On September 13 2013 07:42 Osiccor wrote: Instead of talking about the improbable, what are naniwa's chance that he will make it to the world final at Blizzcon which I believe is far from a sure thing.
This misses the fact that top 5 automatically get a minimum of 500 points from the season finals, up to 3000 more points for winning them. So it's more like:
On September 13 2013 06:43 Bumblebee wrote: "Chance of qualifying for World Finals: The same chance that the Papa John's showmatch between EG vs. TeamLiquid will actually happen this year."
So I guess it's very very likely, not to say 100 % that TLO will qualify for BlizzCon?
On September 13 2013 07:42 Osiccor wrote: Instead of talking about the improbable, what are naniwa's chance that he will make it to the world final at Blizzcon which I believe is far from a sure thing.
He has to make a top 2 at IEM NY. Basically.
No; he'll only get knocked out if 5 people from the bottom 16 manage to jump up into the top 16, right?
So really, Naniwa's chances of making the global finals is the same as the chance that no more than 4 people in the bottom 16 are able to jump into the top 16. Another way to look at it is if all the big WCS point grabs are taken by people already in the top 16 (or those already ahead of Naniwa), then he should be pretty safe. In other words, cheer for Revival and above
EDIT: Actually, I think the only legitimate contenders in the bottom 16 for qualifying for the Global Finals are those still in WCS. That means: ForGG, Scarlett, HyuN, KangHo, MMA, and Welmu. That's 6 players. Also, First and TLO, while knocked out of WCS, are still close enough to Naniwa that they could overtake him if they place really highly (like 1st, or two 2nd place finishes) in Bucharest and NYC. But if we just take the players still in WCS, that's 6 players that need to do well in WCS. I think odds are that fewer than 5 of them will end up making deep runs.
On September 13 2013 06:41 larse wrote: So Flash is out of WCS Global Finals by all means?
Definitely
EDIT: I spoke too soon, but he have to place highly in both Code S and Season 3 Finals.
If he finishes top 4 at IEM and Dreamhack, top 4 in WCS KR and gets bumped out in the beginning of the season finals he will have 2750, which could be enough. So if he gets 3 top 4 finishes he is likely to get into blizzcon.
If he gets #1 at IEM and dreamhack he only has to get to the RO8 in WCS KR (as that would give him 2900 points)
On September 13 2013 07:42 Osiccor wrote: Instead of talking about the improbable, what are naniwa's chance that he will make it to the world final at Blizzcon which I believe is far from a sure thing.
He has to make a top 2 at IEM NY. Basically.
No; he'll only get knocked out if 5 people from the bottom 16 manage to jump up into the top 16, right?
Not really.
Right now there are only 400 points between 12th and 16th place. Everyone below NaNiwa in the top 16 is still in contention for WCS points, and all of them are strong contenders to pull in at least another 1,000 points each this season based on their results in season 2.
So unless he shores up his position with a result in IEM, he could very easily be knocked out by just one deep run from a player currently out of the 16.
On September 13 2013 07:42 Osiccor wrote: Instead of talking about the improbable, what are naniwa's chance that he will make it to the world final at Blizzcon which I believe is far from a sure thing.
He has to make a top 2 at IEM NY. Basically.
No; he'll only get knocked out if 5 people from the bottom 16 manage to jump up into the top 16, right?
So really, Naniwa's chances of making the global finals is the same as the chance that no more than 4 people in the bottom 16 are able to jump into the top 16. Another way to look at it is if all the big WCS point grabs are taken by people already in the top 16 (or those already ahead of Naniwa), then he should be pretty safe. In other words, cheer for Revival and above
EDIT: Actually, I think the only legitimate contenders in the bottom 16 for qualifying for the Global Finals are those still in WCS. That means: ForGG, Scarlett, HyuN, KangHo, MMA, and Welmu. That's 6 players. Also, First and TLO, while knocked out of WCS, are still close enough to Naniwa that they could overtake him if they place really highly (like 1st, or two 2nd place finishes) in Bucharest and NYC. But if we just take the players still in WCS, that's 6 players that need to do well in WCS. I think odds are that fewer than 5 of them will end up making deep runs.
6 players from 3 different regions. I think it likely they can beat Naniwa's points if you consider how fucking weighted the season finals are in terms of points.