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On April 21 2015 07:50 TeeTS wrote:
Everyone who knows a little bit of Marineking can absolutely confirm, that he is one of the very last players, that will ever fix a match in any professional sport/esport for monetary gain.
I for myself would guarantee that for now and for the future. And since this is all about him, I don´t get what´s wrong with you. Marineking allways has been an extremely dedicated and fair compender in BW and SC2. He is an extremely passionate hard worker and he was never the guy that cared about the big bucks, NEVER! I find this whole discussion absolutely disrespectful. You should all be ashamed!
I remember how 'fair' he was at the gstl finals vs Startale yes :')
Anyway this statement doesn't say anything, but at least they made a statement, although 2 weeks late.
I still think he matchfixed which I thought from the first time I watched the game again.
Even some pros think without much doubt that this was in fact matchfixing
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On April 21 2015 17:03 DJHelium wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 17:02 Ingvar wrote:
Ok, this discussion is becoming ridiculous. Let me just state what we know:
1) Pinnacle has voided >5 matches in different Korean tournaments. Every time the person supposed to win the match won it.
2) Korean illegal betting scene is huge. Olimoley (and others) tweeted about tournaments funded only for purpose of betting knowing the result, some people who want to stay anonymous but are vouched for by TL admins also told about it.
3) MK played the worst game in the history of pro SC2. Knowing the timings and lack of hatch in natural and gold bases, he didn't scout with reaper backdoor rocks of his base and didn't see either spine or creep for >1 minute.
4) Every pro who spoke about the issue (like Liquid.Snute in this very thread) doubted that such mistake can be done unintentionally.
5) ~5 years ago we already had the similar story and the coach also told that they asked Savior, he denied it and they saw no evidence that he did it. Later it was proved that there was matchfixing.
A hypothesis that MK fixed that match ties all these things neatly. Since nothing we can tell can change the attitude "this is not a proof", could the people defending MK give at least another plausible explanation to all these points?
Please note, this is not pitchforking, nobody asks for MK to get banned, only for investigation on this matter. Nice summary. Also several pro gamers (MMA, Solar, HuK's korean friends, Axiom players) have said they've been approached by matchfixers, further indicating that there's matchfixing going on.
Well, no shit. When there is a competition and betting, there is match-fixing, too. Nothing new under the sun. Whether MarineKing match-fixed or not we can't be certain without proper investigation. If he did, he should be punished according to the law.
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On April 21 2015 16:38 StarStruck wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 16:22 Serimek wrote:On April 21 2015 08:01 TotalBiscuit wrote:
So I'd like to ask the thread exactly what they expected out of TL. The burden of proof is on the accuser. It is not up to MVP to do the impossible, that being to prove a negative. It is up to everyone else to prove Marineking was involved in matchfixing. Thus far all they have to go on is Pinnacle suspending betting on that match, which is not an awful lot to go on. Suspicious betting activity does not in fact mean that there was any wrongdoing.
I'm honestly a little surprised at some peoples willingness to just say "yup, he obviously did it and this statement doesnt convince me otherwise". Tell me, exactly what would convince you? How exactly could they convince you? They can't, they have no means to, you can't prove conclusively a negative. Release the replay. It's not going to prove shit. Honestly it's like I said, if they were smart. The players would have told each other in person what build they were going to do and MKP is known for having derp-tastic games. If it's true about the odds of that website and they've been known for doing sketchy business before then you might want to find out their contact information and who they speak to and try to track a paper trail of the money because this he said she said bull crap will only get you so far. Speculation needs clear cut direction.
What? No usually only the loser is involved into the matchfixing, byul probably didn't know about it.
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On April 21 2015 17:46 boxerfred wrote:
I expected a thorough, clean, solid and understandable argumentation behind whatever decision/conclusion Team MVP has come to. The outcome of that decision is actually irrelevant. At this point, who really cares if MarineKing is guilty or not? I think it has all come down to a trust issue (at least for me, it has). So the most important thing currently is regaining trust. How can you do that? By transparently explaining your thought process on your decision. He's innocent? Well, hopefully you did some more than repeatedly asking him. He's guilty? Hopefully you did some more than just comparing the replay with other replays. I don't want to judge. I just want to see that organizations are actually honest. Being honest as an organization can not always be a good thing, I know, especially in hard-fought markets. But at this point, the only way to heal the damage that has been done is IMHO transparency and honesty. Let us not only know what you think, but let us know why you think so. Let us reproduce your thought process, give us the chance to agree (or disagree) with your argumentation.
