WCS Predictor 2015 - Page 12
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OtherWorld
France17333 Posts
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sharkie
Austria18401 Posts
![]() Before the update! | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
On March 05 2015 22:58 sharkie wrote: ![]() Before the update! #1 lllllllllll Kappa's team is worth 12,827 WCS Points with Life (5375), NaNiwa (1375), Suppy (675), puCK (825), Hydra (3188), and 1389 unspent points. #2 sharkie's team is worth 11,946 WCS Points with ForGG (3363), Dream (2800), Snute (2350), Hydra (3188), and 245 unspent points. much closer now, and the aligulac rating will update in like 4 to 6 hours so that'll help you more, right now he's really unfavored against Maru in the finals though lol ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() in StarLeague Season 1 finals. ![]() ![]() 26.61% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.26%. 73.39% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 73.93%. ![]() ![]() 73.39% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%. 26.61% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.02%. | ||
sharkie
Austria18401 Posts
Dream's didnt increase indeed | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On March 05 2015 23:20 sharkie wrote: wow Life's rating fell down like crazy Dream's didnt increase indeed Ugh. I should have sold Life. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 1 Quarterfinals Day 2 ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() in GSL Code S Season 1 quarterfinals. ![]() ![]() 52.66% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%. 47.34% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.8%. ![]() ![]() 47.34% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 87.16%. 52.66% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 70.83%. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() in GSL Code S Season 1 quarterfinals. ![]() ![]() 37.38% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 78.69%. 62.62% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 59.72%. ![]() ![]() 62.62% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.66%. 37.38% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.23%. + Show Spoiler [Other Match] + ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals. ![]() ![]() 64.66% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 95.09%. 35.34% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 79.59%. ![]() ![]() 35.34% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 63.91%. 64.66% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 37.31%. GSL Code S Season 1 ![]() ![]() ----going from 89.61% to 99.56% if they get 1st, or 89.57% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 98.75% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.95% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 99.9% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 46.71% to 83.41% if they get 1st, or 51.12% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 78.56% to 99.28% if they get 1st, or 88.75% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 66.81% to 99.24% if they get 1st, or 83.99% if they get 2nd. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + of course....I buy Life and he loses, I sell Life and he wins T_T at least herO won for me | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On March 06 2015 20:12 Die4Ever wrote: + Show Spoiler + of course....I buy Life and he loses, I sell Life and he wins T_T at least herO won for me + Show Spoiler + I ended up deciding to not sell Life ![]() | ||
qqMagnuz
44 Posts
My team now consists of (from most expensive to cheapest): * Snute (2350 pts) - Can he take the final step and break through as a top 16 player around the World and make it to Blizzcon? He's usually a pretty consistent performer and racks up a lot of points throughout the year in different tournaments. Maybe he can also win a WCS Season this year. The sky is the limit, but it depends how much he improved from 2014. * Taeja (1750 pts) - Weak start to 2015 after dominating much of 2014, especially during the summer. He definitely has the talent to be one of the top players in the World, the only question which remains is if he has the motivation and adaptability now that LotV will come out soon. A true star which needs to return to form. * Bomber (1600 pts) - Same story with Bomber as with Taeja, weak start in 2015 but again the sky is the limit in terms of personal skill. Also needs to adapt to LotV since he is once of the older SC2 players at 27, so there is some risk. Hopefully he can deliver and score a number of good results throughout 2015, if he finds his inner motivation. * Serral (1275 pts) - I was mightily impressed with this young Finn the last couple of months, especially in WCS lately. In my eyes he could be the next great foreigner, and 2015 might be his breakout year in the international SC2 scene. He's only 16 years old but still playing so well, he is indeed a young but fearless Zerg to watch out for in 2015. * Pigbaby (575 pts) - For the last spot I had to find someone for under 800 points who I felt had a decent chance to deliver right away in 2015. It was between Pigbaby and jjakji. Pigbaby won 1 season of WCS America last year over Bomber 4-3 so he has proven he can win tournaments. He cost almost 200 more points than the aligulac median gave him, but I felt it was well worth to give him a shot even though he had to return to Korea. Maybe it will take him some time, but I think Pigbaby has the potential to be a Code S player in Korea, if everything goes right for him. At 22, he's a good mix of experience and talent. | ||
