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WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 12

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 10 11 12 13 14 49 Next All
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
March 05 2015 13:58 GMT
#221
Man why did I sold Dream T_T
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
March 05 2015 13:58 GMT
#222
[image loading]

Before the update!
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-05 14:07:58
March 05 2015 14:07 GMT
#223
On March 05 2015 22:58 sharkie wrote:
[image loading]

Before the update!

#1 lllllllllll Kappa's team is worth 12,827 WCS Points with Life (5375), NaNiwa (1375), Suppy (675), puCK (825), Hydra (3188), and 1389 unspent points.
#2 sharkie's team is worth 11,946 WCS Points with ForGG (3363), Dream (2800), Snute (2350), Hydra (3188), and 245 unspent points.

much closer now, and the aligulac rating will update in like 4 to 6 hours so that'll help you more, right now he's really unfavored against Maru in the finals though lol

kr Dream vs kr Maru in
in StarLeague Season 1 finals.
kr Dream is at 80.14% Blizzcon Chances.
26.61% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.26%.
73.39% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 73.93%.
kr Maru is at 99.74% Blizzcon Chances.
73.39% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
26.61% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.02%.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
March 05 2015 14:20 GMT
#224
wow Life's rating fell down like crazy
Dream's didnt increase indeed
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
March 05 2015 14:21 GMT
#225
On March 05 2015 23:20 sharkie wrote:
wow Life's rating fell down like crazy
Dream's didnt increase indeed

Ugh. I should have sold Life.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-06 02:28:04
March 06 2015 02:22 GMT
#226
WCS Predictor 2015
GSL Code S Season 1 Quarterfinals Day 2

kr Life vs kr INnoVation in
in GSL Code S Season 1 quarterfinals.
kr Life is at 99.9% Blizzcon Chances.
52.66% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
47.34% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.8%.
kr INnoVation is at 78.56% Blizzcon Chances.
47.34% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 87.16%.
52.66% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 70.83%.

kr Rogue vs kr herO in
in GSL Code S Season 1 quarterfinals.
kr Rogue is at 66.81% Blizzcon Chances.
37.38% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 78.69%.
62.62% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 59.72%.
kr herO is at 98.75% Blizzcon Chances.
62.62% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.66%.
37.38% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.23%.

+ Show Spoiler [Other Match] +

kr PartinG vs kr MMA in
in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals.
kr PartinG is at 89.61% Blizzcon Chances.
64.66% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 95.09%.
35.34% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 79.59%.
kr MMA is at 46.71% Blizzcon Chances.
35.34% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 63.91%.
64.66% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 37.31%.


GSL Code S Season 1
kr PartinG has a 35.76% chance to win
----going from 89.61% to 99.56% if they get 1st, or 89.57% if they get 2nd.
kr herO has a 16.34% chance to win
----going from 98.75% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.95% if they get 2nd.
kr Life has a 15.35% chance to win
----going from 99.9% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they get 2nd.
kr MMA has a 13.99% chance to win
----going from 46.71% to 83.41% if they get 1st, or 51.12% if they get 2nd.
kr INnoVation has a 12.32% chance to win
----going from 78.56% to 99.28% if they get 1st, or 88.75% if they get 2nd.
kr Rogue has a 6.23% chance to win
----going from 66.81% to 99.24% if they get 1st, or 83.99% if they get 2nd.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-06 13:03:04
March 06 2015 11:12 GMT
#227
On March 05 2015 23:21 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2015 23:20 sharkie wrote:
wow Life's rating fell down like crazy
Dream's didnt increase indeed

Ugh. I should have sold Life.

+ Show Spoiler +
of course....I buy Life and he loses, I sell Life and he wins T_T
at least herO won for me
"Expert" mods4ever.com
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
March 06 2015 14:45 GMT
#228
On March 06 2015 20:12 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2015 23:21 The_Templar wrote:
On March 05 2015 23:20 sharkie wrote:
wow Life's rating fell down like crazy
Dream's didnt increase indeed

Ugh. I should have sold Life.

