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Sogetsu
514 Posts
On September 26 2017 04:22 pvsnp wrote: Is there some mysterious external factor that prevents any of the big three from peaking at Blizzcon? Of course there is, fate. | ||
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KR_4EVR
316 Posts
On September 26 2017 04:15 Fango wrote: Stats Dark and Inno are the obvious big three. Although I don't think it's by as big a margin as people say. TY, sOs, Classic, soO etc and a few others could beat them on a good day And neither of the big three will win blizzcon imo. Blizzcon usually goes to whoever peaks on the day, not who was conistant over the year. It's complicated. You people don't understand the structure of a matrix or even the basic algebra associated with partial orders. The closest thing to a realistic ranking that is even close to factual over 2017 (to present) is the following 3by3 matrix (Yes Aligulac may say differently): . vsZ . . . . . vs P . . . . . . . vs T _______________________________________________________________ . soO . . . . Rogue . . . . . . Dark .......|..... best Zerg . . Stats . . . . sOs . . . . . . herO ........|.... best Protoss . . TY . . . . . . INnoVation . Gumiho ....|........ best Terran . . Of course I'm tempted to write (herO+Classic)/2 in the PvT spot and (2Gumiho - Byun + INnoVation)/2 in the TvT spot, but binary choices have to be made. Overall best: INnoVation, Stats, Dark | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
There's no fate but what we make for ourselves. Therefore, Inno wins by pop culture reference. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On September 26 2017 04:22 pvsnp wrote: Is there some mysterious external factor that prevents any of the big three from peaking at Blizzcon? They've been in almost peak form for over a year now. Other players will prepare themselves to peak around blizzcon time. Players always try to step it up for blizzcon, if you're at your best for the whole year how you gonna step it up? I know this sounds like nonsense, but I genuinely feel like the guys that dominate consistancy over the year are less likely to take it. Like Life said at blizzcon 2015, at that point it doesn't matter how well you did over the course of the year | ||
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RKC
2848 Posts
On September 26 2017 09:41 pvsnp wrote: There's no fate but what we make for ourselves. Therefore, Inno wins by pop culture reference. Variance is higher for weekender tournaments. Matches are compressed, tiredness sets in, less time to prepare against opponents, and everything falls on 2-3 days' span of form. Let's use a chess analogy. Starleague format would be classical chess, weekender format would be rapid/blitz. The only difference in SC2 is that there is no real consensus on what constitutes the 'better format'. Top Korean tourneys favour the Starleague format (which is carried forward from BW tradition, hence arguably fitting the 'classical' mould), top foreign tourneys favour weekender format (since the early days of SC2). But more to the point, it shouldn't be surprising why some Starleague champions may not fare as well in Blizzcon. The road and conditions to victory are somewhat different. And yes, because of variance. (Personally, I'm not saying Starleague is ideal. Few months may be too long. What would be great is a format in between - Blizzcon to be stretched over 2 weeks, with 2-3 days of rest in between rounds. Packing multiple rounds in a single day is not the best test of a player's skill, I feel. Even in BW, Starleague group matches tend to be stretched over a few days. So even SC2 Starleagues seem to be a lite version of classical BW Starleague.) | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On September 26 2017 09:32 KR_4EVR wrote: It's complicated. You people don't understand the structure of a matrix or even the basic algebra associated with partial orders. The closest thing to a realistic ranking that is even close to factual over 2017 (to present) is the following 3by3 matrix (Yes Aligulac may say differently): . vsZ . . . . . vs P . . . . . . . vs T _______________________________________________________________ . soO . . . . Rogue . . . . . . Dark .......|..... best Zerg . . Stats . . . . sOs . . . . . . herO ........|.... best Protoss . . TY . . . . . . INnoVation . Gumiho ....|........ best Terran . . Of course I'm tempted to write (herO+Classic)/2 in the PvT spot and (2Gumiho - Byun + INnoVation)/2 in the TvT spot, but binary choices have to be made. Overall best: INnoVation, Stats, Dark Inno is honestly best at all three of the matchups for terran, TY has had issues with zergs whereas Inno never does. And his recent TvT run is insane. I would also say that in PvT, Zest>Stats>herO I agree zerg is split over soO Rogue and Dark, however Dark is the best overall. (this is right now btw, not over the course of the year) | ||
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PuddleZerg
United States82 Posts
