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This is not a balance thread. I'm sure others will see it otherwise, but let me preface this by saying we have Protoss, Zerg and Terran all in the top RO8.
I am more concerned about the lower levels. I am high master low GM Terran. I made GM for all of 3 days this season; I'm about 5200-5300 MMR and I only Mech (vs all 3 races since 2010). I don't like ravens except for early defense. I don't see too much that changed in the last several patches that drastically changed mech or Terran; in fact, the race seems to have stayed the same, if anything from my perspective. So what suddenly changed? Yes, tanks received a damaged increase...but do you see pro players meching TvP? Raven auto turret received a buff, but do you see that changing the game (except TvT). Also, many do not know that the auto turret is EXACTLY the same with the upgrade. Blizzard simply removed the upgrade. So nothing has really changed to influence non-mirror TvT matchups for over a year.
I'm not kidding you, I'd rather not take a screenshot, but I played 12 Terrans in a row tonight. I've played 328 games this season and 140 of them are TvT. This is a 43% ratio of TvT.
Now think to yourself. I'm a mech player, so each game becomes reasonably long (again, I don't Raven). I'm pulling my hair out with frustration. Does anyone else have this ratio with similar MMR or even leagues? I remember ZvZ craft when there was a definitive reason everyone was playing Zerg: This was due to the Queen buff. But please provide a substantial change why there are so many Terrans.
I really hope to get some feedback from people who decided to switch to Terran because these statistics are not happenstance.
PS. I'm NA Server
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NA GM:
40% Zerg
21% Protoss
39% Teran
NA Master:
36% Zerg
23% Protoss
36% Terran
So what happened to you is the law of large number. It is likely that unlikely things will happens when the numbers gets large enough.
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On February 11 2017 18:52 MockHamill wrote:
NA GM:
40% Zerg
21% Protoss
39% Teran
NA Master:
36% Zerg
23% Protoss
36% Terran
So what happened to you is the law of large number. It is likely that unlikely things will happens when the numbers gets large enough.
Yes, but the problem with these kinds of distributions is they have no context. What identifies as a Terran as a Terran or Zerg as a Zerg etc? 10 or 20 games? There is a difference between me playing 330 games this season to identify as Terran versus a Protoss who played 10 games. This distribution could be seen as a significantly larger variance if you look at the ratio of games played.
I could look at numbers all day, but there is a difference between analyzing numbers and engaging a community. I also believe that the sites that have race distributions are flawed: They need to take total games played of each account into consideration for overall influence on a community.
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France12790 Posts
Maybe most terrans in GM/master are top master or low GM so you encounter a lot of terrans.
Overall I think there are few protoss on ladder and a lot of zergs and terrans.
Mech / ravens being easy doesn't help you in that regard, but except at the very start of LotV, there haven't been a lot of protoss on the ladder.
"So what happened to you is the law of large number. It is likely that unlikely things will happens when the numbers gets large enough.
"
Pretty sure this isn't the law of large numbers :o.
I think that the law of large numbers in that particular case isn't applicable because not every "eligible" (in the sense of MMR being close to the OP's) player is online when you queue for a game, so we won't have the "i.i.d" hypothesis valid.
Plus even if all GM players were to be online at the same time, it's likely that they would be playing thus the available player pool would not be the same as the GM distribution anyways...
So my advice would be to stream snipe streamers of the race you want to play against (not stream cheat, just stream snipe) if your MMR allows you to.
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United Kingdom20285 Posts
But please provide a substantial change why there are so many Terrans.
There's been a huge lack of protoss players around masters since LOTV, there are roughly as many terrans as zerg (outside of korea which is more T focused IIRC)
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On February 11 2017 18:52 MockHamill wrote:
NA GM:
40% Zerg
21% Protoss
39% Teran
NA Master:
36% Zerg
23% Protoss
36% Terran
So what happened to you is the law of large number. It is likely that unlikely things will happens when the numbers gets large enough.
this is my friendly shitpost of the month: I suggest you read what the law of large numbers actually states. It has nothing to do with weird things happening, given enough time and large enough numbers.
