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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) |
I cant stand to these guys "dont post these things when there is no proof".
Matchfixing is a thing, in sports, in esports and in SC II. When dont know who is involved yet, we dont need witchhunts, we dont know which games, tournaments/online series, Solar talking about an offer) but we know it exists. So many evidence, so many things have happend.
Olivia does the right thing to speak it out loud in the public.She does not do wrong, because she has no 100% proof, she does right, because the scene has to focus alot more on it. Blizzard does not care, KESPA does not care, ESL does not care (or they care but tell us nothing), but we care and we want to have more info. Olivia brings more pressure on the ones who could tell us more.
I cant stand why people say "just shut up Olivia", because it is something to stand up and talk about.
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Well SwoopAE is a boss and San is a piece of shit... I saw enough substantial proof in the OP to come to that conclusion. The question now is how many others were there? Like with BW the story broke with Savior and in the end there were like 10+ players involved. Hopefully there are some serious investigations to come and that all those involved are dealt with as harshly as they were in BW, lifetime ban, jail time etc. etc.
User was warned for this post
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On February 09 2015 05:57 CrayonPopChoa wrote:
Well SwoopAE is a boss and San is a piece of shit... I saw enough substantial proof in the OP to come to that conclusion. The question now is how many others were there? Like with BW the story broke with Savior and in the end there were like 10+ players involved. Hopefully there are some serious investigations to come and that all those involved are dealt with as harshly as they were in BW, lifetime ban, jail time etc. etc.
dude are you fucking kidding me, there's still NO evidence that San intentionally lost the game. Swoopae made very good points about how the betting works and why pinnacle would void the match, but if you're gonna just connect the dots and accuse San of being guilty/complicit in this in any way then maybe you shouldn't post here.
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On February 09 2015 06:06 KingofdaHipHop wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 05:57 CrayonPopChoa wrote:
Well SwoopAE is a boss and San is a piece of shit... I saw enough substantial proof in the OP to come to that conclusion. The question now is how many others were there? Like with BW the story broke with Savior and in the end there were like 10+ players involved. Hopefully there are some serious investigations to come and that all those involved are dealt with as harshly as they were in BW, lifetime ban, jail time etc. etc. dude are you fucking kidding me, there's still NO evidence that San intentionally lost the game. Swoopae made very good points about how the betting works and why pinnacle would void the match, but if you're gonna just connect the dots and accuse San of being guilty/complicit in this in any way then maybe you shouldn't post here.
Report and carry on.
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On February 09 2015 03:33 Jett.Jack.Alvir wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 03:29 PinheadXXXXXX wrote:On February 09 2015 03:24 Jett.Jack.Alvir wrote:
So how are the organizers of these small tournaments involved? I am so confused…
Her tweets seem to imply that basetrade is also involved in this betting scandal. Please someone get me more information, I am so thirsty! The idea is that a "sponsor" gives the tournament money on the condition that there is a long stream delay, so they can bet on the games while already knowing the results. Ah I see, so this doesn't directly connect with the Pinnacle issue, unless of course Pinnacle is putting these small tournaments on their platform. Can anyone confirm if these small tournaments and showmatches can be betted on betting platforms?
Pinnacle only offers bets for major tournaments. Proleague, Code S, Starleague, IEM, DreamHack, etc etc. That doesn't mean illegal Korean bookmakers or other minor sportsbooks aren't offering odds on the matches though. I'm certain you could bet on them somewhere.
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On February 06 2015 03:39 dsousa wrote:
Like it never happened.
2/5/2015
GG.
So KeSPA already has a new policy to announce for online tournament participation after Olivia's tweets but still nothing to say about this?
GG indeed.
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Meanwhile Dark goes 1-4 in his GSL group.
Life got ling speed @9:37 in his last Proleague match and lost, the day after he won IEM.
Proleague results just don't make sense..... I wonder why?
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On February 12 2015 04:38 dsousa wrote:
Meanwhile Dark goes 1-4 in his GSL group.
Life got ling speed @9:37 in his last Proleague match and lost, the day after he won IEM.
Proleague results just don't make sense..... I wonder why?
SUDDENLY, all player mistakes are proof of match fixing.
Please, spare us this kind of speculation...
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On February 12 2015 04:38 dsousa wrote:
Meanwhile Dark goes 1-4 in his GSL group.
Life got ling speed @9:37 in his last Proleague match and lost, the day after he won IEM.
Proleague results just don't make sense..... I wonder why?
Please, teamleagues results never made sense when correlated with individual leagues results, spare us your sick analysis.
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So i'm not one to make a direct accusation, but Dream vs Super opened at 1.92 each side. A small amount of money came in on Dream for the series which is normal as he's probably a small favourite here. Anything past 1.50 would be hard to justify for the series let alone one map.
Just before the game (I missed it in real time but have been given the screenshots)
This happens
http://puu.sh/gdiwZ/6838fc7fa7.png
Apparently Pinnacle took the line down although I don't have confirmation of that.
This line is again impossible with the prior information on specifically Map 1
I'm just here to provide the information.
Is it possible that someone thought Dream was a 7-1 favourite to win the first map specifically (not the whole series) when the line opened at even money and objectively dream might have been a small favourite at best? He'd just come off an awful Code S performance as well so it's not like he's in raging hot form all of the sudden this week
Someone knew something about Super. That's the only explanation. I won't call the match fixed without proof, but this massive amount of money last minute on Dream to the extent he's suddenly an 80something % favourite in map 1? Really? Again, the amount of money needed to move this line this far would be staggering.
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I've emailed Pinnacle asking for a response or statement on the matter. Will update the thread if I receive anything.