+ Show Spoiler +
of course....I buy Life and he loses, I sell Life and he wins T_T
at least herO won for me

+ Show Spoiler +
I ended up deciding to not sell Life
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
qqMagnuz
Profile Joined February 2015
44 Posts
March 06 2015 15:58 GMT
#229
Just saw this site and realized it had a fantasy 5 man team, so I immediately had to sign up for that!

My team now consists of (from most expensive to cheapest):

* Snute (2350 pts) - Can he take the final step and break through as a top 16 player around the World and make it to Blizzcon? He's usually a pretty consistent performer and racks up a lot of points throughout the year in different tournaments. Maybe he can also win a WCS Season this year. The sky is the limit, but it depends how much he improved from 2014.

* Taeja (1750 pts) - Weak start to 2015 after dominating much of 2014, especially during the summer. He definitely has the talent to be one of the top players in the World, the only question which remains is if he has the motivation and adaptability now that LotV will come out soon. A true star which needs to return to form.

* Bomber (1600 pts) - Same story with Bomber as with Taeja, weak start in 2015 but again the sky is the limit in terms of personal skill. Also needs to adapt to LotV since he is once of the older SC2 players at 27, so there is some risk. Hopefully he can deliver and score a number of good results throughout 2015, if he finds his inner motivation.

* Serral (1275 pts) - I was mightily impressed with this young Finn the last couple of months, especially in WCS lately. In my eyes he could be the next great foreigner, and 2015 might be his breakout year in the international SC2 scene. He's only 16 years old but still playing so well, he is indeed a young but fearless Zerg to watch out for in 2015.

* Pigbaby (575 pts) - For the last spot I had to find someone for under 800 points who I felt had a decent chance to deliver right away in 2015. It was between Pigbaby and jjakji. Pigbaby won 1 season of WCS America last year over Bomber 4-3 so he has proven he can win tournaments. He cost almost 200 more points than the aligulac median gave him, but I felt it was well worth to give him a shot even though he had to return to Korea. Maybe it will take him some time, but I think Pigbaby has the potential to be a Code S player in Korea, if everything goes right for him. At 22, he's a good mix of experience and talent.
Dingodile
Profile Joined December 2011
4133 Posts
March 06 2015 16:19 GMT
#230
I dont know if Liquipedia has this ranking but I like to see a "total WCS points" ranking. We have total earnings ranking (#1 MC), We have a total premier title ranking (#1 Taeja).
Grubby | ToD | Moon | Lyn | Sky
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-06 16:21:26
March 06 2015 16:20 GMT
#231
On March 07 2015 00:58 qqMagnuz wrote:
Just saw this site and realized it had a fantasy 5 man team, so I immediately had to sign up for that!

My team now consists of (from most expensive to cheapest):

* Snute (2350 pts) - Can he take the final step and break through as a top 16 player around the World and make it to Blizzcon? He's usually a pretty consistent performer and racks up a lot of points throughout the year in different tournaments. Maybe he can also win a WCS Season this year. The sky is the limit, but it depends how much he improved from 2014.

* Taeja (1750 pts) - Weak start to 2015 after dominating much of 2014, especially during the summer. He definitely has the talent to be one of the top players in the World, the only question which remains is if he has the motivation and adaptability now that LotV will come out soon. A true star which needs to return to form.

* Bomber (1600 pts) - Same story with Bomber as with Taeja, weak start in 2015 but again the sky is the limit in terms of personal skill. Also needs to adapt to LotV since he is once of the older SC2 players at 27, so there is some risk. Hopefully he can deliver and score a number of good results throughout 2015, if he finds his inner motivation.

* Serral (1275 pts) - I was mightily impressed with this young Finn the last couple of months, especially in WCS lately. In my eyes he could be the next great foreigner, and 2015 might be his breakout year in the international SC2 scene. He's only 16 years old but still playing so well, he is indeed a young but fearless Zerg to watch out for in 2015.

* Pigbaby (575 pts) - For the last spot I had to find someone for under 800 points who I felt had a decent chance to deliver right away in 2015. It was between Pigbaby and jjakji. Pigbaby won 1 season of WCS America last year over Bomber 4-3 so he has proven he can win tournaments. He cost almost 200 more points than the aligulac median gave him, but I felt it was well worth to give him a shot even though he had to return to Korea. Maybe it will take him some time, but I think Pigbaby has the potential to be a Code S player in Korea, if everything goes right for him. At 22, he's a good mix of experience and talent.