The law of large numbers is the idea that as the sample size n gets large, the average will converge to the expected value.
not only is what you said wrong, even looking at the correct definition, the LLN has nothing to say on the matter of race distribution in a 3 player RTS unless you were flipping coins and rolling dice to determine what race to play.
to OP:
What's happening here is two things. The actual distribution of games played (data from blizzard) by race at your skill level, and the not-so-random(do the actual distributions vary based on time of day? day of the week? we don't know) sample your games represent from that bracket. Without running the math and just eyeballing the numbers up above, factoring that terran appears to increase in popularity as you go up in rank, n~=300, I think it's fair to say that yes, you are probably just experiencing what is known as variance.
now, if you showed me data from hundreds of accounts with TvT stats(THIS is where the LLN shines; as you sample more and more accounts and check their % vs T, the average of all of these accounts should approach 36-39%. if it doesn't, something funny is going on), i'd be interested in running the numbers, but for every one of 'you' who played 10% more TvTs than you should have, there's a doppleganger 'you' who played 10% fewer TvTs than normal. someone next week is going to post "look, i played 417 games, and only 133 of them were TvT this is only 33% of the time! but nearly 40% of the players are terrans? what is going on here blizzard? am I just getting unlucky? I LOVE tvt!" (if its not a balance whine, why mention that you play mech exclusively for 6+ years regardless of patches, matchups, spawn locations?)
If you were a protoss player playing even 33% of your games as mirrors, there would be something highly irregular going on with either the matchmaking, or the racial distribution. but as a terran player this is to be expected and hardly evidence to reject.
your guess is as good as mine as to which lurking variables here are responsible for the discrepancy, but nothing weird is happening here. this is the classic "why me, god?" whine.
TLDR;
actual (from blizzard)
T -- 36-39%
observed (n = 328)
T -- 43%
...these statistics are not happenstance.
yes. yes they are.
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On February 11 2017 18:41 SirPinky wrote:
This is not a balance thread. I'm sure others will see it otherwise, but let me preface this by saying we have Protoss, Zerg and Terran all in the top RO8.
I am more concerned about the lower levels. I am high master low GM Terran. I made GM for all of 3 days this season; I'm about 5200-5300 MMR and I only Mech (vs all 3 races since 2010). I don't like ravens except for early defense. I don't see too much that changed in the last several patches that drastically changed mech or Terran; in fact, the race seems to have stayed the same, if anything from my perspective. So what suddenly changed? Yes, tanks received a damaged increase...but do you see pro players meching TvP? Raven auto turret received a buff, but do you see that changing the game (except TvT). Also, many do not know that the auto turret is EXACTLY the same with the upgrade. Blizzard simply removed the upgrade. So nothing has really changed to influence non-mirror TvT matchups for over a year.
I'm not kidding you, I'd rather not take a screenshot, but I played 12 Terrans in a row tonight. I've played 328 games this season and 140 of them are TvT. This is a 43% ratio of TvT.
Now think to yourself. I'm a mech player, so each game becomes reasonably long (again, I don't Raven). I'm pulling my hair out with frustration. Does anyone else have this ratio with similar MMR or even leagues? I remember ZvZ craft when there was a definitive reason everyone was playing Zerg: This was due to the Queen buff. But please provide a substantial change why there are so many Terrans.
I really hope to get some feedback from people who decided to switch to Terran because these statistics are not happenstance.
PS. I'm NA Server
Terran is in a good spot right now, which is nice to see
Btw how are you a GM Terran playing Mech, Avilo and his crew keep saying this is impossible
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Terran is in a good spot right now, which is nice to see
Btw how are you a GM Terran playing Mech, Avilo and his crew keep saying this is impossible
Anything can work at casual level. Innovation could probably worker rush and win in GM. Does not mean it is a viable strat.
