EPTYou're Telling Me There's a Chance - WCS points at DreamHa…
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trada
Germany347 Posts
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bduddy
United States1326 Posts
On September 13 2013 06:59 Nerchio wrote: Is that the first thing you do whenever you click on a topic?Ctrl + F : Nerchio 1 record : "Logout: Nerchio" What an awful article! Edit: Although i have to admit those notes about their chances are hilarous | ||
Liquid`TLO
Germany767 Posts
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jubil
United States2602 Posts
 "The chance of Undead beating an Orc who only gets claw drops." | ||
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Akaann
Switzerland82 Posts
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Kevin_Sorbo
Canada3217 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:10 bduddy wrote: Is that the first thing you do whenever you click on a topic? LOL good one  on a more serious topic : gogogo Flashhh!! The post about all the Jaedong-Flash finals 'til the end of the world is fine by me!! | ||
stuchiu
Fiddler's Green42661 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:15 jubil wrote: Absolutely hilarious; though I do need someone to please explain for me the one about Grubby Undead vs Orc was the single most imbalanced matchup in WC3. And claw drops is the single best drop for an orc player to get. | ||
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heartlxp
United States1258 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:15 jubil wrote: Absolutely hilarious; though I do need someone to please explain for me the one about Grubby could be wrong but i think it's referring to Orc hero Blademaster that gets "claw" drops as items from neutral creeps in game, because that hero already has the highest DPS, any additional "claws" make him just rip through your army | ||
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TheRabidDeer
United States3806 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:11 Liquid`TLO wrote: haha wax you're suck a dick :D Freudian slip by TLO | ||
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Jacmert
Canada1709 Posts
Wow, good catch! And that's pretty close to (or exactly?) the original meaning of a Freudian slip, too! | ||
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carlfish
Australia57 Posts
At the end of season 1, the cut-off for 16th place was 1,250. At the end of season 2, the cut-off for 16th place was 2,250. This means it's realistic to assume the season 3 cut-off will be between 3,000 and 3,500. This means: INnoVation, Mvp, aLive, Soulkey, Polt, Jaedong, Bomber and HerO are going to Blizzcon. TaeJa, sOs and Revival might want a couple more points just to be sure, but odds are they're going too. NaNiwa needs at least 300 points from a non-WCS result to realistically have a chance, twice that to be comfortable. Maru, duckdeok, Rain and MC all really want 1,000 more points to feel comfortable, which means placing top 5 in their respective leagues. ForGG and Scarlett need top 5 finishes (top 6 for Scarlett) in their respective regions to sneak over the line, and a first-round win in the season finals to cement it. Anyone below Scarlett needs a miracle, or to be a credible candidate for a deep run into the season finals. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17729 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:35 carlfish wrote: To put it another way: At the end of season 1, the cut-off for 16th place was 1,250. At the end of season 2, the cut-off for 16th place was 2,250. This means it's realistic to assume the season 3 cut-off will be between 3,000 and 3,500. This means: Mvp, aLive, Soulkey, Polt, Jaedong, Bomber and HerO are going to Blizzcon. TaeJa, sOs and Revival might want a couple more points just to be sure, but odds are they're going too. NaNiwa needs at least 300 points from a non-WCS result to realistically have a chance, twice that to be comfortable. Maru, duckdeok, Rain and MC all really want 1,000 more points to feel comfortable, which means placing top 5 in their respective leagues. ForGG and Scarlett need top 5 finishes (top 6 for Scarlett) in their respective regions to sneak over the line, and a first-round win in the season finals to cement it. Anyone below Scarlett needs a miracle, or to be a credible candidate for a deep run into the season finals. I can confirm this is a really accurate and simple way to look at it. | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
ForGG is in Dreamhack AND still in WCS. Sitting at 17th in points he is the most dangerous player too those just barely in at the moment. Playing in EU helps his odds as well. MMA is a decent amount back, but he is still in WCS and is in DH as well. Not within immediate striking distance like ForGG, but a good run here could set up a deep run in the impossible to predict WCS EU. Stardust is much farther back, but is in WCS and has proven he can win European events. He needs some excellent finishes, but he's still in it, making him a longshot as well. Oz is in a similar boat to Stardust but plays in a harder WCS region. Still enough to be a longshot as well. Flash not listed here in Longshots makes me a little bit surprised, considering he only has 900 points but is still in WCS, is in DH, and is rumored to possibly attend IEM. That fits "longshot" definition to me. | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17729 