Welcome! I just want to let you know that there will be a reset at the end of each season. So plan for just season 1 for now, you can reset your team to start fresh back at 8000 points if you want. Also you don't necessarily need to fill all 5 slots.
(I should probably put some of this info on the website lol)
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-07 09:21:38
March 07 2015 04:54 GMT
#232
I finally added a WCS Wars feature I've been wanting to add for a while. A graph to see your team's value over time (or someone else's team)!

Here is an example picture using sharkie's team, shrunken down to fit on TL. (My graph is too embarassing to show T_T)
[image loading]
Click here to check out sharkie's full graph

Or go to your own by going to WCS Wars and clicking on Team Stats, or you can click any of the usernames in the Leaderboard

You can mouse over the points on the graph to see more detail. The Red markers are sales, and the green markers are purchases, mouse over on them and it'll tell you what player was bought/sold and for how much. Click and drag to zoom in, often you will have to zoom in really far to see multiple trades done within minutes of each other.

I also added the Trade History list, for a text list of the trades made. This is right below the team value graph.

edit: And I also just added labels for key points of change on the graphs. Example http://sc2.4ever.tv/?p=p&pid=111#player-chances-history-section
It's tough to balance between readability for the labels and the graph behind without cluttering, let me know what you guys think.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
March 08 2015 22:19 GMT
#233
I added WCS Wars Value history to the WCS Points graphs for all players, and if you look at a user's team like sharkie's then you can see in the WCS Points Histories section that it defaults to show the WCS Wars Value for the first 3 players (more than 3 gets too crowded to be shown by default).

Also I have begun adding options for your user profiles, so you can set your usernames for TL, Reddit, Twitch, and Twitter. Open the dropdown for "More" at the top right of the page and click on Profile, or just click here.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
March 08 2015 22:22 GMT
#234
Thanks for keep using me as an example haha ^^
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
March 08 2015 22:24 GMT
#235
On March 09 2015 07:22 sharkie wrote:
Thanks for keep using me as an example haha ^^