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Its not just about the race distribution, it can be also about which players play frequently and which don't.
Even if we had an equal of 33.3% per race but say Terrnas were playing 3 times more games then a zerg or a porttoss, you have 60% meeting a terran on the ladder just because they play more games even tough the distribution is the same (and it seems like its only 33.3%)..
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France12790 Posts
On February 12 2017 01:26 bulya wrote:
Its not just about the race distribution, it can be also about which players play frequently and which don't.
Even if we had an equal of 33.3% per race but say Terrnas were playing 3 times more games then a zerg or a porttoss, you have 60% meeting a terran on the ladder just because they play more games even tough the distribution is the same (and it seems like its only 33.3%)..
There is also the problem that other players don't wait for you to queue up a game before playing, so there aren't that many players searching a game at the same time as you with a similar MMR.
This is why the probabilities of you meeting up a particular race change a bit depending on when you play, and why race distribution will just give you a vague idea of what you'll meet on the ladder.
As for the reasons why there aren't as many protoss as zerg/terrans, it's probably because of worse game design for the protoss race? Like players don't find it as fun or idk?
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On February 11 2017 22:31 ItsFunToLose wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2017 18:52 MockHamill wrote:
NA GM:
40% Zerg
21% Protoss
39% Teran
NA Master:
36% Zerg
23% Protoss
36% Terran
So what happened to you is the law of large number. It is likely that unlikely things will happens when the numbers gets large enough.
this is my friendly shitpost of the month: I suggest you read what the law of large numbers actually states. It has nothing to do with weird things happening, given enough time and large enough numbers. The law of large numbers is the idea that as the sample size n gets large, the average will converge to the expected value.not only is what you said wrong, even looking at the correct definition, the LLN has nothing to say on the matter of race distribution in a 3 player RTS unless you were flipping coins and rolling dice to determine what race to play. to OP: What's happening here is two things. The actual distribution of games played (data from blizzard) by race at your skill level, and the not-so-random(do the actual distributions vary based on time of day? day of the week? we don't know) sample your games represent from that bracket. Without running the math and just eyeballing the numbers up above, factoring that terran appears to increase in popularity as you go up in rank, n~=300, I think it's fair to say that yes, you are probably just experiencing what is known as variance. now, if you showed me data from hundreds of accounts with TvT stats(THIS is where the LLN shines; as you sample more and more accounts and check their % vs T, the average of all of these accounts should approach 36-39%. if it doesn't, something funny is going on), i'd be interested in running the numbers, but for every one of 'you' who played 10% more TvTs than you should have, there's a doppleganger 'you' who played 10% fewer TvTs than normal. someone next week is going to post "look, i played 417 games, and only 133 of them were TvT this is only 33% of the time! but nearly 40% of the players are terrans? what is going on here blizzard? am I just getting unlucky? I LOVE tvt!" (if its not a balance whine, why mention that you play mech exclusively for 6+ years regardless of patches, matchups, spawn locations?) If you were a protoss player playing even 33% of your games as mirrors, there would be something highly irregular going on with either the matchmaking, or the racial distribution. but as a terran player this is to be expected and hardly evidence to reject. your guess is as good as mine as to which lurking variables here are responsible for the discrepancy, but nothing weird is happening here. this is the classic "why me, god?" whine.
TLDR;
actual (from blizzard)
T -- 36-39%
observed (n = 328)
T -- 43%
yes. yes they are.
I want to give you my heart.
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Terran Plat T2 here.
55 games played this season, 28 were against terran so 50%.
I have the same feeling to always play terran while I HATE this MU.
Referring on SC2 Unmasked stats:
EU Plat races distribution:
Z 37%
T 30%
P 24%
So, there is something wrong.
As I can read above, Terran look good atm with Inno TY Maru kick some asses so maybe more terran players who start the season still to play while Z and P players play 5 games and stop it.
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You know how I know your lying?
