standing: no one wants to deal with his bulls***.

If Stats somehow braves the Group of Death Protoss, he could very well be staring down another PvP in the round of 8, as Classic has to be considered the favorite in Group C. Winning one PvP is hard enough, but he might have to slog through four of them if he wants to end up in the greener pastures of the semifinals.

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