You're the highest placing user that actually trades lol, I'm cheering for you!
I think my downfall is that I trade too much lol.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
March 09 2015 00:45 GMT
#236
--------UPDATE Monday, Mar 09 12:45am GMT (GMT+00:00) GSL Code S Semifinals Preview! (Sim #1264)
Top 50 players by Blizzcon Chances.
  1. kr Life (KT), is at 99.99%, Min WCS Points: 2700, Median WCS Points: 6525
  2. kr Maru (Jin Air), is at 99.75%, Min WCS Points: 2200, Median WCS Points: 5750
  3. kr herO (CJ Entus), is at 99.69%, Min WCS Points: 2575, Median WCS Points: 5225
  4. kr PartinG (Yoe), is at 89.88%, Min WCS Points: 1675, Median WCS Points: 4175
  5. kr Dream (SKT T1), is at 83.04%, Min WCS Points: 1700, Median WCS Points: 3575
  6. kr INnoVation (SKT T1), is at 70.53%, Min WCS Points: 1250, Median WCS Points: 3350
  7. kr ForGG (Millenium), is at 68.74%, Min WCS Points: 625, Median WCS Points: 3450
  8. kr Hydra (ROOT), is at 66.44%, Min WCS Points: 625, Median WCS Points: 3325
  9. kr Rain (mYinsanity), is at 63.11%, Min WCS Points: 1100, Median WCS Points: 3100
  10. kr Rogue (Jin Air), is at 59.94%, Min WCS Points: 1350, Median WCS Points: 2950
  11. kr MMA (Acer), is at 46.63%, Min WCS Points: 1050, Median WCS Points: 2600
  12. kr Stats (KT), is at 42.77%, Min WCS Points: 1025, Median WCS Points: 2525
  13. kr Solar (Samsung), is at 42.57%, Min WCS Points: 750, Median WCS Points: 2500
  14. no Snute (Liquid), is at 42.45%, Min WCS Points: 500, Median WCS Points: 2450
  15. kr TY (KT), is at 40.97%, Min WCS Points: 1175, Median WCS Points: 2475
  16. kr Dark (SKT T1), is at 37.81%, Min WCS Points: 1000, Median WCS Points: 2375
  17. kr Dear (Samsung), is at 35.87%, Min WCS Points: 800, Median WCS Points: 2300
  18. kr Trap (Jin Air), is at 35.34%, Min WCS Points: 300, Median WCS Points: 2200
  19. kr Polt (CM Storm), is at 33.85%, Min WCS Points: 500, Median WCS Points: 2225
  20. kr Bbyong (CJ Entus), is at 26.67%, Min WCS Points: 550, Median WCS Points: 2000
  21. kr Soulkey (TCM), is at 25.5%, Min WCS Points: 1075, Median WCS Points: 2100
  22. kr GuMiho (Invasion), is at 22.89%, Min WCS Points: 750, Median WCS Points: 1925
  23. dk Bunny (Liquid), is at 22.73%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 1800
  24. kr Super (Invasion), is at 22.33%, Min WCS Points: 925, Median WCS Points: 2000
  25. kr sOs (Jin Air), is at 22.02%, Min WCS Points: 800, Median WCS Points: 1925
  26. kr TaeJa (Liquid), is at 21.99%, Min WCS Points: 150, Median WCS Points: 1750
  27. kr FanTaSy (dPix), is at 17.08%, Min WCS Points: 750, Median WCS Points: 1800
  28. kr Terminator (Jin Air), is at 15.7%, Min WCS Points: 975, Median WCS Points: 1850
  29. kr Cure (Jin Air), is at 14.54%, Min WCS Points: 300, Median WCS Points: 1550
  30. kr Bomber, is at 14.39%, Min WCS Points: 525, Median WCS Points: 1600
  31. pl MaNa (Liquid), is at 12.34%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 1450
  32. au PiG (x5), is at 11.1%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 1425
  33. se NaNiwa, is at 11.07%, Min WCS Points: 200, Median WCS Points: 1325
  34. kr Flash (KT), is at 10.81%, Min WCS Points: 50, Median WCS Points: 1325
  35. de ShoWTimE (aTn), is at 10.75%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 1425
  36. kr Zest (KT), is at 8.38%, Min WCS Points: 375, Median WCS Points: 1375
  37. mx MajOr, is at 8.2%, Min WCS Points: 150, Median WCS Points: 1250
  38. kr YoDa (Prime), is at 7.93%, Min WCS Points: 350, Median WCS Points: 1300
  39. ru Happy, is at 7.9%, Min WCS Points: 200, Median WCS Points: 1200
  40. fi Serral (mYinsanity), is at 6.13%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 1275
  41. kr HyuN (ROCCAT), is at 6.01%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 1100
  42. kr soO (SKT T1), is at 5.52%, Min WCS Points: 50, Median WCS Points: 1000
  43. no TargA (Imaginary), is at 5.35%, Min WCS Points: 150, Median WCS Points: 1075
  44. kr First (KT), is at 5.27%, Min WCS Points: 325, Median WCS Points: 1175
  45. kr Leenock (Yoe), is at 5.02%, Min WCS Points: 600, Median WCS Points: 1275
  46. kr viOLet (EnVy), is at 4.84%, Min WCS Points: 200, Median WCS Points: 1100
  47. kr Sacsri (mYinsanity), is at 4.72%, Min WCS Points: 50, Median WCS Points: 950
  48. kr MarineKing (MVP), is at 4.36%, Min WCS Points: 700, Median WCS Points: 1350
  49. ca Kane (mYinsanity), is at 4.25%, Min WCS Points: 250, Median WCS Points: 1200
  50. kr Patience (dPix), is at 3.57%, Min WCS Points: 300, Median WCS Points: 1100
Full Player List