Avilo said that you can't be good with mech cuz it's so bad and it can't be played at a high level at all without mass raven so your lying bro your not a mech GM terran stop lying to me
*maximum Kappa*
User was warned for this post
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France12790 Posts
On February 12 2017 02:26 Sound1 wrote:
Terran Plat T2 here.
55 games played this season, 28 were against terran so 50%.
I have the same feeling to always play terran while I HATE this MU.
Referring on SC2 Unmasked stats:
EU Plat races distribution:
Z 37%
T 30%
P 24%
So, there is something wrong.
As I can read above, Terran look good atm with Inno TY Maru kick some asses so maybe more terran players who start the season still to play while Z and P players play 5 games and stop it.
There is nothing wrong, because of the already stated above reasons (plus small sample size) and the fact that the Plat 2 distribution is probably not the same as the play distribution.
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I think protoss is just played a lot less. They have been the bastard race of SC2 for a long time. Seen as cheesy and gimmicky. I am not entirely sure it is a balance issue. People are heavily discouraged from playing protoss on ladder. (ie being called names etc)
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Before this somehow got coopted into a discussion on mech in high masters, or to shut down a not very cleverly disguised brag post, I did some poking around on rankedftw and sc2replaystats.com.
The only player to fit the description of 328 games played minimum, mmr around 5200-5300, complete with a very high number of tvts recently, who did in fact hit GM for three days this season is [PsiX]Psyche http://www.rankedftw.com/team/471682/#td=region&ty=m&ra=best&tyz=1&tx=a&tl=1. His battle.net profile confirms that the Psyche on rankedftw and the one here on sc2replaystats http://sc2replaystats.com/player/12433 is in fact the same person.
Every single replay I checked stats on had a terran going bio. I could not find a single mech game across at least 10 recent games across each matchup that happened to get uploaded, though admittedly I did not open every single replay he had available. Example: http://sc2replaystats.com/replay/4357055 bio tvz.
Why am I being so incredibly petty? In Wings of Liberty I was in clan Revoki for a few months. Pinky here was a fan or a "sponsor" or something in the team. At that point in time he paid extensively for account boosting so that he could brag about being x rank/league. I did not participate in said boosting.
I did not see any evidence of multiple players playing this particular account in the replays from the apm or unit composition across the replays I found on sc2replaystats, so it's possible he did get up to high masters, or maybe there's just one high masters guy playing this account, I dunno. But either way, he is not a GM mech terran.
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Is it really hard to guess why you don't play as many Zergs and Protoss? Because they quit from the obvious one-sided strength that T has, while the other races have been getting nerfed to the ground. ALL, and I mean ALL my Protoss friends players have quit SC2 (majority after Libs came out)
But keep pushing for that mech viability until no single Zerg or Protoss player is left
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Yeah, I think a lot of Protoss players have switched race. I've always played Toss since I started playing in 2012 (at a low level - plat/diamond) but it feels harder to me in LoTV, especially against Terran. The separate MMR for each race possibly encouraged it too. Now I play Terran, which is more fun anyway.
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As others said, the problem is less protoss players. From the most played race in WoL and HotS, it is the least played race now. That's an indication that Blizzard fucked something up. Well, one race has to be the least played race, but if given percentages in this thread are correct, protoss shouldn't be below 28% at most. It has to be between 28-33% to be acceptable. Ideally, you should get 33% protoss, 33% zerg and 33% terran. If you say that -/+ 5 is acceptable, then no race should be less than 28% and no race should be above 38%.
NA GM:
40% Zerg
21% Protoss
39% Teran
If true, that just supports what I'm talking about.
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On February 11 2017 23:02 MockHamill wrote:Show nested quote +
Terran is in a good spot right now, which is nice to see
Btw how are you a GM Terran playing Mech, Avilo and his crew keep saying this is impossible
Anything can work at casual level. Innovation could probably worker rush and win in GM. Does not mean it is a viable strat.
Scarlett won a game at Homestory Cup against Stats after worker rushing.
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EPT
