|
On February 11 2017 18:41 SirPinky wrote:
This is not a balance thread. I'm sure others will see it otherwise, but let me preface this by saying we have Protoss, Zerg and Terran all in the top RO8.
I am more concerned about the lower levels. I am high master low GM Terran. I made GM for all of 3 days this season; I'm about 5200-5300 MMR and I only Mech (vs all 3 races since 2010). I don't like ravens except for early defense. I don't see too much that changed in the last several patches that drastically changed mech or Terran; in fact, the race seems to have stayed the same, if anything from my perspective. So what suddenly changed? Yes, tanks received a damaged increase...but do you see pro players meching TvP? Raven auto turret received a buff, but do you see that changing the game (except TvT). Also, many do not know that the auto turret is EXACTLY the same with the upgrade. Blizzard simply removed the upgrade. So nothing has really changed to influence non-mirror TvT matchups for over a year.
I'm not kidding you, I'd rather not take a screenshot, but I played 12 Terrans in a row tonight. I've played 328 games this season and 140 of them are TvT. This is a 43% ratio of TvT.
Now think to yourself. I'm a mech player, so each game becomes reasonably long (again, I don't Raven). I'm pulling my hair out with frustration. Does anyone else have this ratio with similar MMR or even leagues? I remember ZvZ craft when there was a definitive reason everyone was playing Zerg: This was due to the Queen buff. But please provide a substantial change why there are so many Terrans.
I really hope to get some feedback from people who decided to switch to Terran because these statistics are not happenstance.
PS. I'm NA Server
You know Terran also benefits from the tank damage increase when going bio. It effectively made blink openers a lot harder to pull off and requires the protoss to defend more than before the buff. And yeah im a terran player myself who plays bio and mech half and half on EU server at mid master. But yeah i enjoy all match ups so I dont really care for the race distribution. The fact is terran is in a good spot at the moment and thats probably the reason why more people are playing them.
|
France12792 Posts
Why would the OP brag about being GM on NA with mech? :o
|
Even if the chance for 10 terrans in a row is only 1%, it can still happen (otherwise the chance would be zero). There is a whole chapter about this in probability and statistics with very interesting results (worth reading). Simple said, you get the perfect outcome (distribution of races) only if you play an infinite amount of games.
|
On February 12 2017 06:13 Poopi wrote:
Why would the OP brag about being GM on NA with mech? :o
because he wants guys like me to feel bad and ashamed. 
|
On February 12 2017 06:27 todespolka wrote:
Even if the chance for 10 terrans in a row is only 1%, it can still happen (otherwise the chance would be zero). There is a whole chapter about this in probability and statistics with very interesting results (worth reading). Simple said, you get the perfect outcome (distribution of races) only if you play an infinite amount of games.
Perfect outcome? Is there such a thing? While it's unlikely to happen, you can play only terran opponents in a row. Of course, chance could be like 0,000000000......1% but you get the point.
|
To say Terran is in a good spot is an understatement. But this motivates Terran players to play more as they have a very enjoyable time*. As a result you will have more games vs Terran than it would result from race distribution at any given level.
Its not rocket science.
*Excluding Avilo of course.
|
the game will always be at least somewhat imbalanced at lower than pro level APM levels. i accept this as part of playing the game. i'm unwilling to put in the work required to get my APM consistently over 200. the price i pay for my laziness is that i'm playing an imbalanced game. i don't mind.
|
|
|
France12792 Posts
On February 12 2017 07:26 Kafka777 wrote:
To say Terran is in a good spot is an understatement. But this motivates Terran players to play more as they have a very enjoyable time*. As a result you will have more games vs Terran than it would result from race distribution at any given level.
Its not rocket science.
*Excluding Avilo of course.
Zerg is in a better spot tho .
The OP doesn't seem very serious tho
|
protoss became very boring in lotv with the chrono changes, my primary reason for quitting
|
On February 12 2017 06:13 Poopi wrote:
Why would the OP brag about being GM on NA with mech? :o
This isn't a "brag" post. There are many people better than me at higher levels on NA. The main reason I indicated my MMR and playstyle is for two reasons: 1) Create a point of origin of the types of players I'm playing; meaning someone in Gold or even top 50 GM may not have the same kind of matchups I've been experiencing. 2) Playing only mech is fun but can become very frustrating when all you are doing is playing TvT and having long, drawn out games.
For those of you who think this is a "brag" post use your brains and realize the context of why I need to include this information. If I said, "Dang, I play a lot of TvT" and ended the OP there, that wouldn't be very helpful now would it. But I'm seeing several "troll" posts here attempting to redirect the conversation, which is not constructive.
|
On February 12 2017 01:26 bulya wrote:
Its not just about the race distribution, it can be also about which players play frequently and which don't.
Even if we had an equal of 33.3% per race but say Terrnas were playing 3 times more games then a zerg or a porttoss, you have 60% meeting a terran on the ladder just because they play more games even tough the distribution is the same (and it seems like its only 33.3%)..
This is a good point. This is what I was eluding to in my earlier post when a user simply mentioned race distribution totals. How much someone plays can really influence the number of mirror matchups. So it could be a larger variance if, say, the total number of accounts identified as Protoss play half as many games as the accounts identified as Terran.
|
A fitting punishment for a mecher player; playing against their own race and being forced into long games.
|
On February 12 2017 12:11 xTJx wrote:
A fitting punishment for a mecher player; playing against their own race and being forced into long games.