Biggest Winners and Losers since before GSL Quarterfinals and GSL S2 Qualifiers (Sim ID #1256 vs Sim ID #1264)
Biggest Winners
kr Dream went up by 16.07%, going from 66.97% to 83.04%
kr Trap went up by 14.27%, going from 21.06% to 35.34%
kr MMA went up by 12.31%, going from 34.32% to 46.63%
kr PartinG went up by 11.03%, going from 78.84% to 89.88%
kr Bbyong went up by 10.5%, going from 16.17% to 26.67%
kr sOs went up by 6.65%, going from 15.37% to 22.02%
kr Flash went up by 4.75%, going from 6.06% to 10.81%
+ Show Spoiler [More Winners] +

no Snute went up by 3.34%, going from 39.11% to 42.45%
pl MaNa went up by 3.29%, going from 9.04% to 12.34%
kr Cure went up by 3.15%, going from 11.38% to 14.54%
kr Soulkey went up by 2.83%, going from 22.67% to 25.5%
kr Sacsri went up by 2.8%, going from 1.92% to 4.72%
kr soO went up by 1.95%, going from 3.56% to 5.52%
se NaNiwa went up by 1.64%, going from 9.43% to 11.07%
kr DongRaeGu went up by 1.41%, going from 1.09% to 2.5%
kr ByuL went up by 1.38%, going from 1.38% to 2.77%
fi Serral went up by 1.31%, going from 4.82% to 6.13%
kr Maru went up by 1.27%, going from 98.48% to 99.75%
kr Trust went up by 1.25%, going from 0.84% to 2.08%
kr MyuNgSiK went up by 1.13%, going from 1.04% to 2.17%
kr Patience went up by 1.04%, going from 2.53% to 3.57%
au PiG went up by 0.98%, going from 10.12% to 11.1%
kr Impact went up by 0.97%, going from 0.27% to 1.24%
kr herO went up by 0.95%, going from 98.74% to 99.69%
kr Creator went up by 0.83%, going from 0.42% to 1.25%
kr Rain went up by 0.8%, going from 62.31% to 63.11%
kr Symbol went up by 0.68%, going from 0.58% to 1.26%
dk Bunny went up by 0.68%, going from 22.05% to 22.73%
kr SuperNova went up by 0.62%, going from 0.32% to 0.94%
kr HerO went up by 0.54%, going from 0.44% to 0.98%
kr RagnaroK went up by 0.45%, going from 0.21% to 0.66%
de ShoWTimE went up by 0.35%, going from 10.41% to 10.75%
kr Ryung went up by 0.34%, going from 0.08% to 0.43%
kr Pigbaby went up by 0.33%, going from 0.19% to 0.52%
kr YoDa went up by 0.25%, going from 7.68% to 7.93%
kr FanTaSy went up by 0.25%, going from 16.83% to 17.08%
kr Sorry went up by 0.23%, going from 0.14% to 0.37%
de GunGFuBanDa went up by 0.21%, going from 0.15% to 0.36%
tw Has went up by 0.2%, going from 1.97% to 2.16%
kr Shine went up by 0.19%, going from 0.07% to 0.26%
ca MaSa went up by 0.16%, going from 0.47% to 0.64%
kr Billowy went up by 0.14%, going from 0.02% to 0.16%
fr PtitDrogo went up by 0.13%, going from 0.09% to 0.22%
kr Dear went up by 0.13%, going from 35.74% to 35.87%
kr BrAvO went up by 0.12%, going from 0.02% to 0.14%


Biggest Losers
kr Stats went down by 26.95%, going from 69.72% to 42.77%
kr TY went down by 15.34%, going from 56.3% to 40.97%
kr Solar went down by 12.46%, going from 55.03% to 42.57%
kr Zest went down by 10.06%, going from 18.44% to 8.38%
kr INnoVation went down by 7.9%, going from 78.42% to 70.53%
kr HyuN went down by 6.7%, going from 12.71% to 6.01%
kr Rogue went down by 6.52%, going from 66.46% to 59.94%
+ Show Spoiler [More Losers] +