Dingodile
4133 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
On March 07 2015 00:58 qqMagnuz wrote: Just saw this site and realized it had a fantasy 5 man team, so I immediately had to sign up for that! My team now consists of (from most expensive to cheapest): * Snute (2350 pts) - Can he take the final step and break through as a top 16 player around the World and make it to Blizzcon? He's usually a pretty consistent performer and racks up a lot of points throughout the year in different tournaments. Maybe he can also win a WCS Season this year. The sky is the limit, but it depends how much he improved from 2014. * Taeja (1750 pts) - Weak start to 2015 after dominating much of 2014, especially during the summer. He definitely has the talent to be one of the top players in the World, the only question which remains is if he has the motivation and adaptability now that LotV will come out soon. A true star which needs to return to form. * Bomber (1600 pts) - Same story with Bomber as with Taeja, weak start in 2015 but again the sky is the limit in terms of personal skill. Also needs to adapt to LotV since he is once of the older SC2 players at 27, so there is some risk. Hopefully he can deliver and score a number of good results throughout 2015, if he finds his inner motivation. * Serral (1275 pts) - I was mightily impressed with this young Finn the last couple of months, especially in WCS lately. In my eyes he could be the next great foreigner, and 2015 might be his breakout year in the international SC2 scene. He's only 16 years old but still playing so well, he is indeed a young but fearless Zerg to watch out for in 2015. * Pigbaby (575 pts) - For the last spot I had to find someone for under 800 points who I felt had a decent chance to deliver right away in 2015. It was between Pigbaby and jjakji. Pigbaby won 1 season of WCS America last year over Bomber 4-3 so he has proven he can win tournaments. He cost almost 200 more points than the aligulac median gave him, but I felt it was well worth to give him a shot even though he had to return to Korea. Maybe it will take him some time, but I think Pigbaby has the potential to be a Code S player in Korea, if everything goes right for him. At 22, he's a good mix of experience and talent. Welcome! I just want to let you know that there will be a reset at the end of each season. So plan for just season 1 for now, you can reset your team to start fresh back at 8000 points if you want. Also you don't necessarily need to fill all 5 slots. (I should probably put some of this info on the website lol) | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
Here is an example picture using sharkie's team, shrunken down to fit on TL. (My graph is too embarassing to show T_T) ![]() Click here to check out sharkie's full graph Or go to your own by going to WCS Wars and clicking on Team Stats, or you can click any of the usernames in the Leaderboard You can mouse over the points on the graph to see more detail. The Red markers are sales, and the green markers are purchases, mouse over on them and it'll tell you what player was bought/sold and for how much. Click and drag to zoom in, often you will have to zoom in really far to see multiple trades done within minutes of each other. I also added the Trade History list, for a text list of the trades made. This is right below the team value graph. edit: And I also just added labels for key points of change on the graphs. Example http://sc2.4ever.tv/?p=p&pid=111#player-chances-history-section It's tough to balance between readability for the labels and the graph behind without cluttering, let me know what you guys think. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
Also I have begun adding options for your user profiles, so you can set your usernames for TL, Reddit, Twitch, and Twitter. Open the dropdown for "More" at the top right of the page and click on Profile, or just click here. | ||
sharkie
Austria18401 Posts
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Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
On March 09 2015 07:22 sharkie wrote: Thanks for keep using me as an example haha ^^ You're the highest placing user that actually trades lol, I'm cheering for you! I think my downfall is that I trade too much lol. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
Top 50 players by Blizzcon Chances.