Touche
|
I'm a NA diamond 1 protoss. I only play about 1 or 2 ladder games per week since I get so much bm all the time
|
On February 11 2017 22:56 Topdoller wrote:Show nested quote +On February 11 2017 18:41 SirPinky wrote:
This is not a balance thread. I'm sure others will see it otherwise, but let me preface this by saying we have Protoss, Zerg and Terran all in the top RO8.
I am more concerned about the lower levels. I am high master low GM Terran. I made GM for all of 3 days this season; I'm about 5200-5300 MMR and I only Mech (vs all 3 races since 2010). I don't like ravens except for early defense. I don't see too much that changed in the last several patches that drastically changed mech or Terran; in fact, the race seems to have stayed the same, if anything from my perspective. So what suddenly changed? Yes, tanks received a damaged increase...but do you see pro players meching TvP? Raven auto turret received a buff, but do you see that changing the game (except TvT). Also, many do not know that the auto turret is EXACTLY the same with the upgrade. Blizzard simply removed the upgrade. So nothing has really changed to influence non-mirror TvT matchups for over a year.
I'm not kidding you, I'd rather not take a screenshot, but I played 12 Terrans in a row tonight. I've played 328 games this season and 140 of them are TvT. This is a 43% ratio of TvT.
Now think to yourself. I'm a mech player, so each game becomes reasonably long (again, I don't Raven). I'm pulling my hair out with frustration. Does anyone else have this ratio with similar MMR or even leagues? I remember ZvZ craft when there was a definitive reason everyone was playing Zerg: This was due to the Queen buff. But please provide a substantial change why there are so many Terrans.
I really hope to get some feedback from people who decided to switch to Terran because these statistics are not happenstance.
PS. I'm NA Server Terran is in a good spot right now, which is nice to see Btw how are you a GM Terran playing Mech, Avilo and his crew keep saying this is impossible
Mech is in the worst spot it's been in for a long time. Mech is in fact impossible atm due to swarmhosts and carriers.
If you play "mech" right now on this patch you're not playing "mech." You're playing "pray you can make 20 ravens because you die to swarmhost if you don't."
More on-topic:
Blizzard buffed tanks but made swarmhosts unbearable on the same patch, and carriers so there's not much diversity in T play right now, especially at pro level. It's mostly bio lib every game with the odd mech game here and there that people then justify saying "see mech is fine!" when it only worked because they did it as a surprise 1/50 game vs their opponent who never thought they'd use such a terrible strat.
As for balance, it's ridiculous people and casters keep trying to spread that T is OP or overrepresented. Terran play has basically stayed the same for the last 4 yrs, it's just a few high level pro korean T that would own everyone regardless of their race that are dominating, and they happen to be Terran (innovation, maru).
Can't really name any S tier players from Z/P other than Dark that pops to my head the rest of their respective races don't stand out or dominate. I know some people hate to read this or don't accept it but - the Terrans at the top are just simply better players than a lot of the Z/P pros.
|
On February 13 2017 16:32 avilo wrote:
Can't really name any S tier players from Z/P other than Dark that pops to my head the rest of their respective races don't stand out or dominate. I know some people hate to read this or don't accept it but - the Terrans at the top are just simply better players than a lot of the Z/P pros.
Yeah, and it's just a coincidence if they all become together best players of the world after the patch 3.8 released...
|
On February 11 2017 18:52 MockHamill wrote:
NA GM:
40% Zerg
21% Protoss
39% Teran
NA Master:
36% Zerg
23% Protoss
36% Terran
So what happened to you is the law of large number. It is likely that unlikely things will happens when the numbers gets large enough.
Running the math on this, using binomial distributions from this online calculator.
P-value for 140/328 terrans at 1/3 probability is 0.02% (one-sided binomial). Would be a freak event, but adding in some multiple hypothesis testing for different matchups, and posting bias (only players with extreme number post a thread), maybe not completely unthinkable.
P-value for 140/328 terrans at 39% probability is 9.5% (one-sided binomial). So roughly one in ten players at this level will face 140 or more terrans over 328 games. Taking the corrections above into account, there is absolutely nothing out of the ordinary. OP got slightly unlucky and got 12 more TvT than the expected 128, but really nothing too bad. Actually, the p-value for 150/328 is 0.7%, so it is likely that one (or more) player in GM has had 150 games of the last 328 against terran. And around 20 GM players will have also had 140 or more terrans. So OP is in good company.
Summary:
OP got a little bit unlucky with matchups, but this happens to about 10% of players at that level.
|
On February 13 2017 17:02 Tyrhanius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2017 16:32 avilo wrote:
Can't really name any S tier players from Z/P other than Dark that pops to my head the rest of their respective races don't stand out or dominate. I know some people hate to read this or don't accept it but - the Terrans at the top are just simply better players than a lot of the Z/P pros. Yeah, and it's just a coincidence if they all become together best players of the world after the patch 3.8 released...
What? You live in some strange world where Innovation, Gumiho, Maru weren't already dominated everyone? They have been S Class Terrans for a long time.
|
On February 13 2017 16:18 warlocke wrote:
I'm a NA diamond 1 protoss. I only play about 1 or 2 ladder games per week since I get so much bm all the time
Lol your right. When you win with Protoss, you get shit talked. When you lose you down right suck. Too much shit talk playing protoss. Thats why i quit solo too.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