kr Leenock went down by 3.24%, going from 8.26% to 5.02%
kr Classic went down by 2.48%, going from 4.16% to 1.68%
kr ForGG went down by 2.29%, going from 71.03% to 68.74%
mx MajOr went down by 2.02%, going from 10.22% to 8.2%
kr Hydra went down by 1.49%, going from 67.93% to 66.44%
kr TaeJa went down by 1.48%, going from 23.47% to 21.99%
kr GuMiho went down by 1.39%, going from 24.28% to 22.89%
kr jjakji went down by 1.11%, going from 1.73% to 0.61%
kr Jaedong went down by 1.07%, going from 2.98% to 1.91%
kr viOLet went down by 1.02%, going from 5.86% to 4.84%
kr TRUE went down by 0.94%, going from 3.23% to 2.29%
kr Sora went down by 0.9%, going from 1.41% to 0.51%
kr San went down by 0.8%, going from 4.28% to 3.48%
kr Hurricane went down by 0.79%, going from 1.78% to 0.99%
ca Kane went down by 0.6%, going from 4.85% to 4.25%
kr Losira went down by 0.6%, going from 0.92% to 0.32%
no TargA went down by 0.53%, going from 5.88% to 5.35%
kr Super went down by 0.49%, going from 22.82% to 22.33%
kr MarineKing went down by 0.43%, going from 4.79% to 4.36%
kr Bomber went down by 0.41%, going from 14.81% to 14.39%
kr sKyHigh went down by 0.38%, going from 0.96% to 0.58%
kr Terminator went down by 0.32%, going from 16.02% to 15.7%
kr Center went down by 0.29%, going from 0.67% to 0.38%
kr Hack went down by 0.28%, going from 1.36% to 1.07%
kr Armani went down by 0.28%, going from 0.83% to 0.55%
kr Reality went down by 0.27%, going from 0.33% to 0.06%
kr Journey went down by 0.26%, going from 0.45% to 0.19%
kr First went down by 0.25%, going from 5.52% to 5.27%
kr Dark went down by 0.22%, going from 38.03% to 37.81%
kr Pet went down by 0.2%, going from 0.46% to 0.26%
kr Polt went down by 0.18%, going from 34.03% to 33.85%
kr eMotion went down by 0.17%, going from 0.29% to 0.13%
kr YongHwa went down by 0.16%, going from 1.35% to 1.19%
kr Arthur went down by 0.15%, going from 0.35% to 0.21%
pl Nerchio went down by 0.14%, going from 1.06% to 0.92%
kr Curious went down by 0.14%, going from 1.73% to 1.59%
kr Revival went down by 0.13%, going from 0.29% to 0.16%
ca HuK went down by 0.1%, going from 1.79% to 1.69%
kr Ruin went down by 0.1%, going from 0.27% to 0.17%


Foreigner Hope
Chances of 1+ foreigners 91.23%
Chances of 2+ foreigners 57.03%
Chances of 3+ foreigners 19.26%
Chances of 4+ foreigners 3.24%

no Snute 10.9% chance to be the only foreigner, 42.45% chance overall.
dk Bunny 4.58% chance to be the only foreigner, 22.73% chance overall.
pl MaNa 2.22% chance to be the only foreigner, 12.34% chance overall.
se NaNiwa 2.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 11.07% chance overall.
au PiG 2.03% chance to be the only foreigner, 11.1% chance overall.
de ShoWTimE 1.96% chance to be the only foreigner, 10.75% chance overall.
mx MajOr 1.48% chance to be the only foreigner, 8.2% chance overall.
+ Show Spoiler [More Foreigner Hopes] +

ru Happy 1.41% chance to be the only foreigner, 7.9% chance overall.
fi Serral 1.04% chance to be the only foreigner, 6.13% chance overall.
no TargA 0.95% chance to be the only foreigner, 5.35% chance overall.
ca Kane 0.72% chance to be the only foreigner, 4.25% chance overall.
fi Welmu 0.58% chance to be the only foreigner, 3.45% chance overall.
tw Sen 0.38% chance to be the only foreigner, 2.17% chance overall.
tw Has 0.37% chance to be the only foreigner, 2.16% chance overall.
cn Jim 0.35% chance to be the only foreigner, 2.01% chance overall.
de TLO 0.33% chance to be the only foreigner, 2.01% chance overall.
fr Lilbow 0.3% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.8% chance overall.
ca HuK 0.29% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.69% chance overall.
es VortiX 0.29% chance to be the only foreigner, 1.8% chance overall.
se MorroW 0.17% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.97% chance overall.
pl Nerchio 0.15% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.92% chance overall.
cn MacSed 0.14% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.79% chance overall.
cn XiGua 0.12% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.76% chance overall.
nl uThermal 0.12% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.7% chance overall.
au iaguz 0.12% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.7% chance overall.
de HeRoMaRinE 0.11% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.69% chance overall.
fr MarineLorD 0.11% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.65% chance overall.
ca MaSa 0.1% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.64% chance overall.
us puCK 0.08% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.44% chance overall.
de GunGFuBanDa 0.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.36% chance overall.
uk Boombox 0.06% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.33% chance overall.
ca Scarlett 0.03% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.32% chance overall.
fr FireCake 0.02% chance to be the only foreigner, 0.29% chance overall.


