Quarterfinal Previews

It’s time to finally start BlizzCon proper. After last weekend’s group stage, we’ve moved on the quarterfinals. Eight players remain, and one of them will eventually be crowned champion. Before the grand finals, however, there’s still some ways to go. The players are starting to feel a weight on their shoulders. From now on, every decision has more heft to it, because a few wrong moves means they’re out for good. They’ve all spent the last few days preparing for the last challenge of the year. Over the span of two brutal days, the weak will be culled, bit by bit, until only the strongest remains standing.

ShoWTimE vs Elazer

In what is perhaps one of the most unexpected pairings in the history of BlizzCon, two European players look to forge themselves a path into the top 4 of this years’ WCS Global Finals. Where many had doubted that Tobias ‘ShoWTimE’ Sieber would come this far, almost no one would’ve bet on Mikolaj ‘Elazer’ Ogonowski to make it to the main event. Now, one of them is going to get a shot at not only the top 4, but at advancing into the Grand Final, on to StarCraft 2’s biggest stage yet.

This year we’ve come to expect much of Polish Zerg players with Nerchio standing in the spotlight since the release of Legacy of the Void, winning fame and recognition not only through his play, but also outside of the game. Elazer on the other hand flew under the radar for much longer and was always lurking in Nerchio’s shadow, not quite able to surpass his peer—until it really mattered; until his rise could be seen by the entire world. Beating Nerchio, defeating ShoWTimE: Elazer has accomplished these feats before. He’s had great performances this year, otherwise he wouldn’t have been in the position to claim a spot in this competition in the first place. It’s just that only a few people ever took note of it. The spotlight was on other players, other storylines. The bane of consistent, but in the end title-less, competitors in any sport is the danger of oblivion and irrelevance.

Elazer has faced this danger for a long time now, but he also repeatedly refused to let this be his fate. He may not have won any championships yet, but again and again he has shown the heart of a fighter. Even if he gets eliminated from a tournament quite early on, or does not make a deep run, he still manages to leave his mark one way or another. Oftentimes this mark consists of an upset against a heavy favourite, sometimes it’s a surprising tactic or strategy he utilizes. In any case, for a short time people have Elazer in their sights, in their minds. Before the inevitable happens, and he’s handily beaten by another player, who’s conceived as superior, making his own eliminations not very noteworthy.

In this sense, the Round of 16 in Burbank did fit the pattern at the start: A very surprising victory over the favoured Solar was followed up by a crushing defeat at the hands of TY. To most viewers his approach to the series against the Terran player looked desperate, as if Elazer knew that he had no chance to fight TY on even ground—or any other opponent. The deciding match against Nerchio should have been the point where Elazer gets eliminated from the competition in dominating fashion, leading to another one of his appearances becoming no more than a footnote in StarCraft 2 history. This time however, Elazer kept surprising. He did not crumble, did not give in to what we thought was his destiny: Providing a path for Nerchio into the next round. No, Elazer has shown that his fate is very much in his own hands still. He’s broken the pattern. And no one knows where he might go now, that he’s free from his shackles, that he has broken out of Nerchio’s shade.

If not ShoWTimE’s sheer appearance in the Round of 8 is astonishing to many viewers, the manner in which he got here certainly is. No other player managed to reach the next round undefeated, Korean or Foreigner. None of the other competitors looked as solid, as sovereign in their play (and on stage), even when facing the reigning GSL champion. ShoWTimE’s macro-oriented playstyle is not easy to execute against the mechanically superior Koreans, especially against a tactical genius like ByuN, yet there was no doubt on his side, that he should use his bread and butter style against these big names from overseas. He even showcased an ability the Koreans for a long time mastered, and which Foreigners for the most lacked: Identifying a flaw, a certain pattern in the opponents’ play, which he exploited to gain a decisive advantage. ByuN’s early timings had been negated, his multi-front assaults rendered pointless by ShoWTimE’s defence and his difficult to control high-tech army. Every strength the Korean had over ShoWTimE was taken away from him by a well prepared, very patient and, in the critical moments, decisive Foreigner.