You expected that? Don't you mean "hoped for"? If so, I agree
On April 21 2015 18:01 vanjojojo wrote:
Just my 2 cents but has it not occurred to anyone that someone with mkps experience / mechanics no matter how much his got worse or better over the years was going to matchfix - is he really going to make it............ this obvious?
I mean think about it - if you're smart you'll figure it out.
"Facepalm" this has been discussed so many times in the other thread. But I should inform you: What about if you're trying to throw, you are nervous, but then you scout your opponent going for a crazy all-in build. A build you, normally, should be able to stop because of the early scouting of it. What now?
The "mistake" MK made was to send out the SCV scout. But how could he have known?
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Just my 2 cents but has it not occurred to anyone that someone with mkps experience / mechanics no matter how much his got worse or better over the years was going to matchfix - is he really going to make it............ this obvious?
I mean think about it - if you're smart you'll figure it out.
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On April 21 2015 17:52 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 17:46 boxerfred wrote:
I expected a thorough, clean, solid and understandable argumentation behind whatever decision/conclusion Team MVP has come to. The outcome of that decision is actually irrelevant. At this point, who really cares if MarineKing is guilty or not? I think it has all come down to a trust issue (at least for me, it has). So the most important thing currently is regaining trust. How can you do that? By transparently explaining your thought process on your decision. He's innocent? Well, hopefully you did some more than repeatedly asking him. He's guilty? Hopefully you did some more than just comparing the replay with other replays. I don't want to judge. I just want to see that organizations are actually honest. Being honest as an organization can not always be a good thing, I know, especially in hard-fought markets. But at this point, the only way to heal the damage that has been done is IMHO transparency and honesty. Let us not only know what you think, but let us know why you think so. Let us reproduce your thought process, give us the chance to agree (or disagree) with your argumentation.
You expected that? Don't you mean "hoped for"? If so, I agree
I expected. It's a naive expectation of course. But it is what a company of integrity should've done. If they don't act like a serious business, well, then fuck them. I'm not putting passion or anything into a scene that fools and betrays me while making absolutely no effort to clear anythign up.
It's easy since it's all about entertainment: I am not entertained. I pay somewhere else for something else then.
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On April 21 2015 18:04 boxerfred wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 17:52 Penev wrote:On April 21 2015 17:46 boxerfred wrote:
I expected a thorough, clean, solid and understandable argumentation behind whatever decision/conclusion Team MVP has come to. The outcome of that decision is actually irrelevant. At this point, who really cares if MarineKing is guilty or not? I think it has all come down to a trust issue (at least for me, it has). So the most important thing currently is regaining trust. How can you do that? By transparently explaining your thought process on your decision. He's innocent? Well, hopefully you did some more than repeatedly asking him. He's guilty? Hopefully you did some more than just comparing the replay with other replays. I don't want to judge. I just want to see that organizations are actually honest. Being honest as an organization can not always be a good thing, I know, especially in hard-fought markets. But at this point, the only way to heal the damage that has been done is IMHO transparency and honesty. Let us not only know what you think, but let us know why you think so. Let us reproduce your thought process, give us the chance to agree (or disagree) with your argumentation.
You expected that? Don't you mean "hoped for"? If so, I agree I expected. It's a naive expectation of course. But it is what a company of integrity should've done. If they don't act like a serious business, well, then fuck them. I'm not putting passion or anything into a scene that fools and betrays me while making absolutely no effort to clear anythign up. It's easy since it's all about entertainment: I am not entertained. I pay somewhere else for something else then.
So you need to stop following every competitive activity. Or wake up and realize how the world works.
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On April 21 2015 18:05 sAsImre wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 18:04 boxerfred wrote:On April 21 2015 17:52 Penev wrote:On April 21 2015 17:46 boxerfred wrote:
I expected a thorough, clean, solid and understandable argumentation behind whatever decision/conclusion Team MVP has come to. The outcome of that decision is actually irrelevant. At this point, who really cares if MarineKing is guilty or not? I think it has all come down to a trust issue (at least for me, it has). So the most important thing currently is regaining trust. How can you do that? By transparently explaining your thought process on your decision. He's innocent? Well, hopefully you did some more than repeatedly asking him. He's guilty? Hopefully you did some more than just comparing the replay with other replays. I don't want to judge. I just want to see that organizations are actually honest. Being honest as an organization can not always be a good thing, I know, especially in hard-fought markets. But at this point, the only way to heal the damage that has been done is IMHO transparency and honesty. Let us not only know what you think, but let us know why you think so. Let us reproduce your thought process, give us the chance to agree (or disagree) with your argumentation.