Headbands
kr Life is the current #1 Headband holder with 1 defenses!
kr PartinG is the current #2 Headband holder with 0 defenses!
kr herO is the current #3 Headband holder with 1 defenses!
kr sOs is the current #4 Headband holder with 0 defenses!
+ Show Spoiler [Defense History] +

kr herO defended the #3 from kr Rogue at GSL Code S Season 1
kr PartinG won the #2 from kr Solar at GSL Code S Season 1
kr herO won the #3 from kr Maru at GSL Code S Season 1
kr Maru won the #3 from kr PartinG at GSL Code S Season 1
kr Solar defended the #2 from kr Rogue at GSL Code S Season 1
kr Solar won the #2 from kr Dream at GSL Code S Season 1
kr Dream won the #2 from kr Dark at StarLeague Season 1
kr Dark defended the #2 from kr TY at StarLeague Season 1
kr Life defended the #1 from kr PartinG at IEM Taipei
kr PartinG defended the #3 from kr Classic at IEM Taipei
kr PartinG won the #3 from kr Maru at IEM Taipei
kr Maru won the #3 from kr TRUE at IEM Taipei
kr Dark defended the #2 from kr Dear at GSL Code S Season 1
kr Dark won the #2 from kr MMA at GSL Code S Season 1
kr TRUE won the #3 from kr Leenock at IEM Taipei Stage 1
kr Leenock defended the #3 from kr jjakji at IEM Taipei Stage 1
kr Leenock defended the #3 from kr Sacsri at IEM Taipei Stage 1
kr Leenock won the #3 from kr Terminator at StarLeague Season 1
kr Terminator defended the #3 from kr FanTaSy at StarLeague Season 1
kr Terminator won the #3 from kr TaeJa at StarLeague Season 1
kr sOs won the #4 from kr MarineKing at Hot6ix Cup
kr MarineKing won the #4 from kr Zest at Hot6ix Cup
kr Zest won the #4 from kr Soulkey at Hot6ix Cup
kr Soulkey won the #4 from kr Flash at Hot6ix Cup
kr Flash won the #4 from kr Classic at Hot6ix Cup
kr Life won the #1 from kr MMA at WCS Global Finals 2014
kr MMA won the #2 from kr Classic at WCS Global Finals 2014
kr Classic won the #4 from kr herO at WCS Global Finals 2014
kr TaeJa won the #3 from kr INnoVation at WCS Global Finals 2014


WCS Point Cutoffs
1.07% of the time 2325 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
10.36% of the time 2500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
28.52% of the time 2625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
48.75% of the time 2725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
68.6% of the time 2825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
91.08% of the time 3000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
98.87% of the time 3200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

GSL Code S Season 1 Winning Chances
kr PartinG has a 35.3% chance to win
----going from 89.88% to 99.61% if they get 1st, or 89.95% if they get 2nd.
kr herO has a 26.58% chance to win
----going from 99.69% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.95% if they get 2nd.
kr Life has a 25.29% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they get 2nd.
kr MMA has a 12.83% chance to win
----going from 46.63% to 83.86% if they get 1st, or 51.56% if they get 2nd.

kr MMA vs kr PartinG in
in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals.
kr MMA is at 46.63% Blizzcon Chances.
35.24% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 63.32%.
64.76% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 37.56%.
kr PartinG is at 89.88% Blizzcon Chances.
64.76% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 95.22%.
35.24% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 80.06%.

kr Life vs kr herO in
in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals.
kr Life is at 99.99% Blizzcon Chances.
45.76% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
54.24% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.97%.
kr herO is at 99.69% Blizzcon Chances.
54.24% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.98%.
45.76% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.35%.