Biggest Winners and Losers since before GSL Quarterfinals and GSL S2 Qualifiers (Sim ID #1256 vs Sim ID #1264) Biggest Winners ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() + Show Spoiler [More Winners] + ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Biggest Losers ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() + Show Spoiler [More Losers] + ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Foreigner Hope Chances of 1+ foreigners 91.23% Chances of 2+ foreigners 57.03% Chances of 3+ foreigners 19.26% Chances of 4+ foreigners 3.24% ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() + Show Spoiler [More Foreigner Hopes] + ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Headbands ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() + Show Spoiler [Defense History] + ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() WCS Point Cutoffs 1.07% of the time 2325 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 10.36% of the time 2500 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 28.52% of the time 2625 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 48.75% of the time 2725 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 68.6% of the time 2825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 91.08% of the time 3000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon 98.87% of the time 3200 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon GSL Code S Season 1 Winning Chances ![]() ![]() ----going from 89.88% to 99.61% if they get 1st, or 89.95% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 99.69% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.95% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 46.63% to 83.86% if they get 1st, or 51.56% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals. ![]() ![]() 35.24% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 63.32%. 64.76% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 37.56%. ![]() ![]() 64.76% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 95.22%. 35.24% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 80.06%. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals. ![]() ![]() 45.76% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%. 54.24% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.97%. ![]() ![]() 54.24% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.98%. 45.76% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.35%. Path From the Round of 16 + Show Spoiler [Path From the Round of 16] + Parting vs MMA Blizzcon Chances ![]() ------------------------------- Parting vs MMA WCS Wars Value ![]() ------------------------------- Life vs herO Blizzcon Chances ![]() ------------------------------- Life vs herO WCS Wars Values ![]() Check out the fantasy league WCS Wars! ----------------------- | ||
sharkie
Austria18401 Posts
On March 09 2015 07:24 Die4Ever wrote: You're the highest placing user that actually trades lol, I'm cheering for you! I think my downfall is that I trade too much lol. Thanks but I am so scared for this IEM now lol. All the matches are so ... well they could all go either way and no one would be surprised... I am almost inclined to just not trade and ignore IEM (but its so many points...) | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
On March 10 2015 04:12 sharkie wrote: Thanks but I am so scared for this IEM now lol. All the matches are so ... well they could all go either way and no one would be surprised... I am almost inclined to just not trade and ignore IEM (but its so many points...) Yea I have no idea on IEM lol. After Parting vs MMA I'm probably gonna sell Parting, but idk who I would buy. And I do want at least 1 WCS player before that starts the ro16 again (25 days still left??? lol). ------ (Some technical stuff below, basically: Next season players should gain more points when winning, and lose less points when losing. WCS Wars Season 2 should be starting on April 6th) I've been really thinking about changing the player valuing system for next season. Right now it's value = median_points - (min_points / 2) + base_cost With the base_cost being 200. But this means that they go down a lot after losing and don't gain much after winning. I don't think it's very encouraging and really relies on correctly predicting underdogs to win instead of favorites or correctly predicting a player to win multiple matches in a row. Also as we get farther in the year, the min_points will grow more quickly than median_points because there will be less remaining tournaments to win points in. This is proven by the fact that right now median points are >= minimum points (usually much greater), and when the year is over and no matches remain, the minimum points will be the same as the median points. For next season I think I'm gonna go with simply value = median_points + base_cost With base_cost being 1000. The increase in base_cost means that the escalation of points is slowed down (Life will only be worth ~8x as much as the lowest players, instead of ~30x as much), slowing down the escalation of points is why I subtracted half the min_points to begin with. To go with the general increase of cost for all players, I'm thinking the starting points to buy players for Season 2 will probably be around 12,000 to 15,000, instead of the current 8,000. If there's nothing else going on when the Season 1 WCS Finals are done (April 5th), then before that will be the last time to make any trades for Season 1 starting with the regular trade lock during matches. I will begin Season 2 and reset everyone's teams the day after. When we get closer to the date I'll be posting exact times and countdowns. | ||
Die4Ever
United States17676 Posts
WCS Predictor 2015 GSL Code S Season 1 Semifinals Day 1 ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() in GSL Code S Season 1 semifinals. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() 35.2% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 63.37%. 64.8% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 37.59%. ![]() ![]() 64.8% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 95.18%. 35.2% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 80.05%. GSL Code S Season 1 Winning Chances ![]() ![]() ----going from 89.86% to 99.62% if they get 1st, or 89.98% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 99.69% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.95% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 99.99% to 100% if they get 1st, or 99.99% if they get 2nd. ![]() ![]() ----going from 46.66% to 84.02% if they get 1st, or 51.57% if they get 2nd. | ||
sharkie
Austria18401 Posts
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