You expected that? Don't you mean "hoped for"? If so, I agree I expected. It's a naive expectation of course. But it is what a company of integrity should've done. If they don't act like a serious business, well, then fuck them. I'm not putting passion or anything into a scene that fools and betrays me while making absolutely no effort to clear anythign up. It's easy since it's all about entertainment: I am not entertained. I pay somewhere else for something else then. So you need to stop following every competitive activity. Or wake up and realize how the world works.
You're oversimplifying and generalizing. I'm talking about the very actual case of match fixing in Korean SC2. I don't think Dreamhacks or IEMs are fixed in the outcome. I don't believe that WCS Premier is fixed.
I should mention that I initially didn't think that Proleague/GSL/NSSL included match fixing. Well, turned out I was wrong, though I wasn't a super hardcore "NO FIXING HERE" guy but more a "well I didn't think about that possibility until now" guy.
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On April 21 2015 18:01 vanjojojo wrote:
Just my 2 cents but has it not occurred to anyone that someone with mkps experience / mechanics no matter how much his got worse or better over the years was going to matchfix - is he really going to make it............ this obvious?
I mean think about it - if you're smart you'll figure it out.
A number of things could have happened. I think it's likely that he just knew he had to lose the game, but at the start of the game obviously he doesn't know how yet, as it depends on what ByuL is doing (and ByuL is most likely not part of the matchfixing in this case). Then he scouts by accident the proxy from ByuL and panics, because maybe he thought he would play a macrogame that he could lose smoothly.
In the end, players do not practice for matchfixing, they practice to win, so it doesn't seem strange to me that they wouldn't know how to do it very well.
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On April 21 2015 11:22 lichter wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 11:16 StarGalaxy wrote:On April 21 2015 11:06 lichter wrote:On April 21 2015 10:58 StarGalaxy wrote:On April 21 2015 10:51 lichter wrote:
I believe there was one or two (I think it was one) cases where the player that was supposed to lose won. I don't remember the specific game but I recall it being discussed. Byul vs Terror. The betting lines were not voided. The betting lines were off but not as ridiculously as in the voided ones. I think people also misunderstand the role of Pinnacle and Pinnacle's bettors in this. The matchfixers aren't betting on Pinnacle. Matchfixers are betting on Korean betting sites. The curious activity that occurs on Pinnacle is due to some observant bettors that look at the Korean betting sites taking advantage of what appear to be fixed games. When they see curious activity on Korean betting sites, they try to take advantage by betting the same way on Pinnacle. There are several possible scenarios possible from this type of activity: 1.) Multiple Pinnacle bettors try to ride the wave and the odds explode, leading to cancelled bets — this is what we've seen happen 2.) Only a handful of Pinnacle bettors notice the possible fix, and the odds don't move enough to give us a clue — since the lines did not get voided, we don't realize these games could have been fixed 3.) Pinnacle bettors see a potential fix, bet like crazy on it, only to realize it was not a fix — this may have happened with TerrOr vs ByuL, and it may have happened in other games as well (only to fortunately get it right) That's why Pinnacle can't stop matchfixing or the illegal betting. What happens on Pinnacle is merely a bunch of bettors trying to ride the wave, and they have no direct involvement with the fixing. The wave ridding makes no sense. Nobody does that. A good bettor does the exact opposite. Whenever you see a big steam of money the opposite line gets more interesting to bet on. Why would anyone risk betting huge amounts of money at terrible odds? Either they lose it or the bet gets voided. You may be right about the korean betting sides and that Pinnacle is just a side effect. What I and other bettors think is that the match fixer is selling the information to a group of people. That's why Pinnacle and other sites have probably trouble just banning the accounts of the fixers. It would be an easy fix otherwise. It would be quite obvious if only a low number of accounts bet tens of thousands of money on a single match. Bets got voided in cases when people tried to sell it to too many other people. I think there were a lot more cases when Pinnacle didn't void the bets but the match was clearly match fixed. (See http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/476033-pinnacle-voids-dark-vs-san-bets-due-to-match-manipulation-concerns?page=52#1034 ) We've already talked to Pinnacle and they seem hesitant to do anything to the accounts, since they can't prove that the accounts were in on the fix (illegal) and not merely riding the wave (not illegal). It's entirely possible that some Pinnacle bettors are buying for info on the fix, though, and then got greedy. Every instance of bets being voided is just stupidity on the part of the bettors. It's very very possible that there were other fixes that no one noticed, but there's also a chance that there were games that appeared fixed due to people trying to ride the wave and getting it wrong.
It's even entirely possible that the people betting on pinnacle are completely on the level. If the lines go nuts on korean betting sites first, an enterprising individual could guarantee profit by arbitraging the difference between the two. The only risk you'd undertake is one of the ends not honoring your bet (like what Pinnacle did).