Again, I can't directly accuse anyone of match fixing but it sure as hell looks like that's what's going on (the only other possible explanation is an error in Pinnacle's algorithm and someone betting tens of thousands of dollars plus at absurdly bad lines on random matches, pounding it over and over dozens of times for the max regardless of price)
Just to clarify this is the first Korean series the suspicious line movement has happened on since the first time it happened (to my knowledge) but there have obviously been a lot of strange results this month. Granted that alone doesn't mean anything, and Dream winning Map 1 and the series was not surprising. This line is still impossible to achieve legitimately though.
I'll put it this way. Does anyone really believe Super was a HUGE favourite over Innovation in Map 1 several weeks ago when this first occurred (a few days after San vs Dark) but is now a 7-1 underdog to Dream, again specifically on Map 1, several weeks later?
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That's fking insane odds. There's a cancer in the scene.
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Wait...
Are you guys saying that esports is like the WWF? Some of the matches... aren't real?
Nonetheless: Wrestlemania is going to be sick.
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Well, he did lose to jjakji two days before in the IEM qualifiers, according to Aligulac. Maybe jjakji revealed a weakness in Super's play.
Jjakji beat him on Catallena and Deadwing. Map 1 vs Dream was on Nimbus.
Also worth pointing out is that T has a 60% win rate (236-157) vs P on Nimbus, according to Liquipedia.
EDIT: Dream had a bad performance in Code S the night before but he did 2-0 Rain and historically his strongest match-up is against Protoss.
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On February 27 2015 10:11 coverpunch wrote:
...
None of that makes any difference. Even if the San Dark match odds were within a realm of possibility, these aren't.
Either Pinnacle has serious software problems, someone is trying to lose money on purpose, or this match was fixed.
edit: if the odds shown on swoopae's pic are correct, of course someone could be trolling him etc.
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On February 27 2015 10:31 Jarree wrote:None of that makes any difference. Even if the San Dark match odds were within a realm of possibility, these aren't. Either Pinnacle has serious software problems, someone is trying to lose money on purpose, or this match was fixed. edit: if the odds shown on swoopae's pic are correct, of course someone could be trolling him etc.
And we're supposed to assume that players taking dives on purpose is more likely than a bettor has figured out how to exploit the online betting system where this has all occurred?
EDIT: I suppose one question is whether the potential profit from this bet could be more than the $2500 that Super gave up in losing (i.e. the difference between reward for quarterfinalists vs semifinalists)? It doesn't make much sense for him to lose on purpose for a smaller amount than that because you might even have to bake in the lost WCS points and Super's reduced chances of going to Blizzcon.
Admittedly, it does make more sense in the quarterfinals than at any other time since he doesn't have to do the qualifiers again. But I think you're still stuck with the big problem of finding the bag of money that changes hands here for Super.
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Look nothing is conclusive until we have more info. This info is secondhand but I trust the guy I got it off and Pinnacle will confirm or deny that screenshot soon enough. I got an email back from Pinnacle saying the appropriate person will get back to me.
I'm not denying Dream was the favourite. I would have bet on him myself at even money. If he was a 2-1 favourite even, that's a bit extreme for one map but sure whatever. 3-1, sure. 7-1 is impossible. There is no proleague-caliber player who is a 7-1 favourite over any other proleague-caliber player in a single map. Remember, the match opened at even money, and Dream was hovering around even money to -140 range for most of the week. Minutes before the match after the line has been available all week, people decide to dump money on him and KEEP dumping money on him when he's a 6-1, 7-1 favourite?
For example, in the last few weeks alone, ForGG was not this big a favourite over Sen. Approximately 4-1.
Nobody in proleague was this big of a favourite against Terror in a bo1 (which is what this bet was, on the first map specifically not the series)
No proleague team was this big of a favourite over any other proleague team for all of r1. SKTT1 was HALF of this big a favourite against Prime, and thats over a lower variance bo5 match series.
TY was not even close to this big of a favourite against Guilty, probably the biggest upset in all of r1 Proleague. Guilty was on an 11 series losing streak at the time.
Tangtang was not even close to this big of an underdog in his lone proleague appearance
The closest line I can see to this on any upcoming game is Hydra vs Morrow. For the series, not one map. Based on the series price and price on Hydra to win 2-0; Hydra would be slightly more than a 4-1 favourite in Game 1 on current odds if they offered that bet. Nearly twice as likely that Morrow beats Hydra in 1 map as Super beating Dream in 1 map. Does that seem reasonable to anyone?
Sorry for overuse of examples but i'm trying to show how outlandish this betting line is. To get to -700ish in a bo1 series in a Korean vs Korean match, the best example I could come up with on aligulac that sets the right probabilities is horror vs innovation or cj hero. Does anyone think Dream vs Super is a mismatch of that caliber?
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coverpunch: the amount of money needed to move the betting line to where it was is DRASTICALLY larger than $2500. Just for what it's worth i'd say it's ten to twenty times that amount (that is an estimate as I wasn't watching the line moving in real time) Not to mention if you lose map 1 in suspicious fashion in a bo5 series, you still have a nonzero chance to win the series.
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Again, there is no conclusive proof of match fixing but there IS conclusive proof that something suspicious happened again, and this is the fourth time (three suspicious line movements leading to betting lines being taken down in Korean matches, two of which were on Game 1 of a series and the third of which was in a best of 1 proleague match, and the olimoley sponsors stream delay with observers for betting etc which is a seperate issue)
It's a fact that something shady is going on. Exactly what that is is not up to me to determine.
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EPT