The German Protoss will need this skillset against Elazer probably even more than against ByuN, as mad as that may sound, because for ShoWTimE the Zerg from Poland is probably a more difficult opponent. Replays from both ByuN and Elazer are publically available in huge numbers, be it in the form of actual replays, tournament VODs or personal streams. This way ShoWTimE was able to successfully craft a strategy to defeat the GSL champ, even though they never met before. But ShoWTimE and Elazer have met 22 times in the past two years in tournaments, half of those duels even happened this year. And they resulted in more or less equal win rates, showing that even though ShoWTimE should be able to analyse Elazer quite well, it just doesn’t seem to yield any value.

Elazer is such a difficult, unpredictable opponent, you simply cannot prepare for him very well, especially in only a few days of time. Their last three matches all went in favour of Elazer, including a 3-0 victory in WESG in October. The biggest advantage ShoWTimE has over his adversary is experience: The Protoss has been in the spotlight much more often than the Zerg, has reached and won big tournament finals, has experienced defeats and trained his nerves to cope with such a scenario. At the risk of sounding mad again: The guy, who defeated the two time WCS champion Dear and the reigning GSL champion ByuN, is not the overwhelming favourite to win this match and secure the ticket to the Round of 4.

Elazer went against the odds far too many times by now to not be considered an equal opponent in this match. On too many occasions has the Zerg from Poland been underestimated. For the first time, on the biggest stage, he is a contender to go the entire distance.

Dark vs Neeblet

The second match in the Ro8 has the two players in a rather peculiar position. Both Alex “Neeblet” Sunderhaft and Park “Dark” Ryung Woo advanced out of the group stage, and both did so after meeting nothing but Protoss players on the way. Neeblet faced Zest and Patience, while Dark was pitted against PtitDrogo and Stats. Both players showed excellent resilience against the forces of Aiur, as is to be expected. Dark dropped only a single map, and Neeblet took down Patience twice to secure his spot in the quarterfinals. Now the two will meet head-to-head for the first time ever.

While the stakes are through the roof for both of them, expectations vary wildly. Neeblet has been famously heralded as a PvP specialist, and his BlizzCon performance so far has been entirely about the finer points of the mirror match. Maybe it was fate that he was seeded in a group with only one Zerg player, maybe it was just random luck. Whatever the case, people tend to overlook his recent results against Rogue and Pet in KeSPA Cup, and over the summer he took down players like Hydra, Snute and Scarlett, all of them prestigious names in the scene. While Dark might have seemed intimidating just a few months ago, Captain America v2 has since had plenty of experience in facing off against other Korean powerhouses. He will be studying Dark’s games against Stats and PtitDrogo with keen interest, hoping to glean even the tiniest nugget of knowledge. He can also dig deep into the second season of SSL, where Dark played sets against Zest and Classic, some of the most treasured Protoss players of all time. So far Zerg players have fallen victim to ineffective army compositions and sudden tech switches, so maybe that’s where Neeblet will draw his inspiration.

Neeblet expressed nonchalance when asked about facing Dark, but whether it was genuine or he truly has an extra ace up his sleeve, we may never know. The series won't be impossible, but much to his chagrin, Neeblet will have a scant few days to prepare. He will have to watch out for Dark’s aggressive style, as the Zerg player likes early pokes, baneling drops and especially zergling harassment spread over the entire course of the game. Going merely standard against a player of Dark’s caliber can prove to be fatal all too quickly. Make no mistake, Neeblet is the underdog, and it’s on him to prove that he has what it takes against one of the most dangerous opponents of the tournament.