Path From the Round of 16
+ Show Spoiler [Path From the Round of 16] +

Parting vs MMA Blizzcon Chances
[image loading]
-------------------------------
Parting vs MMA WCS Wars Value
[image loading]

-------------------------------
Life vs herO Blizzcon Chances
[image loading]
-------------------------------
Life vs herO WCS Wars Values
[image loading]



Check out the fantasy league WCS Wars!
-----------------------
"Expert" mods4ever.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
March 09 2015 19:12 GMT
#237
On March 09 2015 07:24 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2015 07:22 sharkie wrote:
Thanks for keep using me as an example haha ^^

You're the highest placing user that actually trades lol, I'm cheering for you!
I think my downfall is that I trade too much lol.


Thanks but I am so scared for this IEM now lol.
All the matches are so ... well they could all go either way and no one would be surprised... I am almost inclined to just not trade and ignore IEM (but its so many points...)
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
March 09 2015 19:49 GMT
#238
On March 10 2015 04:12 sharkie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2015 07:24 Die4Ever wrote:
On March 09 2015 07:22 sharkie wrote:
Thanks for keep using me as an example haha ^^

You're the highest placing user that actually trades lol, I'm cheering for you!
I think my downfall is that I trade too much lol.


Thanks but I am so scared for this IEM now lol.
All the matches are so ... well they could all go either way and no one would be surprised... I am almost inclined to just not trade and ignore IEM (but its so many points...)

Yea I have no idea on IEM lol. After Parting vs MMA I'm probably gonna sell Parting, but idk who I would buy. And I do want at least 1 WCS player before that starts the ro16 again (25 days still left??? lol).

------
(Some technical stuff below, basically: Next season players should gain more points when winning, and lose less points when losing. WCS Wars Season 2 should be starting on April 6th)

I've been really thinking about changing the player valuing system for next season. Right now it's
value = median_points - (min_points / 2) + base_cost
With the base_cost being 200.

But this means that they go down a lot after losing and don't gain much after winning. I don't think it's very encouraging and really relies on correctly predicting underdogs to win instead of favorites or correctly predicting a player to win multiple matches in a row. Also as we get farther in the year, the min_points will grow more quickly than median_points because there will be less remaining tournaments to win points in. This is proven by the fact that right now median points are >= minimum points (usually much greater), and when the year is over and no matches remain, the minimum points will be the same as the median points.

For next season I think I'm gonna go with simply
value = median_points + base_cost
With base_cost being 1000. The increase in base_cost means that the escalation of points is slowed down (Life will only be worth ~8x as much as the lowest players, instead of ~30x as much), slowing down the escalation of points is why I subtracted half the min_points to begin with.

To go with the general increase of cost for all players, I'm thinking the starting points to buy players for Season 2 will probably be around 12,000 to 15,000, instead of the current 8,000.

If there's nothing else going on when the Season 1 WCS Finals are done (April 5th), then before that will be the last time to make any trades for Season 1 starting with the regular trade lock during matches. I will begin Season 2 and reset everyone's teams the day after. When we get closer to the date I'll be posting exact times and countdowns.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17676 Posts
March 11 2015 02:16 GMT
#239
WCS Predictor 2015
GSL Code S Season 1 Semifinals Day 1

kr MMA vs kr PartinG in
in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals.
kr PartinG has the #2 Headband!
kr MMA is at 46.66% Blizzcon Chances.
35.2% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 63.37%.
64.8% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 37.59%.
kr PartinG is at 89.86% Blizzcon Chances.
64.8% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 95.18%.
35.2% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 80.05%.

GSL Code S Season 1 Winning Chances
kr PartinG has a 34.99% chance to win
----going from 89.86% to 99.62% if they get 1st, or 89.98% if they get 2nd.
kr herO has a 26.5% chance to win
----going from 99.69% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.95% if they get 2nd.
kr Life has a 25.71% chance to win
----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they get 2nd.
kr MMA has a 12.8% chance to win
----going from 46.66% to 84.02% if they get 1st, or 51.57% if they get 2nd.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18401 Posts
March 11 2015 08:58 GMT
#240
MMA vs Parting is way too open for me to choose one of them!
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