EPTGSL Season One
Code S
Cry Panic and let slip the dogs of Code S
Ro32 Group C:
GuMiho, Rain, Life, Panic
Brackets and standings on Liquipedia
Cry Panic and let slip the dogs of Code S
by munch
While Group B was regarded by some as the Group of Death, the members of Group C arguably have the toughest road to the Round of 16. It’s hard to pick out three players in better form than GuMiho, Life and Rain right now — in the past two months, these three representatives of their races have combined for a +70% winrate. Add in the obligatory Choya-fueled wildcard of Panic, and we have a group which could go in any direction.
Despite being one of the most accomplished teamleague players in Starcraft history (including an astonishing 8-0 streak to close out back-to-back GSTL final victories for FXOpen),
Invasion.GuMiho has never had much success in individual tournaments. It has been three years since his previous appearance in an offline Round of 4, one-and-a-half years since his last Code S showing. Yet, consider this — from January 1st to September 1st of last year, GuMiho has played 97 games with an unremarkable win rate of 56%. Since then, he has played a staggering 544 games with a win rate of 69%. Something has stirred within the beast. Two factors are worth mentioning here. Firstly, this great shift in output parallels the resurgence of the Asian online scene. GuMiho has been a staple in this niche, from the Chinese hosted Leifeng Cup to Olimoleague and the regular Basetrade TV-hosted tournaments. He has won two Olimoleagues and racked up an obscene 12 Leifeng Cup victories. Secondly, the chosen date may be not a coincidence. September 1st 2014 marked GuMiho’s departure from CJ Entus and KeSPA. Months after the Great Korean Exodus, results show a huge variance in the fortunes of the departed. Some, like MarineKing, were tempted back into the fold. Others, like DongRaeGu, had to suffer for months before finally finding a spot on another team. With his minor but plentiful success in the aforementioned area, GuMiho is the shining beacon of hope for those looking for life outside of the KeSPA regime. And yet, all his success has come in the relative downtime at the end of 2014. As the Korean Starcraft scene stirs from winter hibernation, it’s time for GuMiho to truly show what he can do.
Like GuMiho,
mYi.Rain will be hoping that his off-season switch will pay off. Since leaving SK Telecom T1, he has maintained a 70% win percentage in a variety of online cups and qualifiers; with his consistency seemingly undisturbed, he must be considered a strong contender for the Code S crown. However, it has been over 400 days since Rain’s last championship — 2013 Hot6ix Cup. For a player of his caliber, that must sting. Time after time he fell short last year while in seemingly untouchable form: 2nd in Proleague. 2nd at IEM San José. Round of 4 at IEM Cologne, and Round of 4/8/16 finishes in the GSL. If a certain zerg hadn't earned more conspicuous infamy in the same vein, there’d be a strong argument that Rain was the strongest performer in 2014 unrewarded by a championship. But as even soO found out this season, you can only maintain your status as a contender for so long. It will be fascinating to see which Rain will emerge as 2015 begins.After a relatively barren start to 2014,
Startale.Life looked nigh on unstoppable in November. His performance at Blizzcon was a convincing audition for the title of best Starcraft 2 player in the world, and only ForGG’s two year European campaign coming to fruition at Dreamhack Winter stopped him from picking up 2 world championship titles. Since then, Life’s results have been streaky. Swift revenge came with a 3-0 against ForGG in the finals of the CaseKing X-Mas Cup, suggesting that he may have designed a solution to his mech woes; a conclusion immediately countered by his loss to Bbyong in Proleague. Equally, Life seems to be faltering in ZvP, dropping series to PartinG and Hurricane in addition to last week’s Proleague loss to Dear. However, expect him to pick up steam when the big individual leagues roll around. Life’s November success may prove to be a sign of things to come.MVP.Panic can’t be too pleased with the group draw he has been handed. In his only prior Code S appearance back in 2014, he was summarily given the boot by soO and sOs, both opponents delivering 2-0's with clear skill gaps on display. Has anything changed a year down the line? Well, Panic’s qualifier results were impressive — clean 2-0s against HyuN and Hack, as well as a 2-1 victory over last season’s semifinalist Cure. However, they go completely against all the other recent data we have on him. Panic has only reaped a 8-11 record (42% win rate) since October; without his shining GSL run, he would be an abysmal 2-10. He has recorded upsets in the past though. Most notably he earned a triple kill of Ryung, Heart and INnoVation in the 2013 GSTL Season 2, as well as a victory over GuMiho the following week. Whether he can translate this potential into more meaningful victories is the question he faces tonight.Predictions:
On principle Panic is the clear favorite to be eliminated first. Thus qualification will be decided by a tight 3-way showdown. While Life showed dominance in ZvT at Blizzcon and Dreamhack Winter, GuMiho’s style offers a different challenge. With aggressive openings aplenty, GuMiho’s favoured transitions into mech and late game Sky Terran may force Life to switch out of his typical muta-ling-bane composition. While Life has shown a willingness to use swarm hosts in the past, it's a style that's certainly not tailored to his strengths. The match will hinge on the early game; if GuMiho is able to successfully transition into the late game, then I feel that he should be able to take the set.
Traditionally, Rain has been the great macro protoss of Korea. He showcases watertight play in the early game, preferring to outplay his opponents late on. However, his nailbiting 3-4 loss to herO in the finals of IEM San José showed an increased willingness to mix up his gameplay, and it will be interesting to see whether it’s a trend he’ll continue to adopt throughout the year. Unfortunately, it’s a shame that one of these three players will have to exit Code S at the first hurdle, and Rain is my choice. Life’s dismantling of Zest and
San at Blizzcon was an indicator of his comfort in taking on standard protoss play, whilst GuMiho’s form in TvP, including a comfortable victory over Rain in the Eizo Holiday Brawl, has been magnificent.GuMiho >Life
Rain > Panic
GuMiho > Rain
Life > Panic
Rain < Life
GuMiho and Life to advance.