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:43 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: Nice article, but since you made this, Im expecting a "not-such longshots" article. ForGG is in Dreamhack AND still in WCS. Sitting at 17th in points he is the most dangerous player too those just barely in at the moment. Playing in EU helps his odds as well. MMA is a decent amount back, but he is still in WCS and is in DH as well. Not within immediate striking distance like ForGG, but a good run here could set up a deep run in the impossible to predict WCS EU. Stardust is much farther back, but is in WCS and has proven he can win European events. He needs some excellent finishes, but he's still in it, making him a longshot as well. Oz is in a similar boat to Stardust but plays in a harder WCS region. Still enough to be a longshot as well. Flash not listed here in Longshots makes me a little bit surprised, considering he only has 900 points but is still in WCS, is in DH, and is rumored to possibly attend IEM. That fits "longshot" definition to me. I got some numbers coming soon that you might like. | ||
The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:44 Die4Ever wrote: I got some numbers coming soon that you might like. are you using aligulac this time around?! :D | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:35 carlfish wrote: To put it another way: At the end of season 1, the cut-off for 16th place was 1,250. At the end of season 2, the cut-off for 16th place was 2,250. This means it's realistic to assume the season 3 cut-off will be between 3,000 and 3,500. This means: INnoVation, Mvp, aLive, Soulkey, Polt, Jaedong, Bomber and HerO are going to Blizzcon. TaeJa, sOs and Revival might want a couple more points just to be sure, but odds are they're going too. NaNiwa needs at least 300 points from a non-WCS result to realistically have a chance, twice that to be comfortable. Maru, duckdeok, Rain and MC all really want 1,000 more points to feel comfortable, which means placing top 5 in their respective leagues. ForGG and Scarlett need top 5 finishes (top 6 for Scarlett) in their respective regions to sneak over the line, and a first-round win in the season finals to cement it. Anyone below Scarlett needs a miracle, or to be a credible candidate for a deep run into the season finals. I agree with the small exception of MMA, who is behind Scarlett, but it wouldnt be that big an upset if he won EU. (lost in semis season 2). Him winning would put him at a minimum of 3650 going into season finals. This is a (the only) scenario other than what you have stated that would NOT include a deep season finals run and would not really be a "miracle". Also according to the last prediction I say that Die4Ever ran, MMA has above 20% chance. p.s. TY to Die4Ever for work on simulator! | ||
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Die4Ever
United States17729 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:52 The_Templar wrote: by the way, I'm cheering for Ryung to qualify now just so this article looks silly are you using aligulac this time around?! :D Yes. I'm doing some test runs now and tweaking some things so it'll be ready for after the GSL ro16 group selections. I'm gonna post the results of a run soon, and another one after the group selections are done. I also have it doing random brackets for Dreamhack and IEM. Dreamhack is ok cause I just use the list of 32 notable players. IEM is kinda weird because it just picks random players who either have over 1000 WCS points or are still in premier league, otherwise I consider them to have no chance even with a win in IEM and Dreamhack. | ||
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Dragoonstorm7
United States599 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:44 Die4Ever wrote: I got some numbers coming soon that you might like. Ah yes you were adding in DH and IEM to your simulator right?  Looking forward to new data TY for awesome work! | ||
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The_Templar
your Country52797 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:54 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: I agree with the small exception of MMA, who is behind Scarlett, but it wouldnt be that big an upset if he won EU. (lost in semis season 2). Him winning would put him at a minimum of 3650 going into season finals. This is a (the only) scenario other than what you have stated that would NOT include a deep season finals run and would not really be a "miracle". Also according to the last prediction I say that Die4Ever ran, MMA has above 20% chance. p.s. TY to Die4Ever for work on simulator! read the last line, I would say he's a "credible candidate for a deep run into the season finals" | ||
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Dodgin
Canada39254 Posts
On September 13 2013 09:42 Die4Ever wrote: I can confirm this is a really accurate and simple way to look at it. Wouldn't there be diminishing returns on how much the minimum requirement increases each season? Assuming the season finals player pool is significantly different each time it shouldn't bump up the minimum by the same amount each season. At that rate with that logic by the end of season 5 (if it existed) the minimum would be 5500-6000 points, which would require all of the top 16 players to consistently earn 1000+ points each season, with no room for error as far as upsets go. | ||
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