SoO SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On September 26 2017 09:53 Fango wrote: They've been in almost peak form for over a year now. Other players will prepare themselves to peak around blizzcon time. Players always try to step it up for blizzcon, if you're at your best for the whole year how you gonna step it up? I know this sounds like nonsense, but I genuinely feel like the guys that dominate consistancy over the year are less likely to take it. Like Life said at blizzcon 2015, at that point it doesn't matter how well you did over the course of the year I dunno Kev, I don't buy the idea that any pros have hit the skill ceilings of their race, or are even anywhere near. There's always room to improve, even if you are already the best in the world. On September 26 2017 10:01 RKC wrote: Variance is higher for weekender tournaments. Matches are compressed, tiredness sets in, less time to prepare against opponents, and everything falls on 2-3 days' span of form. Let's use a chess analogy. Starleague format would be classical chess, weekender format would be rapid/blitz. The only difference in SC2 is that there is no real consensus on what constitutes the 'better format'. Top Korean tourneys favour the Starleague format (which is carried forward from BW tradition, hence arguably fitting the 'classical' mould), top foreign tourneys favour weekender format (since the early days of SC2). But more to the point, it shouldn't be surprising why some Starleague champions may not fare as well in Blizzcon. The road and conditions to victory are somewhat different. And yes, because of variance. (Personally, I'm not saying Starleague is ideal. Few months may be too long. What would be great is a format in between - Blizzcon to be stretched over 2 weeks, with 2-3 days of rest in between rounds. Packing multiple rounds in a single day is not the best test of a player's skill, I feel. Even in BW, Starleague group matches tend to be stretched over a few days. So even SC2 Starleagues seem to be a lite version of classical BW Starleague.) Oh, I understand the whole higher variance thing. But simply because Stats/Inno/Dark might not be overwhelming favorites does not mean they have no chance to win at all, as some other posters are implying. Blizzcon being a weekender increases the likelihood of chance playing a hand, and favorites always suffer disproportionately when chance takes a hand. But to imply that Stats/Inno/Dark are somehow not favorites simply because of increased variance is.....unjustified. | ||
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pvsnp
7676 Posts
On September 26 2017 10:02 Fango wrote: Inno is honestly best at all three of the matchups for terran, TY has had issues with zergs whereas Inno never does. And his recent TvT run is insane. I would also say that in PvT, Zest>Stats>herO I agree zerg is split over soO Rogue and Dark, however Dark is the best overall. (this is right now btw, not over the course of the year) Inno, Stats, and Dark are the clear frontrunners for their races, but they all have their own weak points. Inno's TvT and TvZ are nearly invincible, but his TvP looks pretty mortal by comparison. Stats can take on the best Terrans and Zergs head-on, but his PvP is predictable and exploitable. Dark's ZvT is peerless and his ZvP lategame just as strong, but he also struggles in the mirror matchup. Out of the other top-tiers, TY is probably as good as Inno in TvP, Zest better than Stats in PvT, and soO/Rogue better than Dark in ZvZ. My estimate for the top for each race would go something like: Terran: Inno > TY > Gumiho > Maru > ByuN/aLive Protoss: Stats > Classic > sOs > Dear/Zest > herO Zerg: Dark > Rogue > soO > Solar Overall: Inno > Stats > Dark | ||
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Cricketer12
United States13994 Posts
On September 26 2017 10:02 Fango wrote: Inno is honestly best at all three of the matchups for terran, TY has had issues with zergs whereas Inno never does. And his recent TvT run is insane. I would also say that in PvT, Zest>Stats>herO I agree zerg is split over soO Rogue and Dark, however Dark is the best overall. (this is right now btw, not over the course of the year) Zest in 2017 LOL | ||
Olli
Austria24422 Posts
He's been bad in tournaments, but his PvT is actually excellent right now. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On September 26 2017 10:35 pvsnp wrote: I dunno Kev, I don't buy the idea that any pros have hit the skill ceilings of their race, or are even anywhere near. There's always room to improve, even if you are already the best in the world. None of them have reached a true skill ceiling. But by any definition they've been peaking for a while in terms of their personal form. I don't think they can get much better than they are at the minute I know it seems ridiculous to disregard their chances purely because they're good. I just think for an event like blizzcon, where players will show their true colours more than anywhere else, the more low key guys have a better chance (assuming they get in). Life and sOs defined this I'd give blizzon to TY, sOs, or Dark, over Stats and Inno any day | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
As of right now, Zest is looking like the best PvT. Even TY and Inno have said this iirc | ||
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AxiomBlurr
786 Posts
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KR_4EVR
316 Posts
On September 26 2017 10:02 Fango wrote: Inno is honestly best at all three of the matchups for terran, TY has had issues with zergs whereas Inno never does. And his recent TvT run is insane. I would also say that in PvT, Zest>Stats>herO I agree zerg is split over soO Rogue and Dark, however Dark is the best overall. (this is right now btw, not over the course of the year) You may be right. But definitely hard to tell over a year; the elements were my best guess. My main point was, ppl were saying, "his dude best that dude not" - better to be specific with all 9 options. (Yes, 6 matchups, but from any 1-person perspective, 9). | ||
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