On the flipside, there’s Dark, formerly one of SKT1’s star players. His thirst for glory is well-known, and he’s openly stated that he eventually wants to be as famous as the legendary Boxer. Both the Blizzard and the TeamLiquid community Power Ranks hailed him as the #1 player going into the tournament. In 2016, he’s been one of the consistently top performing players in the world, not an easy feat considering the year has been so volatile for everyone else. He’s certainly lived up to his reputation so far, cleanly crushing PtitDrogo 2-0 and going 2-1 against Stats. In the former series Dark simply snowballed into an unstoppable force twice in a row, while the latter had Stats putting up an actual fight, until Dark’s aggression sealed the series in the third map. If he deals with Neeblet here, he will then face his third foreigner of the tournament in the Ro4. Dark is obviously intent on carving a bloody path on his way to the grand finals.

Neeblet has shown that he’s comfortable with building better army compositions than his opponents in the late game, but Dark is absolutely content just rounding up his army in the early stages and finishing off his opponent if given half a chance. He seems to have the uncanny ability to know exactly how many roaches or banelings are needed to deal backbreaking amounts of damage to an opponent’s game plan. Not only that, Dark’s not afraid to let the match reach the late game when necessary, where he can trust his superior harassment to keep his opponent off balance. While he did admit to feeling nervous in the group stages, getting the first spot in his group must have been a great boost of confidence.

Back in September, Neeblet took the scene by storm with his new, innovative Protoss styles. If he wants to pull off another miracle in the quarterfinals, he has to resort to something similar, because the deck is certainly stacked against him. If needed, Dark will unleash everything he’s got against the American Protoss, because to him, Neeblet is just another stepping stone on the road to the biggest trophy of the year.

ByuN vs TY

For some, this match is truly a dream-come-true. For others, it’s the stuff of nightmares. The two remaining Terran players are about to face each other in what’s going to be the only TvT in the entire tournament. We know for sure that one of the two will advance to the semifinals, a shred of decency in an uncaring world. Whether it should be ByuN or TY, well, there’s really only one way to find out.

The One Man Army showcased probably the most one-sided match in the entire tournament, taking down viOLet in such a swift manner that even he was surprised. ByuN opened fairly standard in the first game, and the Zerg didn’t really have enough units to defend against ByuN’s relentless marine micro. In the second game ByuN was even more aggressive, correctly identifying viOLet’s weakness. However, the Terran was taken down a peg by none other than ShoWTimE in what was probably one of the biggest surprises of the group stage. The German Protoss had already proven himself more than capable of taking things slow, and ByuN just couldn’t find an opening in two macro games, going 0-2. Never one to despair, ByuN quickly bounced back against Dear. The Terran’s aggression and precise control was once again just too much for the opponent, and the Teamless Terran advanced to the quarterfinals.

The mirror match-up is a different ballgame entirely, however. His aggressive pushes have mostly been extremely effective, but TY knows how to be infinitely patient and cautious. Thankfully ByuN himself is no stranger to longer macro games, of course. Compared to his impulsive younger self, he’s the pristine image of a calm and collected player. He’s also famous for his extensive online experience, and for a good reason. Whatever weird and strange strategies the opponent might cook up, ByuN has probably already seen several variations of them. If there’s a weakness, it’s that his TvT experience has mostly been online, and not offline. He’s yet to face TY this year, but he’s been up against players like Ryung, GuMiho and INnoVation, often with great results. Even so, his TvT against top level players is arguably somewhat untested. There’s always the chance that it’ll be ByuN who pulls off something esoteric, but against TY, this might prove to be a mistake.

TY made his way to the quarterfinals through the two Polish Zerg players. Both Nerchio and Elazer were taken down. Eventually Elazer was the one to make it out of Group D, but among the four players, TY was unquestionably the one on top. In a blast from the past, TY opened up against Nerchio with hellions, probably even surprising himself. The result was beautiful however, and Nerchio had no choice but to tap out. In a chaotic second game it came down to the wire, but Nerchio was able to secure a victory for himself. The series tied up, the third map had both players gunning for the end game, and though close, Nerchio was just unable to crack TY’s superior economy. Against the other Polish player in the group, Elazer, TY showed incredible restraint and resilience, especially when defending against a proxy hatchery in the second map. Having taken down the two Zergs, TY took his place as the undisputed winner of the group.