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This is blatantly obvious matchfixing, going only by the game itself. There is no other explanation, for a good player failing to spot something on his minimap for a minute straight, when nothing else is going on and he has already knows there is something fishy about the Zerg build order. I would be surprised if anybody who has played the game at a decent level disagrees.
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On April 21 2015 18:10 ZenithM wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 18:01 vanjojojo wrote:
Just my 2 cents but has it not occurred to anyone that someone with mkps experience / mechanics no matter how much his got worse or better over the years was going to matchfix - is he really going to make it............ this obvious?
I mean think about it - if you're smart you'll figure it out. A number of things could have happened. I think it's likely that he just knew he had to lose the game, but at the start of the game obviously he doesn't know how yet, as it depends on what ByuL is doing (and ByuL is most likely not part of the matchfixing in this case). Then he scouts by accident the proxy from ByuL and panics, because maybe he thought he would play a macrogame that he could lose smoothly. In the end, players do not practice for matchfixing, they practice to win, so it doesn't seem strange to me that they wouldn't know how to do it very well.
In my opinion (please note that) sorry that's not true
They practice to win yep it's true but not knowing how to hide the fact they're match fixing is not.
Every pro will know what's going to lose them the game in their mind (based on what they see and do and how they feel)
Its not hard to hide. Plus its not unusual to see mkp go 10/10 retard mode he does it from time to time anyway. but match fixing? that guys so emotional he probably cries at a puppy sleeping.
And his not that stupid to make it that obvious - again just my 2 cents sorry if I offended anyone.
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If we're going by assumptions why not just assume that MVP is in on it? fuck it they need money right?
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On April 21 2015 18:36 Exstasy wrote:
If we're going by assumptions why not just assume that MVP is in on it? fuck it they need money right?
There's no definite proof MK matchfixed but there IS some pretty incriminating evidence, certainly more than just "assumptions". There isn't anything that incriminates MVP, so that's why.
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On April 21 2015 11:06 lichter wrote:
3.) Pinnacle bettors see a potential fix, bet like crazy on it, only to realize it was not a fix — this may have happened with TerrOr vs ByuL, and it may have happened in other games as well (only to fortunately get it right)
You know that's less than 0,01% probability for 7 matches?
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On April 21 2015 18:38 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 18:36 Exstasy wrote:
If we're going by assumptions why not just assume that MVP is in on it? fuck it they need money right? There's no definite proof MK matchfixed but there IS some pretty incriminating evidence, certainly more than just "assumptions". There isn't anything that incriminates MVP, so that's why.
I know man, I was being facetious.
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On April 21 2015 18:53 Jarree wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 11:06 lichter wrote:
3.) Pinnacle bettors see a potential fix, bet like crazy on it, only to realize it was not a fix — this may have happened with TerrOr vs ByuL, and it may have happened in other games as well (only to fortunately get it right)
You know that's less than 0,01% probability for 7 matches?
2^-7 = 0.78%
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On April 21 2015 18:56 Exstasy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 18:38 Penev wrote:On April 21 2015 18:36 Exstasy wrote:
If we're going by assumptions why not just assume that MVP is in on it? fuck it they need money right? There's no definite proof MK matchfixed but there IS some pretty incriminating evidence, certainly more than just "assumptions". There isn't anything that incriminates MVP, so that's why. I know man, I was being facetious.
I don't know anymore :/
I mean, with posts like this:
On April 21 2015 07:50 TeeTS wrote:
Everyone who knows a little bit of Marineking can absolutely confirm, that he is one of the very last players, that will ever fix a match in any professional sport/esport for monetary gain.
I for myself would guarantee that for now and for the future. And since this is all about him, I don´t get what´s wrong with you. Marineking allways has been an extremely dedicated and fair compender in BW and SC2. He is an extremely passionate hard worker and he was never the guy that cared about the big bucks, NEVER! I find this whole discussion absolutely disrespectful. You should all be ashamed!
It's insanely naive but he is actually being serious isn't he? :-S
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On April 21 2015 19:03 Darkwhite wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2015 18:53 Jarree wrote:On April 21 2015 11:06 lichter wrote:
3.) Pinnacle bettors see a potential fix, bet like crazy on it, only to realize it was not a fix — this may have happened with TerrOr vs ByuL, and it may have happened in other games as well (only to fortunately get it right)
You know that's less than 0,01% probability for 7 matches? 2^-7 = 0.78%
That's assuming 50-50, I don't remember the previous ones, but I went with Creator-Soulkey odds (which I admit, I didn't even check)
edit: still didn't quite match. less than 0,1% more like
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EPT