What TY might lack in online experience, he more than makes up for in ProLeague performance. He knows perfectly well how to prepare tailored builds to take down tough opponents, and while ByuN might otherwise easily deal with with the unexpected, with TY’s control any such surprises will be truly dangerous. He has also been able to refine his TvT skills against players of the highest caliber. TY has had almost five days to prepare against the One Man Army, more than enough to know what makes ByuN click. He can retreat behind a Great Wall when needed, but also strike with explosive strength when there’s an opportunity.

For the third match of the quarterfinals, the lines of battle are now drawn. Both players will be looking to build their own impregnable Maginot Line while looking for any opportunities to execute a flank from the north. Positioning will be extremely important, as will mind games. During a BO5 series there’s room to pick up unstoppable momentum, but also more chances for the opponent to catch up. The triumphant Terran will need to be able to adapt quickly even in the most chaotic situations if he is to succeed.

Zest vs Stats

The fourth quarterfinal series is a bittersweet showdown between two former teammates. Even though KT Rolster is no longer active in StarCraft 2, the two share years of history together. They’ve lived together, trained together and competed together. They know each other through and through. Having such close ties means that nothing will really be a surprise. And let’s not forget, they have also built up a reputation as some of the current best players the scene has had the privilege to witness.

Zest really started the year with a bang, but he's since then come to represent the volatile state of the scene with his sloppy summer.

Going to BlizzCon it seems that he has finally started to hit his stride again, and maybe there’s a glimmer of the Zest of old behind his eyes. While both TRUE and Neeblet took a map off him, he still reached the top of his group. TRUE took advantage of Zest’s fixation on sticking to builds, but only managed to do it once. Against Neeblet, Zest finally got his vengeance for KeSPA Cup. The American Protoss did manage to score one map in his favor, the two players trading blows until a chaotic third map was won by Zest, sealing the series.

While he once stood as a Titan above the rest, after the first season of GSL Zest’s form has looked shaky. Going into BlizzCon, it was unsure whether we’d see Zest from summer of 2016 or from spring of 2014, or maybe something from between the two extremes. While he did advance out of his group, nabbing the first place, he’s still struggling to adapt on the fly. Zest prefers to stick to a plan, sometimes to his detriment. He was lauded for his technical skills in the past, but while he was good, he wasn’t maybe quite the same Zest as we would’ve hoped to see from two years ago. For now, the jury’s still out. What’s worse for him, he’s now up against Stats, a former teammate, and what improvements Zest has managed to make in his PvP might all be for naught.

If Zest still has the makings of a flashy star player, Stats is the dependable work horse that you call on when something just has to get done. Second in his group, Stats’s loss was against Dark in the Winners Match, truly nothing to be ashamed of. To advance he took down Snute and PtitDrogo, knocking the latter out of the tournament for good. The PvP series especially showcased his solid decision making skills, and the propensity to go for the killing blow just at the right time. While the match-up is still volatile, it’s settled down from what it was earlier in the year, and calculating minds can easily prevail.

For Stats, however, the series holds extra significance. Taking down a teammate, even a former one, on the way to loftier heights is a symbol of his growth as a player. He’s had a great work ethic for years, but his performance in the individual leagues has yet to net him a trophy, save for this year’s Season 1 Cross Finals. He’s been on the cusp so many times before, but he has just not managed to reach the very top. Maybe by finally letting go of his old team he’s now able to look to the future once more.

The biggest practical challenge for both of these two is of course their shared history. They’ve both been busy refining their own versions of the new style of PvP introduced by Neeblet in September, but they’ve likely shared ideas, training and strategies with each other. We might see elegant cat-and-mouse maneuvers across five maps, or we might see a visceral knife fight that’s over in just three maps. Most likely it’s going to be a mix of both.